SEC and B1G Conferences Will Dominate 1st Round of the 2023 NFL Draft

[Jon Joseph]

ESPN NFL draft gurus. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have both released their respective prospective 1st Round of the NFL 2023 draft.

 

I use the term 'guru' in the case of these too lightly; lightly as a pillow made out of Puddles feathers. Do not liquidate all of your possessions and join the Cult of Kiper or the Cult of McShay. Their predictions rarely follow the course of an actual NFL draft. But both are pretty good at predicting the conference from which given players will be drafted. Following are the combined conference rankings these two have come up with for the 2023 1st round of the draft.

 

SEC - 21 (and this does not include 1 player drafted from Texas and 1 from Oklahoma that in 2024 would give the SEC 23 1st-round picks.)

 

B1G - 16 (and this does not include 3 picks from the Pac-12 from USC that in 2014 would give the B1G 19 1st-round picks.)

 

ACC - 8

 

B12 - 7 (including 1 player from Oklahoma and 1 from Texas.)

 

Pac-12 - 7 (including 3 players from USC. Oregon's CB Gonzales is a 1st-round pick as is Utah's, TE Kincaid.)

 

Notre Dame - 3

 

62 1st-round picks and not 64; Miami forfeited its 1st-round pick. This is hard to believe for a team in SEC territory where the 1st rule of recruiting is 'if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin' and the 2nd rule is 'don't get caught y'all.'

 

If you follow the money the SEC dominating the 1st-round with the B1G not far behind is completely logical. If you follow recruiting rankings the SEC dominating with the B1G not that far behind is also completely logical.

 

The above numbers also help explain why the B12 was willing to sign an early media renewal agreement with ESPN and FOX with each B12 member receiving $31.7M per annum under the new agreement. This number many consider to be a low-ball number but one that locked in the 4 new B12 members (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF) and the B12 members remaining after Oklahoma and Texas leave for the SEC in 2024. The vast majority of B12 games under the new media deal will be available on linear broadcasts. 

 

Former commissioner Bob Bowlsby 'signed up' the 4 new members and the new B12 commissioner, Yarmack, jumped ahead of the Pac-12/10 to complete the new media deal. I note that Bob Bowlsby, former athletic director at Stanford, called out ESPN for the 'theft' of Oklahoma and Texas. FOX did the same thing in arranging UCLA's and USC's move to the B1G but not surprisingly we have heard nothing derogatory coming from the Pac-12 powers that be aimed at FOX.

 

The above numbers along with the western-most geography of the Pac-12 that is not producing 4* and 5* recruits like it used to and is losing many of its 4* and 5* recruits to the SEC, B1G, and even the B12, the failure to place a team in the college football playoff for many years, the failure to win a basketball championship for decades, the terrible leadership under Larry Scott and the people he reported to and the conference vacillating over expansion and slow walking a new media deal have led to the conference to floundering with finalizing a new media deal at a number per team that is equal to or exceeds the B12's new media deal.

 

Nevertheless, I expect the Pac-10 possibly expanding by two to four new members will stay together and in 2024 compete for one or more college football playoff spots when the field expands to twelve teams. If for some reason the conference does not hold together I do not expect Oregon and its terrific national and international football brand to be at risk of not finding a home to compete for both football and basketball championships.

 

But it is becoming clearer year after year that we are now living in a world with two power conferences and three trying to stay within hailing distance financially and recruiting the 'Jimmies and the Joe's' who go on to play ball in the NFL and the NBA.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

Those numbers are pretty damning to our conference, yet Dan Lanning pulled in the second best recruiting class ever among high schoolers in the entire 100+ history of Oregon football.  (He had the BEST of any first year HC at Oregon)

 

Because of the Oregon brand you referred to--I think Lanning will get more than his fair share of top recruits, as we gradually become what Clemson used to be in the ACC.

 

[Jon Joseph]

Charles, a great reminder of the excellent class Lanning et al pulled in and it is looking really good recruiting-wise for 2004. 

 

With a 12-team playoff field coming in 2024 and perhaps going to a 16-team field in 2026 when playoff broadcast rights go out to bid and with SC/UCLA going away the Ducks should be in a position to make the field year after year. 

 

Then it will be up to Oregon to see how far it can go playoff-wise. Clemson won titles with great QB play coming out of a weak conference. Clemson did have a blue-chip roster (more than 50% 4* and 5* players) when it won its titles but Oregon's recruiting has been on par with Clemson's. 

 

I think the rivalry with UW will become even more heated and Utah will be in the mix as long as Whitingham is there. CU? That's a total rebuild and who knows how long Coach Prime will stay out west. ASU? Will the 'sleeping giant' ever wake up? 

 

Championship opportunities will be there without having to play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, an always dangerous Iowa team, improved Wisconsin under Coach Fickell, and possibly a resurgent Nebraska under Coach Ruhle. And not having to travel to the east coast to play a decent Maryland and the chance to be upset at Rutgers.

 

I believe the Pac-10 will hold together and Oregon will find the same kind of success that Dabo has brought to Clemson. 

 

 

 

 

[Nevada Dawg]

I hope you are right Jon about Lanning achieving the kind of success Dabo achieved at Clemson. I think it quite possible if the Ducks make it into the 12-team playoff sooner rather than later, especially if they can win a game or two in their appearances.