As our Oregon football program prepares for its fifth season under head coach Dan Lanning, projected win totals for all Power Four conferences are officially out. Oregon stands today at 10.5 wins as their betting line, joining Indiana as the favorites to go to the conference championship for their second time since joining the B1G. Ohio State sits at a game ...

Oregon Football: Projected Win Total in 2026

11-1, perhaps. But playing 8 straight games against Big Ten opposition and a double west to east yo-yo in November gives me pause.

On November 7th in Columbus, I expect a 9 AM body clock time kick off. And Ohio State has many talented players on the O-side of the ball back.

The weather in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 21st could be a great equalizer.

OBD returns from Michigan State to play a UW team coming off a game in Seattle vs. Indiana. UW could be coming to Autzen with a victory over Cig and the Hoosiers and a chance for a spot in the playoff field. Indiana will not be an easy out, but the game is being played in the Pacific time zone, not the Eastern time zone. A plus for UW.

Will the SC D step up under Gary Patterson? The offense will score points behind the now-experienced QB Maiava. I think the Week 4 game at SC is a defining moment for SC football under Lincoln Riley, and the Trojans and their fans will be geeked for this game.

If you asked Trojan fans if they'd rather beat Oregon in Week 4 or Ohio State in Week 9, I think the majority would take a win over the Ducks, not the Bucks.

SC has the easier early schedule. Three G6 opponents at home without one of the G6 teams being as dangerous as Boise State.

SC does have to travel to Rutgers the week before the Oregon game, but I'll take that game over having to play at Oklahoma State in Week 2 with the Cowboys bringing a new HC, a QB, Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation in passing last season, and an improved roster including the Mestermaker's top receivers and running backs, and three players who started in front of Mestemaker on the North Texas O-line.

After last season's pounding, OK State fans will be out to pluck Duck feathers, in a stadium that is loud with the crowd right on top of the visiting team's bench.

Oregon also gets another short end of the scheduling stick, having to play Nebraska in Eugene before traveling to play Illinois in Week 9, with the Illini off the week before Oregon's visit.

The Oregon O-line had lapses last season, but it was a Joe Moore Award finalist. Will three new starters on the O-line come through? Will the new OC and DC pan out? Will Dante be better prepared to play under physical and mental pressure?

In this NIL era, the roster depth, even on Blue Chip Roster teams like OBD, will be tested by the worst part of the game, injuries.

Of course, I hope you are correct in your 11-1 or better call, but there are too many questions IMO to bet the Over 10.5.

Many of the 2026-27 playoff contenders have easier schedules than Oregon, and the schedule is harder next season. Gulp.

Thanks for the article, and Go Ducks!

I agree with both of you; as Jon noted...the schedule is not easy, and any number of teams could beat us if we don't play our best. Yet I think eleven wins is attainable...

Oregon starts with a fairly easy OCC schedule then goes to USC. I'm expecting a win down there. So 4-0 to start.

Then a bye and after the bye 2 semi easy'ish games at home. Now 6-0.

After that they hit a stretch of 8 games but only 3 on the road. I see at least one loss in the stretch so I'm going with 11-1.

At this point I don't have a good idea of who they might lose too.

The natural pick is either tOSU or MI. Although the away game against MSU could be the "Trap" game after tough games with tOSU and MI.

I don't think they lose to the Huskies in Autzen unless they're worn down and or have some major injuries.

Also agreeing with both Alex and Jon - on paper it certainly looks like we can go 11-1 or 12-0. But we all know that real-life football is different from the paper. It can come down to many factors. I hope Lanning figures out how to adjust in-game and the players are as physical and tough as they can be. Go Ducks!

I’d say 11-1, but there will be a twist such as beating tOSU but losing to Michigan or Illinois.

I get that it might be easy to overlook MSU based upon being between Michigan and UW and on the road…but MSU is a complete dumpster fire with yet another new coach. They should be limping heavily by 11/21. That’s the type of game where if OBD plays sub-par we should still easily win by double digits imo. DL has yet to lose to a B1G team without a pulse and I have a hard time envisioning MSU being the one to get him this particular year.

Biggest traps imo are Boise (don’t think we’d actually lose, but first game at full strength for them), Illinois, Michigan. Those are solid teams that can bite you if you don’t bring it.