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RatherBe
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Posts posted by RatherBe
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Malik Murphy committing to Sark and Texas will have repercussions with California recruiting. A big domino that other recruits will look at. Let’s see how it plays out with another hand fighting for Cali recruits.
I’m of the theory that you need to take at least one QB every recruiting cycle. It’s just too important of a position not to. The good (and bad) news is that the 2022 class will be the most inaccurately scouted one in quite some time. No high school football, at least in the fall, in a lot of places. The summer camp circuit where underclassmen QB build their reputations were curtailed. It doesn’t have to be a borderline 5-star recruit for the Ducks this year, there will be some late riser; Thompson skyrocketed up the rankings this time of year. -
This was my first season of attempting to grade every play of every game. A time consuming effort, but with work from home and with everything shut down I figured this would be an interesting endeavor. I have some familiarity with the concept from my days of being an intern, what seems like an eternity ago. But I wasn’t there to grade, I was there to cut so the actual football people could see hours of footage in minutes. A lot more difficult when you only have the broadcast angles. I’m still a stats guy, but this the curious case of Mr. Shough is the perfect example of where stats fall short.
Shough did play slightly worse as the season went on, but the thing is... he was always playing bad. The difference was difficulty of opponent, the advantages of a novel offense, and just plain luck. Combine those things with a loss of confidence and you have a statistically great QB who didn’t look like those statistics. Even when everything was rolling I can’t say Shough was great. He’s missing too many tools to be a consistently good QB in this offense.
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11 hours ago, Mudslide said:
Based upon the supportive atmosphere frequently mentioned by recruits, I would suggest that dealing with young athletes' emotions and their approach to performance is a real strength of MC and the rest of the coaching staff. I know from personal experience that some athletes are harder and more critical of themselves than anyone can deal with.
Regarding (once again) "coaching up" the players...these are talented coaches who have won everywhere they've been...have been coaching for years...and know how to get the most out of the team. Without inside knowledge of team operations it is arrogant for us to criticize that aspect of coaching. But heck...I guess that's the job of fans.
Now in-game play selection and management...that is a horse of a different color......
I gotta agree with Mud on Cristobal being good with managing the emotions of young men. It’s one of Mario’s strengths and one that we desperately needed after Helfrich lost the locker room. If you ask former players to contrast Chip and Helf that will be the number one answer, guys wanted to play for Chip and showing up for Helf was a whole different story.
I think we’ve seen a few instances of the team failing to show up for Mario, but other than Arizona 2018 they’ve battled every game. That’s a sign that the players care for the coach and are motivated. The ol’ run through a brick wall cliche. -
1977 is the magic year for how far back one must go for Washington to be ahead of Oregon. 43 years. Yet they still pretend like this is a recent development.
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Colors can’t determine the outcome, except for in football when wearing all grey. That’s an automatic L. I like to think I’m a reasonable person who doesn’t believe in such things, but the Cal game this past season was the proof I needed.
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I’m actually the person who made that map. If you look at the bottom of the graphic it says RatherBeYachting. I was going to tweet it out after posting it to Reddit, but that account did it first. I don’t mind, my graphics/drawings/etc always wind up being used by others, but I specifically made a note if people wish to use it to please credit accordingly. Whatcha gonna do. The point still stands, quite a showing for Oregon, especially when you consider the second or third ranked players they pulled in from talent rich states.
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For those who haven’t seen the comments from Henry’s dad he basically says Pac-12 football sucks and he wants his son to stay in the SEC. Bama in particular. Oregon was mentioned as a maybe if he can’t find something in the SEC. Not surprising, considering what landed Henry at Tennessee and in the portal, but it sounds like an auction.
I’d love a defender like him, but not if it comes with NCAA sanctions. I think most people understand that extra benefits are involved in recruiting. They just aren’t as brazen about it usually. -
3 hours ago, UtahDuck said:
That is not how HIPPA works... HIPPA prevents healthcare professionals from sharing "sensitive patient health information". So DR's, nurses any medical professionals and health insurance billing and so forth.
If you share information with as Flowe did with a previous acquaintance and that person leaks or spreads the information they are not breaking HIPPA.
Thank you, as someone who has worked with this stuff it’s frustrating to see people think HIPAA applies to non-professionals. You can tweet that your friend has a broken hand, assuming you aren’t a medical professional involved in their treatment.
College student privacy is protected by FERPA, once again something Justin Flowe’s high school coach is not bound by.-
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Bill Connelly’s SP+ is a predictive analytic rating. Historically, it has not been friendly to Oregon and it’s surprising to see. Like the good analytics it’s more accurate than the eye test, but it’s not the gold standard.
ESPN’s FPI is much better. It is one of the ten or so analytics systems that has consistently beaten Vegas’ formula. If there is one mainstream analytic to keep an eye on that would be it.-
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1 hour ago, UtahDuck said:
I think you miss the point pretty frequently in this statement.
1. Undersized- First undersized QB's are doing pretty well in the NFL and College right now.
2. I don't think I'd call him 'Undersized'. He needs the weight room at 190 but so do a number of players when the get to college.
3. "Very Helfrichean", I actually think Helfrich/Chip were quite apt at Evaluating players. Their problem was in their disdain for recruiting as a whole.
4. I make no remark towards their roster as a whole because I am not overly familiar but I do know that Oregon Offered and wanted WR Puka Nacua pretty bad.
5. No disagreement, Jon Donovan is a bad hire, but frankly UW hasn't had a good OC since Smith went to Oregon State. I think Donovan may actually be an improvement over Hamden still. You should look at who was hired for DC... now that is very Helrichean...
1. Undersized QBs are still the exception, not the rule. There are three QBs shorter than Huard who are NFL starters: Kyler Murray, Tua, and Russell Wilson. Two of those make up for it with speed, Russ ran the 40 in 4.53 and undoubtedly Murray is faster. Tua I make no case for. Maybe Baker Mayfield as well, although he was listed the same height but 30 pounds heavier.
2. Sam Huard is listed on UW’s roster at a generous 6’1” 190 - almost everyone shows up at the NFL combine shorter and lighter than their listed measurements. At that height there aren’t a lot of QBs who don’t have wheels. It doesn’t mean he can’t be a great college QB, not as important in college, but statistically it lowers his chances of success considerably; that’s just the data and not my opinion.
3. For Helfrichean QB management I didn’t mention Chip. I did point out the parallel of highly ranked QB recruits who didn’t pan out. Jake Rodrigues, Morgan Mahalak, and Travis Jonsen contributed the same result for Oregon as those guys did for Washington.
4. I’m pretty familiar with Washington’s roster and their skill players are severely lacking. Their OL and DL are better than ours at the moment, but everywhere else it’s a blowout. Other than Otton at TE Nacua is their most high ceiling skill guy, and there have been rumors of him transferring. UW’s RBs (McGrew, Pleasant, Newton) have combined for 1886 yards at 4.6 yards per carry. To put that in perspective, Oregon fans have been complaining about running backs and Travis Dye has 1840 yards at 5.9 yards per carry while CJ has 2523 yards at 5.4 yards per carry. Their WRs are in the same boat, their combined stats are less than Jaylon Redd’s.
5. That we can agree on. Jimmy Lake’s hires have been less than inspiring. Hiring Jon Donovan and his outdated offense is more confusing to me, at least Bob Gregory has been a successful DC in this conference and Jimmy wants control of the defense. On offense the teams Washington played in 2020 all had their best or second best defensive performance against Washington in yards per play. -
That’s interesting, I just saw Woodiel’s name two days ago because he took a job at Louisville as quality control or something of that nature. In his time as a GA at Oregon there was a lot of love for Woodiel. When he left the twitter thread had the Sewells, Lemiuex, Throckmorton, plus others thanking and praising Woodiel.
We’ve heard rumors of Cristobal being difficult to work for, but that’s now two former staff members in Chance and Woodiel coming back for lateral moves from another P-5. -
We love the Huard family at Oregon! Hopefully Sam becomes as memorable as his dad Damon is to us. Washington is betting it all on an undersized lefty who has his recruiting ranking as a placeholder for years.
Washington has really missed in their QB evaluations. Yankoff, Haener, Sirmon, Garbers. Haener has actually been lighting it up at Fresno, but the other three were 4-star QB recruits who didn’t do anything, very Helfrichean. Dylan Morris is average at best. Their young WRs have been mostly overrated busts and all of their RBs wouldn’t even sniff playing time at Oregon. Add their mind numbingly bad hire of an OC in Jon Donovan and this is just is the start of another decade of dominance. -
I could possibly volunteer some time. Let me know what’s needed.
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1 hour ago, David Marsh said:
Where I criticize the Taggart system with Herbert is really in how Taggart wanted to run Herbert more up the middle rather than more opportunistic run plays. I would have to check to see what was going on in the Cal game in 2017 when Herbert broke his collar bone.
But the biggest problem with the Taggart system is its overall lack of half time adjustments. So Herbert would be wasted in the second half of games. Granted, that was really the biggest problem with the Arroyo offense as well.
Though I do agree that the loss of supporting cast members was what really hurt Herbert. 2015 was really the last time Oregon had a stellar cast of receivers. Mitchell was good but he was really the only receiver that was any good in 2018. Really looking forward to seeing what this new receiving corp can do!
Not trying to be hostile, or defend any snakes. I just don’t agree with us knowing enough about Taggart’s second half adjustments while having Herbert or his offense being any more dangerous for a QB.
Let’s break it down. There was one bad second half where the offense got too conservative. The Nebraska game, where a 42-14 lead ended 42-35. There were three blowouts (Southern Utah, Wyoming, Oregon State) where it was garbage time for the second half. Two close games (Arizona State and Arizona) where Oregon out scored their opponents in the second half. Not enough of a sample size to say Taggart had bad second half adjustments with Herbert as his QB.
As far as having the QB run up the middle, that is a judgment call. Willie’s offense had fewer runs for Herbert than Helfrich’s offense did, statistically. But QB run frequency doesn’t equal more injuries, there have been several studies; QBs who run more are less likely to be injured and percentage wise QBs are more likely to be injured on a drop back. Herbert’s collarbone was on this, looks like a read option:
and Herbert fighting for the TD is what left him vulnerable.
I do think Willie was not the right coach for Oregon in the long term. I do think he’s a good offensive mastermind, at least compared to Arroyo. We’ll never know for sure, because of Herbert’s injury and Braxton Burmeister’s pure, unadulterated awfulness both at Oregon and Va Tech. I would have loved to see Herbert with this offense, both the skill guys and the Moorhead offensive system.
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I saved about 100 screenshots from twitter leading up to the draft, after the draft, and once Herbert started playing. I thought I’d have to hang on to them for a few years, but they became cold takes pretty quickly.
If anything it would be easier to name Herbert’s defenders over his detractors: Gil Brandt, Mike of Rivals, former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum, and the well known around draft time anonymous scout.
But those are media guys. They exist to entertain. What did NFL execs say to NFL dot com? 7/12 preferred Herbert over Tua. One was adamant that Herbert is going to be the best, has the highest ceiling, and is the safest pick - including Burrow.
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2 hours ago, David Marsh said:
Herbert had a pretty good freshman year with the Helfrich offensive system. The Taggart and then Arroyo systems didn't do him any favors.
Herbert was great in Helf’s system, but I disagree on the Taggart system failing. I think Justin fared quite well in it. That first half against Nebraska was almost perfect: 19/21 for 312 yards and 3 TDs. In those six full games Willie called the plays in Justin had 30% of his career rushing yards, 40% of his career rushing TDs before the Rose Bowl, a 12:3 TD:INT ratio, and four of his top-10 passer rating games. Willie was not a great coach, but he had a good offense and could call plays. And I’m not one to praise Willie Taggart.
I think just as big of a factor as the offensive play calling and system was what happened to the skill talent. The opposite of Tua. Losing Royce, Kani Benoit, TBJ, Carrington, Chuck Nelson, Pharaoh, Johnny Mundt, and Jalen Brown from 2016 to 2018. In 2018 Herbert had Dillon Mitchell, Breeland, and the dropsy bunch. Even Mitchell wasn’t always reliable although overall he was great.
I’ll maintain forever that the lack of skill players is equally as important as Arroyo’s stale offense in holding back Herbert. By 2019 JJ3 and Redd improved, plus Juwan Johnson and Mycah Pittman showed up. Even Bralon Addison and Spencer Webb helped. But no one was ever healthy at the same time. Breeland was great and went down. Juwan and Pittman missed half the year. If you gave Herbert the 2012 Oregon skill players it would be a very different narrative.
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13 hours ago, Drake said:
The problem with trying to be “competitive” with other Universities, and the upgrades made to athletic facilities, is that $50 million isn’t that much. Didn’t we just spend $12m on a new video board and sound system?
Kind of a crazy amount of $$$ to spend to be able to watch TV a few weekends per year....lol
I think the $50 million is part of a $150 million project to renovate the rest of Potato Salad Stadium. They only did half last time, so it looks pretty bad. $100 million private donations and $50 million public funds. Can you imagine the outcry from UOMatters and everyone else if Oregon spent $50 million of general budget money in this climate on a capital project for sports?
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Buckner is the clear cut choice. Not a lot of sleepers in a class with 19 4-stars. Buckner was both a USA Today and MaxPreps All-American. His productivity is second to none. Dad played a dozen years in the NFL and had been the DL coach for a few franchises. Brandon won DL MVP honors at The Opening regional. Best player on the best team in Arizona. That’s a 4-star resume.
But, he’s 6’1” 230 and plays DE. I don’t know what his athleticism level is, but it must not be great if there are questions about him playing OLB. There have been successful DE with similar measurements: Dwight Freeney was amazing. As was Nick Reed for us. But in a modern 3-4 that size is less than ideal. I’ll be the first to admit that the biggest factors in football success are things that can be quantified, like size and speed.
I think Buckner is just too productive to not make a difference. It might be too much of a reach to say he has star potential, but maybe he can reach Kenny Rowe levels. Rowe had 16 TFL and 7 sacks his senior year. If Buckner can deliver even half that its a major coup for the lowest rated guy in the class.
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2 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:
So, just what does a Director of Player Development actually do ?? Are we talking physical development, academic development, football knowledge development ??
What is it I'm missing here ??
It’s basically a mentor. I looked up the job description(s) some colleges have posted and to make it more blunt: they show them around, tell them what kind of people to avoid, make sure they know how to manage their time, responsibilities, and money. Helps them set up a future outside of football. A new thing is help with social media.
A lot of time and money is invested into recruiting, coaching, training, and keeping these guys academically eligible. Colleges want to protect their investment so their star WR doesn’t crash into a McDonald’s drive through at 2AM. Plus, it’s the right thing to do to have guys get all the help they can get.
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It’s the same type of stratification in the other non-SEC conferences when it comes to talent disparity. If anything the Pac-12 is finally catching up.
It’s also not a problem or a bad thing for the other conferences. The difference is that they are able to have one team be dominant. Part of it is that the ACC and SEC only play eight conference games, and the Big-12 basically does the same since Kansas is part of the round robin. The eight conference game season means you could have up to 14 fewer losses for the SEC and ACC, while Kansas usually takes the bullet for the other nine teams in the Big-12.
Meanwhile, the Pac-12 has amazing parity. Only expanded since 2011 and by 2018 each team had a turn winning the South division. The North has had three different champs, so 75% of the teams had a division title in the first nine years. This kind of parity doesn’t help the top programs like Oregon. It would have been in Oregon’s best interest to have Jayden Daniels warning the bench at USC instead of beating Oregon with long passes.
It should also be noted that the Pac-12 is having an outlier recruiting cycle, only 20 blue chips between the bottom ten programs. Maybe it’s the start of a new trend. Outside of the top-2 programs 2020 had 40, 2019 had 28, 2018 had 33 blue chip recruits. It’s probably no surprise, but over the last decade the number of blue chip recruits per conference correlates with the numbers of players drafted per team. The usual list is #1 SEC 2 Big Ten 3 Pac-12 4 ACC 5 Big-12. The Big Ten and Pac-12 trade places some years, same with the ACC and Big-12.
ACCClemson: three 5-stars, 14 4-stars
Miami: two 5-stars, 11 4-stars
UNC: one five-star, 11 4-stars
Florida State: seven 4-stars
Other 10 teams combined: 14 4-stars
Big-12
Oklahoma: one 5-star, 11 4-stars
Texas: one 5-star, nine 4-stars
Other eight teams combined: 11 4-stars
Big Ten
Ohio State: five 5-stars, 13 4-stars
Michigan: one 5-star, 11 4-stars
Other 12 teams combined: two 5-stars, 34 4-stars-
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As an FYI, Wilner’s pick to win the North in 2020 was Cal.
Wilner went through a brief stretch where he didn’t hate on Oregon, but it’s back to the same routine. His AP top-25 is usually a comedic performance. For a while this past year he had 0-1 Arizona State ranked ahead of 2-0 Oregon.
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On 1/31/2021 at 3:40 PM, EzDucksIt said:
Rather Be,
I love it, kind of what I saw too. ISM was asked to take the kind of role that Dye held for three years, his first being a learning year. ISM was no Dye but he is a stud, just not as vocal as Dye. Love Coach Aliotti, imagine HIM with the talent we have now. BUT he put that talent into the NFL- Eddie Pleasant, Jordan, Buckner, Paysinger, Chung, Bird, Alonso the list goes on. That is coaching up. He had great help from Pellum, Neal and Coach Azz. This kind of results shows a recruit that if they show up and excel they can put you in position to succeed at the next level.
The greatest thing to happen to Nick Aliotti’s legacy is Don Pellum and Brady Hoke. He went from Allowalotti to we’ll never take you for granted ever again status in three years.
I think you and I aren’t the only ones who would love to see what he could dial up with talent all over the board instead of just some great recruits and making do with the rest. The hallmark of those defenses was the relentless aggressiveness and leaving the DBs to fend for themselves. The result? From 2007-2013 they were top ten in the country in takeaways in four times, including #1 (in 2012) and #2 - and only once outside the top-25 at #34.
PS: no disrespect to Don Pellum the LB coach, just 2015 Don Pellum the DC. Even that wasn’t all on him as it was aalso a general staff failure to recruit well enough.
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12 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:
For some reason I haven't thought of our linebacking group as the defense's problem for 2021. With all of the much hailed "stars" we have back there and in there second season, who would think it.
I have always thought our DL was the weak spot not liinebacker. Henry To'oto'o sounds like a great get for the Ducks and it would be good to have him in the linebacker house but saying he is the fix for our defensive woe's might be a stretch.
I am of the same opinion. The LBs were not great. Particularly Dru Mathis and early season Mase Funa were struggling, and Noah was too fast for his own good overrunning plays. But the major problem was the DL. They played good against Cal and great against USC - I’m a broken record but it was Jordon Scott and Austin Faoliu. They started Dorlus and Kristian Williams against USC. Even though the LBs are not the weakness you don’t say no to a guy like Henry T - that’s a proven difference maker.
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Jimmy Lake is a less accomplished Mark Helfrich.
Did promoting the LB coach to replace a great DC work for you, Mark Helfrich?
Oregon close to hiring Heyward's Replacement
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Marcel Yates is a great hire.
2016-19 Arizona DC
2014-15 Boise State DC
2012-13 Texas A&M co-DC
2003-11 Boise State secondary/CBs
Yates also looks like he can recruit. A handful of 4-stars at A&M and got Boise State their highest ranked recruit ever: 86th overall, their next highest is 235th overall.