Floor and Ceiling for Pac 12 in ESPN Top 25

[Tandaian]

 

7. USC Trojans

Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 10 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 19%

Biggest variable: Duh -- defense. In six seasons as a head coach, Lincoln Riley has never produced an offensive SP+ ranking worse than fifth. He also has produced only one defensive SP+ ranking better than 63rd. (In 2022, the Trojans were first and 87th, respectively.) With Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and what appears to be another good skill corps returning, it's safe to say USC will again be elite offensively. But Riley and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch bear a significant burden of proof when it comes to stopping opponents. Can experience and a truckload of transfers reverse a dreadful defensive reputation?

 

9. Oregon Ducks

Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4
Initial SP+ rank: 8 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 23%

Biggest variable: Offensive line. Bo Nix was one of the stories of 2022, throwing for nearly 3,600 yards and 30 touchdowns after his transfer from Auburn. With most of his skill corps returning, and with an iffy defense returning enough experience to project improvement, there's a lot to like about the Ducks as a contender in a suddenly loaded Pac-12. But Nix will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Will Stein, formerly of UTSA), and he'll be protected by an offensive line replacing four starters. If it holds up, Oregon is a top-10 team. But what if it doesn't?

 

11. Washington Huskies

Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 16 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 13%

Biggest variable: Defensive efficiency. The third of six potential Pac-12 contenders on the list, the Huskies surged from 4-8 to 11-2 in Kalen DeBoer's first season as head coach. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns and elected to return to Seattle to once again pair up with the dynamite receiver duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The defense was merely solid, however, attempting a bend-don't-break approach but bending way too much. Playmakers like Bralen Trice and Tuli Letuligasenoa do return, but the Huskies need to do much better at knocking opponents off schedule.

 

13. Utah Utes

Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 13 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 7%

Biggest variable: Big plays (same as always). The announced return of quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, among others, gave Kyle Whittingham's Utes a shot in the arm in their pursuit for a third straight conference title. But your margin for error is always iffy when you lose the big-play battle, and that has long been an issue for Utah. They ranked 104th in marginal explosiveness on offense and 131st on defense. They're as physical and efficient as ever, but in a loaded conference race, now would be a great time to gain control over the gashes.

 

17. Oregon State Beavers

Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6
Initial SP+ rank: 31 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 4%

Biggest variable: DJ U. Jonathan Smith's Beavers leaped from 89th to 16th in defensive SP+ (and, consequently, from 7-6 to 10-3) last year and should have the pieces to at least threaten another top-30 performance on that side of the ball. But injuries and iffy play at quarterback held them back -- they averaged just 17 points per game with eight interceptions and no TD passes in three losses. Will Clemson quarterback transfer DJ Uiagalelei turn around both his career and OSU's offensive trajectory with a move out west? If so, this might be a five-team Pac-12 title race.

 

23. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Ceiling: 9-3 | Floor: 5-7
Initial SP+ rank: 35 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 1%

Biggest variable: Defense, as always. In the past 13 years, Texas Tech has never finished in the defensive SP+ top 60 and has only once topped 78th. Last year: 82nd. Joey McGuire's first season in charge was exciting -- Tech beat both Texas and Oklahoma on the way to its first eight-win season in nine years -- and we're seeing some "sleeper Big 12 contender?" buzz after a solid batch of super seniors (including quarterback Tyler Shough) announced their returns. The defense is experienced, but unless experience translates into a top-50ish performance, the buzz will likely be for naught.

 

UCLA Bruins

Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 21 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 12%

Biggest variable: Newbies. The Bruins won 17 games in 2021-22, but we seem to be writing them off a bit in 2023 after the departures of seven offensive starters, including QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet. But Chip Kelly has worked the transfer portal aggressively in 2023, bringing in seven potential starters on offense, plus a few on defense as well. This will be a new but experienced team this fall, and if the chemistry experiment succeeds, they have more than enough talent to make this a ... five-way Pac-12 race? Six-way? Eight-way? What number are we up to now?

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

Terrific take, thank you.

 

For comparison purposes.

 

GEORGIA - ESPN #1/SP+ #1

 

Ceiling: 12-0/Floor: 9-3. Odds to finish better than 11-1: 62%

 

Biggest Variable: Quarterback. I'd add - Replacing OC Todd Monken with 're-tread' OC Mike Bobo.