Here's a Stat to Put 2022's Season in Perspective

[Duck Fan 76]

The season feels like a letdown.  Let's be honest losing to Washington and Oregon St in the same season is always going to make the season feel much worse than it is.

 

Looking at the season I'm cognizant of two realities of 2022.  The first point is that PAC12 play was ridiculously improved this year.  This point is a positive for Oregon considering that the season started with conversations all over the country about the PAC's survival.

 

The second point is the stat that puts this season in perspective for me.  I'm referring to the Oregon ducks points allowed per game as a true measure of both defense and special teams.  Oregon allowed 27.4 points per game which ranks 76th in CFB and 6th in the PAC. 

 

We have discussed "ad nauseam" how Oregon was employing the "bend but don't break" defense but Oregon ranked 6th in the PAC for points per game and that isn't B2DB that's just poor defense.  If I'm being honest with myself Oregon doesn't deserve the elite moniker this year and it's absolutely because of that stat.

 

As a contrast Oregon's offense ranked 8th in CFB for pts per game and that "IS" an elite stat.  Who are the top ten in pts per game?

 

Tennessee    47.3
Ohio State     44.5
USC                42.5
TCU                41.3
Washington   40.8
Alabama        40.8
Michigan       39.8
Oregon          39.7
UCLA             39.6
Utah               39.6

 

Looking at that list you see the elite teams across the country.  Georgia's offense for reference is ranked 12th and is the undeniable best team in the country because they are ranked #1 in points allowed per game with 11.3.  Let that number sink in for a second.

 

In support of point #1, the PAC had 5 of the top ten offenses in the country, and that means the PAC is exciting to watch on TV... and that is a good thing outside of LA.

 

I don't normally like the "what if" scenario but what would Oregon's season have looked like if Oregon had a defense as good as Utah?  Utah cracks the top 20 for defense at 19th with 20.1 points per game, that's a full touchdown margin ahead of Oregon.  

 

What does one extra touchdown buy Oregon for the season?  Oregon 34, Washington 30 and Oregon 34, Oregon St. 31 giving Oregon an 11-1 season and a spot in the PACs conference championship.  That would be a remarkable change in how everyone is feeling about Oregon right now.

 

So the question remains how does Oregon get to a top25 points allowed per game?  Defense is the most obvious area for improvement and we've highlighted Oregon's poor pass defense play all year.  Special teams play is also super important and here I'm specifically highlighting the punting team as part of the problem. 

 

The coaches have already recognized this and have called it out as an area for targeted improvement all year.  With elite punting does DL need to be as aggressive on 4th downs?  With a better 3rd down stop rate on obvious passing downs does DL need to be as aggressive on 4th downs?  DL called plays all year focused on his teams strengths and punting and pass defense weren't strengths.

 

Do I think Tosh Lupoi is the problem?  Not entirely and I think it's mostly been a problem with personnel and development.  I expect DL to attack this point heavily in both recruiting and player development.  Oregon's defense OFTEN looked confused on assignments when they needed to make on field adjustments.  That's a talent and development problem. 

 

DL said all year that the coaches need to change "how they teach" to improve the results.  I think he said that because he can't say our defense is full of physically talented players that don't understand how to play complicated defense against complicated offenses.

 

The good news is I think the coaches are smart enough to recognize all of this and focus on "building" a great offense with a really good defense and solid special teams.  The talent for a really good defense is achievable if we don't singularly emphasize the physical traits in the hopes of dominating the opposition purely with individual talent. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Great stuff. We're all mad, puzzled, concerned that the Ducks had two abysmal forth quarter melts downs that cost them an 11-1 season. I think it's best to take a glass half full approach and appreciate the fact a first year first time head coach was in position to win both games in the forth quarter and be 11-1 in year one.

 

Jonathan Smith got to play with house money year one and just get his feet wet guiding a horrible team and look where he is now. It should also be noted that if UW and OSU were both playing at the level they were last year, Lanning would be 11-1 right now. The Pac has vastly improved this year and has many of the top ten offenses/ QBs in the country. Mario would have been much closer to .500 this year if he stayed.

 

Even if they did finish 11-1 this year, they would not have been a real threat in the playoffs due to the weak D. The bitter way the season ended may be a long term blessing in disguise much like the UGA game. The honeymoon is over. Lanning has seen the Ducks weaknesses and will have to go to work and address them. He has also seen his own coaching flaws and will work on them as well. From everything I've seen so far, I'd say he'll have the problems fixed sooner than later. The glass is much more than half full.

[Duck Fan 76]

On 11/29/2022 at 10:46 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Even if they did finish 11-1 this year, they would not have been a real threat in the playoffs due to the weak D.

Agreed, the truth is if Bo hadn't got hurt against Washington, Oregon likely wins both games on pure offensive output.  While that's amazing it might have been a barrier to real improvement.  The result in the playoff wouldn't have been pretty when facing top defenses that also have top offenses.

 

I loved going to games this year but if we want to win a championship it's absolutely time to get SERIOUS about playing defense.

[1Ducker1]

There is nothing good about being behind the Fuskies at anytime.

[Mic]

On 11/29/2022 at 10:56 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

I loved going to games this year but if we want to win a championship it's absolutely time to get SERIOUS about playing defense.

But wasn't that why Lanning was hired in the 1st place?  It was odd that a person named H.C. based primarily on his defensive coaching credits winds up coaching a team known primarily as an Offensive powerhouse but with a weak defense.  I guess we just need to give him more time to build the defense.  Hopefully not at the expense of the offensive firepower O has now. 

[DUCati855]

On 11/29/2022 at 10:56 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

On 11/29/2022 at 10:46 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Even if they did finish 11-1 this year, they would not have been a real threat in the playoffs due to the weak D.

Agreed, the truth is if Bo hadn't got hurt against Washington, Oregon likely wins both games on pure offensive output.  While that's amazing it might have been a barrier to real improvement.  The result in the playoff wouldn't have been pretty when facing top defenses that also have top offenses.

 

I loved going to games this year but if we want to win a championship it's absolutely time to get SERIOUS about playing defense.

Have to agree with both of you. I have been saying this most of the year. We would have been COMPLETELY humiliated in the playoffs. The Rose Bowl would have been our best outcome. Granted I thought we would be playing Michigan.

 

Now I'm hoping for the Holiday Bowl... what a difference 7 points can make!

[Duck Fan 76]

On 11/29/2022 at 11:03 AM, Mic said:

I guess we just need to give him more time to build the defense.

Yes BUT! we need to hold DL accountable for program trajectory.  I believe DL has what it takes to develop a championship caliber team at Oregon but that belief needs continued justification to not be categorized as blind faith.  

 

He needs to show growth in the macro game management which we would observe as better situational play calling by his coordinators.

 

He needs to show growth in player development which we would observe as better situational adjustments by players after the play has been called but the offense shifts formations.

[Mic]

On 11/29/2022 at 12:45 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Yes BUT! we need to hold DL accountable for program trajectory.  I believe DL has what it takes to develop a championship caliber team at Oregon but that belief needs continued justification to not be categorized as blind faith.  

 

He needs to show growth in the macro game management which we would observe as better situational play calling by his coordinators.

 

He needs to show growth in player development which we would observe as better situational adjustments by players after the play has been called but the offense shifts formations.

I'm sure he will if given the time.  I'm also certain he wasn't anticipating losing his hand-picked O.C. so quickly - so right now he has a lot on his plate.  He's being tested in his new role as Head Honcho and he strikes me as the type of man who isn't afraid of a challenge.  Watching him grow will be as rewarding for us as it is disheartening to our opponents.   GO DUCKS.