My Rose Bowl Analysis, and a Superb Outside Perspective...

[Charles Fischer]

My Duck-Buddies,

 

My impressions have been asked for of the game, and I will keep it brief because I believe most of this has been covered quite well by this community already.  We lost for three primary reasons, IMHO.

 

1) We got the full attention and complete focus of the Ohio State coaching staff, and their team littered with 5-Stars. They came into Autzen full-of-themselves, knowing they would put "little Oregon" in their place.  This time on New Years we got their full effort, especially on the coaching side.

 

They out-schemed our defense with their passing game, plain-and-simple.  They were awesome and nearly impossible to stop.  Thus while I hate it, I salute it. That is what good coaching is about.

 

2) The hosing of the schedule and seeding cannot be overlooked. If Oregon had a warm-up game against a lower seed, then being ready for the Buckeyes would have come easier, not to mention how we should only been playing them only in the final game. Penn State's path is the one we should have had...

 

3) The player I've been talking about ALL SEASON, how our offense will take off by fully utilizing him was not able to play at all.  Evan Stewart, the former 5-Star runs in the 4.30s and sending him long and stretching the defense was what was THE key to winning the first game. Without him playing, Ohio State was able to compress their coverage into the mid and short zones, and thus our receivers had difficulty getting open.

 

It impacted our pass protection; during the season we saw how Gabriel got rid of the ball a fraction before getting hit a TON of times.  But in the Rose Bowl, WRs were not getting open, thus he had to hold the ball longer and the highly regarded DTs of Ohio State were on a mission after the first game.  Get Stewart downfield, and everything opens up.

 

Ohio State scored 41; could we have scored 42?  Of course, as we left 11 points on the field the first time and could/should have scored 43 at Autzen. (Two passed-up Field Goals, and an easy FG missed along with two missed PATs)  With Stewart, staying up with the Buckeyes would have been possible, and with a game that was closer--the running game would have gone better.  As it was, they knew we had to pass, thus the whole game was changed without Stewart, IMHO.

 

The bottom line? Ohio State was a ton better on that day.  Not at Autzen, and perhaps a game against them in the Championship with a sharp team with Stewart may have been different.  It would suck to have an Ohio State-Penn State Final....you know, the "Oregon Beat Both Teams at Least Once" game.

 

Below is an article I highly suggest for dedicated Ducks as we are...

 

 

 

Ari Wasserman

 

PASADENA, Calif. — In the wake of Oregon’s 41-21 blowout loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Dan Lanning was asked a question about what he learned from the experience. 

 

It’s a reporter’s instinct to get immediate answers to serve the audience, and to find an explanation that contextualizes everything. People want to make sense of it all. How did that happen? Did the layoff make Oregon rusty? Did the Ducks get jobbed by a tournament with a seeding problem? What could Lanning have done better? What can he change in the offseason to make the Ducks’ goal of winning a national title more realistic than it was on that field an hour earlier? 

Lanning, grinning, knew what happened on that field. It wasn’t coaching malpractice, being rusty or some special game plan Ohio State cooked up. It wasn’t anything all that deep. So Lanning offered the most diplomatic explanation he could without coming across as bitter or throwing his very talented and special team under the bus. 

“It’s tough when you play a team that doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses,” Lanning said in response to the question. “They’ve got strengths.”

Here’s the simple translation: Ohio State had too many good players all over the field. It had more good players than Oregon had across the board.

If you’re an Oregon fan feeling down right now, that’s certainly reasonable. The Ducks are loaded, they went through the regular season having not lost a game — beating Ohio State along the way — and captured the Big Ten title. They were the favorite entering the College Football Playoff to win it all. The Ducks got blown out in their first game and failed to reach the CFP semifinals. Those emotions are raw. They are real. 

 

But here’s the good news: Oregon is ahead of schedule. Lanning is doing all the right things. And in a few years, the Ducks will be the class of the sport if talent trends — both with how Oregon acquires players and how the sport’s talent is flattening out — continue. Oregon, for sure, is going to be playing in high-leverage games like the Rose Bowl for the years to come. Take solace in that.

Why? Because this Ohio State team may be the last of a dying breed. This Ohio State team, playing at peak levels like it is right now, is akin to 2019 LSU, 2020 Alabama or either of the subsequent Georgia national champions.

We’ve been saying it all year, but Ohio State returned a veteran team with players who should be in the NFL right now. Sure, Ohio State spent a lot of money in NIL — just like Oregon — but the Buckeyes also returned players like Jack Sawyer, J.T. Tuimoloau (DTs) and Denzel Burke, all of whom could have been on NFL rosters right now.

 

These are pre-NIL era recruits combined with a portal luxuries like quarterback Will Howard, safety Caleb Downs and running back Quinshon Judkins. Also add into the equation that Jeremiah Smith may be the best freshman receiver in the history of college football, and it’s a problem.

We lost sight of who Ohio State was because the Buckeyes were playing poorly, which is part of the reason Ryan Day has come under fire. As we analyzed the Rose Bowl — using Oregon’s regular-season win over the Buckeyes as a reference — we forgot that pure talent, when playing optimally, is nearly impossible to beat. Ohio State didn’t start playing optimally until the postseason.

So maybe it’s bad luck Oregon, as the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP, had to play the Buckeyes right out of the gate. Maybe Oregon would have won the national title had it avoided Ohio State and the Buckeyes would have gotten beaten by someone else on a bad day. But on good days, Ohio State isn’t losing to anyone this season. What Ohio State has isn’t typical. Not even Georgia or Alabama had it this year. Maybe Ohio State won’t ever have it again. But it still does right now.

Which brings us back to Lanning and Oregon. This is year No. 3 for Lanning, and though he’s done a remarkable job with these Ducks, it’s not rational to expect they’d have completely erased the talent gap this Ohio State team still possess.

 

Oregon has been a menace in the portal and in recruiting. The Ducks have brought in players like Dillon Gabriel, Evan Stewart, Tez Johnson and so many others. Oregon is building a juggernaut. It is becoming the closest thing imaginable to a modern-day super team.

In the 13 classes between 2010-22, Oregon’s average finish in the team recruiting rankings was No. 17 overall. In the 2024 cycle, Lanning signed the No. 3 overall class, the first top-three class for Oregon in the modern history of recruiting. The portal is still going to be working. Things are great.

Lanning is still a young coach. It took Jim Harbaugh more than 10 years as a head coach to win his first national title. It took Nick Saban a decade. Kirby Smart needed six seasons. Dabo Swinney took eight. Ryan Day still hasn’t won one after five years at Ohio State. We want instant gratification, but winning a national title is so damn hard, and Saban’s unparalleled success has blinded many of us to that.

This sport is about chances. Keep building and knocking on that door and eventually it will break through. Lanning is the guy. He’s the best young coach in college football and there’s nobody I’d rather hire from the young coaching ranks to lead my powerhouse.

It’s painful right now, Oregon fans. I know it hurts.

But your day is coming. Just watch.
 

[HDuck]

Don't want to diminish Ohio State's offense on January 1 by this comment, but I would just add as a reminder the Ohio State defense is No. 1 in yards allowed.

 

The game in October was apparently a one-off in terms of their season long defensive performance.   Thus, it makes me wonder what the Oregon staff was looking at in the film room between the game in Indianapolis and Pasadena.   Were they re-running the October game on a loop and expecting to see the same Ohio State defense on January 1?

 

I understand that losing James early, and not having Stewart, can affect play calls.   But, it just seemed the preparation for what-if scenarios was wholly inadequate.

[30Duck]

On 1/6/2025 at 2:31 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Here’s the simple translation: Ohio State had too many good players all over the field. It had more good players than Oregon had across the board.

That nails it doesn't it. 

[jrw]

Don’t know if there’s much more left to say after that article. To the future!

[mikethehiker]

Great analysis and article. It will be frustrating if Ohio St. doesn’t boat race the next two teams like they did us but I have a feeling they had extra motivation for OBD. 
 

I don’t want to get my hopes up again like I did this year, but I’m sure I will. It was a great season and every team minus one would have happily traded their season for ours.

 

I’m ready for growing pains next year if it means we get to build a defense like 2024 Ohio St., 2023 Michigan, 2021-2022 Georgia, or prior Clemson and Alabama teams. That seems to be the common thread even in the NIL era. We can’t keep patching holes in an undeveloped roster. 

[Jon Joseph]

Thank you, Charles and Ari Wasserman. 

 

This helps ease the pain as does having the No. 1 ranked 2026 recruiting class and what appears to be another terrific job of portal picking.

 

GO DUCKS!