So They're Saying We Have a Chance

[Steven A]

According to CBS, we still have a shot at the playoffs.

 

"The Ducks will definitely finish behind Georgia, the Big 12 champion and probably Notre Dame. So, they would not only need to beat No. 17 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game but also require losses by Cincinnati and Michigan plus an Alabama blowout loss. All this while hoping that Iowa does not jump them as well, although I do not expect that would happen."

 

( College Football Playoff, bowl predictions: Paths for the nine remaining contenders with one spot clinched - CBSSports.com ) 

 

Sorry, not buying it.

 

[Duck 1972]

Great post. "They do love us" for any of you who watch the Oscars.

[Haywarduck]

The ball is oblong, but the games are won by athletes and execution, and I don't see enough of either right now. I am still hopeful, but I wouldn't bet on it from the body of evidence I have seen.

[UtahDuck]

I've been trying to evaluate where in the world they get their idea from... The current top 10 with their upcoming games are as follows

 

1. Georgia vs #3 Bama

2. Michigan vs #13 Iowa

3. Bama VS #1 Georgia

4. Cincinnati VS #21 Houston

5. OK State VS #9 Baylor

6. Notre Dame ... BYE

7. OSU ... BYE

8. OLE MISS ...  BYE

9. Baylor VS #5 OK State

10. Oregon VS #17 UTAH

 

To start oregon would need to win, I think an oregon win would jump them above both OSU, and Ole Miss. Add in a baylor loss and Oregon is sitting at 7th fairly comfortably. Jumping those last three spots to get to 4th seems nigh impossible. 

 

Possible but unlikely is that oregon destroys Utah, and the committee evaluates the oregon win over a previous loss high enough to jump ND.

Next Bama would need to lose in an embarrassing maner. I'm thinking 35+ points with a lifeless offense and not scoring more than 10 points.

Cincinnati would need to loss handedly(14+ points).

 

To me this is the easiest path. to much chaos(michigan losing as well) I think creates a situation in which Iowa could jump us and you then have a lot bigger mess at the top anyway. Essentially you need three clear cut teams(in my designation that is UGA, UM, and OkSU. and oregon would have to luck into the spot with an over evaluation from the committee, Bama being embarrassed to the point that no one wants to see a rematch, and well cinci losing their conference by enough that the conference says you didn't win your g5 schedule. The likelihood of all of these happening along with oregon beating utah in a rounded fashion seems less likely than pigs flying.