Jon Joseph

Um, Empty Diamond, ah Coach, what was that 3rd thing?

That would be one heck of an upset. Troy is - 30.5. A much bigger spread than Troy had vs. Achilles and the Greeks. I have a modest bet down on the game going over 66 points (-110.) But in the words of Kurt Vonnegut, 'You never know.' I recall Stanford once upon a time covering a bigger spread than this in the Coliseum. 'What's your deal?'

LOL! ESPN Week Zero Game of the Week - New Mexico State vs. UMass. And the #6 team in the country is playing on the Pac-12 Network. How can anyone with a scintilla of business sense complain about USC and UCLA, Oregon and UW, for getting the heck out of here? It's not easy to repeat as a Heisman winner when no one can watch your games.

Yet, no team has won 3 in a row since Minnesota in the 1930s and other schools have claims to the 3 titles won by the Gophers. There are many quality scholarship athletes in the SEC. UGA struggled last season against Kent State (!) and Mizzou. Tough to bring your A-game every week when you are a young man and everyone is telling you that all you have to do is roll the ball out on the field to win the game. I think Beck will be very good but he does not have Bennett's wheels. Bennett's ability to run the ball was the difference, along with a key OH ST injury, to UGA's close semifinal win over Ohio State. And does Mike Bobo have the moxie to successfully replace Todd Monken at OC? I also believe that LSU will be much improved this season and will most likely, give UGA a better battle in the SEC champ game.

How will average B1G QBs do in the SEC? Mertz at UF, Milton at TN, and Thorne at Auburn. B1G question coming into 2023. Beck at UGA is homegrown. This is becoming the exception and not the rule in CFB. In the Pac12, OREGON, UW, OR St, WA St, Cal, Utah, CU, AZ, USC, and UCLA all have transfers starting at QB in 2023. In addition to the 3 B1G to SEC starters mentioned above, the SEC has transfers starting in 2023 at So Car, KY, Mizzou, Ole Miss, and LSU. With Bama TBD.

And no one should have paid the B1G refs who were on the field and in the review booth for this game.

Brilliant! On the way out the door breach a contract and pay an 'exit fee' instead of leaving without paying the same.

Absolutely. As always, the proof will be in the pudding.

The 2023 season kicks off Saturday on Week Zero. The premier game is Notre Dame versus Navy in Dublin. Sorry Leprechauns, but I am rooting for the Midshipman to sink the Irish. Here's yet another reason to be happy about Puddles going B1G. The 'feature game' on ESPN brings us New Mexico State versus UMass. Meanwhile, AP Poll #6 USC will be playing San Jose State on Larry's Loser Network. The Pac-12 strikes again! The Athletic's (paywall) Stewart Mandel in today's Mailbag pondered what scheduling will look like in the 18-team B1G in 2024 and IMO, came up with an excellent flex scheduling idea. Q. 'At 18 teams, how is the B1G going to avoid the possibility of three 9-0 teams?' Mandel - 'How about three six-team division champs and one wild card? Everyone plays five inter-division games and three cross-division games. The ninth [game] is flex scheduled, with cross-division matchups for 14 of the 18 plus two semifinal matchups, culminating in the league title game.' This would make travel planning more difficult but I have to believe that the networks would love this model that would conclude with three 'playoff' games. Stewart provided no more detail but if this was to be the format I believe the divisions would look like the following. (Team 2023 AP Poll preseason Top 25 rankings are shown as applicable.) West - Oregon - 15, Minnesota (closer than Iowa to Seattle by a couple of hundred miles,) Nebraska, UCLA, USC - 6, UW - 10. Central - Illinois, Iowa - 25, Michigan - 2, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin - 19. East - Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State - 3, Penn State - 7, Purdue, Rutgers [Michigan vs. Ohio State would be a protected cross-division game.) The above format would consist of three fairly balanced divisions. The rub, of course, would be the teams you draw cross-division. For example, this season Minnesota plays #2 Michigan in Minneapolis and #3 Ohio State in Columbus. Brutal! But before any of this happens I am excited to watch the Ducks outperform the pollsters in 2023.

Dilly made a difference at Auburn and also at Oregon. If Nix had stayed with the Tigers he would have been part of the Harsin demise. At the QB position in particular your OC and the system you play in can make a world of difference. I think one of the more interesting things to watch in 2023 will be how B1G castoffs Joe Milton at TN, Payton Thorne at Auburn, and Grahm Mertz at Florida play in the SEC. We've already seen how escaping Herm helped out Daniels at LSU. Not only was Dyer down but Nick A. also shut $cam down.

Hayward, if Joey had his way Justin Wilcox would be the Ducks coach and recruiting would be somewhere in the lower 30s or upper 40s. And would a guy like Nix be returning at QB? I doubt it. Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Michael Penix, Jr., and Cam Rising all transferred in. Christian Gonzalez is emblematic of how successfully Dan can pluck the portal. Certainly, Matayo will be a baller at Oregon. But at the start of the season at the very least I expect that Jordan Burch will have more of an impact. NFL free agents do not always work out but I'd much rather go with a guy I have film on playing against college competition than a rookie coming out of high school. It's a new day and age in CFB. Plucking the portal properly is as important in many respects as the recruiting rankings.

Even with Fox driving the bus, the B1G is not going to go after non-AAU member schools. This is one way in which the B1G distinguishes the conference from the SEC. In 2024, Nebraska will be the only B1G school out of 18 members not to be an AAU member university. Nebraska was an AAU member at the time it joined the B1G; otherwise, it would not have gotten the invite. B1G presidents would much prefer to add AAU member schools Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, and UVA over Clemson and FSU. Unlike the Pac-12, the B1G can afford to be an Elite Club.

Hayward, I already have riffed enough on your excellent comment. But I do want to note the incredible story about where Oregon is today. And where is it today? Oregon is sitting in the CFB cat-bird (no offense Puddles) seat. No matter how CFB sorts itself out, Oregon will not be left behind. (Unless it decides the game is no longer worth the candle.) Amazing for a program that for years produced some incredibly talented players like Norm Van Brocklin, Dan Fouts, Ahmad Rashad, and a personal favorite, Patriots tight end Russ Francis, and many others I did not mention but did not have a great deal of success on the football field. The marketing of Oregon has made the Oregon brand one of the elite brands in college football. A smaller-sized school in a smaller-sized city in the Northwest is now known both nationally and internationally. Playing frequently in and winning Rose Bowl games and playing for a BCS and a Playoff championship is something very few schools have accomplished. With the help of NIKE, Phil Knight, Bob Sasser, and an administration that supported the development of athletics across the board, Oregon football has ascended to much-watch TV and plays in a stadium that is acknowledged as a place with SEC-like fan support. Other smaller schools have had a moment in the sun, VA Tech, W. Virginia, and recently TCU, for example, but Oregon is the smaller school to have continued success, although occasionally interrupted success. One heck of a story and a whole lot to look forward to.

Notre Dame without the ACC to play other sports in is in a pickle. Having all of its teams other than football and ice hockey that plays in the B1G, having a home in the ACC, along with the ACC football scheduling agreement, enables ND to stay at least quasi-independent in football. As to equal revenue splits, I see this going away as you so suggest as conferences continue to consolidate and linear broadcasting moves to streaming. With streaming, the size of media markets will be meaningless, as is kind of the case today. Cal and Stanford are both in a major media market but this did not entice Fox, CBS, and NBC to fund their entry into the B1G. Schools will be paid based on the number of people who pay for streaming subscriptions and watch given teams play. This along with being rewarded for playing in and advancing in the football and CBB playoffs. I expect that the coming CFB players union will negotiate for a piece of the media pie. And a players union will allow for bargained agreement on transfers, among other things. I believe a high school draft will follow suit which will eliminate NIL being used as a recruiting inducement. And eliminating the huge recruiting piece of being a coach will bring down college football coaches salaries. I don't know if it's a brave new world but it is a new world and college football being entirely monetized will lead to NFL Lite and possibly CBB Lite. FSU already has an investment bank considering whether to buy FSU athletics programs. This I believe will be the norm with schools licensing at least football and CBB to 3rd parties for an agreed-upon payment and with an indemnity against liability associated with football in particular. Will football and men's basketball athletes be students in any sense of the word? If so, perhaps there will be a football and basketball major course of study. I believe that additional conference consolidation will occur in the next 6 years or fewer.

Thanks, PA. To me. it's about the result and not the predicate. Speculative autopsies matter not. Puddles is partially in the money and will be totally in the money come 2031. Pay millions for the SFO market when Cal and Stanford play in front of empty stadiums? Pay millions for the Corvallis and Pullman markets? Headliners play at Caesar's Palace and others are Lounge acts.

With athletes deemed to be employees, teams like Northwestern, Vandy, etc. may voluntarily withdraw instead of dealing with the consequences such as negotiating with a players union. Agreement with a players union is the only way, IMO, that transfers can be controlled. I do not see any way that NIL will be restricted. There is a salary cap and restraints on rookie contracts in the NFL but no restraints on NIL. I think it is likely when players become employees that we will see a high school draft which would eliminate NIL bidding for recruits. I do believe a school like Vandy will get a piece of the football pie and remain in its existing conference for all other sports other than football and perhaps men's basketball. Title 9 could also play a major role in how ever this all sorts out. But who knows how this will all come down and who has been tough to locate in the current conference consolidation.

The graffiti folks in South Central would make short work of this.

Sir Notalot, below is Saturday Out West's projection of the USC game-by-game record in 2023. I like the prediction of Tommy Trojan leaving Eugene with the L and the tip of the hat to the Autzen SEC-like atmosphere. Loss at Notre Dame? I don't see it. I believe QB Sam Hartman was the all-time system QB playing in the unique slow-mesh option O at Wake Forest. Pitt's Pat Narduzzi got after him in 2022 and brought the house on D. The result was 6 picks. And Notre Dame has no WR that can stretch the field. After last season's win over Notre Dame, Riley, and Caleb Williams will come into South Bend with a lot of confidence. In this game that will be watched nationwide, I expect Riley to showcase Williams. IMO, there is no way that ND can win a track meet vs USC. Sorry, but a see a loss against Utah or UW far more likely than a loss at Arizona. Unless the AZ D has improved significantly, I do not see the AZ D holding down Williams. The biggest predicted win on SC's schedule? How about being idle in Week 13, the week before the conference champ game? Typical of the conference that Puddles is flying away from to give another escapee a huge scheduling benefit. I think that Oregon will match up with SC in the champ game in Las Vegas. Oregon will be coming off what perhaps will be the last Civil War game against an extremely motivated opponent. This will be a most physical football game. USC will be watching, healing, and game-planning against Oregon and every other team in championship contention. Why not give an NFL playoff wild card contender the week off before the 1st round of the playoffs while all other contenders play? No one in Pac-12 HQ, Merton Hanks, and others get this? I hope Rob Mullens didn't roll over for this as well as UCLA and SC leaving with the benefit of the Cali scheduling agreement but I very much doubt it. SC receives the benefit, because of conference cluelessness, of playing San Jose State in Week 0, a game that will be played next Saturday. Former AD Bohn may have been many things but this is super smart, playoff-designed, scheduling.

Bo does Dallas! Or, something like that.

Great take, David. Thank you. The ACC's crummy media numbers are goosed by distribution from the ACC Network. With the media distributions, ACC schools received @$40M from ESPN in 2022. More than the B12 and Pac-12 distributed. But far behind the B1G and the SEC. Larry Scott was foolish to enter into a 12-year media deal. A deal that runs through 2036 is beyond foolish. The ACC as currently structured is gone within 5 years. All it takes is 4 ACC schools besides the ones that black-balled Cal and Stanford, Clemson, FSU, UNC, and NC State, to crater the conference and allow teams to depart without the payment of any exit fee let alone $120M. And ESPN will have to on the one hand come up with more money but will on the other hand, lose the cost of the ACC deal and the cost of operating the ACC Network. As David notes, the prize schools money-wise are Clemson and FSU. Clemson was No. 10 in average number of football viewers in 2022, with 3M viewers. FSU finished No. 15, with 2.030M viewers. After this, you drop to No. 43 NC State, with 881K viewers, No. 46 UNC with 849K viewers. Then 48, Syracuse. 49, Georgia Tech. 56. Pitt. 59. Miami. 60. Wake Forest. By comparison, Washington State finished 41. with 907K viewers. Notwithstanding the objections of South Carolina and Florida, as was the case with Texas and A+M, Clemson and FSU make perfect sense for the SEC. These two are not AAU member schools so I believe both are off the board for the B1G. I think the most likely candidates nationally for the B1G are Notre Dame, which could be left with no ACC football scheduling agreement and nowhere for its other teams to play, and AAU member schools Stanford, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, and UVA. I can see the SEC having an interest beyond Clemson and FSU in Louisville and NC State. Maybe No. 13 most-watched TCU and No. 24. most-watched Oklahoma State (only 1 spot behind Oklahoma.) I think Miami gets left behind. A smaller Private school drafting off of its glory days, No. 60 in viewership as noted above, and without an on-campus football field. Regardless, size goes to size in big business. College sports have been fully capitalized and there is nothing collegial involved when public media companies 'own' the Power 2 conferences. The NLRB, various state legislatures, and numerous plaintiffs are all after college sports, at least football, and men's basketball players, to be deemed to be employees. When, and it's a question of when and not if this happens, the final consolidation will see a Power 2, AFL - NFL consolidation. Going to Congress for relief is a fool's errand. This is the natural progression flowing from the NCAA losing its broadcast monopoly in 1984 and the idea that college football needed the BCS to determine its One True Champion. You take the money in any endeavor and you pay the price. And once money rules the day, the pursuit of more money is inexorable. The price here among other things is the loss of tradition, the destruction of loyalty, every school and player looking out for themself and themselves, and young men no longer playing football in the daylight. Thanks again, David. Do I like all of 'this?' Heck no! However, and I would be a hypocrite to think otherwise, I am extremely happy that Oregon caught the last plane out and is headed to B1G country.

I think you can see Lubbock from here.

Kirk, good take. But next year Michigan will also be breaking in a new QB. Thus be it ever in college ball.

Well we made it to the airport Caught the last plane out. As we taxied down the runway I could hear those Beavers shout, "Don't come back here Puddles!" But if I ever do I'll bring B1G money And maybe a Natty or two.

As long as Puddles found a seat in the last lifeboat, I do not care which Northwest school decided to first get off the Titanic. As Charles has noted, Puddles is moving up B1G. Below is an example. The B1G placed the most players on the preseason All-American team. AP Preseason All-America: B1G leads all conferences in first-team selections SATURDAYTRADITION.COM AP Preseason All-America: The B1G led all league's with a dominant first-team showing.

Interesting that Pac-12 guru ranks Oregon 17 in his AP Poll vote and expects the Ducks to finish 9-3. Because of the Blue Blood history, I get the preseason love for USC. But the back end of the SC schedule is loaded and I don't think that SC defeats Utah, UW, UCLA, and Oregon this season. Utah? Made the champ game in 2022 only because of its schedule. The SC D stunk. But Utah was fortunate to defeat SC in SLC and also fortunate that it was coming off of a game vs CU, probably the worst P5 team in 2022, while SC was coming off of a game against Notre Dame and Williams played on one leg in the 2nd half of the champ game. UW? With better coaching decisions both Oregon and Oregon State would have defeated UW last season. Because of the depth of the conference, I think Oregon finishes 10-2. Wins the champ game and wins the Fiest Bowl game. Your toss-up take is spot on.