[Which Michael Penix Will Oregon Face Tonight?]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:18 AM, mikethehiker said:

Washington's ground game is vastly improved since our first meeting, likely due to the injury to Penix. 

I would agree that the mutts have relied more on their ground game since 10/14, but not convinced it is that much better. It is not terribly balanced as it has depended on Johnson for >75% of the carries. If you take that insane performance against a horrid U$C run defense out of the equation, the numbers settle down quite a bit, particularly in the last two games.

 

Fuskys O-line is pretty decent in pass protect but less so when running the ball. OSU held them to 110 yds on the ground with Johnson getting most of those touches. Ditto WSU at 102 yds. Oregon played to par against the Beavs since Bo lit them up so bad through the air but Bucky and Co. rolled up 248 on the Cougs.

 

If Johnson is a bit dinged up those numbers won't even be that good against the Duck run defense. Then their offense goes back to depending on how well Penix's arm works. DeBoer and crew have been leaning away from that previously successful strategy since the Oct 14 game and probably will need the run to keep Oregon's safeties honest. If #33 and Co. can stay back in Cover 1 or even 2, while the front seven takes care of business, those Odunze daggers get harder to accomplish. 

[Which Michael Penix Will Oregon Face Tonight?]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:13 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Post the OREGON game, UW averaged 2.50 points per possession with a success rate of 44%.

 

1.36 fewer points per possession.

JJ, thanks for the in depth look.The before and après OBD stats are significantly different for the Fusky offense. Much of that falls on Penix, but some on their revamped O-line and lack of production from any WR not named Odunze. 

 

Hythloday1 over at ADQ has done his usual fine job of reviewing the opponent. His insights on why the mutts have underperformed on offense since Oct 14 warrant a look.

 

Duck Tape: Film Analysis Update of Washington 2023

WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM

---

A preview of Oregon’s Pac-12 Championship opponent in Las Vegas

 

 

While Penix seems to be dealing with some issue(s) that has him at less than peak performance, watch the clip that shows him throwing a dime to #1's back shoulder for a TD against WSU. Injury or no, that is a lethal and undefendable pass that he is still capable of making. The Ducks front seven will need to put enough pressure on Penix to make that throw tough to complete.

 

 

[Which Michael Penix Will Oregon Face Tonight?]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:39 AM, Haywarduck said:

I will add the next sentence might be, 'can I help you up, or do you need a moment?'

Perfect ending. Even Pac-12 refs would be hard pressed to throw a flag when OBD are being such gentlemen.

[Which Michael Penix Will Oregon Face Tonight?]

On 12/1/2023 at 6:24 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

I support a good, clean game with massive hits on Penix. There must be chaos and havoc in the husky backfield, all night long.......

Keep the hits clean, no emotional, late or stupid hits. No targeting, dammit! 15 yards for roughing the passer on a bang bang play will happen periodically but think about losing Dorlus or Burch to a targeting call in the 2nd quarter. That is the kind of bad that could flip this game to Fusky. 

 

Yeah, hit the guy early and often. He rapidly loses his throwing platform and gets inaccurate when he's about to get smacked. Let him constantly hear the pitter-patter of size 15 webbed feet. Make him have gametime single digit nightmares where the numbers #0, #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 and #9 float around his brain like little tweety birds. Keep him skittish and not setting his feet as he understands he won't see the next pressure that's coming. 

 

Keep it clean, smart and legit. And after every hit, sack and awkward landing, quietly reintroduce yourself saying "Hi Michael Jr, I'm Jordan, Brandon, Jeffrey, Tysheem, Jamal, etc. and I thought about you all week. Wanted to let you know that #33 is coming by next. Oh yeah and Bo for Heisman"

[Alabama Committed Offensive Pass Interference On Game Winning Play vs Auburn]

Watched that play a couple of times and I agree that the zebs swallowed their whistles on that push off on the final play. Consistent with how SEC refs 'let'em play'. 

 

While Bama was the beneficiary of that missed call, Auburn hurt themselves by taking a defender out of the play, sitting him 5 yds behind the LOS. He appeared to be a 'spy' on Milroe, but If he rushes maybe the Bama QB doesn't have an hour of time to find his receiver. Auburn killed themselves and in doing so made Oregon's path to the CFP more difficult. 

 

So Auburn does it again. War Eagle my fanny. And Dyer's knee was down, dammit!

[OBD Prediction Contest for Pac-12 Championship: Join Us!]

Oregon 

41-31

1 TO

2  Sacks 

365 yds passing

 

Penix may only get dropped twice but he will be harassed, pressured and smacked a dozen times. One errant pass gets picked off.

 

Bo gets 3 TDs thru the air and one on the ground. His Heisman will grace the other one in the display case. 

[The Most Nervous EVER? This is the WORST Week...]

On 11/30/2023 at 8:43 AM, ABNMoose said:

The Huskies also beat those same six teams (WSU, Utah, Cal, USC, ASU, OSU), but managed a double-digit victory in just two of

 

them. Oregon is simply eviscerating their competition." (emphasis mine)

 

Their polling is very interesting as well:

Glancing at the Fusky sites this week has been educational, particularly if you read between the lines a bit. I saw the poll that ABNMoose cited on how many points Fusky Fan thinks Oregon will score tomorrow. 78% thought it would be at least 29, 37% thought 36 or more and 10% at least 43 points

 

In the six games since Oct 14, UW has averaged 32 pts/game. Oregon has averaged 42 against essentially the same competition and had higher margins of victory because of how well the defense is playing. Given the tendency to minimize the prowess of the opponent in any rabid fan base, an admission by Fusky Fan that the Ducks could score more than the mutts average is telling.

 

I get the distinct impression from their fan sites that they are bravely spouting the party line of a UW victory, but are privately conceding that the numbers don't support it.

[The Most Nervous EVER? This is the WORST Week...]

On 11/29/2023 at 5:16 PM, idontrollonshobbas said:

If I were to use a Kingsford charcoal briquet as a suppository, by Friday's kickoff, it would be a diamond.

Idontroll, I have a business proposition for you. 

[CFP Prediction]

On 11/28/2023 at 7:43 PM, ElPatoUO said:

When I say a "clean" win, I mean that the Ducks don't win by help of some controversial call at the very end of the game, or rely on some last second Hail Mary, etc.

Funny that Bama is still in the conversation only because of a Hail Mary delivered against a team that lost to New Mexico State the previous week. 

 

 

While I don't think it will come down to a last second Vegas miracle for a Duck victory, I'll gladly bow my head, bend my knee and genuflect for a Hail Mary finale if that puts OBD in the playoff.

 

[Oregon Ducks Football: Huskies Being Underestimated?]

This scenario reminds me of 2014 where an unranked Arizona beat #2 Oregon at home. In the stunning loss at Autzen, Oregon made mistakes, allowed long drives and had too many penalties, including a critical roughing the passer on a sack that allowed Arizona to continue the final drive that won them the game.

 

Oregon then went on a 7-0 tear to finish, outscoring teams by 288-163.

 

The CG was a dominant 51-13 Oregon beatdown that was led by the defense shutting down #8 Arizona's 500+yd per game offense (granted with their backup QB) allowing only 25yds total in the first half. 

 

That was then and this is now. This 2023 Oregon team has a better defense and a comparable offense to the 2014 version. But as in 2014, the lessons learned from a loss resulted in an epic run to the Pac-12 CG.

 

Fusky has provided the Ducks with hours of game film against common opponents where they survived by the skin of their canines. Opponents that Oregon blew out decisively. Since that first match up in Seattle the mutts have had every potential weakness exposed. DL and staff will have both sides of the ball prepared.

 

Oregon must play smart and error free football, limiting the advantages that UW has at the WR position. The 9.5 line sounds about right given what these two teams have done since the last meeting. The Ducks are the more talented and deeper team overall but cannot underestimate an underDOG but still dangerous Fusky squad that is being told by the pundits and Vegas that they will lose. 

 

I'm hoping for a 2014 replay where the Oregon defense controls the LOS and OBD jumps out to a lead that Fusky can't overcome. Don't let them back in with inopportune penalties, iffy coaching decisions and mistakes. And please, oh please, don't let the outcome rest on a kick as time expires. My bet is they won't and the Ducks punch their ticket to the CFP.

[Oregon Moves Up in Penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings]

 

On 11/28/2023 at 4:58 PM, DanLduck said:

Assume the following:

Michigan wins.

FSU wins.

Oregon wins.

Texas wins.

Alabama wins.

 

The final poll is:

#1 Michigan 

#2 FSU

#3 Oregon 

#4 Alabama 

Dang. Don't tell me that I now have to root for Alabama. I like Oregon to win the whole thing with that lineup. Nope, I rather the Ducks not face the Dawgs but too much risk that they'd let two SEC teams in.

 

So....

 

Go Dawgs!

[Oregon’s Strange Red Zone Problem]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:07 AM, Charles Fischer said:

For everyone: that TD by Nix was NOT a called play. It was a classic Inside Zone Read from the Chip Kelly days,

Spot on, Charles. Really interesting that TFerg was so well positioned on the motion making me think that the play had a probability baked in that the LB/Edge would bite on the inside RB fake. The meld on the fake was so fast that it looked to me like Bucky knew he wasn't getting the ball. Masterful play call.

 

While I don't want to see Bo run if he doesn't have to, those zone reads and three pronged RPOs keep a defense guessing about if and when Bo will take off. Justin's runs the last two games of 2019-20 were something DCs hadn't planned on and they were very successful. They put Oregon in the Rose Bowl and then carried them to victory. 

 

So if the read is there, Go, Bo, Go!

 

 

[The ESPN Playoff Predictor and Oregon]

Fun exercise but I don't believe for a microsecond the CFP committee ices out a one loss SEC champ Alabama if Michigan, FSU, Texas and Oregon all win. That probability was set at 22% and the UGA v Bama spread is only 5 pts, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Would Bama leapfrog a Texas team they lost to at home (unlikely) or could Texas and Alabama get in with Pac-12 champion Oregon left out?

 

The new CFP rankings coming out tomorrow should clarify this and tell us how much cred Oregon has, but nothing is a lock. Personally I believe Oregon wins and they're in but this is the one scenario that makes me uncomfortable.

[Looking at the Crazy and Rare of Oregon’s 2023 Season]

On 11/26/2023 at 11:35 AM, Steven A said:

#bringbackChip 

Looks like he'll be available...

[Ducks to No. 5!]

If:

 

Oregon beats Fusky in Vegas.

Dawgs beat Bama in Altanta

Michigan beats Iowa in Indy.

FSU limps home against Louisville 

  in Charlotte 

 

IMHO, the CFP Final Four:

 

1. Georgia

2. Michigan 

3. FSU

4. OBD 

 

IMO the only thing that can screw this up (aside from an Oregon loss) is Georgia falling to Alabama and SEC bias putting both of them in and pushing Oregon out. 

[Looking at the Crazy and Rare of Oregon’s 2023 Season]

Charles, thanks for the eye popping 2023 OBD stats. Championship strength on both sides of the ball and in half of the kicking game. If Oregon can minimize the risk from that Achilles Heel (pun intended,  sadly) other half of the kicking game, the Pac-12 CG will be a win followed with a highly likely CFP berth.

[Ducks to No. 5!]

Coaches Poll. No real bearing on CFP ranking but if reinforced by the AP it'll be a trend that's hard to ignore. 

 

1. Georgia 

2. Michigan 

3. Fusky

4. FSU 

5. OBD

6. tOSU

7. Texas 

8. Alabama 

[Is Michael Penix Broken?]

On 11/26/2023 at 7:17 AM, Triphibius said:

Perhaps Washington's Penix is suffering from projectile dysfunction. 

All of the 'broken Penix' off color joking aside, Triphib's observation is not only the funniest of the day but IMO pretty darn accurate. He is not the same QB technically (maybe emotionally too) that sqeaked out a win against OBD six weeks ago. 

 

Almost all of the Fusky tight wins since the Oregon game have involved someone other than Penix rising (sorry) to the occasion and pulling them to a victory. 

 

While I believe that he will play a better game against Oregon than he has the last several opponents, Penix has shown weaknesses that DL, Tosh and crew will be able to exploit. The Ducks are at least one offensive TD and one defensive stop better than UW going into Vegas. Probably more if OBD can play four quarters of complete football. 

 

If Oregon's defense can:

 

Pressure Penix into quick decisions and throws with smart blitzing and a double dose of Dorlus and Burch;

 

Keep Odunze from going off with strategic situational double teams and deep safety help as needed;

 

Bottle up the UW run game with sound D-line gap integrity;

 

Keep the short passing game in check with disciplined ILB play;

 

...then Oregon will win.

 

The major concern I have with the Fusky defense is that they have played well in the 4th qtr. Trice has been effective on the edge and  Muhammad has been close to a lock down DB in coverage. But if Oregon runs it's offense like it has the past 6 weeks, gets Bucky and James going (they should as UW is suspect against the run) and Bo distributes the ball, they are two scores better than the Purple Poodles.

 

And please, oh please don't let this game be a three point affair in the 4th. The only place where Fusky has a relative advantage is with their kicker. Oregon's main vulnerability is a potential replay of October 14 and needs to be up by those two scores late in the game.

 

 

 

[Wowsa! First Time Entrant Wins OBD Civil War Prediction Contest!]

Congrats, Abūelo Pato! Welcome to the flock. You nailed the defense's ability to hold the Beav's to under two TDs.

[Is Michael Penix Broken?]

No one on the OBD site should delude themselves about Penix being 'broken'. His play has not been as stellar in the last several games as it was before the Fuskys got their skin of the teeth win over Oregon. Maybe he is nursing an injury but don't count him out. They have still managed to win every game even if Penix has not looked great.

 

The Petulant Purple Poodle Piddlers have won on solid defense and their skill players like Odunze continuing to play at a high level even if Penix hasn't. Oregon, particularly the defense, needs to operate next Friday at the level we have seen in the last several games. 

 

Like U$C earlier in the year, UW has been just barely getting by, eking out wins over teams they should beat by at least two scores. They nearly got beat at home by a WSU team they should have buried. That doesn't mean they won't play their best against the Ducks.

 

A focused, disciplined Oregon team will expose those weaknesses, but the defense will need to play even better than how they played yesterday. Without Florence it will be a taller task. Manning had a good  Civil War with a nice pick, but he was inconsistent and got a stupid PF penalty. The Fusky receivers are at a different level than OSU's and won't suffer fool's lightly.

 

If the front seven can get pressure on Penix and the DBs can keep Odunze and Polk from big explosive plays, it'll be a long day for the Fuskys and a fun one for OBDs. Oregon is the better team, peaking at the right time and should win by two scores. But they've gotta play lights out.

[Is Camden Lewis Broken?]

I would maintain it is less the 'yips' and more a technical issue with either his left foot plant or the angle his right foot is hitting the ball. Lewis is consistently pushing the ball right on his FG attempts and even on his PATs. Like a golfer that is struggling with a slice because of club head position at the strike.

 

I'm sure his confidence to hit the ball square is shaken, but if he can correct the mechanics, he'll improve. Maybe it's because there isn't a good alternative but Lanning seems to be willing to stay with him for now. We fans will have to as well.

[GameDay Thread for Civil War Game: Join Us!]

Bo's eyes were straight downfield to to keep the safeties frozen as he rolled right and then throws across his body 40+ yards for essentially a no look pass to #11.

 

That's a true Heisman moment.

[GameDay Thread for Civil War Game: Join Us!]

Lewis is just not technically sound and keeps pushing it right. This is going to bite the Ducks sooner or later.

[OBD Prediction Contest for Civil War!]

Oregon

41-24

1 TO

2 sacks 

375 yds passing

 

The Beavs will try to slow the game down and their run game will have some success. Bo, Troy, Tez, TFerg and Co. will take the top of off the defense but won't finish every drive with a TD. Lewis will actually step up with a couple FGs.

 

The defense will play with their hair on fire, pick off DJU once and get enough stops to let Autzen rock "Shout" at the end of three. No 4th qtr let down this year. Dorlus plays like a man possessed, the center of the D-line does their part and Jacobs and Williams get Martinez to the ground. 

[Eight Million a Year...for THIS?]

I think it was a coaching moment as well...

 

"JPJ, next game I think we'll go with velcro. And Bo says to not hike the ball as far as you threw your shoe"