2022 Average Number of Viewers for P5 and G5 Teams - Does Pac-10 Expansion Make Sense? - Media Markets versus Eyes On the Prize

[Jon Joseph]

The following numbers come from Media.com and are the average number of viewers for all 133 P5 and G5 programs during the 2022 season. As Charles has so correctly pointed out, Oregon finished 7 overall in the number of total folks watching the Ducks in 2022; again, this is a ranking of the average number of people who tuned in to watch a given team play ball. 

 

First, let's take a look at the top 10 and disabuse ourselves of the notion that media market size ipso facto correlates to the number of people tuning in. With streaming of sporting events on the way the number of folks who buy in to watch will matter more than the media market in which a team is located.

 

1. Ohio State - located in a medium size city in Ohio led the way with an average of 5.8M fans tuning in.

 

2. Alabama - Tuscaloosa, AL. is not a booming metropolis. 

 

3. Michigan - Detroit is a good-sized but not a huge market.

 

4. Tennessee - Knoxville is not a large market.

 

5. Georgia - Atlanta is a huge market.

 

6. Notre Dame - Win one for the Gipper but the market size does not wake up the echoes.

 

7. LSU - Baton Rogue and New Orleans are not huge markets.

 

8. Texas - Austin is a big market and Texas folk are crazy about football.

 

9. Penn State - Happy Valley may be happy but it is also obscure. 

 

10. Clemson - It's a beautiful college town but Clemson, SC is a two-traffic-light burg. 

 

Looking at the above list it's easy to see that brand and the actual number of folks watching trump the number of potential eyes on the prize.

 

Let's look at how the Pac-10 was ranked in 2022 (USC came in at 14 and UCLA at 25) with the understanding that conference numbers suffered from broadcasts on a functionally insolvent network and by many kick-offs of the best games coming at 10:30 PM Eastern time. The network going away and hopefully being replaced by a better media platform will help with part of the problem but you cannot fix geography.

 

12. OREGON - 2.210 M - The Portland/Eugene market wins out over the LA market twice. Which is nice. 

 

33. UTAH - 1.6 M - A pain in Puddles booty but a good addition.

 

34. WASHINGTON - 1.150 M -  Little brother lives up north.

 

41. WASHINGTON STATE -  907 K -Who knew? One of the smallest media markets in the conference punches way above its weight class. 

 

45. CAL - 857K - Show me the money, Bruins.

 

47. STANFORD - 846 K - Notre Dame likely helps the Cardinal cause.

 

57. OREGON STATE - 625 K - Punching above its weight class against far larger media markets.

 

61. ARIZONA - 506 K - Wait for basketball season.

 

66. COLORADO - 353 K - The investment in a new coach is Primed to bring in a far better ROI.

 

70. ASU - 314 K - Dilly has his hands full. This based on market size is a bad showing. 

 

What do the numbers look like for G5 add-ons to the Pac-10?

 

64. Tulane - 354 K

 

65. Boise State - 353 K

 

71. SMU - 312 K

 

79. Fresno State - 220 K

 

85. San Diego State - 198 K.

 

None of the above argue for a reduction in the current 10% media share, augmented by a larger cut of the proceeds from the expanded college football playoff and hopefully also by the basketball tournament shares. 

 

Based on the 2022 numbers, what teams would be the best choice to create a Power 3, 16-team conference?

 

10. CLEMSON - 3 M

 

12. OREGON - 2.21 M

 

13. TCU - 2.2 M

 

15. FSU - 2.03 M

 

24. OK ST - 1.68 M

 

29. BAYLOR - 1.3 M 

 

30. KANSAS ST - 1.23 M

 

33. UTAH -  1.16 M

 

34. WASHINGTON - 1.15 M

 

38. BYU - 997 K

 

41. WASHINGTON ST - 907 K

 

42. NC ST - 881 K 

 

45. CAL - 857 K

 

46. UNC - 849 K (behind NC ST and CAL!)

 

47. STANFORD - 846 K

 

48. SYRACUSE - 841 K

 

It's water over the dam but dam it, the Pac could have added B12 orphans and been recognized as a 'good guy' while destroying a competitor. How often does this happen in the world of big business? 

 

Here are a few other candidates oft mentioned, especially the ACC teams, in speculative expansion by the B1G and the SEC. Other than Clemson and FSU, how would any other ACC team benefit the SEC's bottom line? And if expansion was predicated on media numbers, why would the B1G add UNC and UVA and not Oregon and UW?

 

FYI - 49. GEORGIA TECH/ 54. TX TECH - 680 K/ 59. MIAMI  - 608 K/ LOUISVILLE - 496 K/ BC - 322 K/ 75. VIRGINIA TECH - 237 K/ 78. VIRGINIA - 220 K/ 93. DUKE - 115,700

 

Meanwhile, it's clear based on these numbers that Oregon is in a superlative position no matter the way in which conference affiliation might shift. Stay cool cats.

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

This is the nonsense I am talking about. First, who are Patrick's unknown sources? 2nd, the conference and potential media partners would be wrong not to investigate the numbers additions to the Pac-10 would drop to the bottom line. But looking at the above media numbers why would the conference be in a rush to add any of the teams Patrick discusses? Why add the San Diego and DFW markets if a minuscule number of fans are watching SDSU and SMU play football?

 

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/dan-patrick-smu-and-sdsu-to-the-pac-12-is-likely-boise-state-and-unlv-maybe

 

[David Marsh]

Nice numbers here Jon.

 

Media markets are all wishful thinking in a lot of ways. 

 

I think SMU and SDSU would make fine additions but they should get an equal payout for a few years. I say they'll need five years to adjust to the power five and cultivate their fan bases. 

 

Both are serious about expanding their brands and given time they'll be good additions but they aren't really instant money. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

JJ thanks for all that information. It's alot to take in and digest. Some good stuff to ponder.

 

Some of my thoughts i have mentioned before, so i apologize for the repetition. But with ESPN on the chopping block, with a potential change of management the landscape has changed.

 

On the business side, i agree with you that the PAC missed out on an unusual business opportunity to eliminate a competitor. And then be able to assimilate that competitors best remaining properties. Once in a lifetime for sure.

 

Originally, the slimeball USC President actively worked the room to stop expansion. However, the PAC 10 had the opportunity after the traitors made the announcement. They missed an opportunity to control the landscape.

 

Had the PAC brought in at a minimum of 6 Big 12 teams then Fox and the failing ESPN networks would have had no choice to offer the PAC 16 a linear deal.

 

Water under the bridge.

 

Two thoughts at this point:

 

First, Wazzu and Beavus carry numbers far above their weight because they play Utah, uw and Oregon, as well as the traitors. Those games are must watch TV because Wazzu and Beavus can, will and have won some of those games. SDSU and SMU numbers will rise significantly as a P5 member and playing against 3 or 4 Top 25 teams every year.

 

Big difference in viewing numbers, playing Utah, as opposed to Fresno State or whoever SMU plays, for either school.

 

Oregon at SMU at 7 pm CST/ 5 pm PST would draw a few million eyes on linear TV.  Texas fans will watch that game.

 

Second, market share and eyeballs dont matter as much for streaming companies. Amazon wants millions of new Prime Subscriptions, the monthly fees and opportunity to promote the products they offer.

 

Amazon is in the business of moving and selling products. If covering a conference's sports brings millions of new MONTHLY subscribers then it is a success.

 

SMU, SDSU, BSU and UNLV could bring in many new suscribers. Now, I am confident that many PAC 10 fans already have Amazon or Apple subscriptions. But those streaming giants want more.

 

Once, whichever Streamer secures the TIER 1 Media rights, they can sell the TIER 2 rights to linear providers. They can recoup millions and minimize their investment. All in the name of new subscriptions.

 

Consider that the brain trust at Disney/ESPN/ABC made the decision to move ESPN to streaming subscriptions. A decision to eliminate the middleman and be a part of the sports media broadcast future.

 

IMHO, with no facts or sources, once ESPN went up for sale or for a new managing partnership, the PAC media deal went on hold. Its not dead, just on hold.

 

WHY?

 

Because whatever streamer controls ESPN has media contracts with the SEC, ACC and splits Big 12 with Fox. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for a streamer that wants sports content. This will take awhile to unfold, especially if Amazon, Apple and Google start a bidding war.

 

ESPN will eventually bring millions of monthly subscribers ro the winner. Not ro mention that cable will take a huge hit. This is business, big business.

 

The PAC whatever may very well be in the right place at the right time. Buckle up because we may have to wait until early 2024 for this all to unfold.

 

We all have been talking about the future and the changes coming. ESPN just opened the door for the Streaming Giants to jump into the deep end of the pool on those changes.

[Jon Joseph]

"There are three kind of lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics."  Mark Twain (although Twain attributed this to Benjamin Disraeli.)

 

The parties responsible for this tripe should be drawn and quartered. Well, at least fired. The Beavers with a bigger fan base than the Ducks? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiigt!

 

Oregon Football: New study shows questionable view of Ducks fanbase

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

---

Oregon’s fanbase is how big? A new study claims that the Ducks have a way smaller following than you might think. We...

 

[David Marsh]

On 7/21/2023 at 7:58 AM, Jon Joseph said:

"There are three kind of lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics."  Mark Twain (although Twain attributed this to Benjamin Disraeli.)

 

The parties responsible for this tripe should be drawn and quartered. Well, at least fired. The Beavers with a bigger fan base than the Ducks? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiigt!

 

Oregon Football: New study shows questionable view of Ducks fanbase

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

---

Oregon’s fanbase is how big? A new study claims that the Ducks have a way smaller following than you might think. We...

 

And UCLA has one of the biggest fan bases??? 

 

Then why can't they fill the rose bowl every Saturday? Or even just some Saturdays. The cameras work very hard to not show how many empty seats but you can still tell the thing is maybe only half full. 

 

No idea how they did that study ... 

[David Marsh]

On 7/21/2023 at 10:22 AM, cartm25 said:

@Jon Joseph Now you're talking dirty to me . . . You know I love the idea of the "Coast to Coast Conference"

 

I'd add in Miami, Duke, Virginia, Louisville for both football and basketball reasons.

Really for a coast to coast conference to work would be to have really two 8-10 team conferences (or divisions I suppose) on both coasts. That way they can play the majority of their games on their coast. That would keep travel expenses reasonable. 

 

Then you could reasonably have 2 cross over games a year... One home and one away and the travel expenses would still be good. 

 

Winner of each division plays for the championship... Or you go real crazy and turn it into a mini playoff. 

 

Atlantic Division Championship game and a Pacific Division Championship game. Then you get the Coastal Championship Game. 

 

One of the things I kinda linked for the mess that was the 2020 season was how at the end of the year there were cross division games between teams that had similar records but didn't play each other in the shortened season. 

 

I would like this to be built into a coastal conference to get another interesting cross division game in place as well. 

 

But to make a coastal conference work it would really need to be two conferences that meet up for some regular events but it can't be too frequent because of the cost.

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/21/2023 at 12:55 PM, David Marsh said:

And UCLA has one of the biggest fan bases??? 

 

Then why can't they fill the rose bowl every Saturday? Or even just some Saturdays. The cameras work very hard to not show how many empty seats but you can still tell the thing is maybe only half full. 

 

No idea how they did that study ... 

I think the survey was conducted in a pub in Las Vegas that is open 24/7. Or, the proverbial 1,000 monkeys each with a keyboard? PUZZLING to say the least.

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/21/2023 at 1:43 PM, David Marsh said:

Really for a coast to coast conference to work would be to have really two 8-10 team conferences (or divisions I suppose) on both coasts. That way they can play the majority of their games on their coast. That would keep travel expenses reasonable. 

 

Then you could reasonably have 2 cross over games a year... One home and one away and the travel expenses would still be good. 

 

Winner of each division plays for the championship... Or you go real crazy and turn it into a mini playoff. 

 

Atlantic Division Championship game and a Pacific Division Championship game. Then you get the Coastal Championship Game. 

 

One of the things I kinda linked for the mess that was the 2020 season was how at the end of the year there were cross division games between teams that had similar records but didn't play each other in the shortened season. 

 

I would like this to be built into a coastal conference to get another interesting cross division game in place as well. 

 

But to make a coastal conference work it would really need to be two conferences that meet up for some regular events but it can't be too frequent because of the cost.

Great thoughts. How about an Atlantic and Pacific division for all sports other than football and men's basketball with the champions of the sports playing for a conference title? And with scheduling for other sports augmented as agreed upon.

 

I see football with 8 games intra-division and 2 games cross-division. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/21/2023 at 1:22 PM, cartm25 said:

@Jon Joseph Now you're talking dirty to me . . . You know I love the idea of the "Coast to Coast Conference"

 

I'd add in Miami, Duke, Virginia, Louisville for both football and basketball reasons.

Great thoughts. I see the ACC remaining as-is with the possibility that Notre Dame would be forced to join the Atlantic Division as a full-time football matter. If the ND/ACC scheduling agreement was to disappear the Domers football program would most likely have to join the ACC or the B1G to remain viable.

 

I'd add 4 schools to the 10-team Pacific Division - SDSU, UNLV, SMU, and Tulane. An alternative to two divisions would be to go with three, 8-team divisions for football and men's basketball.  

[Jon Joseph]

Great take Woad. The BT is 3-7 in the playoff. Ohio State is 3-4 with 1 title, Michigan is 0-2 and Michigan State is 0-1.

 

The SEC talks the big talk and takes it to the fields of play. The BT, not so much? Spot on in regard to geography. I am hoping that streaming will give the Pac better kickoff time options.

 

Best of luck to the Tar Heels in 2023.

[HappyToBeADuck]

A great deal of thoughts to ponder Woad.

 

Your point about viewing geography is well stated. This west coast fan rarely watches an ACC football game. Except the last few weeks of the season when i am rooting for any ACC team to beat Clemson.

 

Why? Because i want a PAC school to get a CFP invite, not an ACC school. Nothing against the ACC, I love and root for the ACC agsinst the SEC.

 

My fan interest is regional not national until mid November. Because thosr games start clarifying the national picture.

 

Also, how many ACC fans have a viewing interest in a 10:30 pm kickoff between west coast teams?

 

The PAC and ACC contests would draw both coastal viewing audiences. Maybe the numbers that matter to linear providers and streamers.

 

A 4 pm pst/7 pm est kickoff between UNC/OREGON or GT vs WSU or Duke/Stanford or any combo would draw the coastal viewing audience. Or kickoffs at 1 pm est/10 am ost will work.

 

These games will pull coastal fans away from Fox big games.

 

Both conferences should be pro active and create a greater brand. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Utah, uw and Oregon are brands that can stand with PSU, Michigan, t OSU and usuck for fan interest 

 

The BIG and FOX are bullies. They are confident that any of those schools will come running and panting when they get the invite to the BIG. Just like usuck did.....

 

BIG is overated as a conference.

 

SEC is king of football

 

ACC/Big 12 rules MBB.

 

The perception the PAC has is well earned. Until a PAC school wins a Natty not much will change.

 

Looking forward to UNC claiming an ACC football title this season.

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Smith72
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