Jon Joseph

Great discussion that has the folks in Bristol smiling. What the Grapevine Gurus have to say matters on December 7th, I don't see a Ducks Day of PO Infamy heading OBD's way. I'm pulling hard for Oregon to make the PO because I'm a Fanatic, the recruiting bump from being a team you can count on to get you to the PO, the chance to win it all, even if you finish in fourth place in the Big Ten in the regular season 🙃, the millions of dollars for the conference for every conference team in the field, and the stamp of further approval on the Oregon brand and consequent income from merchandise sales. A win on the road over the PO committee's No. 20 team will, of course, help the PO cause. Unless it's a blowout loss, a Ducks loss may put OBD on PO life support, but not on the critical list. Oregon, with the 18th most difficult remaining schedule in college football, according to Massey, is in the playoffs with a 10-2 record. The Indiana loss from the committee's perspective is, except for the Texas loss at Ohio State, as good as it gets. A competitive road loss to a top 20 team will not be viewed as a bad, PO-disqualifying loss. The Big Ten Championship game will feature No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana. Ohio State will not lose to Purdue, UCLA, or Rutgers. This Michigan team will not defeat an Ohio State team that will not ground it out as it inexplicably did last season. This Michigan team will not be able to disrupt the Ohio State passing game and score enough points to win the game. Penn State could keep it close against Indiana, but the Hoosiers should prevail. How about this item Cig can use to have his team come out smokin' 😁, the Hoosiers have never won a road game against Penn State, and are 2-25 vs. the Nits. Win this game and after a late as it can get bye, I don't see Indiana losing at Purdue. USC is odds-on to defeat Northwestern Friday night. Same for UW at Wisconsin on Saturday. Minnesota is 6-3 and bowl eligible. I don't see the Gophers defeating the Ducks, but with a finish at Northwestern and Wisconsin at home, the Gophers could finish 8-4. After the Wisconsin game, UW hosts Purdue and then plays at UCLA. UW is odds-on to be 9-2 when Oregon visits, and with ranked SEC, ACC, and B12 teams playing one another, UW will be ranked higher than 23rd the final week of the regular season. One of Iowa or USC will, of course, have a loss in Week 12 when the Hawkeyes play the Trojans in LA. Iowa finishes with a game against Michigan State, and then is on the road against a crippled Nebraska team, and should finish no worse than 8-4. Big Ten teams that go 9-3 will finish in the committee's top 25. Seven B1G teams are ranked, two behind the SEC, two more than the ACC, which somehow has five teams ranked, and four more than the B12. Any B1G team that finishes with two or fewer losses is in the PO field. Hammer the Hawkeyes!

College Football News Likes OBD 24 to 17 https://collegefootballnews.com/college-football/oregon-vs-iowa-prediction-preview-2025

Here's hoping Joel is full of Klatt! 🤬 Who’s Likely to Climb Into the CFP — and Who Could Fall Out? | FOX Sports

A few Foxy takes on the 1st ranking - 4 Takeaways From the First CFP Rankings Release of 2025

OBD wins 70% of the simulated games. So, simply win. 😁 Oregon vs. Iowa football prediction: Where the experts see an edge

Iowa has a solid run game, but is last in the B1G in passing. Load that box! YardbarkerOregon has a clear path to victory against Iowa but it wi...When Oregon travels to Iowa City this weekend, the Ducks know exactly what kind of team they’ll face. The Hawkeyes have built an offense rooted in physicality and patience, utilizing a run-first appro

USA Today has grades for the committee's first ranking. OBD at No. 9 gets the committee a C. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2025/11/05/college-football-playoff-rankings-grades-snubs/87094619007/?utm_source=usatoday-sports-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usatbaseline&utm_

Metrics? Notre Dame, with a loss to 2-loss Miami and a worse SOR than several 2-loss teams, is at No. 10, the highest-ranked 2-loss team. Baylor AD and committee chair Mack Rhodes went out of his way to explain that Oregon was dropped three spots from its AP ranking (Rob, cancel that series with Baylor!) because of its schedule to date, while justifying ND's ranking on the Irish looking good in the eyes of the committee. AP NewsCollege Football Playoff committee makes clear it will us...The College Football Playoff selection committee has revealed its first rankings, with Ohio State taking the top spot.

Not quarreling with the excellent take, but We Need the Dues! Every team in the PO field means millions of dollars for the conference and a nice payday for every conference team. I think come 2030 and a new media deal, and as is the case in the ACC today, teams that make the CFB playoff and CBB tourney will be keeping most, if not all, of the postseason revenue. OBD's loss in the 2nd round of last season's playoff, 😒, still meant millions of dollars for the conference. As did Indiana's 1st round loss, and Penn State and Ohio State brought in B1G bank. Interestingly, teams that advance to the champ game make the same money as the teams eliminated in the semifinals.

Courtesy of Stewart Mandel, wouldn't this be an interesting dilemma? 🤬 The last PO spot comes down to a 10-2 Ole Miss, that played thin air OOC, and a 3-loss Texas team that played Ohio State? If the Committee were presented with this and chose Ole Miss, shouldn't every P4 OOC game be canceled?

The home team manages ticket sales for 1st round PO games. The Playoff Poohbahs manage ticket sales thereafter. The home team must allocate 3500 tickets for the visiting team, including not more than 500 (!) for the visiting team's band. The number of Vols fans in Columbus last season for the 1st round game against Ohio State was an anomaly. Tennessee fans cracked the ticket sales code and volunteered to watch a beatdown of their mighty SEC team.

Notre Dame's two losses came at Miami, no longer a stellar loss, and at home versus Texas A&M. ND did not and does not play Michigan this season. Michigan lost at Oklahoma and SC. ND plays at Pitt after the Panthers are off this week, while ND plays Navy. Under Pat Narduzzi, Pitt has a solid record in Acrisure Stadium, which used to be Heinz Stadium, which replaced Three Rivers Stadium. 🤔The Panthers, undefeated since replacing the starting QB, will be sky high for this game. Pitt has a solid defense. 6th nationally against the run, giving up 80.9 yards a game. If Pitt can hold down ND's run game, it has a good chance of knocking ND out of the PO. This is a PO elimination game for ND. Pitt with wins over Georgia Tech and Miami, would finish 7-1 in conference, with a chance of playing in the ACC champ game. If OBD has a close loss against Iowa or UW on the road, or a close loss to an SC team that finishes with two losses, I double down on my call of a 10-2 Oregon team being in the PO field. Indiana will finish the regular season 12-0 and will be ranked in the committee's top two before the champ game. The loss to Indiana will continue to be a 'good' loss. The committee will value wins over teams it has ranked as of now, especially road wins, and will not ding OBD for a close loss to a team it has ranked. 3-loss B1G teams will be in the committee's final top 25. The committee has over one-third of the B1G conference teams ranked, two fewer than the SEC, with many SEC teams having tough games to be played. Two fewer ranked teams than the SEC, but three more than the ACC and the B12. The committee does not believe the B1G is only three teams deep. If OBD wins this Saturday, the loser of the BYU at Texas Tech game will be ranked behind Oregon next week. As of today, the ACC, without an upset in its champ game, is looking like a one-bid conference. Virginia's loss to NC State does not count in the ACC standings (🤪), but it counts with the committee. UVA is far from a sure thing vs. Wake and VA Tech, and on the road at Duke. Vandy plays Tennessee, so Vandy could have a 3rd loss, or Tennessee a 4th loss. A+M is at Missouri this Saturday. Odds have Mizzou losing its third game. 2-loss Texas has games left at Georgia and vs A&M, and could finish with three or four losses. The Longhorns' close loss at Ohio State and its brand name give Texas the best chance in the SEC to make the PO with three losses. A&M is undefeated, and Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama have a loss. Georgia has come close to three defeats this season. All other SEC teams have two or more losses. Bama came this close to a loss at South Carolina. Ole Miss has the easiest remaining schedule, but Ole Miss defeated Wazzu in Oxford by three points. None of these teams is invincible, and I think playing only eight conference games matters to the committee, especially the three former coaches on the committee. The SEC will place four teams in the field, perhaps five if Notre Dame goes down. The B1G will have at least three teams in the field, Ohio State and Indiana, and at least one 2-loss team from SC, Iowa, Michigan, Washington, or Oregon. I believe OBD still has a PO Mulligan. Of course, it would be nice for OBD to make it easy on the committee and its fans by going 11-1. 11-1 means a 1st round home game for the Ducks. BEAT IOWA!

Riffing on friend Geo's take on the Committee's 1st ranking reveals several 'Who Knew or Expected THIS?' games left to be played. Oklahoma - at No. 4 Bama, No. 18 Mizzou, and a side order of LSU. Texas - at No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 A&M. Georgia - No. 13 Texas and at 17 Georgia Tech. USC - No. 20 Iowa and at No. 9 Oregon. Pitt - No. 10 Notre Dame, at No. 17 Georgia Tech, and No. 18 Miami OREGON - at No. 20 Iowa, No. 19 USC, at No. 23 Washington. You never know. In the preseason, OBD, based on prior season results, had one of the easier schedules in the B1G. Now? Heading into Week 11, OBD has one of the toughest remaining schedules of any PO contender. Great challenges present great opportunities. Win these games, plus the game against bowl-eligible Minnesota, and OBD is odds-on to host the No. 11 or 12 seeded team in the 1st round of the PO. And take a 1st round nap? Hand Kirk his 90th B1G conference loss!

Great take, Geo. Joey is most certainly squirrely. RSWSS - Rubbing Shoulders With SEC Syndrome? With 3-ranked teams and a bowl-eligible Minnesota coming up, I think a 10-2 OBD, without a blowout loss, will be in the PO field. How about going 4-0 and hosting a game in Autzen!

Here's the comparison with the latest AP Poll - SEC - 9 ranked - no change B1G - 7 ranked/ +1 - This gives OBD with 3 top 25 + Bowl eligible Minnesota, a tough as it gets finishing schedule. ACC - 5 ranked/ +1 - No. 24 Pitt is off this Saturday, then hosts 10 Notre Dame, plays at 17 Georgia Tech, and hosts, and hopefully hoists, 18 Miami. 24 Pitt has a chaos-causing PO finishing schedule. B12 - 3 ranked/ -1 Notre Dame - Ranked 10 by the committee and the AP. After sinking Navy on Saturday, beware of the next game at Pitt. No one has complained more about Notre Dame playing ball outside of a conference than Pitt's coach Pat Narduzzi. Since starting true Frosh Mason Heintschel at QB, Pitt is 4-0, 7-2 overall, 4 and 1 in the ACC, and in contention for an ACC title appearance in Charlotte and a spot in the PO. https://sports.yahoo.com/article/panthers-mason-heintschel-breaks-record-233122625.html Whole lot of PO ranking shakin' goin' on before 12/7/25. And I love where OBD is ranked now, with an excellent chance to host a home game. In order to Host - Let's Start with Hoisting and Hosing Down the Hawkeyes!