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Everything posted by Jon Joseph
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2025-26 College Football Playoff - How Much Will Strength of Schedule and Record Matter?
TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON! In the outstanding comedy, Trading Places, Mortimer Duke may have foreshadowed SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey. The SEC's move to nine regular-season conference games beginning in 2026 was, according to Sankey, based in part on the Playoff Committee agreeing to use 'advanced metrics' to determine a team's strength of schedule (SOS) and Strength of Record (SOR), and to rely upon both calculations when determining the 12-team Playoff field. In other words, 2024's 3-loss Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina would be in the Playoff, instead of 11-1 Indiana and a second ACC team, SMU. To wit - How Strength of Schedule and Record Strength Will Impact CFP Rankings in the New CFP Metric The system used by the Committee in determining SOS and SOR is the product of SportsSource Analytics and is proprietary. The programming the Committee will use to determine SOS and SOR is not disclosed or available to the general public. So, SEC Commissioner Sankey was apparently given the inside scoop? If so, I do not know if the same information was provided to the other conference commissioners and the Notre Dame athletic director. To get a handle on 'The Machines,' I referred to the Massey Ratings, a widely referred to computer ranking, owned by Dr. Kenneth Massey and On3, and available to the public, to determine a putative Playoff field at the regular season's halfway mark. You can search 'Understanding the Massey Ratings on On3,' or search 'Massey Ratings' for the up-to-date ranking of the Power 4, Group of 6, and Notre Dame. The Massey Playoff Predicter through Week Seven, with a team's current SOS and estimated future SOS. 1. 6-0 Ohio State - 33/55 2. 6-0 Indiana - 20/43 3. 5-1 Alabama - 2/9 4. 6-0 Ole Miss - 32/29 5. 5-1 Georgia - 4/11 6. 6-0 Texas A&M - 9/7 7. 5-1 OREGON - 12/18 8. 5-0 Miami - 15/45 9. 4-2 Notre Dame - 6/36 10. 6-0 Texas Tech - 56/56 11. 4-2 Texas - 11/12 12. 6-0 Memphis - 105/86 (actual rank - 28) Memphis knocks out No. 12-ranked LSU. Sorry, Sankey 😁. I am not surprised by the SEC's current and future SOS rankings. I'm not surprised by B12 Texas Tech's low ranking. I am pleasantly surprised by Indiana and OBD's SOS ranking. In this Playoff forecast, Oregon would host Texas Tech in a 1st round game. The ranking for OBD's future opponents: 16. USC, 17. Washington, 24. Iowa, 51. Minnesota, 61. Wisconsin, 62. Rutgers. On Selection Sunday, December 7, 2025, which teams and conference commissioners will be shouting out - TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!
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Lanning: Little Bit Softer Now, Little Bit Louder Now…
Wouldn't this be nice? A home game win over Notre Dame and a defeat of Miami in the Orange Bowl? Canes WarningCFB analyst Josh Pate predicts Miami to be upset by Orego...Josh Pate's midseason bracket projects Miami's road to the College Football Playoff running through Hard Rock Stadium — but ending there against Oregon. In an u
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Lanning: Little Bit Softer Now, Little Bit Louder Now…
Mike, I don't mean to harp on schedules. OK, I admit to harping on. 😁 OBD's remaining schedule at Rutgers, Wisconsin, at Iowa, Minnesota, USC, and at UW is not easy, and SOS-wise will be more difficult if Iowa defeats Penn State, USC defeats No. 13 Notre Dame, and UW wins in Ann Arbor this Saturday. But compared to the Bruins, and Tim Skipper and Jerry Neuheisel's remaining six, OBD's remainder is 'manageable.' The Bruins' next six opponents - Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, Washington, and USC. UCLA plays Indiana, Ohio State, and USC on the road. Five of UCLA's last six games could be played against Top 25 opponents. OBD has no excuse not to TCB. Get Right at Rutgers!
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Lanning: Little Bit Softer Now, Little Bit Louder Now…
Thanks for the uplifting take. All good points well made. How about A Little Different Now when in a time out? Byes have not been OBD's friend. Good call on the performance of the defense vs. Indiana. The defense also played well at Penn State. The offense has not hit on all cylinders against B1G competition. Even versus Northwestern, the offense seemed to be disjointed. But Northwestern is 4-2 and Penn State is 3-3. 😁 Obviously, Penn State was flat after the double OT loss to OBD, but the UCLA offense was terrific against Penn State and also against lesser (I think) competition against Michigan State. You get punched in the chops for a half, OK. But the offense of a team with the 5th best roster in CFB floundering for 60 minutes, not punching back, is concerning. A beatdown from a terrific Georgia team to open Dan's career was understandable. As Kirby Smart noted, 'Dan knows we have better players.' Today? FWIW, Montana State is ranked 4th in the first release of the FCS playoff committee poll. Thanks again, Mike. Get Right at Rutgers!
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2025 BIG Info, Predictions, Etc. (11)
Venting here. I have a B1G Beef with the B1G media deal. West to East travel - there should be no kickoffs before 3:30 Eastern. East to West travel - no kickoffs later than 3:30 Eastern. No Pacific time zone NFL teams play games in the East that kick off at 9 AM body clock time, Noon Eastern. Folks in the Central and Eastern time zones should be able to watch their teams play before 10:30 PM Eastern. Players should depart the West Coast before 3:00 to 4:00 AM Eastern Time. The biggest draws in the B1G, Ohio State and Michigan, should not be saddled with a host of Noon kickoffs. The most-watched game to date in 2025 saw Texas at Ohio State. This with a Noon kickoff. How many more folks would have watched in prime time? Millions. ESPN times the presentation of SEC games far better than the Fox broadcast group. Of course, it's easier for ESPN to deal with only two SEC time zones and reserve the late starts for the B12. One easy fix: the West Coast teams should be permanent opponents of one another. If it takes a season longer to cycle through the conference, so be it. This weekend's B1G, B1G Beef. Two of the hottest teams in CFB for different reasons are Indiana (sigh) and Penn State. These teams are riding waves of publicity, and folks want to watch both play ball. Penn State at Iowa, and Michigan State at Indiana, both on Peacock.🤬 Having both games streamed on Saturday is bad business. Millions more fans could and would be watching these games on linear TV. Watch Out For Waving Cane!
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Oregon - Rutgers Pre-Game Reports, Interviews, Etc.
Pancho takes the blame for a six-pack of sacks. https://247sports.com/college/oregon/article/oregons-iapani-laloulu-on-six-sacks-against-indiana-i-take-ownership-of-every-one-of-them-257062543/?source=column&lctg=26140&eid=c7d8647c6247db8d08c59fe44bc30380a147aa90b9e33
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James Franklin is Out at Penn State
Nebraska QB Dylan Riola's comment on Matt Ruhle's possibly leaving for Penn State - "He ain't goin' nowhere," provides further justification for Nebraska being the only member of the Big Ten without AAU accreditation. 😁 https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/nebraska-qb-dylan-raiola-addresses-matt-rhule-being-linked-to-the-penn-state-job-he-aint-going-nowhere/?eid=c7d8647c6247db8d08c59fe44bc30380a147aa90b9e33099045cd46ddc6a485b&ftag I hopes Dylend ain't a Englesh majer. 🤪
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Sources: Big Ten Mulling $2B Private Capital Deal
Another take on the proposed private capital deal from a Michigan site on the Wolverines and the Trojans possibly vetoing the deal. Strange bedfellows after SC blew out the Wolverines in LA last Saturday? 😁 I understand the concern. With the fluidity of all things college football, is it in the best interest of sure-thing Super League teams to lock into an existing conference affiliation through 2046? Even members of the conference currently in the lead, finance-wise? Maize n BrewThe Big Ten’s $2.4 billion private equity deal may be in...The Big Ten wants to ink a $2.4 billion private equity deal, but needs unanimous approval from university presidents. The University of Michigan seems highly skeptical and perhaps even opposed to it,
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Sometimes Losing Is Winning
One problem with these mega conferences is that Ducks vs. Hoosiers could be one heck of a rivalry, but the return game in Bloomington is not until 2028. Maybe payback in the Playoffs?
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Sometimes Losing Is Winning
Thank you, Darren. If it's Good Rocky on the rebound, bouncing back against Apollo Creed and Clubber Lane at Rutgers: Yo! Adrian! 😍 A loss could mean going on the road and coming up short, not to, but in Mason Dixon. Or worse? 🤬 GET RIGHT AT RUTGERS! Knock the SHI out of Schiano in SHI Stadium! (SHI Stadium! You cannot make things like Tony Soprano (James Gandolfini), being a Rutgers graduate, and the name of the stadium up. 🤪 It's only a movie, right?) Thanks again for another entertaining and timely read.
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James Franklin is Out at Penn State
Former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald will be a head coach again in 2026. Penn State? Wisconsin? He did wonders at Northwestern, the Vanderbilt of the B1G. With Penn State's resources, facilities, and lower admission standards? Seeing as how it's McElroy doing the predicting, I wonder why he passed on Nick Saban?🤪 CFB-HQ On SIGreg McElroy identifies former Big Ten coach to consider...The search for Penn State’s next head coach is already picking up steam, and Greg McElroy believes one familiar Big Ten name deserves attention. On Tuesday’s ep
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Oregon's Road to a B1G Title and the Playoff Will Not be Easy
ND, this Saturday, please clip Lane 'Tween the Hedges and kick his booty all the way from Athens to Trinidad. 😁
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Run The Gol' Dang Ball
Whoa Nellie on the negative talk surrounding OBD. Tom Fornelli's Power Ratings have a B1G trifecta on top. 1. Ohio State 2. Indiana 3. OBD https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-power-ratings-indiana-ohio-state-oregon-big-ten/ I'm off to watch my recording of Tommy Boy! 😁
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Time for Stein to Move up to the Box
I don't know. I do know I'm the most tech-challenged guy on the planet, so this is a WAG, but I think it provides an overhead view downfield and does not just follow the ball as is the case on TV. This is a guess, and I hope someone more on the ball 😁tech-wise will provide a definitive answer.
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Run The Gol' Dang Ball
Charles, do you have any remaining eligibility? There is a 58-year-old guy playing college football this season, and you see the field so well. You know I'm only (half) kidding. 😊 The Rose Bowl was an Epic Fail. This was a Fail. Dante goes from Heisman front-runner to his days playing for Chip at UCLA? The defense plays a very good game until it really matters in the 4th quarter? Oh well. Next case. It could be worse, in spades. We could be in (un)Happy Valley trying to qualify for the Sun Bowl😁with Saturday's game on the road against a team that never plays good D at home, Iowa. Then, after a nap, our Nits get to play ball in Columbus before entertaining Indiana. 🤪 If I'm back up QB Ethan Grunkmeyer's agent, I'm telling Grunk to take up field hockey. 🙃 Or, we could be Mad 🤬in Madison, where the only barrel we want to roll out is filled with Fickell pickle juice. Get right at Rutgers!
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Time for Stein to Move up to the Box
Excellent point, but I believe the video on the tablet is shot from above and not at field level. On the sideline, you're looking at an aerial view.
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Oregon's Road to a B1G Title and the Playoff Will Not be Easy
Spot on, Geo, and I'm sorry, OBD Forum friends and fans. 😒But ... Cheer for SC to Fight On to victory at Notre Dame, and for UW to win in Ann Arbor. Also, an Iowa win over Penn State at home, and a Nebraska win in Minneapolis, would help OBD's SOS cause. 💩 You don't have to tell me, I'm already on the way to my room. 🙃
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Oregon’s Offensive Line Folds To Indiana
Thanks, DM. It isn't easy having to perform an autopsy. 😧 The two starting OTs were exposed. Still, the defense after Finney's pick-6 could have preserved a victory. In the 4th quarter, the defense has been bad vs. B1G opponents. 2nd stringers on the field against Northwestern, but it's NW, man. The offense has not been impressive in three games vs. B1G opponents, including at 4-2 (!) Northwestern and at 3-3 Penn State. Both the offense and defense failed against quality 6-0 Indiana. As he admitted, Dan and his assistants were schooled by a guy with far more coaching experience. I liked your noting Sappinton's misses on important FG tries. Will OBD ever find a clutch you don't have to pucker up when he walks on the field, FG kicker? Two very disappointing efforts coming off the last two byes. Something needs to change in the off weeks. A sense of urgency in the Rose Bowl and on Saturday was lacking. Badly outcoached off the last two byes. Time to get right at Rutgers, a team with a good offense and a crummy defense. If OBD cannot cover -14.5 at Rutgers, then DUCK! I'm looking at the game vs. Indiana as an anomaly and hoping I am correct in doing so. Wins at Rutgers and against Wisconsin should be no problem. (Knock Wood.) But at Iowa, the following Friday night against a Gophers team coming off a bye, and USC, and at UW will not be easy wins. Indiana has handled its trips to the Pacific time zone perfectly. Without a word of whining. OBD has no chance to hand the Hoosiers a regular-season payback before 2028 in Bloomington. 🤬
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Oregon's Road to a B1G Title and the Playoff Will Not be Easy
We're halfway through the 2025 season. With the home loss to Indiana, Oregon does not have an easy path to repeat as the B1G champion and return to the College Football Playoff. Autzen ZooDucks on a collision course along a very tough road in B1...Dan Lanning and his players performed so well to start this season that Oregon fans forgot this was a young team in a rebuilding/reloading year. Two B1G teams are undefeated - 6-0 No. 1 Ohio State, and 6-0 No. 3 Indiana. Four teams have one loss at the halfway mark - Oregon, Nebraska, USC, and Washington. No. 25 Nebraska is ranked behind No. 24 Cincinnati, a team the Cornhuskers defeated in its opening game in Kansas City, and behind several 2-loss teams. S(ec)MH! Two-loss teams, Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Maryland, are still in the B1G title and playoff hunt. But none of these teams are odds-on to play for a conference title or be included in the playoff field. Except for USC and 5-2 Illinois, all Big Ten teams have six conference games remaining. This Saturday, before finishing with five conference games, USC plays Notre Dame in South Bend. No. 26 Illinois is 5-2. A back-of-the-envelope strength of schedule using future opponents' records to date has USC tied with OBD with games against the most difficult remaining B1G opponents. USC, with the game at Notre Dame, does have the overall most difficult remaining slate of games. All of the below schedule-ranked teams have three home and three road games left. Two of USC's five remaining B1G games are on the road. 1. No. 20 USC opponent records, including No. 13 Notre Dame - 24-12/ +12 USC B1G opponent records - 20-10/ +10 - including road games at No. 25 Nebraska and No. 8 Oregon. 2. No. 8 OREGON - 23-13/ +10 - including No. 20 USC and at No. 28 UW. 3. No. 25 NEBRASKA - 22-14/ +8 - including No. 20 USC. 4. No. 28 WASHINGTON - 20-17/ +3 - including at No. 27 Michigan and No. 8 OBD. 5. No. 3 INDIANA - 17-18/ -1 / No ranked opponents remaining. The most difficult remaining game is on the road at 4-2 Maryland. Once ranked, Penn State is also a road game. Indiana hosts an improving UCLA. 6. No. 1 OHIO STATE - 15-21/ -6 / This is the B1G murderers' row remaining for the Buckeyes: At Wisconsin, Bye, Penn State, at Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, at No. 27 Michigan. If Ryan Day doesn't get the Wolverine off of his back this season, then when? Easy to project from the above - December 6, 2025 - Ohio State vs. Indiana in Indianapolis. Considering 2-loss Notre Dame is ranked No. 13, and 2-loss Texas is ranked No. 21, and with G6 USF ranked No. 19, Washington at No. 28, with its only loss to No. 1 Ohio State, is inexplicable. Both No. 26 Illinois and No. 27 Michigan could be ranked. Tony Pettiti, do not back away from your AQ playoff model, please! It's prove-it time for Lincoln Riley at Notre Dame, but based on results to date, including SC's beat down of Michigan, USC at No. 20 is absurd. GO DUCKS!
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AP Poll - Week 7
As they used to ask in Bloomington, Indiana, "Is it basketball season yet?" Hoo knew? 🤪 Preseason AP Men's basketball Top 25. OBD is ranked No. 27, while Purdue is ranked No. 1. On3College Basketball Rankings: Preseason AP Poll Top 25 rev....
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Portal Quarterbacks: My Words Come Back to Haunt Me...
"Oregon has been blessed by having experienced QBs at the sport's most important position." https://247sports.com/college/oregon/article/is-it-time-to-reset-season-expectations-after-the-blindsiding-loss-to-indiana-256504445/?source=column&lctg=26140&eid=c7d8647c6247db8d08c59fe44bc30380a14 I'm still bullish on OBD's PO chances. Bullish on Dante Moore improving. Bullish on players playing up to their ability. OBD needs to bounce back in New Jersey and start putting up points early and often against a B1G opponent. The O sputtered at Northwestern, at Penn State, which was far more excusable at the time than it is today, and put up 64 net yards against Indiana in the 2nd half. Equally concerning is the inability of the defense to hold onto leads in the 4th quarter. OBD is -14.5 at Rutgers. We'll see how USC performs at Notre Dame, but last Saturday, SC outrushed Michigan 224 yards to 109, with most of the yards posted by a walk-on RB. SC has one B1G loss by three points on the road at Illinois and is the only B1G team with five, not six, conference games remaining. Washington at Michigan? UW definitely has a chance to win this game. Iowa destroyed Wisconsin in Madison, 35-0, and is favored, -3.5, at Penn State. Iowa shut down the Indiana offense in Iowa City. With the turmoil in not-so-Happy Valley, I'm surprised Iowa isn't a TD-plus favorite. The remainder of OBD's six opponents are better today than they looked in the preseason. The future B1G opponents are 23-13. The +10 win difference presents the most difficult remaining schedule among conference champ contenders in the B1G. We'll know far more after this weekend, but both SC, UW, and perhaps even Iowa could all be ranked for the game versus OBD.
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Portal Quarterbacks: My Words Come Back to Haunt Me...
Ooops, I missed Joey Aguilar at Tennessee, a revived Nico at UCLA, and Chandler Morris at UVA.
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AP Poll - Week 7
AP Poll Post Week 7 Playoff - AP will project the 2025-26 PO through 11/4/25 when the PO committee releases its first ranking. AP NewsIndiana, Texas A&M would be top-four CFP seeds based on A...Indiana and Texas A&M would be top-four seeds in the College Football Playoff based on latest The Associated Press Top 25.
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Time for Stein to Move up to the Box
Does having tablets on the sideline change your opinion at all? It's all right there to show and share with the QB one-on-one when he comes off the field. That was a Rose Bowl-like pasting. Yet, the Ducks had the lead late, and the defense allowed Mendoza, following what could have been a devastating pick 6, to drive his team 75 yards to the winning score. The same late letdown on D that allowed PSU to tie the game. Is the defense in 'game shape '? Is the problem with where the coach is positioned or with not making adjustments to a plan of attack that was failing? I'm reasonably certain that Stein on the sidelines could see on the tablet and on the field of play that his offense was flailing and failing. From the sideline, the box, and the bleacher seats, why all of the substitutions at running back? Why not a change in the plan of attack? Lanning was spot on postgame. Lanning and crew were outcoached before the game and in-game. As Cignetti noted postgame, this was not the first time his teams have won big games on the road. But it was the first time Cig posted a big win in a B1G game that the nation noticed. Cig and friends won the bye week. Last season, Indiana was outclassed physically at Ohio State and Notre Dame. Indiana's composite roster is ranked in the 70s; Oregon's is ranked No. 5. But the LOS failures against last season's national champion and runner-up were masterfully addressed and corrected via the portal. Cignetti and his associates have been together for a long time. They have far more game planning and in-game experience than Dan and his assistants. Intriguing question, friend Solar, but I don't think it would have made a difference where Stein was located on Saturday. After all, he was on the sideline with the same QB and information at hand when the offense rolled Montana State, Oklahoma State, and Oregon State. To date, we haven't seen the same performance out of this offense against three B1G opponents.
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James Franklin is Out at Penn State
Agents vs ADs is a one-way negotiation. Why don't the contracts have a Right of First Refusal instead of these absurd buyouts? If a coach wants out, wants to go to another program, do you want him hanging around? On occasion, like when Cristobal went MIA, the left behind team will bag some bucks. But for the most part, it's the school firing the coach that is on the hook.