Jon Joseph

Love this thread and all of the great posts. Thank you. Is it time to start a new thread on this subject?

Spot on comment Dave. In 2028, Oregon will miss both Ohio State and Michigan. The two most difficult games in 2028 look to be on the road at Penn State and Wisconsin. Rob cancels the away game at Utah State in 2028, why wouldn't he do so, and the Ducks in 2028 would play 8 home games. The same number that Michigan and Ohio State play in 2024.

Expanded College Football Playoff should adopt '5+7' model to incentivize regular season, add quality matchups - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The College Football Playoff managers are expected to vote on the format issue next week

The Pac-2 is delusional, aided and abetted by enablers who support a 're-build' of the Pac-12. It will not happen. But if it against all odds, does happen, in what world would a patched-together Pac-12 come close to ACC/B12 media revenue let alone B1G/SEC revenue? 'It's not our fault!' Yeah? So what? The rest of CFB is supposed to take it in the shorts money-wise because the marketplace stiff-armed two programs with G5 budgets. Come On Man! The Delusional 2 and its enablers should Shut the Hell Up! You want a CFB 'World Series' featuring the B1G and the SEC, keep this nonsense up. Notre Dame and UNC to the B1G. Clemson and FSU to the SEC. What creditable contender for a World Series title woud be left out?

This PO projection looks just Ducky. Way-too-early projection for 12-team 2024 College Football Playoff SATURDAYBLITZ.COM The 2024 college football season will be unlike any other. Not only is the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, but the Big Ten and SEC will also be

Not so fast, Brutus? Why Ohio State football is in no way promised the Big Ten throne SATURDAYBLITZ.COM OSU may be thrilled with the Big Ten’s current king, Michigan, losing Jim Harbaugh, but taking back the league crown will be far easier said than done. The author's use of the English language is 'somewhat' excessive, no? A 'devilish' B1G expansion? The author is the 'angel of death' when it comes to football teams being too highly touted. It is interesting to get another POV but me thinks he doth protest too much. A Mountain out of a Molehill. A tempest in a teapot. (I guess I am not immune.) 2023 records of 2024 opponents: USC - 106-53/ OREGON - 101-57/ Michigan - 98-59/ Penn State - 88-67/ Ohio State 83-71, including three G5 opponents OOC with all three coming to Columbus. This is the fact, Jack.

Micro, great take. FWIW, I plan to take a look at a few too-early top 25's, through the team a pollster has ranked No. 12 to see if the ranking 'fits' with a given team's schedule and the strength of the schedule as best as can be determined in the preseason. If a prognosticator is not predicting through the Playoff Committee's final ranking and the final AP Poll after that, why other than for 'clicks' bother? 13 SEC teams finished in the 2024 top 25 recruiting classes. As the season progresses, 13 SEC teams will not battle it out for a bid to the playoff. With the size of conferences today, with a Power 2, the wide variances in out-of-conference scheduling, and with the playing of only 8 and 9 conference games, prognostications that have multiple teams from the same conference in the top 12 are not per se illogical. But factor in the intra-conference games the highly ranked teams play against one another and many of the forecasts do not seem like they will 'pencil out' at season's end. (If you are betting OVER/UNDER Win Totals, you probably should take a long look at a team's schedule, no?) The games will be played so in that respect, none of this really matters. But it is a long off-season and forecasting the coming season, at least for some of us (get a life?) helps to shorten the off-season. I like your B1G ranking. The four Pac teams coming on board, and divisions going away so B1G West teams will not always play six 'below average' opponents, will make it more difficult for Nebraska to come back and for Iowa to win ten games every season.

Jab, good post. But Day was going to give up play calling to focus more as a CEO on the overall team (like Harbaugh) and he brought in O'Brien as his OC. O'Brien went to BC and was replaced by Kelly. O'Brien, unless Day returned as the play-caller, the switch to Kelly was needed. Other than this, there has been little change to the tOSU coaching staff. And not a lot of roster turnover except for McCord leaving, and I believe he was encouraged to leave, and the 6 quality transfers brought on board. As to compatibility between Day and Kelly, Kelly was Day's OC when Day played QB at New Hampshire, both men grew up in Manchester, NH, and Kelly brought Day along with him to Philadelphia and SFO and recommended Day to Urban Meyer. Additionally, Kelly had a very good relationship with tOSU OL coach Frye at UCLA before Frye was hired away by Day. Kelly knew he could not match the tOSU offer for Frye and Day approached Kelly before making the offer. Michigan defeated Ohio State 3 seasons in a row by winning both LOS and running the football. Day knows this and he also knows that Chip is going to run the ball. I see nothing here that does not look like a fit. Day did a great job of keeping quality draft-eligible juniors, except for Marvin Harrison Jr., in Columbus. Harrison will of course be missed but WR is not a position of concern at Ohio State. This retention of draft-eligible players is akin to what Michigan did in 2023 after being upset by TCU in the playoffs. Michigan won the title last season with a 54% Blue Chip Roster (BCR,) the return of almost all of the Wolverines draft-eligible underclassmen, and what amounted to a 2-game schedule; at Penn State and Ohio State. Ohio State in 2024 will have an 80%+ BCR and a 2 game, 3 if you want to add the game at Penn State that last defeated tOSU in 2016, to the game at OREGON and the Michigan game, schedule. I don't see any 'knee-jerking' going on and I think Kelly instead of O'Brien is positive. In 2024, pre-playoff, Ohio State is the only team OREGON will face that will have a higher-ranked roster. OREGON has a win over Day but in the B1G conference, Day has lost only 3 games as head coach, all to Michigan. The season after the loss to the Ducks, Day brought in Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to be his DC, Ohio State's D under Knowles in 2023 was one of the top 5 Ds in the country and will likely be better in 2024. The stars are aligned for tOSU in 2024 with Puddles having a B1G shot to stop a Buckeyes dream season. It will be up to Danno and friends because I do not see Ohio State beating itself via coaching dissension or otherwise.

Here are College Football News, Pete Fiutak, 15 best Over/Under Win Total Bets (Odds by DraftKings) for 2024. https://collegefootballnews.com/news/15-best-college-football-win-total-predictions-best-bets-pre-spring-2024 A few comments on these recommendations. Almost Certain Wins = ACW; Almost Certain Losses = ACL. 15. UCLA - 5.5 - OVER ACW - Fresno State (with SC finishing up with Notre Dame, Fresno is the Bruins's 12th game in 2024,) at Hawaii, Indiana ACL - at LSU, OREGON, at Penn State, at UW. 50/50 - Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, at Rutgers, USC Wild Card? How much will extensive travel affect UCLA in 2024? Will UCLA under Foster be able to play better than its roster ranking? ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12. USC - 7.5 - OVER ACW - Nebraska, Rutgers, Utah State. ACL - None 50/50 - At Maryland, at Michigan, at Minnesota, LSU (LV), Notre Dame, Penn State, at UCLA, at UW, Wisconsin. OK, paint me with The Sucker Brush. Especially with the schedule, ranked No. 2 in strength-of-schedule by SP+, the Trojans will play in 2024. Not easy in the B1G, then add on LSU and Notre Dame. However, I was impressed by the USC team that showed up to play Louisville in the Holiday Bowl. Louisville ran well against SC but the guys on D made open field tackles. And the defense and the offense for that matter, played more like a team than a bunch of guys free-lancing. I think the free-lancing started with Caleb Williams on down. And Grinch put one of the most undisciplined Ds on the field than even the Pac-12 has ever witnessed. I think the light bulb may have come on for Lincoln Riley. He knows he has to put a better D on the field to compete at a championship level and thus the poaching of DC Lynn from UCLA and an almost entire turnover of the assistant coaches on the D side of the ball. QB Miller Moss played a great game. One thing that stood out was SC's team speed, especially at the WR position, compared to No. 15 in the country Louisville. This same speed advantage will carry over against most of the opponents in the B1G. And, Riley has not forgotten how to coach an offense. Not in the Ducks league but with 11 transfer portal additions, the same number as No. 3 ranked Oregon added, SC ranks No. 12 to date in portal pickups. And, USC in the 2024 regular season misses both B1G frontrunners: Oregon and Ohio State. If USC can come out of the box with a win over LSU in Las Vegas, well ... LSU also lost a Heisman winner at QB. The LSU D was crummy in 2023 and LSU poached the Mizzou DC in an attempt to fix the D side of the ball. The comparisons with SC are very interesting. USC has only six home games but plays both Penn State and Notre Dame in LA. The Trojans do have a tough stretch of seven games in a row without a break from 9/21 at Michigan through 11/2 at UW; four of the six games will be road games. Ouch! Like Newbie Oregon, potential B1G contender SC received no scheduling breaks from B1G HQ. ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... I think Fiutak does a good job of summarizing the B12 in 2024: "Pretty much every decent-to-good team in the B12 can lose just about any or every game." I agree. I find preseason polls with both Utah and Arizona highly ranked to be off the mark. Utah has lost 4 or more games in the last 5 seasons. Will Rising coming off a severe injury be all that? When last seen in the bowl game in Las Vegas, Utah was getting punched in the mouth by, wait for it, Northwestern. Jon Wilner has the Utes preseason ranked at 5. ESPN has Utah at 10 and Arizona at 11; I don't see it. (As for another B12 team on the list, Texas Tech 8.5? The Red Raiders last won 9 games in 2008 and last won 10 games in 1976.) I think the B12 champion will be the 2024/25 Playoff 4 seed with 3 or more losses. A reason why the playoff format will change come 2026/27. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1. Ohio State - 10.5 - OVER. CFN predicts that the Buckeyes will go 12-0. All games ACW except for 50/50 at Oregon, and Penn State, and Michigan in Columbus. The Ohio State schedule is B1G Lite. I'm waiting to see whether 2nd Team All B12 QB Will Howard is that much of an improvement over Kyle McCord. One reason Howard entered the portal? He would have been the backup at K State in 2024 to Avery Johnson. I think Dillon Gabriel is much more of a 'sure thing' than Howard. Lots of on-paper talent behind Howard at QB but it is rookie talent. And OREGON comes into the 2024 season with a better OL and more certainty at OC than Ohio State. Ohio State, compared to OREGON, USC, Penn State, and Michigan, has an easier schedule. 8 home games is nice. 3 cupcakes OOC in Columbus to break in a new QB and OC is nice. Per CFN - 'In 2024 this Ohio State team is so loaded it had better hit at least 11 wins (with one of the wins over Michigan.)' Buckle Up! It's going to be B1G!

Just Ducky. Check out the Dennis Dodd article above. The new clock rules did shorten not all but many of the games. In this respect, the new rule worked as designed. More games fit closer into the media's short-allotted CFB broadcast windows. Unless CFB is willing to shorten half-time, the games will still not fit into the allotted broadcast time as do NFL games. Also, the NFL has a much better review process than does CFB. Another way to shorten regular season games would be to give each team a chance in OT starting from the 40-yard line, not the 25, and if the game is tied after 2 OTs it's tied. IMO, the proposed 2-minute warning is up for consideration so more advertising can be sold. I like that CFB does not completely mirror the NFL rule book.

College football offenses continue declining in key categories resulting in lowest-scoring season since 2009 - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Dennis Dodd takes one last statistical look at the 2023 college football season

I watched this horror movie for years. The monster kept coming back year after year with lots of young high school victims in hand before folks who must have watched the game in Columbus, and that's it, put a net filled with money over the monster's head and dragged him back to Swamp Land. Now they figure it out? Thank goodness.

Thanks for the post. The one team that will win is the Lawyers who play on both sides of the LOB, Line of Bench. I'm shocked that the ACC would prefer to litigate outside of Florida.

After the School Up North Did It, 'yes' it is Natty or bust in Columbus.

Correcting an error: The average number of plays in 2023 Dropped from 68.7 to 66.9. Double Duh!

I enjoyed pondering over Chip Kelly's move from HC at UCLA to OC at Ohio State. A range of opinions from, 'He's washed up!' to 'He is a perfect fit.' One of the fun things about kicking the pondering can down the road preseason is that the proof will be in the pudding. It's far too long before the 2024/25 season kicks off but it will kick off and Chip will either come through or he won't. DUH! B1G average point production per game in 2023: 1. Penn State - 36.2 / 2, Michigan - 35.9 / 3. Ohio State - 30.5 Ohio State has room for improvement on O. Pac-12 average point production per game in 2023: 1. OREGON - 44.2/ 2. USC - 41.8/ UW - 36. Before you go all Portland State and Liberty, Ohio State put up 63 points vs. W. Kentucky in 2023. However, playing with no O against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl did not help the Buckeyes cause on O. The Pac-12 in 2023 and for decades has been a more prolific scoring conference than the more line-of-scrimmage grind-it-out-on-the-ground B1G. (in addition to the preferred style of B1G play, some of this has to do with the B1G weather.) But this is somewhat of a stereotype. When Fields and Stroud were playing QB at Ohio State the Buckeyes passed more than it ran the football. On the other hand ... From the NCAA website, below is where the Pac-12 and B1G teams ranked nationally in 2023 in the number of plays run from scrimmage. 133 G5 teams and P5 teams results were ranked. The change to the timing rules? It did not have much effect. The average number of plays from scrimmage dropped from 66.9 a game in 2022 to 68.7 a game in 2023. For comparison purposes, USF finished No. 1 with an average of 82.1 plays a game. No. 133 Kentucky finished with an average of 56.1 plays a game. (One reason why the A+M fans were not thrilled about the Aggies potentially hiring Mark Stoops.) The difference of an average of .5 plays per game can mean the difference between Indiana ranked at 79 and Maryland ranked at 85. And, the number of plays a team runs does not directly correlate to success on the field. Washington finished ranked 89 with 66.5 plays a game; Michigan finished 124 with 62.7 plays a game. As I recall these two played for the title. Also, quick-strike offenses will run fewer plays. However, from the below data, it is clear that overall the B1G plays at a slower pace of play than the Pac-12. (Plays a game = PAG.) Pac -12 Rankings: 8. UCLA 76.6 PAG. No. 1 in the Pac-12. By comparison, Ohio State ranked 93, No. 8 in the B1G, running 66 PAG. Up from 62.7 PAG in 2022 with NFL Rookie-of-the-Year Stroud at QB. It isn't the same Chip as when he was at OREGON but even with a heavy dose of run plays at UCLA, Chip runs a lot of plays. I expect that we will see much of the same from Ohio State in 2024. Our OBD was ranked 78, running 68 plays a game and still putting up 44 PAG. How about them Bird Bombs! Last in the Pac-12 was Oregon State, ranked at 104. 60.7 PAG. Ranked 110. In the B1G, Michigan State was tied with Minnesota, running 64.5 PAG. Next to last in the B1G just ahead of Nebraska which ran 64 PAG. Further proof that J Smith will likely be a great fit in East Lansing. The total ranking for the Pac-12 is 614, a 51.16 ranking on average. 14.9 above the 66.5 median PAG ranking. B1G Rankings - Purdue is 2023 B1G No. 1 coming in at 31, with 73.2 PAG. Purdue did not go bowling. As noted above, the Cornhuskers were far from the cream of the PAG crop, ranking 117. This may be one reason that Nebraska plays in (and loses) so many close games. The total 2023 ranking for the 14-team B1G is 1178, an 84.14 ranking on average. 17.64 below the median, for a total difference of 32.54 lower than the Pac-12. The above is more art than science. But it is at least in my less-than-mathematically-inclined opinion, an example that the pace of play and the number of possessions are both likely to be less in the B1G than in the Pac-12. And Chip, who likely continues to believe that time-of-possession is a meaningless stat may have to refine his thinking. Especially when playing games in November in the Midwest. I do expect that in 2024, we will see Ohio State run more plays from scrimmage. Will Oregon come close to 44 points a game? It will be a B1G blast! Vandalize the Vandals!

Do you think there is any enmity between Michigan and Ohio State? Wow! FSU in instead of Bama I get. UM out because of the worst cheating scandal in CFB history? Over the line!

Ohio State home cookin' here but the concerns are B1G and not just tOSU concerns. Ohio State football: New TV deal continues CFP losing streak SCARLETANDGAME.COM The new TV deal for the CFP isn't great for the Ohio State football team's exposure, nor is it good for anyone else except ESPN and the SEC.

Sorry, that's ALABAMA tied at 76.

This is being considered but not yet agreed to by the SEC which is holding out for more money from ESPN for an extra conference game. I think the SEC is going to take a long look at the 2024 and 2025 PO fields before making a decision.

CFNs SEC win total projections. https://collegefootballnews.com/news/sec-college-football-regular-season-win-totals-pre-spring-2024

CFNs and Draft Kings B1G totals are more optimistic than FanDuel's, Ducks Wire, and USA Today. 14 of 18 B1G teams in this projection would be bowl-eligible. https://collegefootballnews.com/news/big-ten-college-football-regular-season-win-totals-2024-pre-spring

https://collegefootballnews.com/oregon/2024-oregon-football-schedule-3-things-to-know

https://collegefootballnews.com/ohio-state/2024-ohio-state-football-schedule-3-things-to-know Summary - Piece of cake and a whiff by the B1G.

https://collegefootballnews.com/news/big-ten-college-football-regular-season-win-totals-2024-pre-spring CFN's projected B1G win totals. Note: CFN does not accept wagers so ...