Jon Joseph

Baylor AD and Playoff Chairman Mack Rhodes: 'The rankings are a blend of art and science.' No. 9 - Oregon is 7-1 with the 28th most difficult schedule according to the Massey Ratings. OBD's future SOS is ranked 18th. (I'm using Massey because, of course, the metrics the PO committee uses are super-secret, and I lost my Buck Rogers in the 25th Century Decoding Ring five or six decades back. 😁) Oregon's sole loss was to the Committee's 2nd-ranked team, Indiana. The undefeated Hoosiers SOS is ranked No. 34, undefeated No. 1 Ohio State's is 44th, undefeated A&M's schedule is ranked the 7th most difficult. I get why Booger is bugged. No. 8 - Texas Tech is 8-1 with Massey's 51st most difficult schedule and 54th in future SOS. Texas Tech's loss was to a not-unranked ASU team. Looks like science was used to drop Oregon from AP No. 6 to 9th. Looks like Texas Tech benefited from the PO Artful Dodgers Eye Test. The highest-ranked 2-loss team is Notre Dame because of two close losses and a win over No. 19 USC. ND defeated SC in a downpour by 10 points. If this is such a great win, why isn't 2-loss SC in the top 15? USC's remaining SOS is No. 17, Notre Dame's is 42nd. 2-loss Notre Dame is ranked ahead of 1-loss Virginia, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. And 2-loss Miami, which defeated Notre Dame. I remain bullish on 2-loss B1G teams making the PO field, but even with touted 'new metrics,' it's PO CT. SSDD. FWIW (Nada!) Oregon has two wins over teams with winning records; Montana State is ranked 2nd in the FCS poll.

Great discussion that has the folks in Bristol smiling. What the Grapevine Gurus have to say matters on December 7th, I don't see a Ducks Day of PO Infamy heading OBD's way. I'm pulling hard for Oregon to make the PO because I'm a Fanatic, the recruiting bump from being a team you can count on to get you to the PO, the chance to win it all, even if you finish in fourth place in the Big Ten in the regular season 🙃, the millions of dollars for the conference for every conference team in the field, and the stamp of further approval on the Oregon brand and consequent income from merchandise sales. A win on the road over the PO committee's No. 20 team will, of course, help the PO cause. Unless it's a blowout loss, a Ducks loss may put OBD on PO life support, but not on the critical list. Oregon, with the 18th most difficult remaining schedule in college football, according to Massey, is in the playoffs with a 10-2 record. The Indiana loss from the committee's perspective is, except for the Texas loss at Ohio State, as good as it gets. A competitive road loss to a top 20 team will not be viewed as a bad, PO-disqualifying loss. The Big Ten Championship game will feature No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana. Ohio State will not lose to Purdue, UCLA, or Rutgers. This Michigan team will not defeat an Ohio State team that will not ground it out as it inexplicably did last season. This Michigan team will not be able to disrupt the Ohio State passing game and score enough points to win the game. Penn State could keep it close against Indiana, but the Hoosiers should prevail. How about this item Cig can use to have his team come out smokin' 😁, the Hoosiers have never won a road game against Penn State, and are 2-25 vs. the Nits. Win this game and after a late as it can get bye, I don't see Indiana losing at Purdue. USC is odds-on to defeat Northwestern Friday night. Same for UW at Wisconsin on Saturday. Minnesota is 6-3 and bowl eligible. I don't see the Gophers defeating the Ducks, but with a finish at Northwestern and Wisconsin at home, the Gophers could finish 8-4. After the Wisconsin game, UW hosts Purdue and then plays at UCLA. UW is odds-on to be 9-2 when Oregon visits, and with ranked SEC, ACC, and B12 teams playing one another, UW will be ranked higher than 23rd the final week of the regular season. One of Iowa or USC will, of course, have a loss in Week 12 when the Hawkeyes play the Trojans in LA. Iowa finishes with a game against Michigan State, and then is on the road against a crippled Nebraska team, and should finish no worse than 8-4. Big Ten teams that go 9-3 will finish in the committee's top 25. Seven B1G teams are ranked, two behind the SEC, two more than the ACC, which somehow has five teams ranked, and four more than the B12. Any B1G team that finishes with two or fewer losses is in the PO field. Hammer the Hawkeyes!

College Football News Likes OBD 24 to 17 https://collegefootballnews.com/college-football/oregon-vs-iowa-prediction-preview-2025

Here's hoping Joel is full of Klatt! 🤬 Who’s Likely to Climb Into the CFP — and Who Could Fall Out? | FOX Sports

A few Foxy takes on the 1st ranking - 4 Takeaways From the First CFP Rankings Release of 2025

OBD wins 70% of the simulated games. So, simply win. 😁 Oregon vs. Iowa football prediction: Where the experts see an edge

Iowa has a solid run game, but is last in the B1G in passing. Load that box! YardbarkerOregon has a clear path to victory against Iowa but it wi...When Oregon travels to Iowa City this weekend, the Ducks know exactly what kind of team they’ll face. The Hawkeyes have built an offense rooted in physicality and patience, utilizing a run-first appro

USA Today has grades for the committee's first ranking. OBD at No. 9 gets the committee a C. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2025/11/05/college-football-playoff-rankings-grades-snubs/87094619007/?utm_source=usatoday-sports-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usatbaseline&utm_

Metrics? Notre Dame, with a loss to 2-loss Miami and a worse SOR than several 2-loss teams, is at No. 10, the highest-ranked 2-loss team. Baylor AD and committee chair Mack Rhodes went out of his way to explain that Oregon was dropped three spots from its AP ranking (Rob, cancel that series with Baylor!) because of its schedule to date, while justifying ND's ranking on the Irish looking good in the eyes of the committee. AP NewsCollege Football Playoff committee makes clear it will us...The College Football Playoff selection committee has revealed its first rankings, with Ohio State taking the top spot.

Not quarreling with the excellent take, but We Need the Dues! Every team in the PO field means millions of dollars for the conference and a nice payday for every conference team. I think come 2030 and a new media deal, and as is the case in the ACC today, teams that make the CFB playoff and CBB tourney will be keeping most, if not all, of the postseason revenue. OBD's loss in the 2nd round of last season's playoff, 😒, still meant millions of dollars for the conference. As did Indiana's 1st round loss, and Penn State and Ohio State brought in B1G bank. Interestingly, teams that advance to the champ game make the same money as the teams eliminated in the semifinals.

Courtesy of Stewart Mandel, wouldn't this be an interesting dilemma? 🤬 The last PO spot comes down to a 10-2 Ole Miss, that played thin air OOC, and a 3-loss Texas team that played Ohio State? If the Committee were presented with this and chose Ole Miss, shouldn't every P4 OOC game be canceled?

The home team manages ticket sales for 1st round PO games. The Playoff Poohbahs manage ticket sales thereafter. The home team must allocate 3500 tickets for the visiting team, including not more than 500 (!) for the visiting team's band. The number of Vols fans in Columbus last season for the 1st round game against Ohio State was an anomaly. Tennessee fans cracked the ticket sales code and volunteered to watch a beatdown of their mighty SEC team.

Notre Dame's two losses came at Miami, no longer a stellar loss, and at home versus Texas A&M. ND did not and does not play Michigan this season. Michigan lost at Oklahoma and SC. ND plays at Pitt after the Panthers are off this week, while ND plays Navy. Under Pat Narduzzi, Pitt has a solid record in Acrisure Stadium, which used to be Heinz Stadium, which replaced Three Rivers Stadium. 🤔The Panthers, undefeated since replacing the starting QB, will be sky high for this game. Pitt has a solid defense. 6th nationally against the run, giving up 80.9 yards a game. If Pitt can hold down ND's run game, it has a good chance of knocking ND out of the PO. This is a PO elimination game for ND. Pitt with wins over Georgia Tech and Miami, would finish 7-1 in conference, with a chance of playing in the ACC champ game. If OBD has a close loss against Iowa or UW on the road, or a close loss to an SC team that finishes with two losses, I double down on my call of a 10-2 Oregon team being in the PO field. Indiana will finish the regular season 12-0 and will be ranked in the committee's top two before the champ game. The loss to Indiana will continue to be a 'good' loss. The committee will value wins over teams it has ranked as of now, especially road wins, and will not ding OBD for a close loss to a team it has ranked. 3-loss B1G teams will be in the committee's final top 25. The committee has over one-third of the B1G conference teams ranked, two fewer than the SEC, with many SEC teams having tough games to be played. Two fewer ranked teams than the SEC, but three more than the ACC and the B12. The committee does not believe the B1G is only three teams deep. If OBD wins this Saturday, the loser of the BYU at Texas Tech game will be ranked behind Oregon next week. As of today, the ACC, without an upset in its champ game, is looking like a one-bid conference. Virginia's loss to NC State does not count in the ACC standings (🤪), but it counts with the committee. UVA is far from a sure thing vs. Wake and VA Tech, and on the road at Duke. Vandy plays Tennessee, so Vandy could have a 3rd loss, or Tennessee a 4th loss. A+M is at Missouri this Saturday. Odds have Mizzou losing its third game. 2-loss Texas has games left at Georgia and vs A&M, and could finish with three or four losses. The Longhorns' close loss at Ohio State and its brand name give Texas the best chance in the SEC to make the PO with three losses. A&M is undefeated, and Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama have a loss. Georgia has come close to three defeats this season. All other SEC teams have two or more losses. Bama came this close to a loss at South Carolina. Ole Miss has the easiest remaining schedule, but Ole Miss defeated Wazzu in Oxford by three points. None of these teams is invincible, and I think playing only eight conference games matters to the committee, especially the three former coaches on the committee. The SEC will place four teams in the field, perhaps five if Notre Dame goes down. The B1G will have at least three teams in the field, Ohio State and Indiana, and at least one 2-loss team from SC, Iowa, Michigan, Washington, or Oregon. I believe OBD still has a PO Mulligan. Of course, it would be nice for OBD to make it easy on the committee and its fans by going 11-1. 11-1 means a 1st round home game for the Ducks. BEAT IOWA!

Riffing on friend Geo's take on the Committee's 1st ranking reveals several 'Who Knew or Expected THIS?' games left to be played. Oklahoma - at No. 4 Bama, No. 18 Mizzou, and a side order of LSU. Texas - at No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 A&M. Georgia - No. 13 Texas and at 17 Georgia Tech. USC - No. 20 Iowa and at No. 9 Oregon. Pitt - No. 10 Notre Dame, at No. 17 Georgia Tech, and No. 18 Miami OREGON - at No. 20 Iowa, No. 19 USC, at No. 23 Washington. You never know. In the preseason, OBD, based on prior season results, had one of the easier schedules in the B1G. Now? Heading into Week 11, OBD has one of the toughest remaining schedules of any PO contender. Great challenges present great opportunities. Win these games, plus the game against bowl-eligible Minnesota, and OBD is odds-on to host the No. 11 or 12 seeded team in the 1st round of the PO. And take a 1st round nap? Hand Kirk his 90th B1G conference loss!

Great take, Geo. Joey is most certainly squirrely. RSWSS - Rubbing Shoulders With SEC Syndrome? With 3-ranked teams and a bowl-eligible Minnesota coming up, I think a 10-2 OBD, without a blowout loss, will be in the PO field. How about going 4-0 and hosting a game in Autzen!

Here's the comparison with the latest AP Poll - SEC - 9 ranked - no change B1G - 7 ranked/ +1 - This gives OBD with 3 top 25 + Bowl eligible Minnesota, a tough as it gets finishing schedule. ACC - 5 ranked/ +1 - No. 24 Pitt is off this Saturday, then hosts 10 Notre Dame, plays at 17 Georgia Tech, and hosts, and hopefully hoists, 18 Miami. 24 Pitt has a chaos-causing PO finishing schedule. B12 - 3 ranked/ -1 Notre Dame - Ranked 10 by the committee and the AP. After sinking Navy on Saturday, beware of the next game at Pitt. No one has complained more about Notre Dame playing ball outside of a conference than Pitt's coach Pat Narduzzi. Since starting true Frosh Mason Heintschel at QB, Pitt is 4-0, 7-2 overall, 4 and 1 in the ACC, and in contention for an ACC title appearance in Charlotte and a spot in the PO. https://sports.yahoo.com/article/panthers-mason-heintschel-breaks-record-233122625.html Whole lot of PO ranking shakin' goin' on before 12/7/25. And I love where OBD is ranked now, with an excellent chance to host a home game. In order to Host - Let's Start with Hoisting and Hosing Down the Hawkeyes!

Amen, Brother. And winning against ranked teams will be B1G, and also Just Mean More! 😁

The 1st Reveal Is B1G - 3 of OBD's Final 4 Opponents Ranked! https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2025-11-04/college-football-playoff-bracket-based-current-committee-rankings No. 9 at this time is just fine. OBD has the chance to shine. And I found the PO Committee Chairman's comments regarding the discussions of OBD in relation to the new metrics refreshing and not the usual ducking (sorry) of tough questions. We can parse these rankings into pulp, but it doesn't matter. SEC and B12 teams have tough games ahead. The ACC? I'm happy to see Pitt there, but this could be a one-bid league. And I'm hoping Pitt will hand Notre Dame its third loss. Indiana's remaining schedule is a joke. And the Hoosiers playing thin air OOC? Doesn't matter. TOSU also has a cake walk before playing a Michigan team that just lost its best running back. It looks like OBD has the chance to earn a bye and limit the B1G to 3 PO teams, or Oregon has the chance to usher a 4th B1G team into the PO, or both? The Games We Remember ...

Today's CFB is so much about roster management. Two seasons back, Mike Norvell soared with FSU's portal players. The last two seasons? And in 2025, it started so well for the Seminoles. How have Clemson and Penn State fared with many returning players? Coached at the top by two coaches with two titles and a boatload of wins. Recruiting stars out of HS is fine, but how long will they stick around if they're not starting? Even when they are next man up on the depth chart. How much money is there to keep backups who have been told they're great since junior high around? With 'poaching' being part of today's CFB, hats off to Dan for not losing, to date, a starter to the portal. Managing an NFL roster is easy-peasy compared to CFB. One of the reasons I am starting to see grey hairs on Danno's dome. CFB coaches in an age of (un)social media never have a day, even a Ryan Day, off. Billionaire NFL owners get it. Attempting to outspend one another is a zero-sum game. It's all designed to arrive at parity. An NFL with most teams mediocre and competitive lifts all boats. CFB Billonaires fighting it out today will, before long, head to the light of NFL-Lite. Size goes to size in business, and today's CFB is big, and B1G, and SEC business. The potential of young players matters. The experience of players matters more. Hats off to Dante for the way he has played this season, but with Bo, Dillon, Mendoza, or Mateer at QB?

Head-to-head is supposed to count if the ranking between the two teams is close.

SIgh. You're Fanatics, don't wait to be PO'd! SIForde-Yard Dash: Why We’re Already Annoyed About the CFP...The selection committee’s first playoff Top 25 drops Tuesday, and the Dash is preemptively fired up.

While waiting on the Grapevine Gurus to come forth with the 1st ranking of the season, what should CFB fans, with new strength-of-schedule (SOS) and strength-of-record (SOR) metrics in place, expect? In last season's reveal, two B1G teams, Oregon and Ohio State, were the top two-ranked teams. Eight SEC teams were in the Committee's initial top 25. Two B1G teams, AP Poll No. 1 Ohio State, and 2nd-ranked Indiana, could be the top two teams this evening. How much will SOS and SOR matter? We'll have to intuit this because, unlike the CBB Committee, the CFB Committee will not refer to metrics, RPI, and otherwise, as does the CBB Committee. The Athletic ($ Wall) has released a top-25 metrics-driven ranking using ESPN's Austin Mock's SOR rankings, ESPN's Bill Connelly's SP+ Resume Rankings, and ESPN's FPI SOR ranking. Using this ranking, the following teams would be in the PO field. 1. 8-0 Texas A&M 2. 9-0 Indiana 3. 8-0 Ohio State 4. 7-1 Alabama The same as the latest AP Poll in a different order. 5. 8-0 BYU 6. 7-1 Georgia 7. 8-1 Ole Miss 8. 8-1 Texas Tech Will we see this much love for the B12? With GameDay along for the ride, BYU is in Lubbock on Saturday, playing the once Tortilla Tossing Texas Tech, 9 AM ABC. The Cougars, playing behind a Bear, are hoping to leave Lubbock while exclaiming, "Oh Boy!" and "Every Day the PO's Getting Closer!" 😁 9. 7-1 Oregon - Mock No. 5, SP+ No. 4, FPI No. 8. 10. 7-2 Oklahoma 11. 7-1 Louisville No. 12 6-2 Notre Dame would be out of the PO in Favor of No. 24 North Texas. 👍👌😎 Other B1G Teams in the top-25: No. 19 USC, No. 20 Michigan, No. 21 UW, and No. 25 Iowa. I hope the CFB Committee will have seven B1G teams ranked, however ... Some other Forum Friend will likely beat me to it, which is more than fine, of course, but I'll post the Committee's 1st ranking once its released. Then, as ESPN so intends, we can get PO'd over nothing. 🤬

Thank you, David, for the article and the above, spot-on comment. Tonight at 5:45 PM Pacific, after ESPN milks a CBB game before and after for a larger audience, the B1G should have seven of its 18 teams ranked by the Playoff Committee: Ohio State, Indiana, OBD, Michigan, USC, Iowa, and UW. The Massey computer has these seven teams in its top 25. ESPN's Bill Connolly's SP+, with the addition of No. 22 Penn State (!), and No. 25, 6-3 Illinois, has half of the conference ranked. On the other hand, the AP Poll has every SEC team with two losses ranked, plus three-loss Tennessee. If there are so many great teams in the SEC, how can eight teams have two or fewer losses, and why don't losses in Knoxville count? I expect the SEC will dominate the rankings. Georgia struggled to put away an unranked Florida. Texas won games in overtime versus bottom-tier SEC teams Kentucky and Mississippi State. No. 3 A&M defeated Arkansas 45 to 42. On Saturday, No. 21 Michigan struggled to defeat Purdue in the B1G House. We witnessed Oregon's battle against Wisconsin in 2024 and this season. In 2024, a Nebraska team that Indiana had schooled the week prior came into Columbus and came this close to being the loss that kept the Buckeyes out of the playoff. Lower-level Power 2 teams are capable of giving the top teams a battle. I don't think games against lower-level conference opponents are that much of a problem. If only the top SEC and B1G teams were in the same conference with no easy games, B1G and SEC fans, like NFL fans, would have to handle losing many more games. But as you so perfectly point out, the schedules in these mega-conferences are the problem. From a budding rivalry and entertainment point of view, OBD and not UCLA should be playing Ohio State a week from Saturday. The first meeting of Ohio State and USC as conference rivals will not be played before the Trojans' third season in the conference. Like the SEC, I think the B1G should give each team three permanent opponents. Not only for rivalry purposes, but it would help with travel if OBD, UCLA, USC, and UW played one another every season. If you don't love traveling to New Brunswick, New Jersey, one more season to play every B1G team is no B1G deal. Again, your above comment nails it for me. I'm reasonably certain that Molly Brown enjoyed the champagne on board the Titanic. I am absolutely certain that Molly was happy to board the lifeboat.😁 Thanks again.

Raiola's backup looked lost. At UCLA, Bye, at Penn State, and Iowa is what's left for the Cornhuskers. Michigan is a much better team in the Big House, and away from LA, SC plays like it needs an Out House. 💩 Michigan RB Justice Haynes, who transferred in from Bama and was having a terrific season, will have foot surgery this week. We'll see what happens tomorrow night, but three of Oregon's final four games could be against top 25 opponents and bowl-eligible Minnesota, with road games at Iowa and UW. 🤬 The number of conference wins by Indiana's final three big opponents: 0, Zip, Nada, Nyet, and Nudge.

$$$$$$ - 🤑- Six $ signs for six sick losses when favored by 20 points + 😁 Thank goodness the U's Booster Bozos Ponied Up (like SMU 😎) and took Mari-oh-oh MIA before he destroyed Oregon's brand. 🤮 -What other coach could have kept Stoned Brook in the ball game? 🤪