AnotherOD

Hard to not disagree. It is sort of the nature of the balancing act in college football at QB? If the point is, getting down to the #4 QB is so unlikely it never matters, then I would tend to disagree. If the point is, if we get down to the #4 QB and we are probably screwed anyway, I would tend to agree. One only needs to back to 2007 and again in 2008 (and a nod could be given to 2015), to find the point. In 2007, Dixon famously went down at Arizona and turned to Leaf, who also got banged up. Heading into UCLA, Leaf tried to go but left early in the game due to injury. On to #3 Cody Kempt. Kempt proceeded to perhaps have the third worse line at QB (in a meaningful game) in modern Duck history: 6-23 for 52 yards with 0 TDs and 2 picks. The Ducks turned in the second half to #4 QB Justin Roper who went to have probably the second worst QB line (in a meaningful game) in modern Duck history: 1-5 for 8 yards with 1 pick and sacked twice. Oregon, averaging 41 ppg and 506 yards of offense, was the first team UCLA (5-5) shut out in 22 years 0-16, holding Oregon to 148 total yards on 78 plays (yes less than 2 ypp). This wasn't exactly a footnote kind of outcome as Oregon entered the UCLA game still #9 in the nation. In 2008, Oregon started the year 3-0 but Justin Roper hurt his knee late at at Purdue. Oregon turned to Masoli, who actually looked largely in control and Oregon jumped out and looked very solid handling what turned out to be a 12-1 Boise State team. Mosoli gets knocked out with a penalized hit that is absolutely (and still is) avaliable on YouTube and was really just plain poor stuff. Oregon turns to Chris Harper, a very highly touted young QB recruit from Kansas at the time, who goes on to have perhaps the worse QB line in a meaningful game for a modern Oregon QB with 0-3 for 0 yards and 2 picks and a sack. Oregon then turns to #4 QB Darron Thomas (who plays pretty well but can't quite lead a comeback with a pick at 3:47 left really helping seal the deal - it could be argued however having a #4 with a pulse that day actually almost brought a comeback against a very good team). I give 2015 an honerable mention as Oregon entered the season with 2 QBs and a rFR (Mahalak) and a tFR (Jonsen). Adams starts but gets hurt at Michigan State. Lockie manages the next game against a not so hot FCS team in Georgia State team (6-7) and Adams returns. Adams gets knocked out at half in the bowl game with a HUGE 0-31 lead and Lockie proves absolutely ineffective in moving the ball (at all - even alittle) and TCU roars back from down and completes in OT what I believe was the biggest comeback in bowl history at the time. His second half (and OT) line is 7-15 for 36 yards and 0 TDs and O ints. Lockie manages one 17 yard completion on the day so the rest of his line is 6-14 for 19 yards or about 3 yards per completion. Oregon had at that time a #3 and decided not to use him when Lockie was absolutely struggling. It had two freshman, one with a year in the system, and wouldn't give either a chance despite the game collapsing, on that day, having a #3, let alone a #4, was absolutely was a thing.

A few years back I think the NCAA added the "Collision Rule" (8-7) which made nearly any significant contact at the plate by the baserunner to the catcher above the waist an out, unless the player is clearly sliding toward the base. The rule basically defines contact above the waste as an illegal attempt to dislodge the ball. As SmithRiver points out, I think if tagged out, there would have been obstruction. Taking a quick look at 8-7, there doesn't seem to be anything covering if the act of obstructing directly leads to a runner contacting the catcher above the waist (so I guess replay looked first to the runner having responsibility to approach the catcher in a full slide, not starting a slide, I don't know?). I guess now in this situation a player must potentially take the out and hope for obstruction rather than risk hitting the catcher up high. Tough to teacher a player to do. Sort of reminds me of the early years of targeting in football where players just had to learn they could no longer do certain things? Even if the catcher is doing it wrong, the baserunner needs to first make sure they won't contact up high (which I'd agree isn't always easy when a catcher is crouching down to try for a tag).

Not a softball expert but it clearly looks like obstruction to me. Catcher, if they decide to try to participate in a play on the runner at the plate, from what I can tell, are required to allow the runner a clear path to base, especially when they don't yet have the ball. It is a bang-bang play but from the replay the ball is hit, the catcher takes a step or two and sets up with one foot clearly blocking the plate and doesn't move. The Duck runner know she is dead but completes the slide resulting in contact during and after the tag. Unnecessary contact from what I understand the rule was changed to prevent from happening. I get that some don't like a runner who was out by a mile being changed on replay for a tying score; but, it appears to me a clear rule every D1 sotball catcher should know backwards and forwards? And I am sure they do. Just a case in the speed and pressure of the moment, a play was made by the defense to try to stop the run in a manner not allowed. If one, "swallows the whistle" what is the point of the rule? Do we just apply it randomly when we decide "Ok, in this case I decide I want to apply it"? By obstucting a not horrible but not exactly insignificant amount of contact happened on a play where the runner should have been out by 10 feet. Be glad to consider different perspectives.

Things looking up at the RB spot. Spring ball tends to be a bit "hit or miss"; but, one thing I will be keeping an eye on is 6-0 and 220 pound RB Jordan Davison. Don't think ther are too many (if any) high school football conferences across the country any higher thought of than California's Trinity League and he was that conference's offensive MVP. His school, Mater Dei, I believe was pretty a near consensus #1 in the polls after finishing an undefeated 2024 (including USA Today and MaxPreps). Add to that 2026 commit, Tradarian Bell, currently a "high four star", who, while I no longer watch a ton of tape, sure looked good in his. High school RB from Texarkana who has run a 10.51 in high school? Sounds a bit like another Duck RB LaMichael James, also from Texarkana, who displayed a lot of speed, who posted a 10.50 as a high school junior.

My unofficial, though not really thought that well over, list of the top 12 players the Ducks will miss the most in 2025 (and be hardest to replace - to which where the Ducks are at - and who they have waiting - to me is a big factor): 1. Josh Conerly Jr. 2. Derrick Harmon 3. Jamaree Caldwell 4. Tez Johnson 5. Jabbar Muhammed 6. Dillon Gabrial 8. Ajani Cornelius 8. Jordan Burch 9. Jordan James 10. Terrance Ferguson 11. Kobe Savage 12. Nishad Strother Be interested in other thoughts?

I know I may reference him a bit too much; but, Hythloday over at ADQ has a long break down about DM's season at UCLA. To summarize, as we all know, Chip was no fan of recruiting; and, towards the end of his tenure, by many appearances he sort of threw up the flag on OL recruiting; and, each season had become "I've got a full ride to UCLA and Westwood and Santa Monica and nearly any OL with a pulse wanting to transfer will be ok". He eventually found a few. He wasn't that interested in OL talent when he wasn't attracting much and I imagine felt he could (mostly) outscheme nearly all deficiencies, primarily through a cutting edge run game and a passing set that wasn't much more complex than a really solid high school team (that is, significant passing routes at key times mostly only had one "live" passing route. If that route was unavailable the QB was to scramble. Worked well with Thompson-Robinson for a long time but was a poor fit for Moore). From the article: "For the purposes of contextualizing Moore’s play in 2023, it’ll suffice to understand just two things about the surrounding offense Kelly put him in: first, the offensive line play was atrocious, as per usual Kelly did no recruiting or development and attempted to just plug in multiple poorly performing transfers with typical results." When presented with the chance to move off DTR and develop a playbook for a potentially elite pocket passer? Chip mostly was checked out and wanting to either be fired or not asked back. He knew what he had and where it would go and was willing to cash the checks until UCLA stopped paying. I've linked the analysis of Moore's season at UCLA before and anyone interested should check it out. From what I have seen, the UCLA tape actually looks promising. Of course, some struggles but a lot to like. Quacking the Roster: QB Transfer Dante Moore WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM Film review of Moore’s 2023 season at UCLA

Really a fan of Tez and enjoyed his time at Oregon. While probably not "kids" after several years in college, they still are pretty young dudes. I even kind of get what he was trying to say there (and probably express some frustration); BUT, when you get your behind kicked like that in a game on that stage, I think about all you can do is tip your hat to your opponent. If you are prepping your guys for combine interviews, you tell them to stop there. If you must say more, talk about where your own team might have fell short, not direct anything that might be perceived as a slight towards your opponent. I can see little good coming from trying to change the perception of a throttling that everyone who watched saw with their own eyeballs.

Jon has it right. Maybe Connerly should find a die hard Duck fan to run his takes by before publishing. As great as it looks on paper, few covering 134 teams, as I have seen, has the pulse of a program as well as that a 10-15 percenter, who lives and dies with the team that knows their stuff.

Maybe a bit interesting that the Cowboy's RB coach is expected to be slotted at between $400,000 and $450,000. Tashard Choice is already making $700,000 at Texas and Samples I believe is set for a bump to $650,000 at Oregon if he stays. Certainly it isn't always about the $ as both coaches interviewed for the job with likely knowledge of what Jerry Jones and Dallas is going to be offering. Just more to where college football is at, the $ involved, and the continued blurring line between college and the NFL. All that said, I could very much see how coaches might tire of recruiting, NIL, the portal, having to work year around on roster retention, and the realities of player poaching. Life in the NFL, with its other non-monetary benefits, might be looking more and more appealing.

"Probably more than anything else it's the players." "The defense he coached in his last year had 8 (EIGHT) players drafted, 5 (FIVE) in the 1st round. Two of the five 1st rounders were D Tackles, that is my dream for the Ducks: NFL D-Tackles." From what I've been able to gather, the "Mint" or "Tide" front is working as it is supposed to. Against opponents Oregon was thought to have a fair talent advantage, it was fine, and the defensive numbers all good. It mostly looks overall to me to be an attempt at an updated "bend but don't break" with a few pressure tricks up front. The problem, that appeared pretty clearly this year against teams with more talent, is the only way the scheme appears to continue to function well, is to have even more talent in key spots. A rather simple "secret sauce". In the front, I'd say 3-4 future NFL players with at least a pair of first or second round draft choices, at least a pair of round 1-3 LBs, and a sprinkling of later round draft choices (or at least athletic very good and experienced college guys). Also have to throw in a day one or early day two lock down CB (and at least one future NFL safety). Without the personel, there appear to be holes all over the place talented teams will exploit. Lesser talent seems often to be scrambling around, often confused, a few (to often several) steps late. The schemes answer to defend that is just largely have great players who cover those gaps. Five DB base defenses have taken over college football, so it isn't like other variations aren't getting roasted as well. I think what we are really seeing play out it this particular version just is extra "bend but don't break" and the current front DL/LB guys, while good, haven't been Georgia (when they were good) kind of good. In the bit of Georgia I watched this year, I actually felt I saw some of the same sort of struggles at times (especially I guess with some injuries). Birch, Harmon are thought to be day 1-2 talent, Matayo certainly looks to be future NFL lock, Caldwell and Muhammed are supposed to be late picks, Bassa seems to have played his way into being picked at the Senior Bowl, and BB is now seriously being looked at as a draftable player next year. That is at least 7 NFL guys along with 4 seniors. It does seem like the defense, on paper, probably should have been a bit better even against the offensive talent of tOSU, Penn State, and Boise State. As others have commented, I think the "problem" lies in the key front 6 positions plus NB, where there were only 2 likely day 1-2 choices (and I'm not convinced one of them ever got back fully healthy). If the Ducks are sticking with it, as I am sure they will, the answer is more top, top talent, especially in the front 6-7 (preferably guys also grown up in the system). Or, I guess, continue to have success defensively against most of the schedule and find a way to outscore everyone else.

"Not to mention, they way we lined up against Washington last year was an open invitation for last year's Michigan to simply pile drive our defense (the Fuskies used a similar defensive front against the Wolverines in the Natty last year and got obliterated - until that game I thought Washington would win hands down). I personally believe it's time to overhaul the entire philosophy on defense. I don't get paid for these things, and I'm just a hack, but I totally believe the best coaches in the business completely know how to take down Lanning 's scheme on defense. It's just apparent to me we can out physical lower grades teams, but when it boils down to elite competition, they know exactly who to attack, and what Formations to use to neutralize a pretty damn set of talented players." Well argued. Appreciate!

Early in his career, I wonder a bit if "five star" Donte Manning might not be a better fit moving to safety. Someone can correct it if in error; but, he came from Kansas in a high school league, that wasn't exactly known for throwing the ball all over the place. At the next level, possibly he needed to be developed a bit. Just a guess, my thought is Manning had such advanced physical tools, the risk at keeping him at CB was worth the potential risk of moving him to safety (that is, finding a "decent" elite level safety being easier than finding the same at CB). Reed had a fine year at CB; but, when it comes to NFL URFA, if anyone if gonna get a call, I imagine Manning would get more calls than Reed. Manning just never seemed to get past being a bit too "handsy". Tools were there but it never quite came together. It will be interesting to see what happens to Offord, lock down CBs are a thing, but so are, in modern college football, a fifth DB who can do a lot of things.

Appreciate the article. I think I've now made two attempts on different boards to defend Helfrich's recruiting. Was it great? No. Not entirely necessarily wanting to rehash it all again; but, Helfrich, in large, wasn't a failure due to recruiting at face value. He landed a fair percentage of highly rated kids, who, for the most part, were highly sought after. Helfrich's failure, IMO was having an unusual amount of busts with kids rated very highly, who just about everyone on the West Coast was after; and, recruiting a fair amount of highly rated guys who just ended up character misses. I did another post elsewhere about Mario, where I argued, based on relatively substantiated offer lists, that the "star chaser" label was a bit overblown. The "stars" Mario chased, were "stars" most other programs were also chasing. His "failure", if one wants to call it that, was getting a class with a lot of kids rated about 150-300 and not enough kids rated inside the top 80, based in large part to the "pan out" ratio versus "star points" ratio for recruits at a given rating point. Mario recruited well, just, given coaching deficiencies, was gonna need need more in the top 80 if he was going to make the next step. Top 80? Take a look at Ohio State 2024.

The two things that jumped out to me were: Top 200 recruits starting: Ohio State: 82% Oregon: 27% Top 80 kids starting: Ohio State: 56% Oregon: 18% If we consider the coaching staffs roughly even. In a rematch on a neutral site, where are you gonna place your money? It's not, IMO, heresy to tip one's hat and say talent won that day. That is sort of why I added the thought, even without potential future transfers, in two years, Oregon's starting 22 could look a lot like tOSU's this year. Could, of course, just interesting to look at. I look at the numbers and Will Howard was the lowest rated starter tOSU put on the field this year, the lowest. #128 spots behind DG, who many felt could be the difference in the game. Arguably, IMO, in that position, ultimately, it becomes a bit less about scheme, motivation, or intangibles, and more about the guys who will be making the plays.

Blue Chip Ratio has been around college in some form since modern recruiting sites and rankings boomed along with the internet. It is most referenced in that no team has won the college football National Championship without a Blue Chip ratio of over 50% (basically at least half their roster or more need to be made up of four or five star recruits), which means in any given season, only about 15 teams have a shot. With the expanded playoff, I imagine this stat will continue possibly indefinately. Heading into the playoff, it was tOSU with a ratio of 90% (#1) and Oregon at 76% (#5), so tOSU loaded but Oregon with a puncher's chance. I was looking at some recruiting rankings of just the starting 22 for each team. Some interesting things popped out; and, perhaps some reasons to feel good about what Dan Lanning and company did this year (and looking forward perhaps two years). First point, I only used high school rankings. Transfer rankings seem a bit all over the place (and I don't think adjusting the ranking of a kid who has overachieved a bit or not lowering a higher ranking for a kid who mostly sat at his first school, etc., etc. adds a bunch to the basic argument). High school rankings seem a bit more established (and represent perhaps the better measure of overall athletic potential at their position). Just my thought heading in. So, tOSU's starting 22 for the Rose Bowl, with their overall national and star ranking. Going in, while "five stars" always stand out (usually 32-35 each cycle), I tend to favor emphasizing top 80 kids, as high four stars often pop (nearly as much as top 35 kids). 01. Jeremiah Smith (5 star): #1 02. JT Tuimoloau (5 star): #4 03. Jack Sawyer (5 star): #6 04. Caleb Downs (5 star): #7 05. Emeka Egbuka (5 star): #10 06. Sonny Styles (5 star): #12 07. Donovan Jackson (5 star): #19 08. TreVeyon Henderson (5 star): #23 09. Carnell Tate (high 4 star): #58 10. Gee Scott Jr. (high 4 star): #66 11. Jordan Hancock (high 4 star): #73 12. Cody Simon (high 4 star): #75 13. Tegra Tshabola (4 star): #104 14. Davison Igbinosun (4 star): #162 15. Tyleik Williams (4 star): #166 16. Lathan Ransom (4 star): #167 17. Carson Hinzman (4 star): #177 18. Denzel Burke (4 star): #199 19. Austin Siereveld (4 star): #302 20. Josh Fryar (3 star): #502 21. Ty Hamilton (3 star): #757 22. Will Howard (3 star): #882 So, a Blue Chip ratio of 0.864, with a remarkable 0.818 top 200 recruits. Oregon. 01. Evan Stewart (5 star): #6 02. Josh Conerly Jr. (5 star) #16 03. Jordan Burch (5 star): #17 04. Matayo Uiagalelei (high 4 star): #47 05. Jordan James (4 star): #164 06. Traeshon Holden (4 star): #187 07. Tysheem Johnson (4 star): #207 08. Terrance Ferguson (4 star): #216 09. Jeffrey Bassa (4 star): #334 10. Iapani Laloulu (4 star): #347 11. Marcus Harper (3 star): #714 12. Dillon Gabriel (3 star): #754 13. Derrick Harmon (3 star): #969 14. Jabbar Muhammad (3 star): #1043 15. Brandon Johnson (3 star): #1395 16. Tez Johnson (3 star): #1467 17. Nikko Reed (3 star): #1941 18. Nishad Strother (3 star): #2776 19. Ajani Cornelius (UR) 20. Kobe Savage (UR) 21. Jamaree Caldwell (UR) 22. Bryce Boettcher (UR) So, a Blue Chip ratio of 0.455, with 0.273 top 200 recruits. I guess this isn't news, tOSU was loaded, I just didn't realize how loaded. 8 five stars and over half their starters top 75 recruits. Oregon, at least according to the Blue Chip ratio, was never going to win the thing with a starting Blue Chip ratio of 46% and 4 full starters UR out of high school. Actually, I would say their is an argument Lanning and company overachieved their overall talent. Add into the equation, I think tOSU had 5 transfer starters and 17 original recruits while Oregon had 14 transfer starters and only 8 starters who began at Oregon, I think the argument looks a bit better (having guys grown up and developed in their system versus guys developed at least in part by someone else in a different system). Oregon went undefeated and won the B1G Championship with as many as half its starters kids it likely would never have offered out of high school. Good news is, just for fun, just based on kids already in the program, Oregon in two years could have a starting roster that looks a lot like tOSU this year. Of course so many young guys likely won't be starting, etc., etc. But, for fun. 01. Darkorian Moore (5 star): #4 02. Dante Moore (5 star): #4 03. Na'eem Offord (5 star): #10 04. Jurrion Dickey (5 star): #22 05. Kodi Green (5 star): #25 06. Brandon Finney (5 star): #28 07. Trey McNutt (high 4 star): #29 08. Elijah Rushing (high 4 star): #45 09. Matayo Uiagalelei (high 4 star): #47 10. Dorian Brew (high 4 star): #50 11. Ify Obidegwa (high 4 star): #52 12. Aydin Breland (high 4 star): #58 13. Jeremiah McClellan (high 4 star): #65 14. Douglas Utu (high 4 star): #72 15. Kenyon Sadiq (4 star): #122 16. Jordan Davison (4 star): #154 17. Jeremiah Johnson (4 star): #161 18. Brayden Platt (4 star): #190 19. Dylan Williams (4 star): #199 20. Iapani Laloulu (4 star): #347 21. Fox Crader (4 star): #349 22. Gernorris Wilson (4 star): #388 Also: Jahlil Florence (4 star, #157), Devon Jackson (4 star, #140), Kyler Kasper (4 star, #150), Rodrick Pleasant (4 star, #90), Blake Purchase (4 star, #294), Daylen Austin (4 star, #121), Aston Porter (4 star, #245), Xadavien Sims (4 star, #244), Aaron Flowers (high 4 star, #60), Dakota Fields (4 star #90), Kamar Mothdi (4 star, #215), Sione Laulea (4 star, #2 JC), Cooper Perry (4 star, #131), Nasir Wyatt (4 star, #176), Zac Stascausky (4 star, #261), Gatlin Bair (5 star, #27), Tradarian Bell (high 4 star, #32), Kendre Harrison (5 star, #9), Tony Cumberland (high 4 star, #57), and others. I completely agree with those who suggest a high ranking isn't a guarantee of success; and, I would also agree the fact Oregon in a lot of games it felt in control of, didn't exactly rush to get these highly rated kids some run. But, in regards to recruiting rankings, look at the points allowed by the tOSU defense and their ranking scores. Look forward to thoughts.