Jon Joseph

A measured, reasonable take on potential realignment. Who Knew? The author is one of the few speculators at large who should not have the Name Yahoo attached to their work. It will be rather ironic if AZ, ASU, and Utah join the B12 for a max of $11M a year more than the proposed Pac deal would provide, and that such moves would make the addition of Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and UW palatable to B1G presidents. Give these 4 the opportunity to join a far more successful and long-term viable conference. A conference that Oregon is more than capable of competing in. Once 1 of the Power 2 goes to 20 teams, the SEC will follow. This happens and IMO, the playoff come 2026 will go to 16 teams and without the automatic inclusion of conference champions in the field. But you know what? Going to a Power 2, with the SEC presumably picking off ACC teams, will not prevent linear broadcasting from going the way of streaming. As a matter of fact, to make the addition of the 4 identified schools financially viable a streaming company other than Peacock will likely have to be involved unless NBC/Peacock is willing to come with more money for streaming more B1G inventory.

Cart, I demur. The advantage isn't clear? It's certainly clear to the folks at Disney. And the #1 company rumored to be in the mix to buy all of or a significant portion of ESPN stock is Apple. Disney has made it absolutely clear that it wants to jettison ESPN and that if it continues to own ESPN, ESPN sports broadcasts are moving to streaming sooner rather than later. There is no way IMO that the SEC deal with ESPN that commences in 2024 and runs for 10 years will not have a significant number of events streamed. Peacock is streaming 8 B1G games this season. I expect this number will along with Fox and CBS joining the streaming parade, jump to at least 50% of the broadcasts of B1G inventory before the B1G deal ends 7 years from 2024. I hope that Oregon will not be silly enough to enter into any long-term deal, at least not without an early out with the payment of a marginal exit fee if that. Even a 5-year new deal for the Pac will expire before the ACC, B12, B1G, and SEC deals. So long as Oregon is not locked into a long-term deal what's the downside for Oregon? Going to the B12 for an extra $11M a year even if only the new deal floor of $20M is achieved, is not a viable, long-term option. And I continue to hold out hope that the new Pac deal with have a linear agreement to bridge the gap before streaming becomes the rule and not the exception. I believe that with the changes coming in technology and the delivery of technology, the proposed deal with Apple, as we understand it, will give the Pac-Whatever, the opportunity to close the gap on the ACC, sans its network deal and the B12. Only BYU among the 5 schools added to the B12 to date draws close to 1M viewers on average for football games. TCU is just behind Oregon drawing slightly over 2M viewers on average for football How do you think the TCU powers-that-be feel about giving the newbies an equal share of the proceeds? Adding the schools it has added to date does not assure the B12's survival, far from it. I am 76 years old and I have seen this movie before. New tech being dissed by people vested in the old way of doing things. You could be absolutely correct in your concern but I believe streaming will eliminate or come close to eliminating, linear broadcasts by 2023.

The Athletic's, Stewart Mandel, was one of the few national media pundits to attend Pac-12 Media Day. Going back to his Northwestern undergraduate days he has a soft spot for the Pacific Conference and what the Rose Bowl once meant to the B1G and the Pac. His Mailbag today was full of Pac questions, many not surprisingly dealing with the Pac including a critique of Dan Lanning's new contract which Stewart dismissed while noting that the question came from a reader in Seattle. The Athletic site has an inviolate, at least for someone with my rudimentary tech levels, paywall. So forgive the length of this post but I think Stewart's response as to whether a merger of the ACC/Pac and creating a Coast-to-Coast conference would make sense in today's conference realignment game of musical shares. "As streaming services go. Apple+ seems to have a pretty high hit rate. 'Ted Lasso,' 'Severance,' The Morning Show,' and 'Shrinking' (oh, the irony!), all rank among my favorite shows of the past three years. If that's where the Pac-12 lands, it will be in pretty good company. But as of this writing (8/2/23), there was still a decent chance that the (pac-12) logo lands at the bottom of the Pacific." As to the idea of a Coast-to-Coast conference. "Yep, you may be on to something. Although a conference that expands from the Pacific Northwest to South Florida makes no sense geographically, it may be the best option either side has going for it. Note that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips (once a member of the ill-fated Alliance) said at conference media days they've spent considerable time on expansion to see if there is anything that fits. Also, note that there are no value-added expansion candidates in the eastern half of the country. A Memphis or USF would not move the needle. You know who would? Oregon and Washington. These two have to be exploring all possible avenues right now. Like Florida State, Clemson, and Miami, both programs aspire to win national championships but don't have an obvious path to make the money SEC and B1G contenders do. The Big Ten seems less interested in future westward expansion than it did last fall, and joining the B12 would just be further resigning Oregon and Washington to a distant third. Although ESPN is under no obligation to make the ACC richer if it adds more members, the West Coast schools could help boost one particular revenue stream: The ACC Network. Upgrading from nominal out-of-market subscriber fees to considerable in-market fees like the Bay Area (No. 10 in Nielson market size), Seattle (No. 12), and Portland (No. 22) could generate significantly more revenue. Not enough to match the Big Ten/SEC, but enough to close the gap in a meaningful way. I don't think a full merger of 23 (as of this writing) teams is realistic., but logistically the ACC couldn't just add two West Coast teams. I'm guessing the presidents of Duke, Virginia and North Carolina would love the idea of hobnobbing with Cal and Stanford. Maybe Arizona and ASU would be interested, too, if for no other reason than all that ESPN exposure. The logistics would be ridiculous, but we're long past the point of geographic sensibilities in realignment. It's all about moola, and right now everyone is just trying to find any possible path to making more of it." Far from a definitive answer but before the $ and logistics are sorted out how there can be a definitive answer?

I agree with your take David with one caveat. Oregon has to be the LEADER in however the Pac Conference shakes out. This means not settling for the same share, especially if the share is goosed by the # of subscribers and the number of viewers who watch given sporting events, as do 'partners' that invest far less in CFB and CBB and draw far fewer eyeballs. In unison from the Oregon Board of Trustees to the Oregon President and on-down Oregon sports has to be managed like a business and not a lemonade stand managed by clueless academicians who care more about the number of Noble Prize winners on campus, who undergraduates have no contact with, than they do about athletic success and the money that follows such success. Oregon cannot simply rubber-stamp senseless business decisions and non-decisions authored by an unqualified board of directors who oversee a commissioner with no prior college administrative experience. George Kliavkoff is being paid $3,5M a year largely because of his business acumen and experience in doing broadcast agreements for MGM Sports. But of course, GK needed to hire a group of consultants, led by a gentleman by the name of Perlman, to help with media negotiations. My guess is that Mr. Perlman, et al, are not doing this pro bono. So, exactly what is the $3.5M return on investment? In summary, Oregon has to realize that it is The Big Duck in a smaller Pac-Whatever pond, that without Oregon the Beavers are building dams in the Mountain West, and that Oregon will not submit to lesser 'partners' unwilling and/or unable to compete at championship levels in the Moneyball sports.

Understand your POV. Early telephones required shared lines and a switchboard. As the delivery system improved millions more people purchased and installed telephones. Streaming will be made more easy to access and to switch in and out of. ESPN, the leader in college sports broadcasting, and its overseer Disney know that they have to move to streaming as soon as the kinks are worked out. Today's delivery systems are outmoded and bloated with excess administrative costs. I will be shocked if the number of folks who sign on to Apple to watch football, basketball, and non-revenue sports does not exceed the 13M subscribers to the Pac-12 Network. I will also be shocked if Fox does not move post-haste to add a streaming service like NBC's Peacock. I wager that in 5 years, before the end of the new B1G media deal that not less than half of the B1G's football games will be streamed. Again, I more than respect your POV but no one can shovel sand against the tide and expect the tide to stay out.

Or, the chance to be a leader in where sports broadcasting is headed and a partner with one of the world's richest, most successful companies with business relationships far greater than the 13M who subscribe to the Pac-12 Network. I'm not the least surprised with the structure of a base dollar amount and the chance to earn additional money via the # of subscriptions. This will be the format for the coming world of new media. I believe many of us are correct in regard to the staying power of the Oregon brand. This being the case, IMO providing an equal share to all conference members will not be in line with the Oregon brand's market power. This is where I hope the powers-that-be at Oregon make sure that if, as we expect, Oregon is far more watched than other Pac teams, Oregon will receive a bigger slice of the revenue pie. No more drafting on the Oregon brand. No more agreeing to equal shares for teams that do not make equal investments in the Moneyball sports. Even with a $20M base why would CU and other teams leave for $11.7M over this base when boosters can easily make the difference up and a team's success in CFB and men's CBB will have Pac teams on an equal footing with B12 and ACC teams without the rigors of travel on the athletes. I am not a glass-half-full kind of guy and the conference approach to the new media deal negotiations has left much to be desired but this deal does give Oregon a chance to catch a wave into the new media broadcast world. Take a bite out of Apple now and less than a decade from now the conference's media deal could be envied by teams stuck in a world of linear-only content. Based on the old world, the deal is problematic. Based on the New World which ESPN will be joining sooner rather than a later an opportunity awaits.

The meeting in Arizona includes Arizona, ASU., and Northern Arizona. Probably not the locale and setting for U of A to make a decision on the Pac or B12?

Gold: Finally, Pac-12 football season is almost upon us SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM Mercifully for Pac-12 brass, the calendar flipping to August means the season is almost here. And that's a good thing, as the league...

Media.com - Pac- 9 and B13, ranking of average viewer numbers watching football in 2022. Pac - 9./ OREGON, 33. Utah, 34. UW, 41. WA St, 45. Cal, 47. Stanford, 57. OR St, 61, Arizona, 70. ASU B13 - / 13. TCU, 24. Oklahoma St, 29. Baylor, 30. Kansas St, 38. BYU, 42. Iowa St, 51. W. Virginia, 52. Kansas, 54. Texas Tech, 55. Cincinnati, 61. UCF, 66. Colorado, 78. Houston Which inventory would you rather be marketing? Which of the Pac-9/B13, went to the market with a realistic value of its worth? Which went to the market before the media market suffered a correction in the wrong direction? If you could destroy a media dollar competitor by taking in the numbers 13., 24., 29., 30., 52. and 54. ranked teams, adding millions of new viewers to your network and thus achieving far better national distribution, would you not have done so? Would effete academic concerns have prevented you from doing so? Two decades of terrible leadership = $20M a team, although I remain more optimistic in regards to the bottom line number, why should any of us be surprised? You reap what you sow and do not sow. Oregon needs to find better partners ASAP and not be dragged down by partners with no business sense.

Not sure about the seating differential but I don't see Oregon State at San Jose State on the list.

Can't Catch Him! I just finished watching a replay of the 2012 Rose Bowl (10+ years ago, really?) and watching DAT go 91 yards for a TD versus Wisconsin. Man, were those Ducks fun to watch and I am so happy to see DL bring back the brand. Let's Play Ball!

Laughing, once again, at the GIF and not the thought.

The ACC has 15 member schools including Notre Dame which is of course independent in football and ND's hockey team plays in the B1G. (ND did win the NCAA lacrosse title this season.) 8 schools need to depart the ACC for it to dissolve without members having to pay an exit fee. Maybe Time is a flat circle and tomorrow we will be back to the future with a Pac-8 conference. If so, in regard to the Pac and the ACC, this coast-to-coast merger would be viable and move the ACC/Pac into 3rd place in what would be a Power 4 money race. Pac-8 plus Atlantic 8 could look like this - Clemson, DUKE, GEORGIA TECH, FSU, NC St, MIAMI, UNC, PITT (All caps = AAU member schools.) Pitt and Georgia Tech are the westernmost members of the ACC. Atlanta is west of Detroit. Pitt plants a flag in B1G territory. To help with harmony and CBB, add Louisville, UVA, VA Tech, and Wake Forest to the East Division. No need to add travel to Boston and Syracuse. To pick up the So Cal market add SDSU and add SMU, Rice, and Tulane to alleviate, somewhat, travel demands. SMU, Rice, with a 47,000-seat football stadium that can be expanded to 55,000, and Tulane, are all academic fits. Play CFB and men's and women's CBB coast-to-coast. Focus on intra-division play for the other sports. This would limit travel to the Eastern time zone. Western-most Tulane is in the Central time zone. One time zone away for Utah and 2 for the other Pac-8 members. But it's easy for me to assemble and link-up college teams on the JJ railroad. I have no idea whatsoever if the above would be acceptable to the Pac and ACC powers that be and do not believe my idea even warrants rumor status. But I most definitely do not see a merger of this nature as being injurious to the long-term future of Oregon sports. 16 to 24 teams bargaining collectively would have market power; especially, with the elimination of a Power 5 conference. Que sera, sera.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-insider-explains-why-big-12-likely-wont-add-oregon-or-washington

Billy Joe Herbert?

And how badly Fox wants to screw over ESPN.

Sorry for the dupe post. This rumor belongs in Fantasy Land but what in the heck do I know? I do not see B1G Prez taking in non-AAU member schools Clemson and FSU when the B1G doesn't need the money and already extends coast-to-coast. Why would Ohio State, Michigan, etc., want to recruit against Clemson and FSU? Who is going to come up with $60M plus for each school in alimony payments? The only reason this has a heartbeat IMO would be Fox Network's determination to hose over ESPN.

THIS is an example of why I am more than ready for some football. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-expansion-rumors-clemson-florida-state-oregon-washington Neither Clemson nor FSU is an AAU member school. This matters to B1G Prez. And about that $60M + buy out? Details. Now, based on my recent track record, watch this happen.

Records will be broken in the deepest Pac-12 conference in years. Will Bo Nix eclipse one or more of Marcus Mariota's records? And will Troy Franklin break the Oregon season TD record with more than 12 TDs? Not long now before our winter of discontent turns into glorious college football. It will be so nice to have results on the field to ponder instead of dealing with a ream of rumors. Gold: 9 potential Pac-12 conference records and team records that could fall in 2023 SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM Records are made to be broken, and with some superstars -- even a record-breaking kicker! -- returning, a handful of the Pac-12's...

Great recap. How objective was Larry with his network CEO salary on the line when it came to valuing the ESPN offer? I'll wager donuts to dollars that Larry did not recuse himself from the discussions and the board of directors allowed this to happen when the network never once reached its lowest projected revenue distributions. BTW, I wonder who hired the consultants that came up with glorified, absurd projections? But I don't have to ponder this too long to determine the usual suspect. Harvard, Stanford, and every business school in the nation should present a case study of what happens when totally unqualified people serve on a board of directors. People who put their 'shareholders' behind effete academic requirements. The opposite case study is to look at the SEC and see what a qualified incented group of directors under the purview of qualified administrators can do to elevate a conference that before the BCS was on the same footing as the Pac-10/12. The B1G is big only because of the location of its member institutions and because of having legions of Alumni/Alumnae. Too B1G to fail. For the Pac Conference, it has been two decades plus of see-foot, shoot. If the NIKE board and not an unqualified group of academicians had been calling the shots things would have been far different.

Wrathis, I agree with your thoughts and strongly agree with Charles that Oregon will land on its webbed feet. With the B1G playing 9 conference games and USC playing Notre Dame, I don't see Troy in a hurry to schedule another P5 team OOC; however, having said this, SC does play both LSU and ND in 2024. I do think we will see SC and UCLA play Cal or Stanford in a given year. If I were a UCLA representative I'd go to the Board of Regents with an offer to play Cal every year as soon as the schedule allows with Cal getting a 2-for-1 deal with two games played in Berkeley every 3 years. This, instead of having to pay a Cal tax. As to CU, like Rhett Butler, I frankly don't give a damn. I do hope Oregon takes the opportunity this season to stick it to Prime and to Lincoln Riley. One thing for certain, I pray that the powers-that-be in Eugene will not schedule any one-off games versus the LA schools. Do nothing to alleviate the travel headaches these 2 illegitimate offspring will encounter. My Swami deductive powers; well, I've lost my mojo. But I continue to be sunny side up when it comes to Ducks sports.

Thank you once again, Coach, for the excellent tutorial.

Does the merit of an Oregon or Stanford degree rest one whit on the success of after-school sports? I played in the college sports little league world of D3. None of us were on scholarship but we had a lot of fun playing ball and hockey out of the national spotlight as did those in the drama club, debating club, science club, outdoors club, etc. Oregon will end up in the conference where it is supposed to end up. And Oregon sports will be successful no matter the arena in which sports are contested. All speculation as to the landing place will not matter one iota as to where Puddles makes its nest. All of this pondering is interesting but will not dictate or influence where Oregon calls its conference home. The fact that money will dictate the decision makes the Dinosaur in me (spot on Charles) somewhat sad. But seeing the concepts of loyalty, ethics, tradition, and camaraderie disappearing in a cesspool of dollars makes me even more sad. What will happen will happen and the University of Oregon and its sports teams will be just fine.

https://collegefootballnews.com/cfn/top-10-big-12-and-pac-12-expansion-candidates

How about a money-over-hubris shift?