ACC Settlement. Will it Hurry or Delay a College Football Super Conference?

[Jon Joseph]

 

Make no mistake, the Clemson Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles won their recent settlement (Settlement) with the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC.) 

 

The Exit Fee for leaving the ACC, which was over $500 million, has been reduced to $165 million and will decrease by $18 million per annum to a floor of $75 million in 2030-31, six seasons before the ACC's media agreement with ESPN expires in 2036. (2030-31 will be the first season of a new B1G conference media agreement, the first Power 4 agreement to expire. Coincidence?)

 

The Settlement should keep the ACC together through 2030. 

 

To appease Clemson and FSU, the ACC had previously agreed to a 'Success Initiative', an 'Eat What You Kill'  distribution of postseason Football Playoff and NCAA Basketball Tournament revenues.

 

Clemson's first round 2024-25 football playoff loss to Texas brought in $4 million for the Tigers and nothing for the ACC. (Despite its football scheduling agreement with the ACC, Notre Dame shares no football playoff revenue with the conference.)

 

The Settlement goes one step further with the implementation of the ACC 'Brand Initiative.'

 

Under the Brand Initiative, media revenues for each member school will be tracked for the next five seasons and every five seasons thereafter, with member schools receiving 60% of media revenue from the viewership of a team's games viewed by the public. 

 

Based on past 'Eyes-On-The-Prize' viewer numbers, under the Brand Initiative, Clemson and FSU are expected to receive $15 Million a season, $75 Million over five years. Miami and UNC with Bill Belichick at the football helm, are also expected to benefit from their brand names, as will Duke basketball. 

 

Note that $75 Million is what it will cost To Get Out of This Place in 2030. Hmmmm. 

 

Most of 'The Experts' expect the B1G and the SEC to adopt the Success Initiative and the Brand Initiative when their respective media deals are renegotiated, if not sooner. The B1G and the SEC do not need their media partners' permission to alter in-conference revenue distribution.

 

I do not see the B1G amending the equal revenue split before 2030-31, but the SEC media deal does not conclude until 2033-34, and I doubt that the SEC's biggest brands will want to wait three years to follow the ACC and the B1G.

 

The bigger brand programs, including Oregon in the B1G, will get a B1G-ger slice of the pie. Northwestern's share will be reduced; however, Northwestern will still have a home in a conference where a reduced share will mean more money than moving elsewhere.

 

If the bigger brand programs can remain where they are and receive a more equitable share of the proceeds, is there any need for the biggest football brand B1G and the SEC teams to 'merge' and leave the lesser brands behind? 

 

The answer to the above question will of course, be driven by the marketplace. How much more revenue could the big brand B1G and SEC teams make if they left their weaker football brothers behind, added Notre Dame, and perhaps, a Clemson, FSU, ASU, and CU, and bargained the sale of game inventory collectively as a Super Conference?  And/or, directly streamed the game inventory? 

 

Another issue for a conference's as-is continuance is on the horizon. In anticipation of the House Settlement being approved early next month, the American Athletic Conference (AAC) has already informed its members that all members will have to pay their athletes at least $10 million dollars every season. Can't comply, say so long to the AAC. 

 

The annual ceiling on direct payment to athletes is $20.5 million a season. I will be surprised if the B1G and the SEC do not insist on this being the floor for all of their respective conference members. 

 

In conclusion, the Settlement will hold the ACC together through 2030, but thereafter? There are multi-millions of compelling financial reasons why the largest football brands will continue to consolidate beginning in the 2030s.

 

[Note - Antitrust issues will come into play without a 'Players Union' for 'Management' to bargain with and without the same Congressional litigation shelter provided to the NFL and other professional leagues.]

 

No matter the future course, OBD will not be left behind.

 

[30Duck]

On 3/16/2025 at 12:42 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 Despite its football scheduling agreement with the ACC, Notre Dame shares no football playoff revenue with the conference.

Every time I see this, or the special consideration in the CFP, or reminded they have their own network agreement, the parallel between Nore Dame and Jerry's Cowboys is even more clear. A lot of bark and little bite. 

[GatOrlando]

People ask why there are two conferences that are miles ahead of everybody else and it's stuff like this. The Big 12 catered to and eventually was betrayed by Texas and their Longhorn Network.

 

The PAC 12 was run by two guys who thought having lavish offices and a Network that nobody could actually watch but cost millions to set up and run was the way to go. Still USC and Oregon gave them chance after chance to secure a deal, any deal. But the leadership kept pushing it down the road until the dead end came up and the Road Runner was done playing games.

 

The ACC gave Notre Dame a lifeline in 2020 and got used without any assurances. They even let them play in their conference title game. The league also has some shady rules that are hidden in the back offices in Charlotte and there is a claim that Jim Phillips shipped a television deal to a network run by a son in law or some other family member. Florida State and Clemson claim the league extended the deal with ESPN without telling them and then the lawsuits began. Now FSU and Clemson are being rewarded for suing the league. A league they will likely bolt from in 2030 when the next B1G television deal comes up. North Carolina is the lynchpin of the league and now they are speaking out due to this recent ACC appeasement to the two cry babies.

 

You wouldn't see this in the B1G or SEC. Just go back to when it was announced Texas and Oklahoma were joining. Every school approved it despite reports of Texas A&M being opposed for obvious reasons. The Aggies were told to fall in line because Texas added value and they did just that.

 

There were rumors that USC didn't want the B1G to add Oregon, but it didn't matter. Oregon added value and USC was forced to accept that. Their only comfort was the fact Oregon wasn't getting full shares for the first few years, but you can bet that deep down they were still miffed. Too bad. That's what leadership is.

[OregonDucks]

On 3/16/2025 at 5:51 PM, GatOrlando said:

People ask why there are two conferences that are miles ahead of everybody else and it's stuff like this. The Big 12 catered to and eventually was betrayed by Texas and their Longhorn Network.

 

The PAC 12 was run by two guys who thought having lavish offices and a Network that nobody could actually watch but cost millions to set up and run was the way to go. Still USC and Oregon gave them chance after chance to secure a deal, any deal. But the leadership kept pushing it down the road until the dead end came up and the Road Runner was done playing games.

 

The ACC gave Notre Dame a lifeline in 2020 and got used without any assurances. They even let them play in their conference title game. The league also has some shady rules that are hidden in the back offices in Charlotte and there is a claim that Jim Phillips shipped a television deal to a network run by a son in law or some other family member. Florida State and Clemson claim the league extended the deal with ESPN without telling them and then the lawsuits began. Now FSU and Clemson are being rewarded for suing the league. A league they will likely bolt from in 2030 when the next B1G television deal comes up. North Carolina is the lynchpin of the league and now they are speaking out due to this recent ACC appeasement to the two cry babies.

 

You wouldn't see this in the B1G or SEC. Just go back to when it was announced Texas and Oklahoma were joining. Every school approved it despite reports of Texas A&M being opposed for obvious reasons. The Aggies were told to fall in line because Texas added value and they did just that.

 

There were rumors that USC didn't want the B1G to add Oregon, but it didn't matter. Oregon added value and USC was forced to accept that. Their only comfort was the fact Oregon wasn't getting full shares for the first few years, but you can bet that deep down they were still miffed. Too bad. That's what leadership is.

Great post. 
 

It’ll be interesting to see how the member schools and the SEC/B1G conferences react to potential uneven revenue distributions, once the TV money plateaus and the top revenue generating teams start pushing for unequal revenue shares (e.g., Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan).

 

USC (PAC-12) and Texas (Big XII) both pushed for bigger slices of their conference’s revenue pies before leaving their respective conferences. Those schools are running out of places to go but you can be sure it’s only a matter of time before they start asking again. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC/B1G cooled on FSU and Clemson, after all the shenanigans they pulled. I hope the B1G pursues ND and UNC instead.    

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/17/2025 at 2:29 PM, OregonDucks said:

I hope the B1G pursues ND

The word I hear from passionate Irish fans is...."no way."  They make more money being independent than anyone else, and they do not want to be part of any conference that may change policies that would conflict with their particular religious affiliation.

 

They look on it as more to lose than gain, but...

 

 

[woundedknees]

Hope Oregon isn't the last team to get half shares for joining the B1G...

[GatOrlando]

On 3/17/2025 at 2:29 PM, OregonDucks said:

Great post. 
 

It’ll be interesting to see how the member schools and the SEC/B1G conferences react to potential uneven revenue distributions, once the TV money plateaus and the top revenue generating teams start pushing for unequal revenue shares (e.g., Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan).

 

USC (PAC-12) and Texas (Big XII) both pushed for bigger slices of their conference’s revenue pies before leaving their respective conferences. Those schools are running out of places to go but you can be sure it’s only a matter of time before they start asking again. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC/B1G cooled on FSU and Clemson, after all the shenanigans they pulled. I hope the B1G pursues ND and UNC instead.    

One reason I think the B1G will go for FSU is due to the academic coalition that generates a much larger revenue stream than any sporting grouping ever could. Florida State is a huge land grant University that will be AAU in the next year or so. The academic grant money that the B1G generates is why no contraction will take place. It's also why the B1G is the most powerful conference on all sides. The amount of big donors and alumni is far larger than just about every SEC member.

 

Really the only SEC schools that could be invited to the B1G are Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, Florida and Vanderbilt. I try and tell people that Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota and Indiana are far too valuable to ever allow their football programs be the thing that gets them kicked out. Once you join the league, you become part of something far larger and more important than sports.

 

As far as Clemson and FSU, I can't see Clemson qualifying for B1G membership. But they will add value to the SEC. Florida State has turned down the SEC several times during the Bowden era. The only way I can see the SEC taking them in , is if the SEC doesn't want the B1G to get a footprint in Florida. But eventually the B1G will get North Carolina, Georgia Tech and either FSU or Miami. 

 

As a Florida fan I don't want FSU to get an SEC invite and neither does the University. But like Texas A&M and USC, they will be forced to accept it. No one program is bigger than the SEC or B1G.