CalBear95

Watching Georgia vs Alabama and the Bulldogs look very much like a team that isn't taking an "L" any time soon (ETA: Alabama just scored a TD but still...). Kirby Smart made a difference almost immediately after his hiring. The fact he has his team back in the NC mix after a bit of a lull confirms he is the real deal (and very willing to make changes rather than follow some dogmatic scheme) Tucker looks pretty good but his sample size is a bit small to tag him as reasonably having major upside ($9MM/yr is clearly a 2-3 forward looking valuation? Less clear). Kiffin resurrected his career and is doing well. Always an innovator (even Saban credits him for helping him adjust his own approach at Alabama). Between all of the above and MC...?

Yikes...I wrote the above and even I can't be sure what it means. Also, horrified of repeating 'down the road' twice. I am mailing my degree back to Cal

Agree. MC is gone. I think Mullens has played this well. My guess is he has an eye to future negotiations for a future hire and doesn't want to put a contract offer into the ecosystem that starts as that next target's agent. It also allows him to say, quite rightly, he did all he reasonably could to keep MC. I am OK with this outcome probably because it was a bomb that was going to explode somewhere down the road be that now or 3-4 years down the road.

@Charles Fischer Thanks for the notice. I will avoid that subject going forward.

All of the coaches have massive egos but I will grant you Lane's is likely on the higher side. For those who advocate Fickell as a target, have you learned nothing from the past two hires? Same goes for Campbell. They are midwest guys and will always have a strong desire to take good jobs 'where their heart is.' Stop the insanity!

My wife and I were talking about something akin to the decision Mullens faces but in the context of whether we travel to see our parents with the news of the omicron variant being in the US and - it appears - 2x as effective as Delta all but ensuring it will outcompete today's predominant strain of the virus. Holiday travel is ~3 weeks away. In that time I expect we will know transmissibility (see 2x) and the rate of vaccine breakthrough. What I really doubt we will know is virulence given that is usually a 2+ week lagging indicator and the known sample size likely isn't representative or large enough for reliable directional guidance. So if omicron is both highly transmissible and largely evades vaccines, should we go see our 70+ y/o parents? I have no idea of the risk I am putting them in because virulence is likely a total unknown. The risk of being wrong is rather high. Granted the above scenario is about the risk of putting the health of your parents at risk versus football which is quite trivial by comparison. But the framework is applicable to Mullen's current spot w/MC. The reason is the beta on MC is really high. A relatively impartial read on the past several years support both the views that he's a great recruiter but not a great coach and that he is a great coach but has just had some challenging circumstances in the past 2 years that have skewed the results. If you lose him because you undervalue his potential then you have lost a true opportunity to take the program to new heights. Conversely if you pay him like a James Franklin and it turns out the bearish read on his future value you have hung an albatross around the program's neck. Mullens has limited data and has to make a really hard decision as it relates to predicting future. As I said, massive beta. I think the reported $7MM says Mullens is placing a soft Put on MC's stock. If Miami wants to get into Tucker and Franklin type compensation, they are, in Mullen's view, overvaluing the 'asset.' I think that price is fair market value.

I think the most troubling response from MC was the comment all but confirming he is just waiting for Miami to get the offer he wants. The 'nobody has spoken to me' is the non-denial denial that coaches make when they are in discussions with another program to leave. He very likely is not lying. But he is being deceptive. Miami is talking to his agent who in turn is talking to his client, MC. There was a comment made earlier about not hiring coaches from FL which, while somewhat tongue in cheek, might be a good principle at a macro level. When coaches are open about their 'dream jobs' and those jobs are the other side of the country, they are, in essence, putting out to that school that they are super ready to go if and when a call is made. They have success at Oregon and lo and behold, that school magically targets our coach. I want a coach who wants to build a powerhouse and sees Oregon as the place to do it. West coast ties really help because they aren't 'homesick' for another part of americana. They have no sentimental pull from a part of the world that is very different than the west coast let alone the PNW. Kiffin fits that profile, as one example.

Without a doubt, I would hire Lane Kiffin. He's clearly grown as a coach since his disastrous stint at USC. I think his time with Saban was a real growth period and what he has done with Mississippi is testament to that. While his personality many not be for everyone, I get the sense the players love him. Also, he knows how to develop a QB which, to date, has been a material question around MC. There are undoubtedly mitigating reasons for this, but it is a huge unknown and a material liability if, in fact, proves to be an accurate assessment.