mikethehiker

I’m getting increasingly concerned about a one loss Alabama defeating an unbeaten Georgia for the SEC title. If Alabama wins out, there securing a playoff spot. But would they leave two time defending champion Georgia out with one loss? I would feel much better if FSU finally loses. It’s hard to think FSU’s program has made the jump to go unbeaten, but ACC is offering little resistance. Also expecting Texas to lose once more.

This is what absolutely sucks EVERY SINGLE YEAR. SEC will begin taking over the polls because they are playing Directional State late in the year while half of the Pac-12 is adding another conference loss. Yes, SEC has been better on the field, however the entire conference finishes better in the poles with fewer losses and then amazingly start higher the following season (repeat the process). 8 vs 9 conference games, FBS leagues were never an apples to apples comparison. How this system has persisted for two decades and Pac-12 athletic directors allowed it is beyond me.

Appreciate everyone's thoughts. I don't think the playoff committee is trying to predict the future today. It's a snapshot on what each team has accomplished so far. It will be telling what the committee does with Washington. They haven't played inspired football the last two weeks, while other teams struggled earlier. The committee likely won't care, but the bottom of the PAC-12 is looking really strong now and there is truly not one gimme game for anyone in the conference. Cal, ASU, Arizona, and Stanford are all playing with a ton of confidence right now which may land Colorado at the bottom of the conference at year end. How could you leave the only unbeaten team in the deepest conference in the country outside the Top 4?

The first playoff ranking will be released tomorrow. It's fun to try and predict the first one, because the subsequent ones are all adjustments based on incremental results. I'll take a swing at the Top 10: 1. Ohio State 8-0 (best overall resume, although it hasn't always looked pretty) 2. Florida St. 8-0 (wins at Clemson, and home against Duke and LSU resonate) 3. Washington 8-0 (best overall win against Oregon, solid non conference schedule) 4. Georgia 8-0 (will get dinged for non-conference schedule, but also defending champs) 5. Michigan 8-0 (they should be punished for a lot of things and bad non-conference schedule is one of those things) 6. Oregon 7-1 (if you're going to lose, lose dramatically to a team ranked ahead of you on the road) 7. Texas 7-1 (big win at a struggling Alabama early on, respectable loss) 8. Alabama 7-1 (slowly but surely recovering from early loss to Texas) 9. Oklahoma 7-1 (tough good loss on the road in crazy weather conditions) 10. Penn State 7-1 (I wish I only had to play 2 tough games per year and lose convincingly each time) What's your prediction?

Cam Ward at #43 and #62 last week? No thanks.

"Utah's Cinderella story is over."

I'm not sure if this is the toughest game, but it is the KEY game. In my mind, if we take care of business at home, we had to win @Washington or @Utah. I have a lot of respect for Utah and this game will be tough. However, Oregon has the most balanced (unarguably) and the most explosive (arguably) offense in the country. As long as we don't get cute on offense and take the 3 points when available, we should escape with a win.

Beating the dead horse here on 4th down decisions. I knew this was likely going to come up again this year and I don't envy anyone making these decisions with a 40 second play clock breathing down your neck. Much of these decision making approaches are established prior to the game. In a bit of defense of Dan Lanning in the context of the game right before the half. Washington had just scored touchdowns on three straight possessions before Oregon got a bit of luck on the interception when the Husky receiver slipped coming out of his break. There was no indication that Penix and Co. were slowing down anytime soon. Grabbing the lead may have felt necessary at the time to Lanning with the opportunity to create separation after halftime. Hindsight can't just add points to the scoreboard as if no other events would have changed. It was a phenomenal game and I just wish we came out on top.

Thanks Jordan. Some real positives from this game: -Unlike the performances of USC and Washington State, this game did HUGE favors for the PAC-12 as a whole. The country got to see playoff level competition from NFL level talent. A perfect mix of offensive and defensive playmaking from grown men. -Most pundits gave the contest "Game of the Year" vibes. Voters and playoff committee will favor Oregon/Washington when they think about the kind of matchups they want to see in the future. -Oregon was better at possessing the football with a 32-24 edge in first downs and 34:21 to 25:39 edge in time of possession. -Only 5 penalties and 0 turnovers. Ducks played nearly mistake free football in a very hostile environment. One of those penalties was a phantom PI call on Bridges. -Outgaining Washington 541-415 in total yards. -All passes were contested. I haven't rewatched game film, but the point should be made that there were no blown assignments. Many of those passes required an NFL arm throwing to NFL hands. -Washington HAD to win this game. Every contender HAS to win their home games. With that said, Oregon won almost every key indicator except final score and OBD had the game in hand with 1st and 10 near midfield with 3:15 to go. Oregon is a great football team and we still own our destiny!

Chip's 4th down aggression almost always came with a tactical advantage of speed and personnel. It was usually short yardage when the defense still had nickel and dime personnel on the field. The offense knew the play call based on the situation and executed quickly. I had the Ducks losing one game on the road this year and I figured it would be Washington. Every goal remains achievable this year and no contender has beaten another contender on the road yet. Ducks will run the table and make the playoff. Payback in the PAC-12 title game will be sweet when media will be singing the Washington praise and Penix for Heisman. It will resemble the Colorado beat down.

Excellent keys to the game Alex! Ball control will be so important and it will be an interesting chess match as I'm sure the leg lifters will load up to make Oregon as one dimensional as they are. I'm also worried about the opponent going for it on 4th down in a possession battle. The best way to discourage this is not just sacks, but especially 3rd down sacks!

I also think two losses will be enough to knock anyone out of the PAC-12 title game. There are seven contenders in Oregon, USC, Washington, Utah, OSU, UCLA, and WSU. The race for the title game won't begin to take shape until one of these teams beats another contender on the road. To this early point in the season, the home teams have taken care of business. Oregon gets their shot Saturday. List or road games: Oregon: @Wash, @Utah USC: @Oregon Wash: @USC, @OSU Utah: @USC, @Wash (lost @OSU) OSU: @Oregon (lost @WSU) UCLA: @OSU, @USC (lost @Utah) WSU: @Oregon, @Wash (lost @UCLA) None of the other games will be gimmies this year but looking at the road tests above, USC may have the easiest path by just taking care of business at home.

I'm so excited for the big game this weekend and the opening kickoff can't get here soon enough! Most coaches are now electing to defer the choice to receive the kickoff to the 2nd half of games after winning the opening coin toss. In most situations, this sound strategy is an attempt to steal an extra possession by closing out the second half with the ball and getting it again after the break. One obvious way for this to backfire is that the team receiving the opening kickoff also has last possession. The other way this backfires is the opportunity to keep a potent offense off the field like we saw in the first half of the Stanford game. One stalled drive and you could be down by two scores, losing big in time of possession and digging an early hole. Against Stanford it was a couple of field goals, but against Washington or USC it could be a couple of touchdowns. As I watched the Stanford game and saw the Ducks possess the ball for 3 plays and 6 yards in the first quarter, I thought, "This cannot happen in our upcoming games." So the question is, "Would Coach Lanning rather possess the ball to open the game vs Washington or defer to the 2nd half?" By receiving the opening kickoff, I see an opportunity to jump ahead of Washington and put a little bit of pressure on both their offense and defense - something they haven't really faced all season. By staying at least one score ahead, it greatly reduces the opponent's margin for error. Playing with the lead on the road will allow both our offense and defense to play "downhill". The question isn't so much about probability of possessions, but more around dictating the flow of the game. For most other opponents, I would defer to the 2nd half. It's an either/or choice IF you win the coin toss. I'm interested in what our OBD community would do in Dan Lanning's shoes and why...

SEC has to move to 9 game conference schedule, right?

You're not the only one. And it's nothing like the NFL where players are under contract and there are salary caps. The mandatory 1 year sit-out must be restored with the exception of graduate transfers (like Bo Nix) or transfers to a FCS. I also support a 1 year sit out for head coaches to other D-I programs. What's good for the players is good for the coaches. The unfortunate part of the new NIL and transfer portal anarchy is that I believe it will greatly reduce the parity brought on by the 85 player scholarship limit. College football will never achieve NFL-like parity, but it had a much greater chance when coaches recruited right, built cohesive units over 3-4 years, and took advantage of rebuilding years for perennial power houses.

He looked to be in much better shape walking around on the sidelines at the end of the game after laboring in the first half. Easy decision to leave him out for the rest of the game. He stayed in full pads and celebrated with teammates after the game for quite a while. I asked Khyree if he was OK and he gave me a thumbs up FWIW. Video shows him walking comfortably.

What’s disappointing is to see the top 3 B1G teams all ranked higher than every PAC12 team implying that B1G is head and shoulders above PAC12. At the same time all the pundits declare the PAC12 as the best conference this year. We’ll never fully know because the PAC12 will now start beating the crud out of each other while the talent gap between the top 3 B1G teams and the rest of their conference is so vast, they only have to worry about two conference games each year. It definitely puts the PAC at a disadvantage. My prediction is that every team in the country has at least one loss heading into the bowl season with the exception of the B1G Champ unless those top 3 teams rock/paper/scissor each other which is possible if Penn St can finally get over the hump.

I definitely think they SHOULD be in Seattle for the Oregon vs. Washington. The other side of that coin is that Oregon could be featured on Gameday for any 4 of their next 5 games. The other hot spot in Week 7 could be Chapel Hill, NC where Miami at North Carolina could be an undefeated showdown. Not sure if/when Gameday has been to Chapel Hill and it gives them a chance to hype Drake Maye. We are always up against an east coast bias, but to make matters worse, it's a 7am vs 10am start time for everyone involved.

A little more energy finally on the Duck sideline; even a few smiles. Team has seemed tight and lethargic. Definitely need to rid some demons in this place.

K. Jackson walking it out here on the sideline. Walking very gingerly, favoring hip.

24-20 Beavers. Home field is HUGE this year in the PAC, because every team and fan base is frothing at the mouth with this being the last year. Utah will rest Cam Rising, until they need him. He makes his first appearance tonight, but Beaver D is a tough first night and it's not enough.

I said at the time that Oregon was blessed with a tough road win against TT when they easily could have lost. As others have stated above, Washington hasn't been tested. When you finally play a team at your level, the same running lanes aren't there, the passing windows shrink, you have less time for routes to develop and throw the ball, your extra defender in the box needs to stay in coverage, and uncharacteristic penalties can pile up. Both coaches and players are forced to think, learn, and make adjustments on the fly. Oregon has had the luxury of this experience already in game (which they survived) and continue to make improvements based on those learnings in the following weeks. It certainly doesn't guarantee success, but the experience will make a difference. Go Ducks!

100% agree it will be extremely tough to win in Washington, but big picture is that it's not the first game we need to win; it's the second game in the PAC-12 championship. As much as I'd love to win every game, the formula is simple for any team aspiring to win the PAC-12 this year: protect your home field and limit yourself to one road loss. No one is getting through the season unscathed. For Oregon, that means protecting our home field against USC, WSU, and OSU. Then steal a victory in Washington or Utah (and stop losing at ASU).

No.

Indirect comparisons can be fun predictors for Saturday's outcome and we do have a few clues. I think the key to all of our clues is Wyoming who appears to have a solid team if you ask Texas Tech and Texas. Wyoming competed at the LOS in both of those contests with the following rushing yard comparisons: 171-93 vs. Texas Tech 155-185 vs. Texas Oregon's win against Texas Tech will look better as the season rolls along and Tech's loss to Wyoming will look understandable. Shoot Wyoming hung with Texas in Austin for 3 quarters who had just beaten Alabama. Texas Tech is a more complete team than Colorado and so is Washington State (as shown against Colorado St.). Colorado had a gutsy win against TCU (no doubt) who had nothing really to scout with the Coach Sanders makeover. However, Nebraska (who cannot complete a vertical pass) outrushed Colorado 222 - 58. I expect to see similar stats for Oregon Saturday, unless QB Sanders decides to take off more often (Shough had 101 of Tech's 174 yards against us). This game should be sponsored by Tostitos with all the chips we'll see on shoulders of players and coaches. Colorado will fight hard, but Oregon will cover at home. Too much talent and the Ducks will be very motivated for this one.