Jon Joseph

Charles, what a great, timely, and beautifully 'illustrated' take. Thank you. Here's another stat that I found to be of interest. In 2023, UW passed the ball 443 times and ran the ball 323 times for a total of 766 plays. Before and including the OREGON game, UW averaged 3.86 points per possession with a 55.3% success rate. Post the OREGON game, UW averaged 2.50 points per possession with a success rate of 44%. 1.36 fewer points per possession. This is where the rubber meets the road. And this is why post-Oregon, UW found itself in many one-possession games and finished 5-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS.) OREGON finished 10-1-1 ATS with a push in Seattle and a late WSU score to keep the Ducks from getting the cover vs. the Cougars. As to your excellent 'Havoc' take - OREGON finished with 42 sacks and finished #1 in the country with .5 sacks surrendered per game. UW finished with 19 sacks and tied for #3 in the country with .8 sacks surrendered per game. As noted, OREGON needs to pressure Penix. On 1st and 2nd downs without pressure, Penix is #1 in the country in completion percentage. OREGON comes into the game -9.5. SP+ has it OREGON by 8.4. FPI has it OREGON by 9.7. ............................................................................................................................................................ Assuming OREGON TCBs in LV, the most important champ game to keep an eye on is # 1. 12-0 Georgia -5.5 vs. # 8. 11-1 Alabama. These two are scheduled to play in September 2024. A rare occurrence as the teams have met only twice in the regular season in the last 15 years! The last game Georgia lost came 2 seasons ago. 6 point favorite UGA lost: Alabama 41/ Georgia 24. But that loss came against an Alabama team with a high-flying offense. SP+ has it Georgia by 7.2. FPI has it Georgia by .07. GO DUCKS! POUND THE PUPPIES! And GO you Hairy UGA Dawgs.

The Hits Just Keep On Coming! Welcome to the job Coach Brey and have a really nice day.

Ducks Win 38 - 27 UW TOs - 2 Sacks - 3 Passing Yards - 375 GO DUCKS! Pound the Puppies!

Wait a minute! Where is USC on the list? UCLA? UW?

Yet, Larry's Loser Network could not find $100K to provide on-site pre and postgame coverage. And there will be no studio lead-in or wrap-up. This is when the conference needs the PO pub. The B1G and SEC networks will be covering their champ games wall-to-wall. Larry, the gift that keeps on giving.

And Chip should be in the unemployment line. Chip mishandled Moore this season. Chip is now .500 in six seasons in Westwood. 7-5 overall and 4-5 in conference in 2023 with no game vs. UW and no game vs. OREGON is Terrible.

SEC is dropping divisions next season. Like the B1G, the top 2 SEC teams will play in the 2024 SEC champ game. And miracles do happen! Bama is playing Georgia in the regular season in September of 2024. Interesting that in this season's champ games Oregon and Bama in particular have a chance to make the PO, FSU the chance to fail, and perhaps Texas a way to find its way to the final Final 4. But with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, UW, and OREGON in a projected 2024 12-team playoff field, along with UGA, Texas, Bama, and Missouri, what purpose other than the all-mighty dollar, will conference champ games serve?

Pawalll and his buddies are in meltdown mode with Oregon being ranked 5th and ahead of Bama. This after Bama barely defeated a 6-6 Auburn team that was run off of its home field by New Mexico State. The win over 4-loss Tennessee in Tuscaloosa was huge but Oregon's destruction of 4-loss Utah in SLC was not. Right.

Capped by a Washington appellate judge telling the money-grubbing Beavs and Cougs - Not So Fast. Simple equity will not allow teams that bargained for one-twelfth of the pie to eat half. Why is Rob going out of his way to set up a game against a school suing Oregon? A school without a media deal comes July, 2024.

Dan L - Rising is on the Cam McCormack plan. By now, Cam should have his Doctorate.

I'd like to bring in Duke's Riley Leonard but I think he is headed to South Bend.

Steven, stick with DJU. Far easier to do. If DJU was interested in joining his little bro would you want him? Unlike Bo, DJU would not threaten the all time completion percentage mark.

Oregon vs. Washington preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis for Pac-12 Championship Game WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM Oregon vs. Washington is a fascinating rematch that could be a de-facto play-in game for the College Football Playoff.

I am waiting to weigh in on the subject until late Friday night or early Saturday morning. It's all in front of Bo and the team. Will both take advantage of the opportunity? Go Puddles! Pound the Puppies! BTW, who hands out the trophy? Kliavkoff, a Washington Circuit Judge, the Apple CEO, Larry Scott, or Robert Murdoch?

How about these games? 2024 - 5 conference champs / 7 at large/ adjusted for 2024 realignment 1. Georgia - SEC vs, 9. Bama SEC at 8. Texas SEC 4. Arizona - B12 vs, 12. Tulane - AAC at 2. UW B1G .................................................................................................................. 2. Michigan - B1G vs. 10. Missouri SEC at 7. Ohio State B1G 3. FSU - ACC vs. 11. Penn State B1G at 6. OREGON B1G 5 B1G teams - Show Puddles the $! You can expect 4 to 5 B1G teams in the playoffs every season. Ditto the SEC. And OREGON to be in the PO fold season after season. Why not THIS instead of a 4-team PO? Even with possible rematches. I do not see this devaluing the regular season. I see it bringing far more interest to the CFB regular season.

May I humbly suggest Vodka, or a 6-pack of righteous OREGON IPA, with a Mylanta chaser? On the Right Coast, we have 3 additional hours of Nervous Nellie angst. I was in CA. for TG, and watching the Civil War at 5:30 was far better than watching at 8:30. And I did not run out of elixir adult beverages. And also Bayer aspirin. GO DUCKS! UW Rolls Craps in LV! Bo wins on the Pass Line and wins the Stiff Arm Trophy. Troy gives his own stiff arm into the face of the Biletnikoff wankers. Flounder, Bluto, Schoenstein, D-Day, Otter, Otis Day and his Knights, and even Dean Wormer, go nuts and hopefully go to Pasadena on 1/1/24.

I completely disagree. We heard the same when the BCS doubled to 4 teams. No other college sport has a post-season where only 3% of the contenders compete in the post-season. The 12-team PO will give many more fan bases year-long rooting interest and render the PO Committee, except for seeding, a group that has never done more than count Ws and Ls, irrelevant. The eyeballs on the 2024 playoff will be huge. Players who currently sit out NY6 bowls will play in games that matter. Based on the Week 5 CT. rankings, OREGON, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, and Tulane fan bases would have their team in the playoff. Oklahoma fans will be ticked off but that's fine. That's part of the process. Today, with 4 teams, please tell me how you can separate 5. OREGON, 6. Ohio State, 7. Texas, and 8. Alabama and why is there any need to do so? NFL teams rematch in the playoffs. CBB teams rematch in the NCAA Tourney. Viewership and interest are not affected.

The game vs. Arizona for the conference title was the 1 rematch that the losing team reversed in the title game. And it was not just a reversal but a payback whipping put on a Wildcat and Rich Rod.

Thanks, Alex. Based on the updated FPI and SP+ rankings, the -9 or so, is spot on. FPI - 3. OREGON / 13. UW - OREGON would win by 10. SP+ - 4. OREGON/ 11. UW - OREGON would win by 7. ESPN Matchup Predictor. - The game is simulated 10,000 times. Oregon wins 75.8% of the time. UW, 24.2%. But DeBoer has not lost many games and very few big games in his career. UW has been winning ugly but it has been winning. Even if OREGON was a 20-point favorite in this game, I see OREGON showing up with bad intentions. Close for a half to 3 Qs before OREGON stretches its lead and wins by at least 2-scores. I am curious as to the number of Ducks vs UW fans in attendance. I hope we see a great showing from Ducks fans. GO PUDDLES! PUNCH THE PUPPIES!

The Gurus of Grapevine have uttered their 5th and penultimate 2023 college football playoff (PO) rankings. (Many of the statistics shown below are from an article on ESPN+, paywall, by David Hale. An article 'justifying' Alabama, Ohio State, and Texas fans not being happy with OREGON being the top-ranked 1-loss team.) Teams 1 through 4, 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3, Washington, and 4, Florida State win their respective conference champ game and are in the final Final 4. But who doesn't want to see Puddles punch the puppies in the mouth, and who wants to see something as mundane as all of the four 12-0 teams going 13-0? Meanwhile, folks in the southeast, including Paul Finebaum, and livestock in the southwest, including Bevo, are not too happy with Oregon being the highest-ranked 1-loss team. And based on almost every metric, these folks, along with more than a few angry folks from a school down south in Columbus, Ohio, have a legitimate gripe. Friend Puddles is on a High-5-Zipline due to the Eye Test. Puddles ranking to date is the triumph of human evaluation over machines. A tech-challenged guy like me simply loves this! Perhaps, an objective look at the 4 1-loss PO contenders. FPI - Top 35 Wins - Equivalent to Quad 1 Wins used by the CBB Committee. - Alabama - 5/ Texas - 5/ Ohio State - 3/ OREGON - 3. (Note, Wins over the Committee's top 25 as will be revealed on Sunday, 12/3, are often the result of how the Committee views similarly situated teams. For example, 21. Tennessee, 23. Clemson, and 25. K State all have 4 losses. Utah has 4 losses, 3 on the road at Committee-ranked 3. UW, 15. Arizona, and 20. Oregon State, as well as a win over a Florida team that Tennessee lost to. K State lost its final regular season game to unranked Iowa State. Utah defeated unranked Colorado. The Eye Test is art and not science.) Wins Over Bowl Eligible Teams - Alabama - 7, Texas - 7, Ohio State - 6, OREGON - 5. Wins Over Winning P5 Opponents - Alabama - 5, Texas - 4, Ohio State - 4, OREGON - 3. Strength of Record - Ohio State - 5, Texas - 6, Alabama - 7, OREGON - 8. - You can throw a blanket here. Strength of Schedule - Ohio State - 6, Texas - 13, Alabama - 31, OREGON - 62. - WOW! From 8 teams ranked to 4 teams ranked, the Pac-12 limped to the finish line. Game Control - Texas - 2, OREGON - 3, Ohio State - 4, Alabama - 9. - The OREGON wins have been impressive. Current ESPN FPI Ranking - 1. Ohio State, 3. OREGON, 6. Alabama, 7. Texas - The only possible explanation here is GIGO. Where is Michigan? See below. Current SP+ Ranking - [1. Michigan, 2. Georgia] 3. Ohio State, 4. OREGON, 7. Texas, 8. Alabama. - ESPN Bill Connolly's SP+ would have OREGON, Georgia. and 2 B1G teams in the Final 4. There is justification for fans of Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama not being happy with OREGON being ranked #5. But again, this is art, not science. When we had a heavy dose of science back in 2001, the computers hosed OREGON out of a BCS champ game against Miami played in the Rose Bowl. Going to a 12-team PO in 2024 will most likely ensure that no deserving team is left out. But run the field for 2024 using the latest Committee rankings and Oklahoma Sooners fans would not be happy. "Bowls, Polls, and Tattered Souls." GO DUCKS! PUNCH THE PUPPIES!

Oregon defeats UW and the Ducks are in. Unless the Bama vs. UGA game is close and the Committee favors 1-loss UGA and its chance for 3 in a row. I do not see this happening with Oregon coming in at 5 tonight. 1. UGA 2. Michigan 3. Oregon 4. FSU. FSU has a 70% chance to defeat Louisville even with its starting QB on the bench. A 13-0 P5 team and ACC conference champion will not miss the playoff but will be blown out by UGA in the Sugar Bowl.

Oregon defeats UW and FSU defeats Louisville and UGA and Michigan hold serve I think Oregon will move to 3 and play 2 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. If UGA wins and Oregon wins the Ducks IMO will move to 3. If I fostered confusion before I did not mean to do so. BTW, I think that the above will happen, and like in the 1st PO in 2024 Oregon will play in the Rose Bowl.

Could not have been any better for the Ducks. The Eye Test carries on. Now, the Ducks play the #3 team, UW, in Vegas on Friday night. OREGON 5 and Ohio State 6. Perfect for the Ducks, perfect. Hats off to the Committee for giving Puddles the eye test love. Defeat #3 UW Friday night and Oregon is in the final Final 4. With a good chance even should FSU win, of moving up to 3 for a playoff Rose Bowl 1st PO season Rose Bowl redux. UW at 3 and Oregon at 5 is love for the Pac-12 that we have rarely seen. I am now leaning toward Oregon even if Bama defeats UGA getting into the final Final Final 4. The only team to move up with a champ game win is Bama. OREGON defeats UW and it matters not what Texas does, Good for the Ducks but bad for the Horns that the B12 is ranked P5 number 5. I still believe that after these rankings and not to go all hubris, that we will see Oregon vs Michigan in a final traditional Rose Bowl game. Texas defeating OK St. is no big deal, ditto FSU beating 2-loss Louisville. I think that FSU will be cannon fodder for UGA in the Sugar Bowl. GO Puddles and Pound the Puppies.

Based on the resume, Ohio State should be ranked ahead of Oregon but then again based on the resume and all the metrics, Texas and Bama should have been ranked ahead of Oregon. Why would the Committee jump Texas or Bama above Oregon now? With the beatdown of Oregon State, this would be very hard to justify. Ohio State at 5 and Oregon at 6 is meaningless if Oregon defeats UW.

Good call, but I do not see the Committee moving Texas, a beat down of a team that Oregon beat on the road when the TT roster was at full strength, or Bama, a very fortunate winner at 6-6 Auburn, above Oregon. If Ohio State is 5 and Oregon 6 it really doesn't matter if Oregon defeats UW. Both Bama's SOS, SOR, and Game Control rankings are better than Oregon's and have been better than Oregon's but this has not mattered to the Committee. Yes, Texas has that win over Bama but the B12 is the lowest ranked P5 conference and fortunately, Texas is playing 3-loss OK St. and not 2-loss brand name Oklahoma in the B12 champ game. I see Oregon remaining as the highest-ranked 1-loss team with the opportunity to defeat likely #3 UW on Friday night. Defeat UW and win the Pac-12 and the only concern I will have is if Bama upsets Georgia on Saturday. It looks like TE Bowers, and WRs McConkey and Thomas will all play for UGA. UGA's run game has been very good and Bama's run defense has not been so good. Bama's big loss to Texas came at home as did its 3 best wins, Ole Miss, LSU, and Tennessee. I do not see Bama defeating UGA in Atlanta. It would also help if Louisville could defeat FSU. FSU's offense did not look good last Saturday behind its backup QB. GO DUCKS! Paste the puppies.