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Joshua Whitted
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Posts posted by Joshua Whitted
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On 12/15/2021 at 6:27 PM, Charles Fischer said:
Joshua....thank you for stating what needed to said up-front; playing Cristo-"ball" will not win a 'Natty, and that is one thing Lanning should not emulate from his mentor. GREAT article...
Thanks, Charles! Fingers crossed, but I'm thinking we're finally turning the corner offensively with this OC hire.
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On 12/15/2021 at 2:28 PM, Drake said:
Good article.
QB’s play a major role determining whether a team is a legit contender. If one of the nations best college QB’s is having a “good” day it can be a thing of beauty to watch.
We watched what happens when an offense (QB) has limited ability to attack defenses. The Ducks rarely had comfortable leads in the second half.
Top 10 teams demolish lower competition. Miami may be paying a lot of $$$ to find out the real reason that we weren’t really that good.
A new chapter is starting at Oregon. Can’t wait to “read it”.
I couldn't have said it any better myself. Success in football starts and stops with the quarterback. It's not the only thing that matters, but it is certainly the most important.
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On 12/15/2021 at 1:06 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Spot ON Joshua!
Not only did Mario win nothing his way, I'm sorry but a 1 point win over a 3L Wisconsin in a Rose Bowl exhibition game is not a big deal, he put a choke collar on the NFL rookie of the year and had an Epic Fail at ASU. Just like the Epic Fail this season at Stanford and the 2 no shows against a Utah team that lost at Oregon State.
Nick Saban brought in Lane Kiffin and reinvented the Bama O. He also went for quicker, faster players on the D side of the ball. Mario played an average QB throughout the 2021 season, content to grind out 1 score wins. As a teammate of Mario's once said, 'He'd rather hit you in the mouth and gain 5 yards then run around you for a TD.' Mario came as close as possible to destroying the Oregon Brand that took years to build.
No one covers the SEC like the folks at Saturday Down South. They all predicted that if Smart started Stetson and not Daniels against Bama, UGA would take the L. Like Mario with Moorhead, Smart did move to update the UGA O with the hire of Todd Monken. UGA was one of the top 10 scoring teams in the P5 in 2021. But when the chips were down against Bama, Smart left Daniels on the bench.
If Smart starts Daniels versus Michigan and in a likely rematch against Bama, UGA will be a national champion. If he plays Stetson, a journeyman game manager, he could lose the semi-final game.
Like Dabo at Clemson in the ACC, Oregon with its roster should roll through a conference that produced but 6 bowl eligible teams. But Dabo didn't win titles without Watson and Lawrence at QB.
I think it is wrong that Lanning as of now, is trying to serve 2 masters. A recruiting class has to be saved and the portal has to be picked.
Joshua is so correct that without an NFL quality QB, no team will win a Natty. Mac Jones is not the most mobile guy at QB. But he won a title and is playing great ball for the Patriots. If Herbert had been free to play at his level, the Ducks would at least have been in the Final 4 in 2019. And who knows what would have happened in 2021 if Thompson had played QB and Mario's head was in the game and not in Miami.
Jon, great points as always! I know you mentioned it as an aside at the end, but goodness gracious, isn't it absolutely incredible (in a bad way) how much we held Herbert back in his last two years. He's a bonafide superstar in the NFL... That has to be Mario's biggest failure during his time at Oregon.
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On 12/15/2021 at 11:12 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:
Joshua, another spot on article.. Thank you!
As the MC Era unfolded, game after game, I kept asking myself.......
How does MC and the OC expect to get to the CFP, let alone the Natty with this type of offense?
Charles and others wrote many articles on this very topic. Charles mantra of 45 points a game continues to echo in the empty halls of my brain.
Let's face it, just a couple a handfuls of coaches have won the Natty, this century. Most all will not even reach the CFP. Maybe MC included. They don't have the pedigree, facilities, coaches or players. Let's face it, Cincinnati is in because a number of blue bloods are down. Which is great by the way.......
Almost 50 years ago, I was privileged to coach youngsters in football. We scored alot. 5 years into the program, a couple of opposing moms came storming at me after we beat their team 46-14.
In my face they yelled and criticized me for running up the score, every game. RIGHT in front of all the kids.
Parents that's a no no.
I asked them to give me a moment to gather my team, congratulate them and then shake hands with the other team. As the field thinned out of fans, I could see more parents gathering with the moms who confronted me. Just what I needed.
Now mind you, I was very young and lacked wisdom. Hec I couldn't even spell wisdom. But I was smart enough to know these moms were scary. Some of the moms on my team were standing there, too.
They bombarded me with why I continued to run up the score? My answer......
We don't run up the score. We practice plays designed to score. No matter who is on the field. The kids are playing in front of their parents, other family members and friends. They want to do well when it's there turn to play.. They want to score from the first play to the last play of every game. I play all the kids on my team. The team who scores the most points win. Our players play to win. I don't control what happens on the field. The players do.
It was going well until I said it's your teams job to stop us from scoring.
Then it got worse when a 13 year old player, on our team said....
Your team wouldn't have scored any points if coach hadn't told the defense to take it easy on you...
Someday I will finish the rest of the story.....
Point is that the team with the most points wins. Was then is now. You can win alot of games by just playing to win. You want the CFP and Natty, then it takes 3 things.
Score alot of points every game. Break the morale of your opponents early and often. Every game.
Then have a defense that can win games when the offense is having an off day. And have a defense that can throttle the high scoring offenses in the CFP and Natty.
Lastly, you have recruited youngsters who love to play and win. Give them plays (schemes) designed to score. Designed to win the chess match of footbsll.... Then turn em loose and let em play.........
That story is so awesome, and this is the best comment I've seen in some time haha! Absolutely incredible; for what it's worth, I'd have been on your side defending you against the angry moms lol. Thanks for sharing and for the terrific comment.
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On 12/15/2021 at 11:07 AM, Just Ducky said:
Good stuff Josh. This is exactly why MC’s stubbornness will keep him from winning what the Miami fans are expecting.
I think from what DL has said so far he won’t make the same mistakes. Only time will tell if his dream ( and ours ) will come true. I think he has a great nucleus of players already in the stable to make this happen.
Goanna be fun for the fans and the players.
Go
s
Absolutely! As always, I'm super excited to see how everything plays out.
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On 12/15/2021 at 10:45 AM, 30Duck said:
Great article, Joshua. Let's hope that Lanning is smarter than Smart when it comes to offense. They were both on the sideline as Alabama made their historic defense look silly. Lanning mentioned "explosion plays" in his Presser. Those have been in Saban's arsenal since he switched to Tagovailoa at halftime, against Georgia and won the championship with a walkoff touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith.
Alabama won championship's with Game Managers like Greg McElvoy, this year, their QB, Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy. Thompson or Butterfield might not be Bryce Young. But it seems like Lanning is going to be smart enough to let the Ducks QB air it out to the talented WR Corps Oregon has assembled.
Great points, and I am with you; I do believe Lanning understands the importance of an explosive offense. The Dillingham hire shows that.
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On 12/15/2021 at 9:04 AM, Haywarduck said:
Great article and it was the chink in our armor too. From 20' away it all looked good. As one got closer the chinks looked worse and worse.
Top recruiting was something we could hang our hat on. We were elite, and when it all lined up we could justify that mentality. Much like the run up the gut against the dawgs, it worked. All we had to do was focus on our recruiting rankings, right?
The problem was a limited offense limits the output. In this day and age if you don't have an important element others have, you are at a disadvantage. An aggressive passing attack, and explosive plays are fundamental football, at the elite level.
I will look for a downfield passing attack, and more discipline on penalties as my two elements to see if Lanning has changed the Oregon Football Program in a productive way. Wins and staying in games are just fluff. We need to have progress towards making teams sweat again on defense, not drool.
We also need to see everyone on the same page, and nobody acting selfishly, or without discipline. That change, hopefully, began when Cristobal left, and Lanning landed. This is probably the single most important element Lanning can bring.
Fantastically put, Hayward. That's perfectly stated! I agree 100%.
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On 12/15/2021 at 8:59 AM, Log Haulin said:
Great article, thanks. I am starting to get my football mind back after taking a couple years off from sports for personal reasons. Fishduck and a couple other sites have really helped me to catch up. Duck fans are smart and well informed. Add another layer to the game experience that I really enjoy.
Happy to have you on the board! We hope to continue to hear your thoughts as you shake some of the rust off.
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On 12/15/2021 at 8:01 AM, Axel said:
Note to Joshua Whitted: This is a well-crafted piece. You've astutely pointed out the Achilles' heel of Georgia football. I look forward to reading more of your articles.
Thanks, Axel! I appreciate you reading it.
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On 12/6/2021 at 12:15 PM, C J said:
Why? Any specific reasons for this? Has he not made lemonade at Cal? He has never had a QB who could win a lot of games.
Dave Aranda is not going to be leaving Baylor. He has already made that perfectly clear. Why not bring someone in who wants to live in Oregon, who knows Oregon, who enjoys the weather and doesn't mind the fickle fans.
I am VERY skeptical of his ability to be an elite recruiter.
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I would be absolutely ecstatic if we are able to bring in Dave Aranda AND his OC Jeff Grimes. Although I think if we hire Aranda, Grimes would be a strong candidate to take over the Baylor HC position. If not that duo, Lane Kiffin would be a 1B candidate for me. I'd take a shot at Josh Heupel next, then Matt Campbell and Chip Kelly. I'd be satisfied with any of these hires. I don't want Wilcox personally. I think our ceiling decreases significantly with him at the helm.
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On 11/17/2021 at 11:51 AM, Charles Fischer said:
Outstanding article Joshua, because you back your contentions up with facts to come to a reasonable conclusion. You've helped my blood pressure already!
Glad to hear yours is improving; mine won't until the clock hits zero and we're on top XD
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On 11/17/2021 at 11:35 AM, Jon Joseph said:
Thanks Joshua, great take.
John Wilner, as noted above, also believes the Ducks has the superior run game and the superior run D. He also notes that surprisingly for Utah, the Utes special teams in 2021 are average at best. Have to give Whittingham props for using the portal to bring in a quality QB and RBs.
Rumor has it that Whit will probably retire at the end of this season? If true, more HC chaos for the Pac-12. The HC confusion does not help with recruiting. Only 2 Pac-12 teams, Oregon and Stanford are ranked in the top 25. Terrible recruiting is one of if not the main reason for the conference being so bad OOC.
Notre Dame trips to Stanford for the Irish 12th and final regular season game. ND a dark horse for the PO but definitely a contender for a NY6 bowl will likely blow out the Cardinal. This will not help Oregon's PO chances.
Jon, that's a huge point you bring up about their special teams. That's one of the reasons they're usually so hard to beat; they just are so sound in every aspect that you have to be on your A-game 24/7. Thankfully their special teams isn't nearly as good as it usually is, as you stated.
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On 11/17/2021 at 11:01 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said:
Joshua, I like your style and attitude. I like our DUCKS Saturday as well. The game will be played at 4,200 foot elevation with game time temps in the high to mid 40's. These young men are in the prime condition of their life and the elevation will not slow them. No Mycah to throw to? No problem. Utah has not seen a defense like ours.
BTW I watched the 49'rs Monday night and the difference in TV picture quality from our game Saturday was like night and day. ABC has this game and we should have a top quality picture. GO DUCKS!
I definitely did forget about the elevation. Hopefully we arrive in SLC with plenty of time to adapt to the environment.
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On 11/17/2021 at 9:48 AM, Haywarduck said:
Wow, I haven't felt this good about a game we are favored to lose in a long time. Great writing, and support statistics to substantiate your take.
I look forward to your hypothesis coming true, twice, Go Ducks!
I feel surprisingly confident about this game too, and it kind of concerns me, haha. Thanks, Hayward. Go Ducks!
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On 11/17/2021 at 9:30 AM, Quackanadian said:
Good read Josh.
This is the game they have been preparing all year for.
Run the ball.
No turnovers.
But most of all...
DON'T LEAVE IT UP TO THE PAC 12 REFS!!!!!
I couldn't agree more! Let's make it decisive enough that the refs are a non-factor
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On 11/17/2021 at 8:54 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:
Joshua thanks for taking the time to present your analysis. MC and his staff, most likely, have been preparing, scheming and practicing to exploit the very weaknesses you pointed out.
The environment will be hostile. The Utah fans energize those players. The Ducks offense will need to sustain multiple 6 to 8 minute drives and score touchdowns. Take the air out of the ball and the crowd. 6 touchdowns should be the minimum goal.
This D can and should control the line of scrimmage. Force Rising into scrambling throws. KT and safety blitzes will have Rising hearing footsteps. Don't let him set his feet and pound him often like DTR in the UCLA game. That may pay dividends latet on in the P12 title game.
Eliminate the bone head penalties, turnovers and don't get behind the chains. Utah is well coached, they will make you pay.
The game plan, on both sides of the ball will be difficult for Utah to handle. Oregon has better players,, too. Just as Joshua aptly explained..
Go Ducks. Beat Utah. 1-0 this week.
I second eliminating the bonehead penalties!! We can't beat ourselves in any way shape or form, they're too well coached as you stated.
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On 11/3/2021 at 1:56 PM, Tandaian said:
I know nobody likes computers for rankings, but the AAC is ranked #11 in Jeff Sagarin conference rankings. Houston and SMU are good teams, but overall the AAC is not on the level of a P5 conference. Even as poor as the ACC and Pac 12 are playing, the conferences on the whole are much stronger. Top 6 teams from each conference. I would have placed Cincy at #4, but moved them out as their SOS got worse and worse.
Only Arizona and Colorado have a ranking over 100. ACC only Duke is over 100. AAC has 4 teams over 100 and Tulsa at #97.
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Pac 12 ACC AAC Oregon #15 Wake #16 Cincinnati #6 Utah #22 Clemson #18 SMU #39 ASU #34 Pitt #20 Houston #41 UCLA #40 NC ST. #25 UCF #56 UW #45 Miami #37 Memphis #85 OSU #49 Virginia #44 East Carolina #88
This is a great point, and it definitely debunks my claim that the AAC is on the level of the Pac-12 or ACC. Great research and information.
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On 11/3/2021 at 1:26 PM, JDuck said:
With a lot of potential B1G and Little-12 chaos potentially on the horizon, it may work itself out. That said, Oregon's 4 remaining opponents will really bring it, and bring it hard. We better play like we did in Columbus, every week. May have to beat Utah twice, once in SLC and once in Vegas...we do, we deserve to be in.
Absolutely. The game against Wazzu scares me like no other.
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On 11/3/2021 at 1:15 PM, Duck in HuskyLand said:
Committee gave itself some flexibility to add tOSU or Cincinnati. Oregon is in a very precarious spot, and really needs 1) the SEC to produce a 2-loss team, Georgia or Alabama; 2) MSU to go undefeated; 3) tOSU to be no worse than a 2-loss team.
If tOSU wins the rest of the way, and the SEC has two 1-loss teams, MSU and the Ducks are out, OSU and Cincinnati are in.I could be wrong.
I don't necessarily agree with this. I think Cincinnati is pretty clearly out unless Oregon loses. Oregon could get left out if the SEC gets two teams in, though.
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On 11/3/2021 at 12:02 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Great take Joshua.
But I disagree regarding Cincinnati. I think Cincy at 6 is high.. The Bearcats SOS is 100. Unlike the AP Poll, no other AAC team is ranked by the Committee. IMO, this season's Notre Dame team should be the lowest ranked 1L team, behind both OK ST and Baylor?
If any team is under ranked, IMO, it's Michigan at 7? I think Michigan has as good a lose as Bama. And Bama's OOC schedule is putrid. Miami is a .500 team in a bad conference.
I don't have a beef with Bama at 2, but MS ST at 17? I know it was a questionable loss but MS ST did lose to Memphis. If MS ST is not ranked I see no reason why Bama should be ranked ahead of Michigan? Certainly not 5 spots higher than Michigan.
BTW. Based on its OOC play and in conference play, I have no beef with the Ducks being the only ranked Pac-12 team. This is not east coast bias, it is bad west coast play.
But it's all just debate material until after the conference champ games.
Thanks again, good stuff!
I don't think you're alone thinking Cincy is too high, Jon. It seems like a lot of other people share that perspective, so I might be the odd one out. I just think that how Cincinnati has handled its schedule, for the most part, has been very impressive. They get grief for beating Tulane by 28+ points when Oklahoma beat them by 5...
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On 11/3/2021 at 11:47 AM, Charles Fischer said:
Pretty impressive article Joshua, considering that you did not even begin working on it until 8:00 PM Eastern! I have some quibbles here and there, but the committee was consistent about SOS and head-to-head meetings.
I thought we would be No. 6 or No. 7, and I hope the Ducks do something with this gift.
Thanks, Charles. Most of the time was spent cutting words to keep it at a readable length ...I hope you'll excuse it for being a long one!
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On 11/3/2021 at 11:07 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:
Joshua
Well thought out and presented. Thank you....
No matter what the invitational committee presents, there will be dissenters. Fan bases, on the outside looking in will argue their cases.
Just as we would if they put Oregon at #8 or behind tOSU.
Barring the usual upsets that can befall 1 thru 4, IMHO, as long as Oregon and tOSU win out, it will be difficult for anyone to jump them.
tOSU is our buffer.
Win out Ducks. Ignore the noise. It can be difficult at age 18-19 to understand this. But this is your moment, it is in your hands. It may never come your way again.
I agree; I think some believe Ohio State can jump us with big wins down the road, but I think the committee definitely set the precedent that head-to-head basically trumps all with the placement of Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Oregon's safe as long as they keep winning.
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On 11/3/2021 at 10:58 AM, 30Duck said:
Maybe I'm naïve, but I actually think the committee generally does a decent job. I do understand the conspiracy theories, though, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if there is some validity to them.
Alamo Bowl Gameday Thread: Why It Matters for Oregon
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
I know I'm not the only one who's excited to see some young players step up in the wake of the transfers and opt outs. I think this will be a great look into the future of our receiving corps. So much talent at that position, both WR and TE.