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Joshua Whitted
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Posts posted by Joshua Whitted
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On 5/4/2022 at 12:50 PM, Haywarduck said:
I might add a 40 plus yard pass that is intercepted is just a very good punt. I have no problem with a few long ball mistakes, as long as there are also some memorable explosion plays. Maybe the qb's need to be trained to make the long balls more of a jump ball on third and long. With our tall receivers, and the potential for a big play this isn't a bad strategy. Certainly better than the 3 attempt at running up the gut!
After a long interception a quick 3 and out by the defense can then be chalked up as a massive gain by the team. I suppose it all comes down to how you look at the risk reward.
I look at the risk as an opportunity to turn it into a big gain, either way, something to think about! Explosions on offense and havoc on defense, bring it on!
Also a very good point. Not all turnovers are created equally (field position is another one of those five critical factors Bill Connelly mentions).
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On 5/4/2022 at 12:08 PM, Charles Fischer said:
Joshua, your explanation of the Bill Conerly stat about the success of teams winning more with explosion plays, is not something I have seen anywhere. It is a fantastic, concise, easy to understand explanation as to why we need explosion plays not just for entertainment, but for a higher winning percentage.
I don’t know which is more relevant to me, how you found and explained that statistic that backs up my lust for high scoring, or the fact that our current offensive coordinator and head coach “get-it!”
Another superb article with great observations. My thanks!
Thanks, Charles! I had stumbled upon that article a while back but was quite shocked to see just how important explosive plays are when I circled back to it for my research.
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On 5/4/2022 at 11:28 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:
Not not only the run game will benefit. With long fast WRs stretching the field on the deep threat, the safeties have to stay back to support the undersized CBs over the top. The middle zones are then open for the TEs who can usually exploit the LBs. Finally the Ducks will use the TEs as a passing threat and not just as blockers for the run game. I think I saw only one or two really effective pass plays to our TEs last year. More plays like the one against OSU where Matavao was wide open for a TD, please.
Another very good point. So many areas of the offense stand to benefit from vertical shots.
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On 5/4/2022 at 9:38 AM, Haywarduck said:
When you swing for the fence, the defense has to move back, creating a larger field of play, thus more open spaces. When the defense knows it only has to defend the line of scrimmage, and usually a couple gaps the game is pretty simple.
I look forward to a more wide open offense and even the occasional explosive mistake. I think our defense will revel in the challenge. I have a feeling Autzen is going to be rocking with the players, fans and coaches dancing more that just at the end of the third quarter, once again.
A bunch of high fiving and thriving will be arriving once this show gets into production. Once again The Oregon Football Program is going to be must watch football. From the Noah Way Defense to the Multi Threat Offense September can't get here soon enough. Release the hounds and lets get this party started.
I'm ready to run out on the field after that haha! I love it!
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On 5/4/2022 at 8:07 AM, Viking Duck said:
Thanks for the article Joshua. I am looking forward to seeing how stretching the field vertically affects the running game. We might see that the number of rushing yards stays around the same as the last few years, even though there are fewer rushing attempts and more successful passes.
Something that more than a few people have been preaching on OBD forum for a while now!
Absolutely; I think the vertical passing game will give us some much lighter boxes to run in from now on!
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On 4/20/2022 at 12:46 PM, 30Duck said:
I love how it's going so far for Lanning at Oregon. He wasn't on the short list when the search began, or maybe not even on the long list, but he got the job, at around the same time Riley was hired at USC, setting up a huge rivalry.
Aside from Oklahoma, everybody seems to love the Riley hire at USC. The Trojans aren't being picked for the Playoffs, well except for Colin Cowherd, but nowhere have I seen a caution flag, a this might not work, about Riley at USC.
Lanning, while not missing a step has in comparison gone about his business under the radar, and that couldn't be any better, for Oregon or Lanning. The Oregon brand is still strong, but it's showing its resilience while USC is shouting and jumping up and down to get noticed again.
By the way, Russell Wilson just bought a new place in Denver. It only cost $14 M while Riley spent $17 M, for his in LA, both have 12 bathrooms.
I do agree that I'm a fan of falling under the radar. And I'm also equally as baffled by Russell Wilson's need for 12 (!) bathrooms haha.
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On 4/20/2022 at 9:54 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:
Joshua, as always thank you and all the writers for taking the time to write and present these articles.
Scoring more points than your opponents has always been the goal for football coaches. But that is easier said than done. IMHO it starts with assembling a great staff that believes in you as the head coach. A staff that supports your vision and plan for all 3 phases of the game.
That staff best bring in top recruits and have a passion to develope those players skill sets.
Then Coach Lanning needs to let his coordinators coach and execute the game plan. Win or lose, the players need to see the HC and staff on the same page.
The previous HC often talked about scoring alot of points but throttled down his OC. The result was the near destruction of a well oiled, high performing offense. Charles sounded the alarm very early on.....
So far Coach Lanning is making some good decisions. Good hires have brought in great recruits. Now we have to wait and see if the staff and players have truly bought in.
After the game in Pullman we will have a good idea of how well the coaches can make in game adjustments. Also how well the players are being developed and whether or not the offense will attempt explosion plays.
More importantly can the team execute those explosion plays and put points on the board. Lots of points.
We wont really know for a few years whether Coach Lanning will be a great hire, an average hire or a bust. Its to early in his journey as a HC.....
Be patient Duck fans because their will be ups and downs along the way. By all accounts Dan Lanning really appears genuine and humble.
That in itself is a good start.......
I agree wholeheartedly with all of this, thank you for reading and commenting!
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On 4/20/2022 at 9:52 AM, Haywarduck said:
Well written and thought out piece of writing. I will say the wild card is how well will/can he handle the variables which effect coaching is another question I will be watching. I think Chip Kelly handled the Blount incident incredibly well, and the team was under his control. The way Mario dealt with the airsoft gun incident, to me, was just another nail in his coffin. The little things, and big things were wearing away the program under Mario.
As stated most importantly can a DC get our offense off the ground. This isn't a little thing and an O-line coach couldn't. I think this could be the most intriguing question of the season. Can we create some magic, or just out coach the opposing defenses we face. We are completely unproven on this side of the ball at qb, coach, coordinator, and most importantly scheme.
I do go back to the wild card which will undoubtedly pop up with this young coach. Every leader is challenged by a situation which loudly, or quietly defines them by the players, and fanbase. I don't know what it will be, but something will create a crisis and how will Dan Lanning handle it. There are also countless little things, but we don't often see that.
From calling timeouts, to the airlift incident this blindspot for Mario showed the inner workings of the dysfunctional side of Mario. He sold many on the fact that he was the field general, but we could see from his game management he didn't have it as a coach. We also thought he was an amazing manager of players, but the airlift gun incident gave us an insight into just how he managed the student athletes.
All these wildcards which happen in games and while coaching add up to the 'it' of coaching. Does Dan have it to handle the gametime decisions and program management of 85 plus college students. The little things just might add up to big things, and hopefully continuing our, now, bias that Coach Lanning is the real deal. I think they will, but he is unproven in the little things that happen as a person which can become huge as a leader of young men.
Hayward, this is a very, very good point, and one that often gets overlooked. I think the X's and O's are actually less important to being a good coach than managing people and handling situations.
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On 4/20/2022 at 9:35 AM, Flyin Vee said:
Remove the name Lanning, and insert Kelly and you may have read a similar article 10 plus years ago.
With great risk comes great rewards. Safe plays get you the average.
from what I have gleaned from available information every position coach was hand picked by DL as one of a band of brothers. Comments from current Ducks indicate a evolving culture. I have always believed if your job is to eat the elephant, don’t look at the size of the job, just do it one bite at a time.
“New shooter coming out!”
I certainly a proponent of taking risks in order to succeed in just about every area of life. This applies to college football especially.
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On 4/20/2022 at 9:31 AM, Jon Joseph said:
Great take Joshua! But did you have to rub-it-in with: "before this writer was born?" (KIDDING!)
Yes. you have to score points to win in CFB today. The final score for UGA in the Natty was an pick 6 but UGA played far better O vs Bama in the champ game than in the SEC title game.
Smart, unlike Pruitt, is a heck of a recruiter without handing McDonalds bags full of money to recruits. (One wonders if Tennessee will be dinged for this and other illegal recruiting in today's environment? Can the Ducks get its schollies back for Chip using a 'runner?' Talk about selective enforcement!)
Dan to date has made great hires among making all the right moves. I hope Ducks fans will evidence patience if necessary, with Dan. It took Kirby Smart 6 seasons to get over the Saban hump.
Thanks for another great take.
Haha, that just means you have a lot more wisdom on me, Jon!
Patience is key. Success doesn't come over night.
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On 4/6/2022 at 3:00 PM, Duck 1972 said:
I say our coaches have to spend more time and out work any other staff outside of the PAC (USC excluded) to get the talent to compete nationally due to the obstacles named above. To me this is a no brainer.
I posit that this could cause burnout for our coaches and thus will possibly cause repercussions on the field.
As far as a difference between the South which I include Texas. I moved to Houston in the 80s and when my native friend and I started driving around I would see these large football stadiums so I would ask which college it belonged to. He would chuckle and inform me it was a HS. 30k capacity for a HS. I was overwhelmed.
I had a similar experience when visiting Texas, it is truly a different world when it comes to football down there. The fact that they're a factory for top high school prospects makes it all the more surprising that UT hasn't bounced back in recent years.
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On 4/6/2022 at 12:29 PM, Quackerbacker said:
Agree with you Hayward. The money spent on football in the Southeast is way more than what programs spend out west. That is what the "means more" is all about. From that perspective it does mean more in the Southeast. In recruiting the Southeast goes all out for top recruits and admittedly they do have a lot more in their own backyard. Out west who recruits as hard as say Alabama or Georgia?
No one did until Mario came to Oregon and we started leveraging our facilities and opportunities at the U of O to compete with the SEC schools (I should include the Big 10 in this). We can compete with them because it does "mean more" at Oregon and we have put the money into our facilities, coaches, and academics to compete. It's Mighty Oregon folks and you better watch out for us, we are coming for a National Championship!
Yeah, I definitely don't disagree that plenty of SEC programs invest more in football. I just don't think that makes as much of a practical difference as their fans seem to think -- at least not nearly as much of a difference as their proximity to talent does...
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On 4/6/2022 at 8:31 AM, Haywarduck said:
I think what Kenny is speaking to is the dedication to making Oregon a place where recruits want to come to. You are right we are at a disadvantage when it comes to location to talent. We are at an extreme advantage when it comes to a place where student athletes want to come to play, live and compete.
Nobody west of Texas is even in the top 20 in facilities, except Oregon at #1. This is an advantage for the student athletes who want to, or are willing to leave home to play football, or really any sport. The Oregon Athletic Programs are evidence of this advantage. Look at our basketball program and how they rank in recruiting. Look at our facilities for Track and Field, and the whole University academic facilities.
Oregon is the most impressive place to come learn, and compete in the country. Slick didn't invent this, Mario didn't make this, they just realized it and leveraged it. This is what Kenny is talking about. It is a competition for the kids who are willing to leave their hometown, home state, and we can dominate this group, with effort, and intention.
When it is said, 'it just means more' it does mean more, we have put more money, and effort into it than any program in the nation. We have built it, and they will come, if we have the staff that both realizes the advantage we have, and puts a product on the field student athletes want to be part of. The Old Oregon was just that, we have to become that again, and DanLan is bringing it back!
Yeah I wanted to be very careful not to blame Dillingham at all, as he's far from the only person to perpetuate the narrative that I discuss in the article. Unfortunately, I think it kind of speaks to my argument that Oregon is #1 in facilities and our best recruiting class ever wasn't even a top-5 class nationally.
It's not the fault of anyone at Oregon, it's strictly a geographical issue. Not one that Oregon can't overcome, but it takes a staff full of elite recruiters. I do think we have a group of recruiters capable of taking us to high heights, though!
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On 4/6/2022 at 11:06 AM, Charles Fischer said:
Way to call it for the truth Joshua, as yes their fans are fervent--but that is not the major reason for the success of the SEC.
That, in a nutshell, is the crux of my argument. I do think plenty of SEC programs invest more in football than the Pac-12, but I don't think that is the biggest determinant of their success.
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On 3/23/2022 at 3:08 PM, Glenn said:
I feel like we should also look to Bennett Williams as a true breakout defensive star... he has all the tools to be a disruptive star, and, if healthy, will provide a lot of highlight clips before he heads to the NFL.
I like this one a lot. He could be a real leader on defense this season.
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On 3/23/2022 at 12:48 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Thanks Joshua. Always enjoy reading your articles.
Between Stroud, Young and Williams, Stroud has by far the best and deepest group of returning WRs. 10 WRs on the Buckeyes spring roster. All were top 150 recruits.
There is a reason Bama went after one of UGA's best receivers. After Metchie and Williamson went down, none of the young WR's on the Bama roster came through; especially, in the champ game and as so noted by Coach Saban. WR recruiting at Bama has missed the mark the last couple of seasons.
I agree that LB Anderson was perhaps the best player in CFB in 2021, and he is going to wreck havoc this season. But I sense that the gap is closing between Bama and the rest of the SEC W? If the Tigers do not go on probation, watch out for LSU. No matter what one may think of Brian Kelly, he is a heck of a coach.
Williams? London is gone. Who will step up at wideout for SC? The 'other' Williams coming in from OK to play WR is the obvious choice to emerge as Caleb's go-to guy. With Jones coming in from Stanford and Dye (sigh) from the Ducks, SC looks to be in great shape at the RB position.
Thompson? It would be great if Ty can win the starting job. He could not beat out journeyman AB last season, but was he given a true shot at the job? If Nix' ankle is healed it will be a tough ask to beat out a guy with Nix' game experience and his experience playing in Dillingham's system.
If Ty or Butterfield cannot beat out Nix, who has 2 years of eligibility left, I hope one or both do not portal out. The portal is one reason I expect the starting QB not to be named before fall practice.
Flowe? As you so noted if he can stay healthy he has AA potential. But from what we have seen it's a big ask for Flowe to make it through the season without being injured.?
Definitely need one of the RBs to break out in 2022. Definitely need the OL to help the run game and to start consistently playing up to their respective recruiting rankings.
I certainly agree with all of this, and I'd love to see an RB (likely Caldwell) emerge, as many have noted. I think our O-Line will be a real strength this season, so whoever gets the majority of the carries should have some holes to run through.
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On 3/23/2022 at 12:18 PM, WiseKwacker said:
Webb, Ferguson, Moliki, Herbert... Each one of these guys has a skillset that makes me drool. (Sorry, no video available.) Even though Mario's staff recruited this position very well, they weren't really involved much in the offense--other than for blocking. Webb certainly has shown he has excellent pass catching skills, if not great blocking ability. In the new Dillingham offense, I'm looking forward to more passes thrown to the tight end.
Maybe Webb will be a breakout star. Maybe Herbert will get healthy and become a breakout player. Or maybe either Ferguson or Moliki will continue to develop beyond the promising consistency they showed as true freshmen last season to become stars. Maybe we'll end up just saying that the "tight end group" became a breakout star in 2022. Frankly, I'd be good with that.
BTW, I always make sure I have a solid TE on my fantasy football teams (Kelce, Kittle, Waller...). Frankly, as an old Baltimore Colts fan, I've loved the position since John Mackey first burst onto the scene. And, as a fan of Air Coryell a few years later, I loved me some Kellen Winslow. Sorry about the old man ramble...
I could not agree more, the TE position has been sorely underutilized and we have a bunch of talent at the position. I'd love to see one or more of the players have a big year.
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On 3/23/2022 at 10:26 AM, Haywarduck said:
He is 6' 5" and runs a 4.43 40. The only reason he didn't break out last season is now in Miami. The kid sat on the bench after averaging a touchdown every other catch. I suppose he also needs a qb who can throw the ball, and see the field, but that hopefully won't be the issue it was last year.
Breakout is a great term to describe what is going to happen this year. Unleash the hounds, I say. The other guy to breakout is our only Butkus Award winner out of high school ever to sign to play for the Ducks. If he can stay healthy we are going to see a defense which will be unlike anything we have ever seen. QB's are going to be seeing shadows for a couple games after playing the Ducks. The tackling ability of Noah and the speed of a safety is going to be unleashed on college football. Look out for the college Butkas award arriving at Oregon.
Basically the Oregon we all knew and dreamed about is about to breakout of the shackles it has been under. The whole program is going to breakout with a few of the players exceeding even our wildest dreams!
I love it! And the picture says it all!
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On 3/9/2022 at 5:54 PM, David Marsh said:
I don't feel the third question needs to be answered or even should be answered by the end of Spring. Ty Thompson or Bo Nix or Jay Butterfield... we need to see all of them get a nice chunk of snaps but who wins the starting position can wait until a couple weeks into Fall Camp as far as I'm concerned. Let them play, learn and improve and then let them show it all over again during fall camp.
This isn't to say a starter shouldn't be chosen until the end of fall camp but the first week or two into fall camp still having a lively competition isn't a bad place to be.
I actually agree entirely that we shouldn't (and certainly won't) know who the starter is until later on...I really just needed to juice up the title a bit
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On 3/9/2022 at 1:16 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Great take Joshua, thank you.
OK, this is obscure, but I want to see a practice and strength and conditioning philosophy that can help, at least in theory, prevent all of the injuries we saw last season.
'Physicality' was Mario's mantra. I can't help but wonder if Oregon practices and the S+C routines were not too physical under Mario? Physical to the point where guys were unable to play; or, too dinged up on game day to play to their potential? Too dinged up to 'finish' games?
Regardless, please football gods, take the injury curse off of Oregon in 2022.
Nix vs Thompson will be interesting to watch. Did Thompson get any coaching at all last season in Mario's Prevent Offense scheme. I watched AB play all season long 'with blinders on' and then I watched the 2nd half of the Alamo Bowl where there was 'nothing to lose' and Oregon players were finally allowed to be athletic. Viva la difference.
If you play football uptight and afraid to make mistakes you will not play to the best of your ability, and this kind of play also leads to injuries.
Thanks again Joshua, please keep the quality articles coming.
I think you bring up a really good point about the physicality perhaps leading to injury. It's why many NFL teams like the Rams dial things back in practice, to preserve their players. Obviously it's different with NFL players, but that ideology may be worth looking into.
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On 3/9/2022 at 12:56 PM, kirklandduck said:
Don't count out Butterfield yet. If Dillingham is going to run a more pro-style offense, why wouldn't the only pro-style QB on Oregon's roster have a decent shot? Just saying he could be a dark horse contender come this Fall.
I really, really want Butterfield to get a legitimate shot at the job. How quickly people forget that he too was a big signee at the time.
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On 3/9/2022 at 10:10 AM, Haywarduck said:
Spring football is like seeing the crocus's bloom. They are an indication of what is to come, but also tell us there is a lot of work to be done to before we get a full, well manicured team in the ground performing to expectations.
At qb I want to see if the coaches put out and engineer more than a manager. The previous coaching staff seemed to want a qb who would manage what was called from the sideline, and then changed from the sideline. The qb was suppose to limit himself to exactly what was called, as was the rb. My question, does the new coaching staff want a commander out on the field who does more than wait for calls and install a predictable offense. Are we, again, going to have a qb who finagles wins, and bamboozles defenses while exciting the crowd?
On defense I want to see what the Bassa's can do. Are we going to have players, again who just want to play football and excel wherever we put them. A return to the Troy Dye players who bring a passion and intelligence to our defense is what I want to see. The havoc meter should rise, but I also want to see the passion and intelligence meter rise on defense. This should also be complemented with a more disciplined squad, an extremely important element.
I will also look for the coaching identity change. No longer do I want to see a clueless coach who merely exudes intensity and strength. I want to see stoic intelligence on the sideline. There should definitely be passion, but that passion should be towards execution and savvy play on the field. No longer do I want to worry about the end of the game, or critical junctures. I want to again look toward what does our coach have up his sleeve, and the opposing team on their heals while they await the coming bombardment of well thought out, executed play calling. It will be the old Ducks, but just done better!
I think you bring up a great point about the type of QB that fans want to see. The good and bad news is that Nix is totally the guy you're describing. He's a playmaker and really has top-level upside. But he's sooo inconsistent, and we'll have plenty of turnovers and drive-killing sacks with him at the helm. Ideally, of course, Thompson brings the upside and limits the negative plays. Either way, I'm pretty confident both will be more of a "playmaker" than AB was. No shade to AB, but he was way more of the game manager you described.
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On 3/9/2022 at 9:59 AM, Dukduponquak said:
Josh, if I remember correctly Ty only played one, maybe two series before Crystalball benched him for Brown even though his receiver dropped the ball that was intercepted! Even though the game was out of reach! Stupid decisions in my honest opinion. Why wouldn’t you want to get your backup some more snaps just in case?
I think that was the Colorado game, right? Yeah, Thompson got no legitimate action in 2021, which makes his current status such a wildcard.
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On 3/9/2022 at 9:46 AM, Just Ducky said:
It will be hard for Thompson to start over Nix in the beginning and I blame that totally on MC and his staff. He should have been getting plenty of minutes by the start of pack 12 play last season but that didn’t happen. If he does beat out Nix early then we will know just how good he really is.
On the defensive side of the ball I’m not as worried. Our new coaching staff will have our defense playing on their toes instead of their heels with a controlled aggressive approach that will drive opposing teams nuts. This should cause plenty of havoc and probably will cause far less injuries than what we have seen the last couple years. Attacking defenses are much more fun to watch for all us fans.
Going to be a fun ride and will give this Forum plenty to talk over in the coming months. Let the music start.
Go
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Yeah, I don't think their was ever a truly fair QB competition last off-season at all. Basically AB was handed the job. I think MC gets some blame, but so too does Moorhead, as much as I like him. He liked AB from the start (even over Shough), and I think MC deferred to his expertise.
Oregon’s Explosive Offense Has Officially Returned
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Yeah the penalties are a big, big drive killer. Without much of a passing game last year, they would pretty much spell doom for the offense.