ESPN's Bill Connelly's Initial SP+ Rankings Top 10 - Pac-12 Rankings - And a Few Others

[Jon Joseph]

On February 14, 2023, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his first edition of the 2023 SP+ rankings. SP+ is a predictive model that has nailed at least 3 out of the 4 participants since the inception of the Playoff. 

 

SP+ has not always been kind to Oregon but I think Oregon fans will be very happy with being ranked in the top 10 at #8. 

 

Below are the top 10 and Pac-12 rankings including the rankings for potential new members San Diego State (SDS) and SMU.

 

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State

3. Michigan

4. Alabama

5. Penn State

6.Tennessee

7.LSU

8. OREGON

9. Texas

10. USC

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

13. Utah

16. Washington

21. UCLA

31. Oregon State

53. Washington State

(55. SMU)

58. CAL

63. ASU

78. Arizona 

(80. SDS)

94. Colorado

102. Stanford

 

Oregon's Power 5 out-of-conference opponent Texas Tech is ranked #35.

 

By Conference

 

1. SEC

2. B1G

3, B12 (this includes Texas and Oklahoma)

4. Pac-12

5. ACC

 

This is one of the few preseason rankings I have seen that has Oregon ahead of USC. Also the only ranking I have seen to date that does not have an ACC team (Clemson or FSU) in the top 10.

 

Should these rankings play out, Oregon wins the Pac-12 and plays in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

1. Georgia would play 4. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Playoff semi-final.

 

2. Ohio State would play 3, Michigan in the Rose Bowl semi-final. One of these 2 would make the final 4 going 11-1 and without a conference championship.

 

GO DUCKS!

[Jon Joseph]

THIS ranking only gives Oregon 3 games versus the top 25 opponents. I continue to believe that based on the AP preseason poll SC, UW, Utah, OR ST and, Texas Tech will all be preseason ranked.

[JDuck]

2 B1G teams and 2 SEC in playoff sounds good every year (lately with Michigan's revival) but 12-1 and win Pac, likely in, or 13-0 and we will be in.  Pac will be a gauntlet though, mutts and utes on the road, TTU will not be cake

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/14/2023 at 4:41 PM, JDuck said:

2 B1G teams and 2 SEC in playoff sounds good every year (lately with Michigan's revival) but 12-1 and win Pac, likely in, or 13-0 and we will be in.  Pac will be a gauntlet though, mutts and utes on the road, TTU will not be cake

TT - blew out Ole Miss in its bowl game. 8-0 when Tyler Shough the presumed starting QB in 2023, starts and finishes a game.

 

TT #1 in the country last season in plays run per game. 89.2 play average. Home - 95.7 plays/ Away 82.7 plays

 

Ducks by comparison finished ranked #56. 71.3 play average. Home - 70.6 plays/Away - 71.9 plays - I find it interesting that the Ducks on average ran more plays on the road,

 

The Red Raiders and former Ducks QB Shough (wasted by Mario?) will put a lot of stress on the Ducks D.

 

Texas Tech - 64% of 2022 production returning. 75% on offense (31 nationally) 52% defense (58 nationally.)

 

Oregon - 65% 0f 2022 production returning. 65% on offense (62 nationally.) 65% on defense (58 nationally) 

 

(At 65/65/65 is Oregon the Social Security Team?)

 

1st game Ducks have the advantage playing Portland State at home while TT trips to Wyoming.

 

The stadium in Lubbock will be fired up and LOUD!

[Nevada Dawg]

I have no quarrel with the Ducks being  rated ahead of USC. BUT...  Watch out for the dreaded Huskies and even for the Beavs should the Clemson transfer QB hit his stride similar to the way Nix did last year.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/14/2023 at 5:21 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I have no quarrel with the Ducks being  rated ahead of USC. BUT...  Watch out for the dreaded Huskies and even for the Beavs should the Clemson transfer QB hit his stride similar to the way Nix did last year.

I do not disagree in the slightest. This is all algorithm-driven. Human polls will of course be different but at the top BC has usually been very accurate. 

[Charles Fischer]

If you can’t make it at Clemson? You’re going to make it at Oregon State instead?

 

Right.

[Nevada Dawg]

I understand the skepticism Charles but this kid is talented.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/15/2023 at 1:26 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

I understand the skepticism Charles but this kid is talented.

And is playing behind a better OL and perhaps in a better system. His 1st OC left to take the UVA job. His 2nd OC was fired. And he wasn't throwing to WRs the quality of guys he had to throw to when Lawrence was out and he lit up Notre Dame.

 

Clemson's quality of players had decreased. Without Lawrence, in his last season, I think Clemson loses 3 to 4 games.

 

Clemson's recruiting rankings have gone down even though kids who sign there get a rankings bump because it is Clemson.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

I just ran across this Cover 3 Podcast which had Bill Connelly as guest speaking on this very topic.

 

The short snippet which refers specifically to the Ducks is below (59:15).

If you want to listen to the whole podcast, just start from beginning.

 

 

 

[SoGaDawg]

Tennessee seems too high to me at #6.  But maybe I’m just nitpicking bc I can’t stand orange.  They do have some very good skill players on offense so if their O-line plays well and QB Joe Milton takes a big leap forward I could see their offense being once again very formidable.  And who knows, if Milton falters it’s possible that incoming freshman QB Nico Lamaleava gets a shot and does well.  It’s a stretch, but Nico will likely be very good before he is done in college and Josh Heupel is a good offensive coach.  Their defense is another story.  
 

As for the Ducks at #8, I think that’s fair.  
 

As far as the top goes, I guess it’s fair to have GA there considering talent and the past two seasons.  Honestly though, who knows.  I couldn’t really argue if Bama or tOSU were ranked #1 in this poll.  

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/22/2023 at 9:24 PM, SoGaDawg said:

Tennessee seems too high to me at #6.  But maybe I’m just nitpicking bc I can’t stand orange.  They do have some very good skill players on offense so if their O-line plays well and QB Joe Milton takes a big leap forward I could see their offense being once again very formidable.  And who knows, if Milton falters it’s possible that incoming freshman QB Nico Lamaleava gets a shot and does well.  It’s a stretch, but Nico will likely be very good before he is done in college and Josh Heupel is a good offensive coach.  Their defense is another story.  
 

As for the Ducks at #8, I think that’s fair.  
 

As far as the top goes, I guess it’s fair to have GA there considering talent and the past two seasons.  Honestly though, who knows.  I couldn’t really argue if Bama or tOSU were ranked #1 in this poll.  

Thank you for the comment. Alabama? returning production ranks 125 out of 133 FBS programs. A new QB, new OC, and new DC. No one should sell Saint Nick short but with Daniels returning to LSU I think LSU will repeat as the SEC W champ even though the Tigers have to play at Bama. I expect LSU to get a big rankings bump after defeating an overrated FSU team in its opener.

 

Georgia? Lost its OC but has a terrific returning roster and an easier schedule than Bama. I know the game is at TN but I do not see TN having a QB who can defeat the Dawgs. 

 

Ohio State. Does play at Notre Dame OOC but gets Penn State in Columbus and as for the rest of the B1G, sans Michigan, the Pac-12 is better top to bottom. Will the new Ohio State QB be able to take advantage of a deep receiving corps as did Stroud?

 

Like the SP+ I expect Georgia will be preseason ranked #1 in every poll.

[SoGaDawg]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:35 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Thank you for the comment. Alabama? returning production ranks 125 out of 133 FBS programs. A new QB, new OC, and new DC. No one should sell Saint Nick short but with Daniels returning to LSU I think LSU will repeat as the SEC W champ even though the Tigers have to play at Bama. I expect LSU to get a big rankings bump after defeating an overrated FSU team in its opener.

 

Georgia? Lost its OC but has a terrific returning roster and an easier schedule than Bama. I know the game is at TN but I do not see TN having a QB who can defeat the Dawgs. 

 

Ohio State. Does play at Notre Dame OOC but gets Penn State in Columbus and as for the rest of the B1G, sans Michigan, the Pac-12 is better top to bottom. Will the new Ohio State QB be able to take advantage of a deep receiving corps as did Stroud?

 

Like the SP+ I expect Georgia will be preseason ranked #1 in every poll.

Yes, after your pointing it out I agree, it is fair to assume that Bama could potentially struggle in the tough SEC West considering all of the major changes.  I also agree about LSU, Daniels is a very good QB.  And to be honest, I was very impressed with Garret Nussmeier their backup QB.  He absolutely torched a very good GA defense in the SEC Championship game.  
 

I’m excited to see how my Dawgs will fair with our new QB.  My money is on Beck winning the job but all three seem highly talented so it might get interesting.  
 

I’m also very excited about the Ducks.  Like LSU they have a great QB returning.  Bo Nix coming back is huge!!!  Looks to me like the Pac-12 will be littered with very good QBs this coming season.  I agree that the Pac-12 will likely be better top to bottom than the B1G.  

[Duck Fan 76]

On 2/23/2023 at 3:53 PM, SoGaDawg said:

Bo Nix coming back is huge!!!

Agreed!  The SEC should be sending two teams to the playoff in 2023 and I think it's very likely Georgia and LSU.  Maybe Alabama figures it out in the West but the magic 8-ball says "outlook not so good".  Incidentally if Georgia 3-peats... man... just... man...

 

As for the Big-10 their champion will get in, that's not exactly prognostication and Ohio St is tough to beat.

 

The remaining seat is likely going to be occupied by whoever has a hot hand in the ACC, Big-12 or PAC.  By hot hand I mean has the buzz mid season and doesn't drop ANY late games.  If the not-as-super conference champs drop 2 games then the Big-10 runner up could squeeeeak in.

 

I think Oregon and USC's fate in the PAC is going to come down to which team makes a bigger jump in defensive play (specifically pass rush).  If neither do then it's 2022 again and neither should go to the playoff.  The PAC could see Oregon, USC, Utah, Washington and God help us even Oregon St. take the PAC's crown.  Of those only Oregon, USC or Utah could likely drop a game and still get in to the playoff.  Washington and Oregon St. need a perfect run to get there and I just don't think that's likely.

 

What I really want to see from Oregon in 2023 is keep the offense rolling.  Seriously, keeping the offense fun to watch is what Oregon needs to keep the program growing.  On the defensive side I really want to see effective 4-man pass rush.  Simulated pressure is great at throwing off hat counts but only if the pass rush is a legitimate threat.  With the additions to the defense we have the potential to take a good sized step forward for 2023 but we're going to need to see some serious motor in the defense to win in Seattle, Salt Lake and Vegas.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Duck Fan 76

[Duck Fan 76]

On 2/14/2023 at 6:26 PM, Charles Fischer said:

If you can’t make it at Clemson? You’re going to make it at Oregon State instead?

That had me rolling!  Your point is spot on that the relative talent gap between Clemson and the Beavs is ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE!

 

So in theory he's surrounded by lesser talent and will have a lesser outcome.  The one thread I will give the Beavs here is that they were knocking on the door last year with a cross-eyed kicker playing QB and Smith is a pretty dang good coach and a former QB.  Smith could work some magic with DJU.  It's a low probability outcome but non-zero.

[SoGaDawg]

On 2/23/2023 at 7:44 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Agreed!  The SEC should be sending two teams to the playoff in 2023 and I think it's very likely Georgia and LSU.  Maybe Alabama figures it out in the West but the magic 8-ball says "outlook not so good".  Incidentally if Georgia 3-peats... man... just... man...

 

As for the Big-10 their champion will get in, that's not exactly prognostication and Ohio St is tough to beat.

 

The remaining seat is likely going to be occupied by whoever has a hot hand in the ACC, Big-12 or PAC.  By hot hand I mean has the buzz mid season and doesn't drop ANY late games.  If the not-as-super conference champs drop 2 games then the Big-10 runner up could squeeeeak in.

 

I think Oregon and USC's fate in the PAC is going to come down to which team makes a bigger jump in defensive play (specifically pass rush).  If neither do then it's 2022 again and neither should go to the playoff.  The PAC could see Oregon, USC, Utah, Washington and God help us even Oregon St. take the PAC's crown.  Of those only Oregon, USC or Utah could likely drop a game and still get in to the playoff.  Washington and Oregon St. need a perfect run to get there and I just don't think that's likely.

 

What I really want to see from Oregon in 2023 is keep the offense rolling.  Seriously, keeping the offense fun to watch is what Oregon needs to keep the program growing.  On the defensive side I really want to see effective 4-man pass rush.  Simulated pressure is great at throwing off hat counts but only if the pass rush is a legitimate threat.  With the additions to the defense we have the potential to take a good sized step forward for 2023 but we're going to need to see some serious motor in the defense to win in Seattle, Salt Lake and Vegas.

 

 

Yes, I think it’s very possible for the SEC to send two teams.  However, it’s also possible that they knock each other out of contention and only send the SEC champ.  I do think GA has a very good chance to make the Playoff mainly because our schedule does seem rather lite for an SEC schedule.  Losing the Oklahoma game really hurts our SOS though. But in all likelihood, if the SEC ends with two 1 loss teams it will take a very promising looking team from another conference to keep one of them out.  I’m excited to watch the Playoff in 2024 with 12 teams.  
 

It will be interesting to see who fills the other spots.  It’s very likely that the B1G sends a team.  But I also think that while the Pac-12 could be super competitive and it’s possible that they too might knock each other out of contention, I believe it’s very possible that bc of this competitiveness a 1 loss Pac-12 Champion could make the Playoff.  Of course this is all contingent on how the other conference championships play out. 
 

As far as GA 3-peating, while I would love to see it, I think it’s unlikely.  Yes GA is super talented and coached extremely well, but we had some very fortunate breaks that helped us win some big games the last two years.  Not saying at all GA didn’t earn two in a row, I do think we were the best team and might be again, but the likelihood of getting similar breaks if needed is probably low.  Who knows though?

 

As for the Ducks, I absolutely agree that an effective 4-man pass rush could pay huge dividends for the defense.  This could also increase the efficiency and effectiveness of LBs and DBs.  A dominant or even just strong defense could potentially make a world of difference.  You got me curious and excited.  In your opinion, who are some of the additions to the Ducks defense that could make the biggest impact?

[Duck Fan 76]

On 2/23/2023 at 6:54 PM, SoGaDawg said:

In your opinion, who are some of the additions to the Ducks defense that could make the biggest impact?

Via the portal Jordan Burch is a huge add for Oregon at edge and stands out as the biggest change to the biggest position of need.  Especially with Brandon Dorlus and Mase Funa returning Burch will have an instant impact.  As you know, pass rush has to come in pairs to be truly effective and Burch and Dorlus have the traits to get pressure and Funa has shown the ability as well when they focus on blocking Dorlus.  Matayo will be young and it's a pretty big step from HS to CFB but he will get some downs and may be able to surprise some O-lineman at times.  Popo was out all last year and is coming back along with Rogers for the interior run stuff.  The most important thing is to have enough depth across the line so DL aren't gassed in the 4th quarter and the inevitable injuries don't devastate production.  The position group should be a bit faster and bigger and that usually helps.  If the line coaching is there (some technique work needs to be done for sure) then the Oregon pass rush has the athletes to make a significant jump from last year (thank God!).

 

At Linebacker I expect Keith Brown (ILB) to continue to develop and show some more of what he did at the end of 2022 (and the Ohio State game) along with transfer Jestin Jacobs.  Brown is decent in pass coverage and with the pass rush taking a step up that's a potentially great combo.  Jacobs if he remains healthy could be a stud as the Hawkeyes definitely play some defense but post-surgery play is always a bit lagged so he may come on later in the season.  Depth at ILB is a bit of problem with Oregon running the 4-2 as often as they do.  Some young talented guys may need to move into the rotation.

 

The DB room is stacked with talent and spring ball is going to be a survivor island situation.  Trikweze Bridges showed major improvement over the year and I think he steps in as the #1 corner but losing Gonzales is a big hit obviously.  At Safety Oregon has Hill and Stephens returning and Williams brother transferring in.  There should also be a good amount of competition here to push play forward.  I expect the DB play to be more consistent across the field but losing Gonzales means Bridges will be in the lock down corner role which will require him to develop quite a bit.  If the pass rush takes a good step forward then the DB's will have a lot less pressure and overall Oregon could flip from 2022 and be towards the top of the PAC in pass defense (which would be huge) but the question is can they maintain effective run defense at the same time.

[SoGaDawg]

On 2/24/2023 at 12:29 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Via the portal Jordan Burch is a huge add for Oregon at edge and stands out as the biggest change to the biggest position of need.  Especially with Brandon Dorlus and Mase Funa returning Burch will have an instant impact.  As you know, pass rush has to come in pairs to be truly effective and Burch and Dorlus have the traits to get pressure and Funa has shown the ability as well when they focus on blocking Dorlus.  Matayo will be young and it's a pretty big step from HS to CFB but he will get some downs and may be able to surprise some O-lineman at times.  Popo was out all last year and is coming back along with Rogers for the interior run stuff.  The most important thing is to have enough depth across the line so DL aren't gassed in the 4th quarter and the inevitable injuries don't devastate production.  The position group should be a bit faster and bigger and that usually helps.  If the line coaching is there (some technique work needs to be done for sure) then the Oregon pass rush has the athletes to make a significant jump from last year (thank God!).

 

At Linebacker I expect Keith Brown (ILB) to continue to develop and show some more of what he did at the end of 2022 (and the Ohio State game) along with transfer Jestin Jacobs.  Brown is decent in pass coverage and with the pass rush taking a step up that's a potentially great combo.  Jacobs if he remains healthy could be a stud as the Hawkeyes definitely play some defense but post-surgery play is always a bit lagged so he may come on later in the season.  Depth at ILB is a bit of problem with Oregon running the 4-2 as often as they do.  Some young talented guys may need to move into the rotation.

 

The DB room is stacked with talent and spring ball is going to be a survivor island situation.  Trikweze Bridges showed major improvement over the year and I think he steps in as the #1 corner but losing Gonzales is a big hit obviously.  At Safety Oregon has Hill and Stephens returning and Williams brother transferring in.  There should also be a good amount of competition here to push play forward.  I expect the DB play to be more consistent across the field but losing Gonzales means Bridges will be in the lock down corner role which will require him to develop quite a bit.  If the pass rush takes a good step forward then the DB's will have a lot less pressure and overall Oregon could flip from 2022 and be towards the top of the PAC in pass defense (which would be huge) but the question is can they maintain effective run defense at the same time.

Thanks very much for that assessment of the Ducks defense.  Sounds promising, I can’t wait to see how it turns out!!!  I honestly think that in year 2 under the watchful eye of Lanning, this Ducks D will be much improved.  If so it could be huge, especially since it appears the Ducks will be facing some very good QBs leading very formidable offenses.  
 

Again, I agree that an improved pass rush could be huge.  As you say, it could take much pressure off of the players with coverage assignments.  No matter how good a player is in coverage, it’s nearly impossible to stay in phase for an extended period of time.  This is one of the reasons that I feel that QBs that can scramble and extend plays are so dangerous.

Edited February 24, 2023 by SoGaDawg

[Duck Fan 76]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:03 PM, SoGaDawg said:

This is one of the reasons that I feel that QBs that can scramble and extend plays are so dangerous

Very true, when you look at Lamar Jackson in the NFL vs a traditional pocket passer QB mobility adds directly and indirectly to the offensive production.  The indirect addition is a broken play reception and those are potentially huge for the QB's that can connect while on the move.  Obviously they also have the ability to find a lane and get yards directly which forces defenses to either have a less aggressive pass rush to contain the pocket which itself extends the play or bring in outside help which kills the hat count.  Both of these aspects are painful for a defense to balance against especially if a mobile QB is backed up with quality play from the other positions.

 

I'm hoping that Bo in 2023 uses his mobility more for the indirect advantages to extend plays rather than pull the ball down and become a runner.  There's a time for that certainly but he will have a longer healthier career if he scrambles a bit more laterally and finds an open receiver.  Obviously with a lot of Oregon's RPO that isn't an option as the O-line is run blocking which removes any long developing passes from the scheme.  RPO is great but it also has its limits especially against simulated pressure schemes.