Duckman2

The reality of the matter is that Michigan is the only playoff team that passes the eye test. Washington, Texas and Alabama do not pass the eye test. If FSU had made the playoffs, they wouldn’t pass the eye test either. Clearly FSU does not pass the eye test, but I’m not sure why people act like Alabama passes the eye test themselves. Yes, Michigan would be double digit favorites over FSU, but if Alabama was named Ole Miss and had the exact same results, they’d also be double digit underdogs to Michigan. I see no reason why a one loss team that doesn’t pass the eye test should be selected over an undefeated team that doesn’t pass the eye test.

The best 4 teams in pretty much all power ranking formulas (SP+, FPI, etc.) are Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon. So, with the sole exception of Michigan, they aren’t even selecting the best teams like they claim. And, no, I’m not saying that Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon should be the 4 team playoff. I’m just saying that the committee actually isn’t following their claimed criteria of selecting the best 4 teams.

Remember how Alabama and Texas kept whining about being behind Oregon due to the eye test? But now they're citing the eye test to be ranked above an undefeated team? Why is Alabama supposed to look so good against the eye test, anyway? Are the bad performances vs USF, Auburn, aTm and Arkansas all erased by the UGA game?

It's as clear as can be, although every media source except the Montgomery Advertiser is ignoring it. Did Alabama WR Isaiah Bond push off on game-winning touchdown vs. Auburn in Iron Bowl? WWW.MONTGOMERYADVERTISER.COM Isaiah Bond helped Alabama win the Iron Bowl in dramatic fashion on Saturday. However, replay seems to show him push off vs. Auburn's D.J. James. This would have resulted in 4th and goal from the Auburn 46 yard line. If I'm not mistaken, that would be just 2 yards shorter than the Flutie play, which I believe was from the Miami 48 yard line. SEC officials totally did everything possible to give Alabama that game. Remember there was also that totally ridiculous 3rd down "conversion" where Alabama clearly missed the first down by at least half a yard. (Although that didn't end up mattering because Alabama ended up punting later on that possession.) If this penalty had been called, there would be zero question whatsoever that Oregon would be in the playoffs with a win tomorrow.

I don't agree with threads on here arguing why we shouldn’t make the playoffs. The facts are 1. We have one close win, to Alabama and Texas’ 3 apiece. Alabama’s 14 point win over USF was pretty bad, too. 2. Our only loss will be to Washington, whose only loss will be to…….. Oregon. On the other hand, Alabama has lost to Texas, who lost to OU, who lost to Oklahoma State, who lost to South Alabama. South Alabama is a 6-6 Sun Belt team. You can’t find too many loss chains more awful than that. 3. The PAC had 8 ranked teams when conference play started. PAC teams have only fallen out of the rankings because of their results against other PAC teams. 4. Ranking 8-4 Tennessee (which lost to Florida) and not ranking Utah (who beat Florida) was an arbitrary choice by the committee that really doesn’t make sense.

Oregon's only loss is to Washington. By the end of the year, Washington will be a one loss team, whose loss will be to..... Oregon. Let's look at Alabama and Texas as a contrast. Alabama has lost to Texas, who lost to Oklahoma, who lost to Oklahoma State, who lost to South Alabama. South Alabama is a 6-6 Sun Belt team.

Good Lord. I am so sick of hearing about that. Not only is it Texas Tech now probably the single most injured team in the nation, but that was Oregon’s sole close game, to 3 close games for Texas. Texas has a 7 point win over Houston, 3 point win over TCU and a 1 point OT win over KSU. There’s a reason why we were only favored by something like 4 points against Texas Tech in the first place (on top of people not realizing how good we’d end up being)- it’s because we basically played an entirely different Texas Tech team than Texas did. If the committee was going to use that BS reason to move us behind Texas, they would have done so this week. The reason why the committee might move is behind Texas next week is because they beat Alabama, and the committee might (completely unjustifiably) move us behind Alabama if they beat UGA.

24-34 at home vs 11-1 Texas 17-3 on road vs 6-6 USF 26-20 on road vs 7-5 Texas A&M 24-21 at home vs 4-8 Arkansas 27-24 at home vs 6-6 Auburn This represents 5 of their 11 FBS games. (With one of the non-shitty FBS games being vs Middle Tennessee.) Does anybody seriously doubt that Oregon would have done vastly better vs all 5 of their opponents? Has there ever been a playoff team that’s done this shitty in 5 different games? Can anybody explain why people think this Alabama team should vault past us if they beat Georgia

Ohio State is not getting into the playoffs ahead of Oregon. Oregon is already ahead of Ohio State, and Ohio State doesn’t have a chance to avenge their loss like Oregon does. I also doubt that a 1 loss UGA would get into the playoffs ahead of us. The only concern is that Alabama and by extension presumably Texas (due to head to head over Alabama) would move ahead of us if Alabama beats Georgia. Really Alabama should have lost any case to move ahead of Oregon after they barely beat a team that was routed by New Mexico State, but you never know what way the committee will think. The committee has already resisted pressure for weeks to move Texas and Alabama ahead of us (we were ahead of them even before Alabama’s shitty game against Auburn), but you never know if they’ll do some last second switcheroo.

There is some precedent for this. Remember FSU got the #3 seed in 2014, behind 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Oregon. And in 2014 there was always an impression that FSU was really better than how they were actually playing. (Due to the greatness of the 2013 FSU team the previous year.) In 2023, there’s really not a lot of reason to think FSU is any better than how they’ve performed. We haven’t passed FSU yet, but I wouldn’t rule out that possibility next week.

Alabama winning would be bad for Oregon. If Alabama beats Georgia, both they and Texas (due to the head to head win) might move ahead of Oregon. I think that Oregon would still remain ahead of Alabama and Texas, but it’s not a given. If Georgia beats Alabama, there’s no doubt that an Oregon win over UW will get us in the playoffs.

Texas will remain ranked ahead of Alabama no matter what due to the head to head win. In the scenario you’re describing, it would probably be 1. Michigan 2. FSU 3. Oregon 4. Texas. The SEC would miss the playoffs altogether.

Reminder that Texas and Alabama both have a transitive property loss to South Alabama, while Oregon’s only transitive property loss is to Washington. Texas and Alabama also have 3 close wins apiece to Oregon’s 1. Even if Alabama beats Georgia, Alabama and Texas getting into the playoffs ahead of Oregon would be an absurd joke.

I’m glad they put Ohio State behind us but between Texas and Alabama. This provides more of a buffer Alabama and Texas will have to jump over if Alabama beats Georgia. Would they seriously leapfrog the #7 and #8 team over the #5 team after the #5 team beats the #3 team, the #7 team beats the #18 team and the #8 team beat the #1 team? It would seem so absurd.

Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43% Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance. I wish I was half as confident as this playoff predictor is. https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

There isn't really any doubt Oregon will be #5 this week. What I would like to see this week is Michigan moving ahead of Georgia into the #1 spot. That would indicate that the committee will have less respect for a potential Alabama win over UGA. I'll feel pretty better if Ohio State remains #6, ahead of both Texas and Alabama. (Already the case with the AP and coaches poll) That would indicate that the committee isn't trying to possibly create more of an excuse to move Texas and/or Alabama into the playoffs next week.

Georgia is a 5 point favorite IIRC. It really wouldn't be that huge of an upset. Georgia themselves really hasn't looked as good as previous years. (In fact, they were at a marginal risk of going to overtime vs a 6-6 Georgia Tech team in the last 3 or 4 minutes.) And really Georgia's unspectacular performance this year is all the more of a reason why Oregon should be ranked ahead of both Alabama and Georgia if Alabama beats Georgia. Vaulting #8 over #5 after the #5 team beats the #3 team and the #8 team beats the #1 team would be ridiculous and completely unprecedented. It would be even worse than vaulting Ohio State to #4 because they beat #13 Wisconsin 59-0 on a week where TCU beat 2-10 Iowa State 55-3 and Baylor didn't play. But who knows what gifts the committee might give the SEC.

Yeah, exactly. So far, the committee has been ranking Oregon ahead of both Texas and Alabama precisely because they are applying the transitive property properly. And it's really 100% certain they'll continue to apply the transitive property this week and have Oregon at #5, Ohio State at #6, Texas at #7 and Alabama at #8. What's scary is not this week but next week, if Alabama beats Georgia. Really, that should just mean that Texas should be ahead of Alabama, who should be ahead of Georgia, and that Oregon and Washington should be ahead of all 3 of those teams. But it's far from a given that the committee will see things that way. (In fact, it's pretty much a given that they'd rank Washington behind most if not all 3 of those teams.)

The bottom line is that Oregon’s only loss would be to a team that hasn’t lost to anybody except for Oregon. On the other hand, Texas has lost to 2 loss OU, which has lost to 3 and 4 loss teams, who have in turn lost to even worse teams (including South Alabama.) It shouldn’t get any more clear cut for the committee than that.

Oregon’s sole loss is to Washington. Oregon is now the only team that UW has a chance of losing to. So Oregon looks very good transitive property wise. Now, let’s look at Texas and Alabama as a comparison. Alabama lost to Texas, which lost to Oklahoma, which lost to Oklahoma State and Kansas. Among Oklahoma’s State’s losses is a 33-7 loss to South Alabama. So Texas and Alabama look a lot worse transitive property wise. Now, let’s look at close wins. Oregon has one close run, over Texas Tech. Alabama had three close wins (Auburn, Arkansas, aTM) and Texas also has 3 close wins (KSU, Houston, TCU). So Oregon does a lot better in the close win department. Furthermore, Texas’ close win over Kansas State was achieved in a total joke manner, with Texas only winning because KSU missed both an extra point and a 25 yardish field goal in the 4th quarter. Alabama’s win over Auburn was achieved in an even bigger joke manner, due to Auburn rushing 2, putting 8 guys in the end zone and leaving one guy doing nothing on a 4th and 31. Alabama and Texas had absolutely nothing to do with their opponent’s missed kicks and horrendous 4th and 31 defense. Bottom line: If Oregon beats Washington, yet misses the playoffs anyway, it will be an indefensible disgrace.