Transitive Property in Application to Oregon

[Duckman2]

Oregon’s sole loss is to Washington. Oregon is now the only team that UW has a chance of losing to. So Oregon looks very good transitive property wise.

 

Now, let’s look at Texas and Alabama as a comparison. Alabama lost to Texas, which lost to Oklahoma, which lost to Oklahoma State and Kansas. Among Oklahoma’s State’s losses is a 33-7 loss to South Alabama. So Texas and Alabama look a lot worse transitive property wise.

 

Now, let’s look at close wins. Oregon has one close run, over Texas Tech. Alabama had three close wins (Auburn, Arkansas, aTM) and Texas also has 3 close wins (KSU, Houston, TCU). So Oregon does a lot better in the close win department. 
 

Furthermore, Texas’ close win over Kansas State was achieved in a total joke manner, with Texas only winning because KSU missed both an extra point and a 25 yardish field goal in the 4th quarter. Alabama’s win over Auburn was achieved in an even bigger joke manner, due to Auburn rushing 2, putting 8 guys in the end zone and leaving one guy doing nothing on a 4th and 31. Alabama  and Texas had absolutely nothing to do with their opponent’s missed kicks and horrendous 4th and 31 defense. 

 

Bottom line: If Oregon beats Washington, yet misses the playoffs anyway, it will be an indefensible disgrace.

[Mic]

"Transitive property-wise".  Now there's a term I haven't heard in awhile.  Trying to remember what it's all about.  

[Duckman2]

On 11/28/2023 at 1:41 PM, Mic said:

"Transitive property-wise".  Now there's a term I haven't heard in awhile.  Trying to remember what it's all about.  

The bottom line is that Oregon’s only loss would be to a team that hasn’t lost to anybody except for Oregon. 
 

On the other hand, Texas has lost to 2 loss OU, which has lost to 3 and 4 loss teams, who have in turn lost to even worse teams (including South Alabama.) It shouldn’t get any more clear cut for the committee than that. 
 

 

[Mic]

Transitive property - that's a mathematical term, no?  

 

I see what you mean and if the selection committee were really interested in such things I can definitely see your point.  After all, they sort of use the same principle in reverse when determining SOS and who has the best wins.  As Texas's screaming illustrates.  "But, we beat Alabama!"

[Duckman2]

On 11/28/2023 at 1:48 PM, Mic said:

Transitive property - that's a mathematical term, no?  

 

I see what you mean and if the selection committee were really interested in such things I can definitely see your point.  After all, they sort of use the same principle in reverse when determining SOS and who has the best wins.  As Texas's screaming illustrates.  "But, we beat Alabama!"

 

Yeah, exactly.

So far, the committee has been ranking Oregon ahead of both Texas and Alabama precisely because they are applying the transitive property properly. And it's really 100% certain they'll continue to apply the transitive property this week and have Oregon at #5, Ohio State at #6, Texas at #7 and Alabama at #8.

 

What's scary is not this week but next week, if Alabama beats Georgia. Really, that should just mean that Texas should be ahead of Alabama, who should be ahead of Georgia, and that Oregon and Washington should  be ahead of all 3 of those teams. But it's far from a given that the committee will see things that way. (In fact, it's pretty much a given that they'd rank Washington behind most if not all 3 of those teams.)

[Mic]

On 11/28/2023 at 11:00 AM, Duckman2 said:

What's scary is not this week but next week, if Alabama beats Georgia. Really, that should just mean that Texas should be ahead of Alabama, who should be ahead of Georgia, and that Oregon and Washington should  be ahead of all 3 of those teams

I can't really see this Alabama team (which was lucky in the extreme to beat even Auburn) beating Georgia.  But, I guess anything can happen. Alabama is teetering on the edge of elimination instead of dominating weaker supposedly weaker teams.  (much like UW)

Edited November 28, 2023 by Mic

[Duckman2]

On 11/28/2023 at 2:04 PM, Mic said:

I can't really see this Alabama team (which was lucky in the extreme to beat even Auburn) beating Georgia.  But, I guess anything can happen. Alabama is teetering on the edge of elimination instead of dominating weaker supposedly weaker teams.  

 

Georgia is a 5 point favorite IIRC. It really wouldn't be that huge of an upset. Georgia themselves really hasn't looked as good as previous years. (In fact, they were at a marginal risk of going to overtime vs a 6-6 Georgia Tech team in the last 3 or 4 minutes.) And really Georgia's unspectacular performance this year is all the more of a reason why Oregon should be ranked ahead of both Alabama and Georgia if Alabama beats Georgia.
 

Vaulting #8 over #5 after the #5 team beats the #3 team and the #8 team beats the #1 team would be ridiculous and completely unprecedented. It would be even worse than vaulting Ohio State to #4 because they beat #13 Wisconsin 59-0 on a week where TCU beat 2-10  Iowa State 55-3 and Baylor didn't play. But who knows what gifts the committee might give the SEC.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Duckman2

[Steven A]

On 11/28/2023 at 10:41 AM, Mic said:

"Transitive property-wise".  Now there's a term I haven't heard in awhile.  Trying to remember what it's all about.

Agreed, made me look at my tax bill to make sure I wasn't being overtaxed for being transitive.

[Flyin Vee]

Can you white board this for me....

[Duckman2]

On 11/29/2023 at 7:11 AM, Flyin Vee said:

Can you white board this for me....

 

Oregon's only loss is to Washington. By the end of the year, Washington will be a one loss team, whose loss will be to..... Oregon.

 

Let's look at Alabama and Texas as a contrast. Alabama has lost to Texas, who lost to Oklahoma, who lost to Oklahoma State, who lost to South Alabama. South Alabama is a 6-6 Sun Belt team.