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Charles Fischer

As I Predicted: NIL Has Changed the NFL Draft...Dramatically

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A year or so back...when everyone was wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth about how NIL was going to ruin college football forever, and how this was the beginning of the end....I brought up in this forum that an ancillary positive benefit of NIL would be to encourage players to stay an extra year, and not declare for the NFL draft early. It wasn't going to be all-bad...

 

It would help the player get paid more that next year if they were projected to be a low round draft pick, and it would help the player climb higher in the draft after his senior year.  But it also would help the NFL having more seasoned players coming to them, and goodness knows how it helps CFB teams have MUCH better teams, thus a more entertaining product on the field. 

 

Oregon has tons of those examples in this year, and in the 2025 NFL class that is remaining behind for another year.

 

Terrance Ferguson_Vasco Dixon.jpg

Terrance Ferguson is going benefit himself and Oregon by Staying

 

What are the pundits now saying?

 

Why Early draft Declarations are Declining
Since college athletes have been permitted to profit off their name, image and likeness, early entries to the NFL Draft have been on a decline. 
 
Fifty-eight
underclassmen declared for this year’s draft, the lowest total since 2010 and down from 130 three years ago. Doesn't seem like a coincidence. Scott Dochterman investigated the trend in a story last week that left me with one overwhelming takeaway, summed up here with my emphasis added:
 
Said Brad Heinrichs, CEO of Iowa’s NIL collective: “The NFL practice squad pay is around $200,000 per year. … If a kid can get anywhere in the ballpark of that by staying in school, it can make a ton of sense for them if they are projected to be a late-round pick. The NIL money is guaranteed. In the NFL, you can get cut at any time.”
 
It’s a good point and probably the source of internal debate among athletes projected to be mid- to late-round picks in the draft. So, how should we feel about it? I'm all for seeing our favorite players stay in college through the end of their eligibility. Sure, the NFL may have to adjust, but giving players more power in their decision-making feels like a net positive to me.
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Does this begin to tilt your thoughts about NIL?

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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I think NIL has put a majority of teams on tilt.

 

I do like the fact that it keeps them in schools (plural) longer.

 

Plus, they will come out of their college careers with a better understanding of US geography having lived in so many college towns.

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Spot On takes Charles exemplified by the number of draft-eligible players staying in college for another season. Michigan opened the NIL wallet in 2023 for draft-eligible, experienced players and it paid off with a title.

 

I just reviewed Mel Kiper's final 2024 Mock Draft. Looking ahead to October 12, 2024, I'm not happy regarding Ohio State having only one player, WR Marvin Harrison, projected to be drafted in the first two rounds. Ohio State is this season's Michigan (sans the title I hope Oregon will win) with only one draft-eligible player with eligibility left, Harrison, leaving for the NFL.

 

tOSU's D was 2nd in the nation last season in points allowed and 3rd in the nation in yards allowed and returns almost all of the 2023 starters plus All-SEC and SEC Freshman-of-the-Year, CB Caleb Downs. 

 

WWW.ELEVENWARRIORS.COM

With nine returning starters including some of the brightest stars from a top-three unit in 2023, Ohio State's 2024 defense has generational potential.

 

 

 

 

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Appreciate your thoughts on NIL Charles.  For myself, a better college football product always centered around a fair way to crown a national champion like every other sport on earth - without subjectivity from voters or committees.  I'm not looking for a more professional product, because I enjoy the more amateur nature of college football with stronger elements of local and regional flare.

 

Like you, I'm happy to see more young men choosing to stick around longer to develop and mature although I wish NIL wasn't the primary factor.

 

The pendulum has swung dramatically in favor of highly talented college football players.  If the pendulum is done swinging, one has to wonder if the current state is sustainable.

 

I don't think the pendulum is done swinging.  There are still questions around tampering, player agents, there will be NIL buyouts, and using NIL in lieu of scholarships allowing teams to work around the 85 scholarship limit.  It is wild out there right now and it reminds me of children playing on a playground with no supervision.  At some point, someone is going to get hurt and the yard duty is going to come over and put an end to all fun.  The NCAA has been rendered toothless and it may not be long before legislation steps in to classify these athletes as employees.

 

Now you're dealing with minimum wages, insurance, workman's comp, unions to increase fairness up and down the roster, etc.  At this point, we can remove the word student from student-athlete.  Once the student tag is removed, why would there be any limit on how long an athlete can play college football?

 

I'm not sure how far the pendulum will continue swinging, but I don't believe we've reached a steady state.

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I didn't say the situation was ideal overall, but just that not everything would be as bad as so many here projected.  We do not know yet all the negative directions this will go, but we also do not know all the positive directions things will go either.

 

Like NIL.

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Mr. FishDuck

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Putting a stamp on what those of us paying attention already know.

 

SPORTS.YAHOO.COM

Amateurism is dead. Even the self-important Heisman Trust knows it after Reggie Bush's reinstatement. Now it's the NCAA's turn to take a symbolic step.

 

To control transfers, roster tampering, and recruiting being reduced to the program offering the best NIL deal, management will have to bargain with college "pro" athletes. But what union will negotiate with TBD 'employer' management? 

 

Lots of issues unresolved regarding NIL, etc. 

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