Jon Joseph

Was Stanford Steve a Math Major on The Farm? Steve has his prime numbers down - 12222 12-22-2 - I'd be embarrassed to show my face. No wonder he dresses straight out of Good Will.

Bill Connolly's SP+ and ESPN's FPI have weighed in. As Connelly notes, the Ducks have the most efficient run game in the country. Irving and James average 158.9 yards a game. Now up to a nation-leading 7.7 yards a carry. Bo Nix: Sacked only 4 times. 78% completion rate. 19-1 TD-to-Interception. #1 in pressure rate due to excellent OL pass blocking and a quick release. The Oregon D is SP+ ranked 31, up from 74 in 2022. Oregon has allowed only 18 passes of 20+ yards. The Utes are ranked 65 in rushing success but even with the improvement, the Oregon D is ranked 78 in rushing success allowed. With the advantage at QB, if Oregon can hold down the Utah run game it will not be beaten by the Utah passing attack. SP+ - OREGON by 6.3. FPI - OREGON by 7.1.

The Civil War is being played on the Friday after Thanksgiving. I expect CGD will cover one of the champ games being played on Saturday. With the B1G E Champ playing the B1G W Chump, I expect we'll see CGD in Atlanta for Georgia vs. Bama/LSU. Both the B1G and the SEC are dropping divisions next season following the ACC and soon-to-be RIP Pac-12. Thank goodness. I'd rather watch an Ohio State/Michigan rematch than either team playing Iowa. Iowa has put the 'tism' in nepotism.

On the Friday after Thanksgiving, the Civil War will draw a ton of viewers. Will OSU send their lawyers out for the coin flip?

Lee, don't fowl up. Pick Puddles.

Turn Those Machines Back On!

Winner: THE OREGON DUCKS. Score: 38-24 TOs Forced - 2 Sacks - 4 Passing 350 - Utah has given up a lot of explosive plays. I expect Troy Franklin to do some downfield damage in SLC. Bonus Pick - Lee Corso goes with Puddles. Bonus Pick 2 - At the end of the game Uncle Phil yells: 'Hell Yes!'

I can recall first hearing about 'Watergate.' The Gate that led to all of the other Gate references over what is now decades. Like Watergate, 'Signal-Stealing Gate' (SSG) is just looking worse for Michigan as details emerge. Now on campus are the NCAA, FBI, and B1G representatives. Jim Harbaugh's denial of having no knowledge of SSG is starting to ring hollow. Much like his comments regarding COVID recruiting violations that are still pending before the NCAA. The school did not wait, suspending Harbaugh from the sidelines for the 1st 3 games of the season. The central figure in the investigation, Connor Stalion (is life a movie?) a 28-year-old Naval Academy graduate, whose parents both graduated from Michigan and a Captain in the Marine Corps, is alleged to have attended 35 games at 17 stadiums over the last few seasons. Stalion's has been suspended with pay. B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti has had an interesting first year on the job. He had to clean up the media negotiation mess that Kevin Warren left behind. He had to use his influence with Fox to bring Oregon and Washington on board, albeit at an initial discount. He faced a long-tenured B1G coach getting fired for hazing and another coach being terminated for sexual impropriety. Welcome aboard. We know that the NCAA has never concerned itself with justice delayed is justice denied. The College Football Playoff Committee is not authorized to take any unresolved investigation into consideration. This leaves any resolution this season up to the B1G Commissioner. Petitti has the exclusive authority to determine whether a sportsmanship violation has occurred and to impose discipline. Any discipline beyond a $10,000 fine and a 3-game suspension for involved parties, must be approved by the B1G's Executive Committee. As of today, the All-State Playoff Predictor has Ohio State with the best odds to make the playoff with Michigan having the 4th best odds. SP+ gives the B1G a 98% chance to make the playoff and a 38% chance that 2 B1G teams will be in the field. (By comparison, the Pac-12 has a 39% chance to send one team to the playoff.) What a mess! And here I thought that Puddles was joining the B1G and not the SEC?

Lee Corso, don't go fowl 2 games in a row. Show a little love for your favorite fowl, Puddles.

Beam Me Up!

The team with the most successful 4th down conversions since 2021, is Georgia. How often do you see Georgia blitz? Not often. Jim Knowles at Ohio State reined in his blitzing at Ohio State and the Buckeyes D has measurably improved in 2023. Oregon without a boatload of blitzing is getting a lot of pressure on the QB. Cam Ward was sacked 6 times last week. Blitzing a guy like Ward would have opened up his opportunities to run the ball. I have no beef at all with DL's philosophy on D. On the road, on O, I would like to see him take the points.

YES! Considering the experience of the new OL, most definitely. A great job. 4 sacks given up to date.

Thank you, Darren. I always enjoy your takes. BTW, Riley is 0-3 in playoff games. Little Game Lincoln? There is no way Caleb is the #1 pick if he quits on his team. His agent who has a stake in the game knows this and will advise Caleb, if it even crosses Caleb's mind, not to quit. The rookie money for a 1st round draft pick is significantly higher than it is for players taken later in the 1st round. And next season, Caleb will not be cozying up to Sherriff Boz in Fansville. (1st DJU and now Caleb. College QBs, stay away from Fansville.) IMO, I think the guy is a competitor and he will not quit. With any kind of defense, he should have scored the winning TD last Saturday just as he did against Arizona. Yes, he was petulant post-game and exhibited no class in the loss but he battled until the final possession. Addison to the NFL has hurt the Trojans wide receiver corps. Singer who was lights out at Arizona in 2022 has not come close to replacing Addison and Mario Williams's game has also fallen off. The Trojans OL which was supposed to be a strength, has dropped off. As has SC's run game without Travis Dye, who was also a weapon as a receiver. On paper, SC added studs on D but they still are coached by the Grinch Who Stole Defense. Which is on Riley. The late game roughing the passer call against "portal stud" Bear Alexander was a game changer. Bear knew it. He was crying on the Troy sideline. Nevertheless, a wounded SC will be a dangerous opponent. And IMO, Caleb will be on the field in Autzen. I'll laugh when I can laugh last.

On All Hallows Eve, the CFB rankings will turn away from the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, and all other polls, with the first release of the College Football Playoff Committee Top 25. (For these takes, all rankings shown are according to the Week 9 AP Poll.) ............................................................................................................................................................................... Based On the Remaining Schedules, Which Pac-12 Team has the Easiest Path to the Conference Champ Game? I perhaps, dwell too much on schedules. You have to play the teams on the schedule and there is no central CFB authority with the power to balance the teams' strength of schedule. CFB scheduling is ad hoc. 5 of the Top 10 Week 9 ranked teams have yet to defeat a currently ranked Top 25 team in 2023. In the preseason I complained about the send-off scheduling gift the Pac-12 was handing to UCLA. In 2023, UCLA is the beneficiary, yet again, of the California scheduling agreement, Like USC in 2022, UCLA in 2023 does not play Oregon and Washington. To date, 23.UCLA is 5-2 overall, and 2-2 in the conference. The Bruins's two losses have come against 11. Oregon State, and 13. Utah with both games played away from the Rose Bowl. The Strength of Record to date for Pac-12 champion contenders - 4. Washington, 10. Utah, 16. Oregon, 20. Oregon State, 28. USC, and 39. UCLA. Oregon, USC, and Washington have 3 games remaining against ranked conference opponents. Oregon State has 2 games remaining against ranked conference opponents. UCLA has 1 game left, versus USC in the Coliseum. I will not be surprised if a 2-loss UCLA slips into the title game in Las Vegas. Scheduling matters. ............................................................................................................................................................................. To date, Oregon has the best-balanced attack in the conference. 553 Yards Per Game. 326 Passing. 227 Rushing. #1 in the nation at 6.8 yards per run. But how do the contenders stack up on defense? Below are the current 2023 national Stop Rate Rankings, including the percentage of a team's Stop Rate success. (Stop Rate measures possessions on defense where the opposing team is forced to punt, turns the ball over, or, turns the ball over on downs.) Also shown is the number of wins vs. Week 9 Top 25 opponents. 4. UCLA - 80% - Zero 9. Utah - 76.5% - One - At 24. USC 24. Washington - 71.8% - One - Versus 8. Oregon (RATS! Or, should I say FLEAS!) 40. Oregon - 68.3% - Zero 52. Oregon State - 65.6% - Two - versus 13. Utah, and 23. UCLA 68. USC - 62% - Zero These rankings are not adjusted for the opponents' strength on offense. Yes, Oregon State has 2 Top 25 wins but OSU played a crummy out-of-conference schedule and was exposed on the road at Washington State. .............................................................................................................................................................................. Week 9 Top 25 teams on upset alert. Ranked on Ranked. 8. 6-1 Oregon -6.5 At 6-1. Utah. I believe the Ducks will prevail in SLC and end the regular season 0-6 slide versus Top 25 ranked teams on the road or at a neutral site. But the game will be a rock fight. 18. 6-1 Louisville -4.5 Vs. 20. 5-2 Duke. Duke QB Riley Leonard is day-to-day. If he plays I think Louisville could be in trouble. Other Top 25 ranked teams at risk. 11. 6-1 Oregon State -3.5 At 4-3 Arizona - If Arizona is not the best 3-loss team in the country it has to be close. Redshirt Freshman, QB Noah Fafita, has been outstanding in place of the injured starter de Laura. And this season's Wildcat team has stepped it up on defense. I am happy that Puddles will be flying to Tempe and not Tucson. 1. 7-0 Georgia -14.5 Vs. 5-2 Florida. 5-2 Tennessee lost to UF and is ranked with the same record. Why? I will not bow down to Washington, ever, but I will bow down to UGA TE Brock Bowers who is likely out for the remainder of the regular season. How will UGA fare without BB going against an improved UF QB, Grahm Mertz, who is near the top in completion percentage? 6. 7-0 Oklahoma -9.5 At 5-2 Kansas - The Sooners would sooner forget last Saturday's close win vs. UCF in Norman. Kansas has a bad defense but puts up a lot of points at home. Will Oklahoma's shaky play on defense vs. UCF continue in Lawrence? 7. 6-1 Texas -18.5 Vs. 5-2 BYU. Texas was the other of the B12 Golddust twins to have a close shave last week at Houston. Coach Sark's alma mater comes to Austin playing the best of the B12 newbies. Texas QB, Quinn Ewers is out with a shoulder injury. The Texas run game should be enough to prevail over BYU but this could be interesting. 3. 7-0 Ohio State -14.5 At 5-2 Wisconsin. The Badgers, down 18-0, scored a terrific comeback win last Saturday at Illinois. The Ohio State D and WR Marvin Harrison won a rock fight against Penn State. Will the Buckeyes suffer a letdown on the road? With Iowa hosed by the refs in its loss to Minnesota last week, Wisconsin is now in 1st place in an abysmal B1G W. I think Bucky will Jump Around before Ohio State pulls this game out late. ................................................................................................................................................................................ Utah has won 18 games in a row in SLC. The last time Oregon won in SLC was in 2016, 30-28 behind Justin Herbert's 4 2nd-half TD passes. My cardiologist is on-call for this game. Win, and Oregon could be the Playoff Committee's top-ranked 1-loss team. But we know the Committee loves 1-loss Bama, bye this week before playing LSU next Saturday, and the Texas brand matters. GO DUCKS!

8 late-season potential "Spoilers" - Ducks play 3 of the 8 including Utah. Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Cause Chaos in Last Half of the College Football Season BLEACHERREPORT.COM Top 8 Teams Most Likely to Cause Chaos in Last Half of the College Football Season

The Inside College Football's Sportsline computer simulation, calls it 27 - 25 Ducks. GULP! Please pass the Mylanta. Just Win Puddles! 3 of the 4 Inside experts pick Oregon. OREGON has to end this streak: 6 straight losses at neutral sites and on the road vs. Top 25 opponents. Should Danno invite Road Warrior, Mel Gibson, to watch the game on the Ducks sideline?

Stevan A., between Charles' GIFs and comments and your great one-liners, I need a forklift to pick me up off the floor. You must have taken the 'Court Room Comedy' course in law school. The course in the syllabus right behind, 'Collect the Money Up Front.' Keep 'em comin'!😍😍😍

Good comments above on Connerly and Cornelius, but both were going against terrific DEs. Trice is an NFL guy for certain. Trice and WSU's Ron Stone, Jr. are both finalists for the Nagurski Award. Cornelius to date has allowed only 2 QB hurries. And has been an impressive addition to the OL. One of ESPN's 50 most impactful new players. I felt that the holding call on Cornelius that brought back the Franklin TD was borderline. Especially compared to the OL muggings in the Ohio State - Penn State game that went uncalled. Without these 2 guys, the Ducks would not be leading the nation in run yards per play, 6.8.

Thanks, Alex. Heisman - An even better chance for Bo to move up with College GameDay in town. EastBay, great call on Barton. The loss of stud LB Landon Barton, 46 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery, may be the injury that breaks the Utes back. In 2022, Barton was the Pac-12 Frosh player of the year on D and a consensus Frosh All-America. A large presence on D at 6'4" and 242 pounds. Barton will be replaced by Stanford transfer Levani Damuni who has played in 5 games this season. With Oregon averaging 6.8 yards a rush, #1 in the nation, I expect that Utah will miss Barton. And having a guy, Jestin Jacobs, with measurables size-wise to Barton, on the field at LB for Oregon will help against Utah's run game. Last week in his first game in a long time, Jacobs had 6 tackles including a sack (his 1st ever) and a TFL. Should be a terrific heavyweight fight. Oregon comes in as the favorite, -6.5.

Great take. Cal is 86 in D rankings. USC is 110. No wonder Wilcox's seat is hot and Lincoln has missed the last 2 SC practices with some kind of illness.

I refuse to be the 13th commentator. (I get extra superstitious near All Hallowed Eve. ) GO DUCKS!

More bad news on the injury front for Utah, but favorable on paper, for the Ducks. True Sophomore, LB Lander Barton, 6'4" and 242 pounds (size like Oregon's Jestin Jacobs, who played last Saturday and had 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 TFL) is out for the season. Barton chose Utah over Texas and last season was the Pac-12 defensive Freshman player of the year and was named to the Freshman All-American team. Before the injury, Barton, who did not play at Baylor, had 46 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery. He will be replaced by Stanford transfer, Lavani Damuni. who has played in 5 games in 2023. Tough break for the Utes with Oregon coming to SLC leading the nation at 6.8 yards on rushing attempts. ........................................................................................................................................................... Some stats on going for it on 4th down in 2023. In FBS, teams have gone for it on 4th down 24.5% of the time. The conversion rate is 51.1%, the lowest since 2015, 50.5%. But teams that convert score a TD or FG on 70.7% of possessions with 4.4 points, compared to 34.8% and 2.1 points on other drives. Going into UW, Oregon was 8-10 on 4th down attempts for the season. 0-3 at UW and in last season's loss to Oregon State, Oregon went 0-5. Better take the opponent into account and not just analytics. Since 2021, Georgia leads the FBS in 4th down conversion rate at 73.5%. Indeed, the apple does not fall far from the tree. ............................................................................................................................................................. Weather on Saturday in SLC: 46 degrees/ partly cloudy.

Jen, great hire with DeBoer. But she also made the Jimmy Lake mistake by the lake. I understand that Jimmy is now working for the SAT Board of Directors.

Thanks, Charles. Spot On post. This will also be a playoff elimination game. One of the two teams will be a 2L playoff done after this game. The team that wins this game will get a big Halloween PO Committee rankings boost. Utah has 1 top-25 win to date and the Ducks zero. This should be a 4 Q slugfest. Our kicker situation has me feeling nervous. The line has moved up to Oregon -6.5 and up to -7 on a few books. ESPN FPI gives the Ducks a 68.7% chance to win the game. Oregon won 13,740 out of 20,000 FPI simulated games. But, as we all know, games are played by young athletes and not computers, and Rice-Eccoles Stadium is a very difficult place for a visiting team to win. GO DUCKS!

Riley, Grinch, and Caleb should all be doing ads for Charmin like Prime and Saint Nick do for Aflack. Quack! Riley was gifted an already sound program at Oklahoma courtesy of Bob Stoops. He produced quality QBs but the D at OK steadily declined under his watch. The nadir? Playoff semifinal in 2019 vs LSU. LSU was up 49-14 at halftime and won 63-28. Last week Arkansas, after a 13-7 loss to MS. St. fired OC Dan Enos. Why is Riley waiting to pull the trigger on The Grinch Who Stole Defense? It's not like the situation at Iowa where Ferentz refuses to fire his son. In the second half vs. Minnesota last week, Iowa averaged .5 yards a play. Oregon - At 13. Utah, vs. 24. USC, and 11. Oregon State. And the B1G will supposedly be a tougher row to hoe than the Pac-12?