ICamel No. 1 Share Posted June 7, 2022 We all know that 2022 was a disappointment over expectations. But why was it not up to what we wanted it to be? General consensus was that our pitching regressed as compared to the previous season. My analysis of the 2022 Stats compared to 2021 bears this out. Yes, I am well aware of the old saying "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" popularized by Mark Twain, and originally attributed to Arthur James Balfour, 1st Earl of Balfour, as quoted in the Manchester Guardian, 29th June 1892. But I digress. The source of the statistics is from GoDucks; https://goducks.com/documents/2021/6/7/Overall.pdf https://goducks.com/documents/2022/6/5/Overall_Stats.pdf We can see clearly that the offense and fielding were improved in 2022 vs. 2021. A "+" in front of the stat indicates a better year in 2022 over 2021, whereas a "-" reflects a regression. Season Won/Loss 2021; Record: 39-16 (Home: 23-9 Away: 16-7 Pac-12: 20-10) - Season Won/Loss 2022; Record: 36-25 (Home: 25-10 Away: 10-12 Neutral: 1-3 Pac-12: 18-12) + Appearance at Bat 2021; 1890 Appearance at Bat 2022; 2160 + Batting 2021; .289 Batting 2022; .310 + Hits 2021; 546 Hits 2022; 670 + Singles 2021; 358 Singles 2022; 461 + Doubles 2021; 118 Doubles 2022; 122 - Triples 2021; 14 Triples 2022; 12 + Homeruns 2021; 56 Homeruns 2022; 75 + Total Bases 2021; 860 Total Bases 2022; 1041 + Runs Batted In 2021; 334 Runs Batted In 2022; 416 - Left on Base 2021; 453 Left on Base 2022; 462 + Times Struck Out 2021; 391 Times Struck Out 2022; 388 - Base on Balls 2021; 255 Base on Balls 2022; 243 + Stolen Base/Attempt 2021; 52/67(78%) Stolen Base/Attempt 2022; 66/84(79%) - Fielding 2021; .981 Fielding 2022; .979 - Errors 2021; 40 Errors 2022; 47 + Double Plays Turned 2021; 51 Double Plays Turned 2022; 54 Only five statistics in 2022 were not an improvement, and I would contend that four of those categories are understandable. Two less Triples are pretty insignificant. Getting 116 more hits will almost assuredly leave nine more runners on base. Being more aggressive at the plate will result in fewer walks, and since there were fewer strikeouts, it's a statistic we can live with. The fielding percentage difference is not significant and one could argue if the numbers were rounded off would be the same. The increase in fielding errors is disappointing. The pitching stats really bear out what most of us who have followed the baseball team intuitively knew. Pitching is what held this team from going further in the season. Only one statistical pitching stat was an improvement in 2022, the fewer number of triples allowed. Possibly due to the reconfiguration of PK Park? Battery(Pitcher/Catcher) - Earned Run Average 2021; 3.71 Earned Run Average 2022; 4.73 - Hits Allowed 2021; 465 Hits Allowed 2022; 534 - Runs Allowed 2021; 231 Runs Allowed 2022; 320 - Earned Runs Allowed 2021; 204 Earned Runs Allowed 2022; 283 - Base on Balls 2021; 182 Base on Balls 2022; 274 - Strike Outs 2021; 513 Strike Outs 2022; 467 - Singles 2021; 326 Singles 2022; 372 - Doubles 2021; 81 Doubles 2022; 90 + Triples 2021; 15 Triples 2022; 9 - Homeruns 2021; 43 Homeruns 2022; 63 E Wild Pitches 2021; 40 Wild Pitches 2022; 40 - Hit Batter 2021; 47 Hit Batter 2022; 69 - Passed Balls 2021; 6 Passed Balls 2022; 8 - Pickoffs 2021; 8 Pickoffs 2022; 7 The combination of Hits Allowed(+69), Base on Balls(+92), and Hit Batters(+22) put an additional 192 runners on base. An earned run average of +1.02 is unacceptable. Part of the pitching problems can be traced to injury early in the year, but for a program like Oregon Baseball it should not be an excuse. The old adage "Good pitching beats good hitting" holds true here. For Our Beloved Ducks baseball program to take it to the next level, the pitching and associated coaching staff will also need to make a big progression in development next year. Please share your thoughts, observations and any questions! 1 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 2 Share Posted June 7, 2022 So many thoughts....the first is the outstanding time and work you put into this. This really tells the story, better than anything else out there and I am grateful ICamel. I knew the pitching hurt, but this tells us that it is not just the starters; the relievers let us down at crucial times as well. Rather than look at raw numbers, I do look at the percentage that we descended in pitching in the different categories, and those percentages of decline are pretty bad. The other element is what we are comparing it to; in the end the difference between last year and this year is winning two more games in the NCAA Regional, yet the reason we did not is within the stats you cite. When I compare things in football analysis--I like to look at "what did the best Oregon teams do," or "what did the best teams that made the championships in our sport," or "what is our goal?" That might be the most important comparison; how far are we off our goals in pitching? What is needed in hitting, because I cannot imagine duplicating this record year in 2023 with the departure of so many great hitters? I imagine the coaches know those numbers and have the goals set? Thus far the difference between Waz and Horton is....George had great pitching, and Waz has better hitting. The fundamental coaching is there, but the biggest component in Oregon improving will be recruiting great pitchers, IMHO. This was incredible, ICamel, and I thank you again and invite feedback from anyone. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 3 Share Posted June 7, 2022 I wonder how much the reconfigured field had to also influence the numbers for pitching especially since our offensive numbers went up as well? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICamel Author No. 4 Share Posted June 7, 2022 On 6/7/2022 at 10:31 AM, Duck 1972 said: I wonder how much the reconfigured field had to also influence the numbers for pitching especially since our offensive numbers went up as well? Excellent question! In 2021 opponents batted .248 while in 2022 they improved to .261, so not as pronounced as Oregon. For RBI's opponents had 210 in 2021, and 295 in 2022. The increase in number of home runs by both Oregon(+19) and opponents(+20), as well as total extra base hits for Oregon(+29) and opponents(+23) could be partly attributed to changes made to the reconfiguration of PK Park. Pitching in 2021 the ERA for opponents was 5.93 which ballooned to 7.10 in 2022, and would be expected given Oregon's hitting improvement. A better comparison would be stats just for games played at PK Park, but those are much more difficult to quantify. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 5 Share Posted June 7, 2022 I guess what I was thinking was....what are the pitching stats of an Omaha team? How much progression will it take? And....do you think the raw material in our current pitchers is there to improve enough, or do we need Oregon State-type pitchers? Love your thoughts--thanks. Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 6 Share Posted June 7, 2022 (edited) Does anyone know if we lost a lot of good pitchers from 21? I know we lost our #1 in 22 to injury. That never helps Edited June 7, 2022 by Duck 1972 Need to edit Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICamel Author No. 7 Share Posted June 7, 2022 On 6/7/2022 at 12:08 PM, ICamel said: A better comparison would be stats just for games played at PK Park, but those are much more difficult to quantify. It turns out that data isn't as difficult to dig out as I thought, but it might not be too meaningful given the divergent directions taken by hitting and pitching. I think the re-configured ball field did have a positive impact for Oregon Baseball. Bear in mind there were 31 games played at PK Park in 2021 with 35 played there in 2022. The following data only pertains to games played at PK Park; Hits = +93 in 2022 Runs = +120 in 2022 RBI's = +89 in 2022 Doubles = +63 in 2022 Triples = -5 in 2022 Homeruns = +17 in 2022 Batting Average = +.046 Hits Allowed = +45 Runs Allowed = +48 Earned Runs Allowed = +40 Doubles Allowed = +1 Triples Allowed = -2 Homeruns Allowed = +16 Earned Run Average = +0.81 On 6/7/2022 at 12:52 PM, Charles Fischer said: I guess what I was thinking was....what are the pitching stats of an Omaha team? How much progression will it take? And....do you think the raw material in our current pitchers is there to improve enough, or do we need Oregon State-type pitchers? Love your thoughts--thanks. We will need to finish this season to look at the pitching stats for the CWS teams. An ERA of sub 2.50 would be ideal. I don't think the team currently has the pitchers to show significant improvement over 2022. I saw too much "nibbling" at the plate, and not enough challenging of batters. TOO MANY DAMNED WALKS! It will probably take a few years of recruiting better pitchers to be able to have a "quality" staff. But watch out when that happens! Hitting needs to be more consistent. I saw too much of getting a lead and then coasting, and it cost us some wins. Pitching needs a rotation of 3 quality(Oregon State-type) pitchers. I think the bullpen pitchers are serviceable. Wouldn't we love to see consistent, sold out, raucous crowds at PK Park! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 8 Share Posted June 8, 2022 ICamel - Thanks for your terrific game write-ups and analysis this season. I enjoyed reading them and appreciate your time and effort. Hopefully our Diamond Ducks will have better results next year. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Axel No. 9 Share Posted June 8, 2022 ICamel, you deserve a FishDuck Pulitzer! Thank you for your fabulous work all season and for your in-depth postseason analysis. There is much to contemplate here! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
