Duckster

Whoops, and thanks DuckFan ... should have spelled checked myself. Never try to cook dinner and write at the same time. As to Monday's outcome, I think it will hinge on UW's (Joe Moore Award winning) offensive line's ability to counter Michigan's rugged front seven. Penix is a wizard and his receiving core virtually unstoppable (they never drop anything!) if afforded the time for route concepts to develop. I like Washington's chances in this one ...

With the conclusion of the 2023 season almost upon us, what a great time to bask and reflect on Oregon's final season of Pac-12 football. Going 12-2 and culminating in a resounding Fiesta Bowl victory (a victory total matched only 4 other times in program history, and exceeded once in 2014). By any standard, one helluva season for our boys. And yet, the elephant in the room remains. In this case it's the Dawg in the room. Because that program only a few hundred miles to the north of us has put together a season for the ages. Washington, now 14-0 with a berth in the Championship Game and a chance to go down in CFB history, has earned its place in the national spotlight. Damn ... In December of 2021 the coaching carousel was in full swing and the headlines went something like this: LINCOLN RILEY to USC!! ... DAN LANNING to OREGON!! ... kevin deboer to washington. What difference a few short seasons make. Don't get me wrong. I love Dan Lanning, believe he is a great match for Oregon, and has the potential to lead the Ducks to unprecedented heights. Lead them in fact to where Deboer has his Huskies right now, the cusp of a National Championship with a fine chance to win the whole thing. Best CFB coach west of Tuscaloosa? Monday's clash with Mr. Harbaugh might just answer that question (and then we can talk more about those Mario-like hiccups from Saturday... yikes!). I've said this before, I've got centuries as a Duck fan and have experienced, first hand, the depth of the rivalry between our two schools. That said I've become fascinated by the 2023 Huskies, and that fascination has led to a grudging respect for what Deboer, in such a short time, has built up there. In brief, he took over a 4-8 team from (greatly missed!!) Jimmy Lake and has gone 24-2 since. You want more? He won 3 NAIA national championships at Sioux Falls (and one as a player there) while compiling an overall record of 67-3 as their head coach. He then spent several years as a quarterbacks coach and OC, refining his offensive philosophies, before taking over as HC at Fresno State (from Jeff Tedford) and going 12-6 in two seasons. In short, he wins everywhere he goes. From The Atlantic comes this: "He has one core philosophy: create space to exploit one on one advantages." He accomplishes this by: 1) Creating horizontal stretches on underneath defenders. 2) Creating vertical stretches deep defenders 3) Mastering individual route technique How many times, as Oregon fans, have we recently seen this play out on the football field? Too many ... Many contend he is the product / beneficiary of players like Penix and Odunze. Now, after a bit of a deep dive into his past, I almost think its the opposite. His coaching staff (to date anyway) has been with him at various stops for over a decade (very Bellotti-like). He's a master at building culture and individual relationships. He develops players across both lines of scrimmage, and recruits skill players from the portal. I could go on, but in short I don't think he or his program is going anywhere, regardless of Monday's outcome. He, more than even the aforementioned Penix and Odunze, is the reason I believe Washington will don the crown as champions for the 2023 season. And as painful as that reality may be for all of us Duck fans, I see this as part of a new tapestry woven into the long history of this great clash . For as good and intense as we know this rivalry to be, it was largely ignored by the rest of the country. Beginning next year I believe it will quickly elevate to the best in all of college football, standing alongside the likes of Bama / Georgia, Michigan / OSU, The Iron Bowl, Red River, etc. And as fans, isn't this what we all desire to witness and be part of? Two great teams battling every year with the highest possible stakes on the line? So strap in and enjoy my friends, I think we're in for a helluva ride.

It's a good ponder point and has been a running theme throughout many of the threads on this site. I view the Ducks as a good (probably very good) team, but not elite. I also feel like the jump between good and elite is massive. Aside from luck, you need roster construction that matches scheme, high level Coaching (including coaching continuity and an established culture), roster experience with depth, and elite quarterback play. For a team like Oregon, it's a rare event when all these stars align. Since Bellotti retired the Ducks have not had the coaching continuity to build a national title contender. Perhaps DL will stay long enough, and retain enough quality assistants, to provide stability on this front. It amazes me what a turnstile Oregon has been for coaches (and not just head coaches) over the past seven years. Conversely Deboer and his staff seem immune to this program crippling disease. Go figure ... As currently constructed, the Ducks aren't even the best team in the Northwest, so there is much that requires fixing. I'm still haunted by the dominance of the line of scrimmage (both offensively and defensively) by Washington in the Championship game. I'm also haunted by Deboer's ability to devise schemes that put the Duck's on their heels ... again on both sides of the ball. To date, Oregon has been "measured, weighed, and found wanting." For all of us who have followed the Ducks over the years, we know how long a climb it is to the top. Hopefully Lanning and company will stick around long enough to plant a flag on that mountain. But to me, that remains a big if.

Good points Jon, and I agree, the point is probably moot. Ole Miss is a better fit both culturally and from a proximity standpoint. Coach 'Lance (Al Davis in his Raiders introductory press conference) has his moments every now and again. I've taken some "football" trips over the years and the SEC culture is something every CFB fan should witness first hand. Sometime I'll have to pick your brain on "best venues" in your part of the world. Ole Miss remains on my list as a place of interest.

Jon and David ... I know that Oregon is hot on him and Lanning has been excellent (to date) at adding TP guys that fit his criteria. But I see an impending dark side. If a kid's making 7 figures to play and he carries a history of transfers, he's transcended any illusion of being a student athlete. That's the world and I get it that there is no going back. But for all intents and purposes the young man is now a professional. What happens if he doesn't play or comport himself like one? Is it now OK to boo (as a fan) someone who isn't fulfilling their potential? Cause that's all part of being a pro, and you damn well better be prepared for the backlash if and when you stumble (see Klay Thompson as current example). I'm not sure I'm quite ready for the full on, unfiltered pro culture in College Football.

Charles, your joy at seeing the Dawgs struggle is infectious. But somehow this stuff never seems to translate to the field. DeBoer ... now reigning CFB Coach of the Year ... is just too damn good at his job. He fits players to scheme better than anyone, and I'm certain he'll do just fine in the portal. But hey, I'm all for enjoying the moment. Keep rolling DL!

I get it ... this guy is an athletic freak who would immediately impact an area of need. But is anyone else getting sick of this game show TP drama these kids are now embracing? "Down to the final TWO!!!" The Hell? This kid think he's Ohtani? So the Ducks are going to throw a boatload of money at a player they'll have for a year? Because that's his history. He transferred three times in High School (almost a 4th with IMG). He comes from a toxic, broken culture at A&M. How would his arrival in Eugene effect the long term, team first, culture you are trying to build (i.e someone already on the roster who is playing well but not making nearly the $$ Nolan will command)? No one is disputing his talent, but history shows he's a gun for hire, pure and simple. Sure I'm old school on this and probably clinging a bit too tight towards ingrained biases. I definitely see the need for the portal, but I still think you need to limit the number of mercenaries on the roster (Dillon Gabriel), and target players that you think will fit, will grow, and will add something longer than a single year. As I fan, I want to be able to root for a player who truly wants to be here and not someone who's just looking to get paid. A kid that truly embraces what it means to put on the jersey ... a Kayvon Thibodeaux or even a Bucky Irving ... a "Man of Oregon." In the end I think Nolen will end up playing for Ole Miss ... and that won't bother me in the least.

Charles ... that's a great point about the similarities between Chip and Deboer. He really is a version of Chip 2.0, and Lanning is going to have his future hands full trying to devise schemes to beat this guy. In a few years I fully expect J. Smith to get things rolling at MSU. Man, no one said this jump the B1G was going to be easy. And Haulin ... I feel your pain on this as well. The professionalism of the college game is hard to watch, and its still too early in the TP era to know how all of this will eventually shake itself out. I guess I'm invested enough to sit and watch it unfold before making any major decisions. I do find myself watching more High School sports than ever before, so that may be part of the reason why. On a purely personal level I'm still trying to wrap my head around a young 20 something hanging around campus, taking a class or two while earning a six or seven figure salary. WTH??? I was the classic starving student during my years in Eugene ... odd jobs here and there for pocket change ... but loving the place nonetheless. What a difference! Alls I can say is that stud better stand for a couple of house rounds at Taylors every now and again as a way of saying thanks and appeasing the football gods.

There was a time not so long ago that the CFB dead season (now) and the offseason were periods for fans to revel in their teams ability to compete on the recruiting trail and "win the offseason." Now? The transfer portal has changed everything. The migration of proven high end talent across the board is astonishing. Armed with a fist-full of cash, coaches now go shopping. Plug a hole for a quarterback? Go shopping. Need that brick wall on the interior of your defensive front? Go shopping. How about a pair of corners, or a receiver, or tight end? You get the picture. Deion went so far as to replace his entire team ... though we all witnessed the extent of that train wreck. So what does this all really mean in terms of building a team? How important is the evaluation of high school talent today, especially for the skill positions where audition tapes for portal transfers outstrip anything you can gather from a high schooler? Even the definition of a 5 Star HS recruit can be legitimately questioned. We just saw the addition of Dillon Gabriel as QB1 for the Ducks. Wonderful. But the cost was losing former 5 Star T Thompson, who opted out for the portal (and who can blame him)? As an aside, did you know that all three of this year's Heisman finalists were transfer quarterbacks, and that 5 of the past 6 winners were transfers? What does this say about player development across all fronts? And perhaps even more important (not that Oregon made the wrong decision), how is the chemistry of a team affected when you opt for a 1 year mercenary over a well liked teammate? But getting back to my point on player recruiting rankings, how do you compare a 4 or 5 star high schooler against a former 3 star portal transfer with 2 years of starting experience at a FBS or high end FCS program? Don't get me wrong, I still enjoy Oregon pulling in record numbers of high end recruits, but at the end of the day, what does that really mean? Because if you go by the class rankings Oregon with years of top 10 or 15 classes under its belt should be head and shoulders ahead (talent wise) of Washington, Utah or OSU. Have any of us seen evidence of that on the field of play? Conversely and painfully, Deboer has consistently molded his top 30 classes into teams that give Oregon fits. Not sure that's going to change anytime soon, regardless of recruiting stats. Dabo and Clemson went old school and eschewed the portal and paid the price. Deion and Colorado went portal crazy and paid the price. For Lanning and the Ducks, roster construction and system / talent alignment, has to be all about finding that sweet spot between HS and portal talent. But in reality, does anyone really know where that sweet spot is anymore?

Hey David, kudos to you for a wonderful piece of writing. Interesting that despite age, life experience, personality, etc., we all process in different ways. Always nice to know that there are others who take these losses (admittedly) harder than they should, and that the "recovery" time for each of us varies. I can now say that I've spent centuries watching the Ducks. My freshman year, Air Force, with Norval Turnover as our QB (yes that Norv Turner for those who follow this stuff). I also came west from Virginia, full of ignorance and old allegiances, really not knowing what I was getting myself into. Oregon would stink for the next 15 years. It was a litany of bad coaches (we can debate the yin-yang of Rich Brooks another time), terrible facilities and a small very apathetic fanbase (who could blame us/them)? You guys remember the "Bottom Ten"? ... we lived there. Somehow, despite all of that trauma I became an eternal fan. It's really not something I can help now, it just is Just as my bitterness after a loss like last week will linger for some time to come. Hell, I'm still bitter about Stanford (my near neighbor) repeatedly stealing our lunch some years back and depriving us of conference championships and Rose Bowls. I no longer beat myself up for responding the way I do, or allowing that reaction to define my personal definition (or level) of maturity. Again, at this point in my life, it is what it is. I now have my coping mechanisms firmly in place and can compartmentalize with the best of them. So it's much easier for me at this stage of life to set all things Duck aside for awhile and let time and life wash the wound clean. And there it will remain ... managed but never forgotten.

I wonder, does that include breakfast?

Meh ... doesn't move the needle much for me. Not without talent but way too much to fix with only one year of eligibility remaining. And don't we already have our very own Bluto Blutarsky award winner on the roster? Isn't Dorlus a 7 year man? Not that I'm complaining ... his seven years at Oregon were far from " down the drain." Young man is absolutely balling out this year.

Agree with Haulin that Moore hasn't shown that he's a clear upgrade over T. Thompson. I watched a lot of his games at UCLA and the two appear to have similar skill sets (albeit from a limited sample size). Both are tall, rangy and possess above average arm talent. And though both are capable of moving, they are long striders and it takes them a few steps to get up to speed. Chip is usually pretty good with young QB's and his system is quarterback friendly. The fact that Moore regressed as the season went on is not a good sign. Though UCLA's line was a sieve, Moore didn't help matters by consistently holding the ball for too long and his lack of overall pocket presence. His first series against Cal illustrated the point. He stood flatfooted like a statue for probably 5 seconds ... virtually no body movement at all ... before getting absolutely lit up by Cal's defensive end and fumbling. Not pretty to watch. I think the Ducks can do better in the portal, especially given the strength of their O-line, and the explosiveness of their offensive system under Lanning and Stein. I especially like Ward from WSU, though one and done's are not optimal and I think he only has one year of eligibility remaining. Interesting how narratives change in a year. Moore may be the classic case of 'having being no so great as wanting'.

Week 14 is upon us and the dreams of a magical season are still alive and resonating. But it's like being in the high mountains, breathing that rarified air. The summit stands clear and near but you stand along a knife edged ridge. Stumble here and you won't recover. It's about extreme focus now, the task at hand, one opponent at a time, no looking ahead. For for an old salt like me though it's time for pause, and a moment of reflection, because 11-1 seasons don't come around very often, and it's worth taking in this view. As a program we started our climb some 30 years ago but you can count on one hand the number of times we've been this close to the summit. Chip, Helf, and MB all took their shots, only to fall agonizingly short. And now it's Coach Dan L's turn. The question begs itself as to why it's so difficult for Oregon ... or any team not named Alabama or Georgia ... to get to this point. For me it's all about the alignment of three very basic elements : Coaching Stability, Recruiting/Roster Construction/Development, Quarterback. For the 6 years prior to last year, coaching stability has derailed pretty much every Duck season. Starting with Helf's dismissal, we either lost an HC, DC, OC (or all three) at the end of every season. Impossible to establish any program culture, system of play, or complimentary roster given that degree of turnover. Recruiting is a given. But it's not about how many 5* you can pull in (hey there Mario!), as much as it's about building a complimentary roster in alignment with the systems you run. MC was (and still remains) the classic example of winning the offseason (recruiting), but either failing to develop or recruiting the wrong type talent for his system. It's why (imho) he'll continue fail at Miami and Coach Dan 'L will continue thrive at Oregon (more thoughts on that later). Quarterback. It's pretty much a one word paragraph. Without a seasoned, highly skilled, efficient Quarterback your team basically has no shot at the playoffs, much less at the big prize. We have Bo Nix ... and my Duck brethren ... we need to sit back and savor the last moments of his remarkable two year run in Eugene. His kind doesn't come around very often (also more thoughts on this later). And so we're back to this week. We have the coach, we have (tho not yet fully formed) the complimentary system and roster construction, and (the good lord bless him) we have the quarterback. Will that be enough to beat a very talented, battle tested Washington team and their 4 down wizard at quarterback? For Penix , like Willams, is capable of beating you on any down, at any distance, at any point on the field ... 4 down. I think, at this point in the season, that Oregon is playing its best football and has been improving incrementally since the loss. I think we're as aligned as we've been since Chip left, and I think we are now the more complete team. I think we win the rematch on Friday. What do you good folks think?

Moving forward, this is probably my single biggest area of concern for this team. Big Charles has a great saying about greatness showing early. If any remember CL's first year, he struggled with even making extra points (let alone chip shot field goals) despite all of his high school accolades and the promise of a big leg. It became obvious even then that Lewis had the physical attributes for the position, but not the mental. Unfortunately its deja vu this season, and now the problem is acute, given the stage and the stakes. No way to sugar coat it, the kid is mentally cooked. He's even become a liability on kickoffs given his inability to reliably keep his kicks in the field of play. If I'm Coach Dan'L, I wouldn't trust him from 30 yards if its a pressure kick to tie or win a game, and that pretty much changes your whole red zone strategy. Yeesh! How did we get here at this most critical juncture of the season? Couldn't it have been addressed earlier, like during a bye week? Coaches must know by now that despite all his practice highlights he's not capable of transferring any of that to game day. Is it now too late to make a change? And if you don't (or if you do!!) will it ultimately cost us a game and derail a dream season? Damn, what a mess!