AnotherOD

I think I read Oregon had a 25 day layoff last year before tOSU (12/7 to 1/1). If Oregon gets a first round game, it still ends up being 21 days (11/29 to 12/20). If it gets a bye, it is going to be 33 days (11/29 to 1/1). As an Oregon fan I don't think it's good to have anything to do with 33 days. Going back to 2010, Oregon/Auburn faced the longest layoff between the end of a season and the final, 37 days (12/4 to 1/10). While entertaining, I'd argue the first half wasn't at all sharp by either team. At least both teams had to deal with it. In the case of this season, the bye teams coming off a layoff of 33 days face a team playing after 11 days off. I think there is again a good chance the bye teams all at least go into a first half hole. ASU (down 17-3) Oregon (down 34-8) Boise State (down 17-7) Georgia (down 13-3) It all looks pretty good right now for Oregon. I think most Duck fans already are pulling for Georgia, but I think it really doesn't want an Alabama win throwing a monkey in the wrench.

Comparing the Stein years? Well, one could also use something like Offensive FEI (opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring advantage per non-garbage time possession) over at BCSToys? 2023 1 Oregon 1.13 2 LSU 1.09 3 Georgia 0.85 4 Washington 0.65 2024 1 Ohio State 0.81 2 Oregon 0.76 3 Miami 0.73 4 Indiana 0.63 2025 1 Vanderbilt 1.01 2 USC 0.81 3 Oregon 0.75 4 Old Miss 0.72 A dip in non-garbage time offense from year one to three with all 3 seasons firmly elite level? If Stein did stay another year the trend would suggest another dip to 4th in the nation on offense in 2026. Offensive F+ shows a similar pattern.

It took me a minute to figure out what this chart is trying to do. The colors make it a bit confusing. If the team averaged 310, 309, and 308 yards rushing in three consecutive season, one would be good, one would be so-so, and one would be bad. 300+ yards rushing is just good in all three years. Suggesting 310 would be a good year but 307 bad seems silly (as does highlighting dropping from 310 to 307 as significantly notable). I'd enjoy a chart with the same data that used generally accepted averages of good, average, and poor in each category and used colors to see how the offenses has done under Stein against those.

Penn State may very well be the big early signing day story tomorrow. I think they are down to 5 commits and all 5 I guess are either on flip watch or at least not expected to sign early. There seems to be the possibility they have 0 early signings tomorrow.

USC locked down three Mater Dai commits back in April and May, with some reported significant NIL assets (Bowman, Topui, and Scott). Mater Dai had what for them was a bit of a down year. I of course don't follow the Trinity League that closely but the long time mod at the USC site Wildwest Sports (Java) does. His recent comments on the three? "I said this team is overrated. They are undisciplined. They are ghetto. And almost all the players that USC is getting I truly do not like... going 7-3 or 8-3 with that talent is embarrassing. Mater DEI should fire (head coach) Lara and USC should pull the scholarships of Bowman, Scott and the fat kid (Tupui) in the middle. Or let Bowman redshirt." Who knows of course, but found it interesting given the fanfare going along with USC's class this year. 🤷‍♂️

Not sure exactly how accurate it is, but I've read Boise State and Auburn fans suggest by comparison Harsin makes Bryan Kelly look charming. I think Oregon kicked the tires on Harsin in both 2017 and 2021. It certainly could be argued that had potential disaster written all over it.

I imagine there are more than a few of us keeping an eye on what happens at Florida (and who they hire) if a certain freshman WR (briefly signed then released by Oregon) who went through an unfortunate injury plagued freshman season might be open to a fresh start? 6-3 and 215 would compliment Dakorien, Evan Stewart, and McClellan nicely in 2026. As well, (a Duck runner-up) freshman CB at LSU (who has looked very good), might consider a change with their new staff (though if he can handle Brian Kelly he probably can handle just about anyone). Odds for either a huge longshot but...

Looks like Crader is warming up with the ones and World with the twos. My guess is they are going to rest him if they can get by.

Yikes. Any idea what the plan would be at LT? Rogers? Bedford? Crader? Not ideal if World can't go.

From advanced stats, not including the Oregon/Minnesota and Iowa/USC games (only non-garbage time regulation snaps): Points Per Drive: USC: 3.71 (#2) Oregon: 3.33 (#8) However, Points Allowed Per Drive: Oregon: 1.13 (#4) USC: 2.26 (#72) And yards per play: USC: 8.07 (#1) Oregon: 7.19 (#5) Defensive yards per play allowed: Oregon: 3.75 (#1) USC: 6.07 (#92)

I was looking at some numbers and wow have Oregon and USC both faced some lower ranked offenses: USC: Notre Dame #25 Michigan #50 Nebraska #69 Illinois #70 Georgia Southern #75 Michigan State #80 Purdue #91 Northwestern #95 Missouri State #98 Iowa #118 Oregon Indiana #6 Montana State #14 (FCS) Rutgers #40 Oregon State #86 Northwestern #95 Penn State #108 Iowa #118 Oklahoma State #120 Minnesota #124 Wisconsin #133 So, both defenses probably have at least slightly elevated defensive stats; but, the good news is Oregon is ranked #3 in total defense and USC is #50. USC gave up 34 points and 442 yards to its top 40 offense faced (including 306 rushing). 4.5 points and 16 yards under Notre Dame's averages. Oregon allowed 30 points and 326 yards to Indiana (13 points and 152 yards under its average) and 10 points and 202 yards to Rutgers (20 points and 219 yards below their average). If one wants to throw in Montana State they were held 26 points and 199 yards below their average. So, looking at it from an outsider's perspective, Oregon's #3 overall defense might be helped out by half its opponents rated outside the top 100 in total offense; but, USC facing 8/10 opponents rated #69 or lower in total offense might be helping it's #50 overall total defense ranking too. USC's offense looks elite, Oregon's offense looks near elite, Oregon's defense looks elite (to near elite) and USC's defense looks really about right on FBS average, and the game is at Autzen. My initial guess is Stein and company may have a spring in their step this week. USC's front has been described as "more athletic than physical" and on the back end I guess they have been using a lot of cover one with man-to-man. Stein should be open to attack any way he chooses.

In the trenches, interesting to look at some of the dire preseason predictions about the OL starting three first year portal transfers (it wasn't here but certainly was pushed by at least one well known Duck site): On paper, offense predicts 3,260 yards rushing at 14 games (2,157 currently). Last year, without a single first year transfer portal OL, Oregon rushed for 2,211 yards in 14 games. From 4.4 ypc to 6.6 ypc. Sacks allowed are also down from 1.50 per game to 1.22 per game. ATQ often brings up those successful Cristobal OL season (and they were good) but: 2019: 14g, 2482 rush @ 5.1, 1.79 sack 2020: 7g, 1167 rush @ 5.0, 1.57 sack 2021: 14g, 2833 rush @ 5.4, 1.71 sack 2025: 14g, 3260 rush @ 6.6, 1.22 sack (predicted)

Rumors swirling of as many as 4 guys out on offense Saturday, anyone else? I guess it has hit some of the bigger Duck forums, Scoop Duck, Ducks Rising (plus Reddit): "Dak is out, Harkey out , Davison will play and Sadiq is questionable. This is info from a insider forum"

Couple of nice drives in the first quarter 7-7. I'm with GeotechDuck. 🙂

Season opener, going to try to avoid being too harsh until we see Shelstad return. Glad to hear Kwame seems to be ok (it looked like a bit of a knee hyperextention which AI tells me can vary quite a bit in severity but if there isn't a lot of pain, swelling, or bruising it is a good sign, as is being able to walk on it soon after). Generally felt ok about the two new guys at forward, Pryor (6-7) and Stewart (6-9), to go along with Evans (6-10). I see Simpkins averaged 16.4 at Elon last year on 42/37/76 shooting. Clutch drive for the game winner. If he can consistently bring something similar, I'm not without optimism. Not really plays to be praising, but sort of fun to see Demir effortlessly bouncing guys around (there is a guy on Ege? Nope no more). 🙂