Jon Joseph

11-2? I think this is hugely optimistic; glass filled all the way to the top. My high water mark is 11-3. My low water mark is 8-5. What I hope to see, is 10-4. I see at least 1L Ls vs Utah. Covey was the Utes most exciting player but not the Utes best player. The Utes return a lot. Got a stud LB from Florida to replace Lloyd and Rising is the undisputed starting QB from day 1. I think if Utah wins at Florida, a final 4 run is in play for Utah. BYU is not on Utah's schedule and Utah gets San Diego State and a cupcake in SLC to round out its OOC schedule. I hope the author is correct but in general, I find his takes to be hugely optimistic. I think Oregon finishes in top 25 and not at the SP+ projected 32, but there are tons of questions regarding the 2022 Ducks and if asked, I'm the guy who says there will be no win in Atlanta, and that vs BYU will be far closer than the author predicts. I do not see the Ducks going 5-0 in conference road games. I think that the game at WSU will be far closer than the author predicts. How you predict final scores without knowing who the starting QB will be, among many other questions, is beyond me.

Thank you Charles. "Dear Zachary, forgive me if I question whether under coach Mirabel the Ducks OL 'was in good hands?' If in 'good hands,' shouldn't these highly ranked OL guys have road graded Stanford? Thank you and all the best." Culture and recruiting rankings? The only thing that matters is Ws. Lots of good men who had 'character guys' in the locker room and achieved excellent team APRs have been fired because they didn't win enough games.

"Dynasty?" I love the author's enthusiasm but ...? Perhaps a 'dynasty' in the Pac-12; this I can see. But nationally? Top 10 Heisman finishers 2018 - 2021 - SEC - 13; B1G - 10; B12 - 6; ACC - 5; G5 - 4; Pac-12 1 - Gardiner Minshew. 0 - number of Pac-12 players on offense expected to go in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. 0 - Pac-12 QBs invited to the NFL Combine. Again, I love the post and the positive thinking but if a dynasty is to be born in Eugene it likely will not begin before 2023, if then. Nix is a very good QB but I think Dan Lanning would tell us in all honesty that 2022 with games OOC 'at' UGA and versus BYU and 5 road games is not conducive to making this season's final 4. Maybe in 2023 when at Texas Tech replaces 'at' UGA? Michigan and Cincinnati were both darn good football teams in 2021. Georgia and Alabama smothered these 2, like Ohio State smothered Oregon in the 1st playoff champ game. 84 SEC guys have been invited to the 2022 NFL combine; more than twice the number invited from the Pac-12. I have high expectations for Lanning and his staff but I believe some level of patience will be required and I hate to see unrealistic expectations placed on Lanning. Making the Fiesta Bowl in 2021, or playing in another NY6 Bowl would be one heck of an accomplishment for the 2022 Ducks.

I've watched every Super Bowl game, went to 7, including the games these Ducks played in. So, am I happy now? NO!

Darren, I predict that Clemson and FSU will be SEC members sooner rather than later. And that the B1G will possibly add AAU schools Pitt, UVA, UNC, Georgia Tech, Duke and Kansas. Expansion will not stop as is today. BTW: B12 adding UCF, brilliant! Orlando just passed Miami in media size. Stayin as is and as noted above, the Pac-12 has no shot of closing the widening financial gap between it and the other P5 conferences including and as noted above, The ACC and the 'new' B12. And IMO, no chance at saving the Pac-12 Network.

I'd love to go back to school but I'm out of eligibility and can't afford the tuition.

Best tackle in Scott Frost's career, keeping Sugar Ray Blount from charging into the Boise fans in the stands. THAT would have been UGH-LEE!

Great take and it is so good to have you on the forum and bringing another POV from 'football mad' Texas. I believe and the rankings at year end help me in this belief, that Riley was facing better top to bottom competition in the B12 than he will see in the Pac-12. (I also note that Big Game Bob was not so Big Game at the end of his tenure at OK. This of course does not include this year's out of retirement Alamo Bowl game.) The B-12 in 2021 finished at 5-2 with the best bowl record of the P5. 2 of these wins came in NY6 bowls. Is Riley Nick Saban? Heck No! But he is the only active coach in the Pac-12 to take his team to the playoff and he did it not once but thrice. Under his leadership he recruited very well to Oklahoma, a school located in a state that does not produce all that many top drawer recruits. He often beat out A+M and Texas for top recruits from the Lone Star state. He has already worked the portal on the O side of the ball to perfection, has some top drawer guys 'committed' for the 2023 class and is now smack dab in the middle of great recruiting territory. I note that Saban wasn't all that before he came south to coach at LSU. I agree with you that it is senseless to overrate the guy. But I think until proven otherwise, at SC he should be viewed as being the HC at a very serious annual competitor for the conference title, and also having a legit shot at the final 4. SC's OOC slate lightens up in 2022 going forward. Beat ND and he, with the possible exception of Oregon, will have a better roster than any opponent he faces in and out of conference. Does the D need help? Heck yes. But he isn't playing in a conference where he will need last season's UGA D to be competitive on that side of the ball. Again, thanks for the great take.

Rams, 28 - 24, 300, 70, 1, 4 Where is the coin flip prediction? Going to be hot. 85 degrees at kick off. The stadium is partially domed but not air conditioned. I want Joe B to score the trifecta but I just don't see the Bengals OL being able to hold off the excellent Rams DL?

Great take. That kind of money also keeps coaches who are successful in any and all sports at home. CU had no shot of keeping Mel Tucker when Michigan State came calling with a whole lot of bread in hand. WAZZU could not match the salary offered to Mike Leach, plus the increase in pay for Leach's assistant coaches and a huge increase in the $ and resources for recruiting. Like the G5 is for the P5, the Pac-12 is and will become more of a coaching training ground for the other P5 conferences.

AMEN. Follow the roster rankings. BTW, Oregon's roster was ranked #9 heading into the 2021 season. In the final AP poll, the Ducks finished no where close to the top 10. THIS is Mario.

'The answer is, FOUR?'

1 reason BYU is being looked at for NIL hanky-panky, besides the fact that it isn't an SEC school, is that a Cougars booster via NIL has offered to pay the full cost of education for every BYU walk on. This ploy was mentioned early on by Nick Saban as a possible way to exceed the scholarship cap. This troubles the NCAA. A Miami booster paying every guy on the roster $6.000 a year and TX paying every OL guys $50,000 a year? Nothing to see here, move right along.

You need better friends! Kidding. Most of my golfing buddies here is Dixie are Bama, Clemson, UGA and USC east fans. Fortunately Duck buddy Brent Pennington is only a couple of hours away. Lots of folks down this way believe it is still the Pac-10 and not 12; if the believe anything at all about Left Coast CFB. Be thankful that having exited Ohio, the 'late' games kickoff at 7:30 and not 10:30. BTW: Great post.

Some of the projections in my opinion are nuts but Connelly has been amazingly accurate regarding the teams in the initial top 4 that end up in the playoff.

I disagree my friend. Oregon being in the Pac-10 division would play 8 teams in the division every year, OR ST being a permanent opponent. There would be 2 division cross over games. With 4 P4 conferences and a guarantee of the Pac-20 championship being in the playoff, you could even have 3 cross over games. Today, the Pac-12 is going to the media market place with the same 'goods' as before. Add the number of Pac-12 and the additional 8 teams whose players have been invited to the 2022 NFL combine and you do not close in on the SEC but you do significantly close in on the B1G. GK will do his best but as is the Pac-12 will not be able to close the financial and recruiting gap and the Pac-12 network will continue to struggle or more likely, close shop.

Projected P5 conference revenues for 2022 through 2024, when the current PAC-12 media deal ends. B1G - $250.6 M SEC - $195 M B 12 - $161.8 M ACC - $146.5 M Pac-12 - $134.9 M Now, imagine that we were on the verge of a Pac-20 (OK ST, TX TECH, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Kansas, K ST, Iowa St) with the B12 gone as a competitor for media rights. And with the Pac-12 in the central time zone including football crazy Texas. Now imagine the new subscribers who would have subscribed to the Pac-20 Network saving the Pac-12 Network from financial insolvency, returning the capital Pac-12 schools originally invested plus a ROI and quite likely convincing a media entity like FOX to be the owner/operator of the Pac-20 Network. A tragic business mistake. As is, the new Pac-12 media deal will not significantly close this revenue disparity; not even close.

For all those who want a sad CFB read, see on ESPN+ (pay wall) "Oklahoma and Texas who? How the new-look B12 is ready to thrive" by Adam Rittenberg. Standing Still and not picking up leftover B12 teams + Houston, one of the worst CFB business decisions of all time. You stand still in any big business and you fall behind. The Pac-12 is already far enough behind.

As a predictive model, SP+ has the Ducks as at least a 10 point plus dog vs the UGA dawgs. UGH! Beating the defending champs in Atlanta in his HC debut would be a huge W for Lanning and a huge upset. I hope the Ducks are competitive in this game and will defeat BYU at home. No doubt Oregon will be favored to win the North. I think at WSU is going to be a very tough game. New QB Ward as noted above, threw for close to 5,000 yards in 2021 and won the' FCS Heisman,' the Walter Peyton Award. With his HC following him and taking over as the WSU OC job, there will be no learning curve when it comes to the style of offense WSU will play. It would surprise most of the CFB world but I expect WSU to hang in against the Badgers in Madison; perhaps, even pull the upset if WSU can turn the game into a shoot out?

No, No and Yes.

You can have all the best ingredients in your kitchen but without the right chef? I have a very POSITIVE view regarding Mario leaving.

Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his first 2022 SP+ rankings of the 131 teams playing P5/G5 football. SP+ is 'a predictive measure of CFB efficiency' based on (i) returning production, (ii) recent recruiting and transfers, and (iii) recent history. As Connelly himself notes, the SP+ often significantly differs from the majority of preseason rankings. However, in the 8 years of the CFB playoff the SP+ has predicted 3 out of the 4 teams on 6 occasions and has gone 4 for 4 on two occasions. The SP+ is updated after spring practice and after practice in August. SP+ initial top 12 for 2022: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Alabama 4. Michigan - Both OC and DC gone. But MI picked up 2nd team AA Vastardio from Virginia to replace its departing center. The other 4 OL starters from MI's award winning 2021 OL are back. 5. Clemson 6. Texas A+M 7. Oklahoma 8. Notre Dame 9. Tennessee - I know. This is a 'What?' TN and Auburn are the only 2 schools in the country that have to play Bama and UGA every season. 10. Wisconsin 11. Cincinnati 12. Mississippi State - SEE: Tennessee Pac-12 rankings - 14. Utah - far lower than all other preseason polls. 31. ASU - 2nd best team in the Pac-12? I don't see it. 32. OREGON - please, don't shoot the messenger! BTW, BYU comes in at 23, meaning two SP+ top 25 teams on the Ducks 2022 OOC schedule. Thanks Rob. 44. UCLA - piece of cake OOC schedule (Michigan backed out of a H+H) could set the Bruins up for a better finish than this? 46. Oregon State - interesting that the Beavers have yet to add a 2022 transfer from the portal. 61. UW - too high? Picked up a possible starting QB in Penix from Indiana and just added a quality LB from Pitt. 64. USC - Bill Connelly notes that he has no idea what to expect out of USC in 2022. Personally, I think this is way too low considering the O that SC will put on the field vs Pac-12 Ds. 68. Stanford - I guess no positive impact from very good incoming recruiting class. Cardinal picked up at 3 year OK starter at CB from the portal. 70. Washington State - With the addition of Incarnate Word QB, Cameron Ward, who threw for close to 5,000 (!) yards last season, and with his IW HC taking over as WSU's OC, I think WSU could be the Pac-12's surprise team of 2022? 74. CAL - Lots of 1 score Ls in 2021. Can QB Plummer from Purdue play as well or better than Garbers? 99. Arizona - With a very good recruiting class and good transfers including the QB from WSU, I think AZ will surprise a few teams. 102. Colorado -already suspect Buffs were portal punished. Top 3 P5 by conference - ACC - 5 Clemson, 13 Pitt (SC transfer Slovis likely to be Pitt's starting QB,) 15. NC State (Mario is MIA)/ B12 - 7 OK, 30. Baylor, 33. TX/ B1G - 1 Ohio State, 4 Michigan, 10 Wisconsin/ Pac-12 - 14 Utah, 31 ASU, 32 OREGON/ SEC - 2 UGA, 3 Bama, 6 A+M Average conference ranking. 1 SEC, 2 B1G (1+2, follow the $) 3 ACC, 4 B12, 5 Pac-12 Connelly, in regards to OREGON being 12 in the ESPN preseason poll and 32 in SP+ - "SP+ never saw the Ducks as serious contenders last fall, but it still had them at 14 after 10 games before dropping all the way to 38th with a dismal 1-3 finish. With a new head coach and a new starting QB, Oregon is not expected to immediately surge back." Although the schedule is brutal, versus 2 and 23 OOC and 5 conference road games I do expect the Ducks will win the North in 2022; how about you?

Are you certain that isn't Truth or Consequences, New Mexico? (A town that, like Cut and Shoot, TX, actually exists.)

Great take! Only place I quibble; how many kids right out of high school are capable of making an NFL roster? I do not see the '3 years out of high school rule' as discriminating against but possibly a handful of players. Especially with NIL now in place. Star players in CFB today are likely making more money than the guys on NFL practice squads. The 32 NFL owners are very smart business people, With the possibility that college athletes on scholarship in revenue sports will be classified as 'employees,' which is certain to radically change CFB, I think the NFL is likely looking into forming its own minor league. The NFL has been a CFB development free rider for decades and the time is coming when, like MLB, it will have to form its own minor league. There needs to be a place where football players can develop in all respects, including most importantly physically, from graduating high school to playing in the NFL. The more I consider where CFB is headed, the more I ponder whether the NFL needs a college super-league fronting as a minor league development system? The NFL can draft players out of high school. Rosters will be the size of NFL and not college, rosters. Players will become members of the NFL Players Union. Paid to play. No unrestricted 'portal free agency.' No admissions requirements and no APR progress to worry about. The needed facilities already exist. And coaches will be paid reasonable salaries, no where close to millions of dollars a year. As popular as big time CFB? No. But plenty of folks do watch minor league baseball. The G League is trending as an alternative to college before playing in the NBA and I see the same happening with the NFL. I agree with you regarding CFB or any other college coaches making a move. Like in business everywhere, if someone offers you bigger money either your existing employer steps up or you move on. CFB is a big business that is at the P5/G5 level, rapidly losing any vestige of 'amateur' athletics. Players become 'employees' and hello 'Ivy League Ball' for many the school. And so long to many the sport at schools not as well endowed as are the Ivy League schools. I think the players suing for 'employee' status are getting terrible advice. The majority will not play in the NFL and thousands of young people will lose their college 'free ride.'

Agree. Before Dabo, Miami has to pass Pitt, Wake, NC St, and win its non-conference games including against FCS schools like JAX State. Why will Mario have the teams at Miami ready to play when he didn't have them ready to play at Oregon? Mario has been an HC for a number of years. The light is not all of a sudden going to turn on for Mario. He has always been a great recruiter as an assistant or an HC and is 62-60 as a HC. He will occasionally pull off the big upset, like at Ohio State and will lose to teams he has no business losing to, and keep inferior teams in the game with his 'prevent' O. I think Billy Napier at Florida was a far better hire than was Mario at Miami.