AnotherOD

I've always been one to argue recruiting decline sort of gets a bit exaggerated under MH. It's there but I don't put "straightforward decline in recruiting" as a top reason for MH's decline. He got a lot of kids that a lot of top programs were offering. He also had fair numbers with kids rated outside the top 400 (the more "developmental" portion of the classes) turn out ok. What I think was poor under MH was an unusually high percentage of "busts" at the very important top of his classes (Canton Kaumatule, Taj Griffin, Kirk Merrit, Malik Lovette, Jalen Brown, Tyrell Robinson, Travis Jonsen, Thomas Tyner -- for those who want to go there); and, probably an unusually high amount of "bad apples" brought in (Kirk Merrit, Tristen Wallace, Austin Maloata, Fotu Leiato, Torrodney Prevot, Darren Carrington). It could also be argued his last class (2016) was unusually poor, probably poor enough to be marked as concerning. 19 kids and 2 JCs. It only had 3 high school "four stars", Dillon Mitchell of course was very good, the highest rated commit Bryon Young didn't really impact until his senior year, and Tristen Wallace, a guy who managed to get expelled twice before completing his first year at Oregon. Other than Herbert, Dye, and possibly Breeze, not a bunch else. What I remember hearing over the MH era, was he got stuck with sort of a tough hand in recruiting with a pretty old and established staff, who no longer were willing to do much traveling and/or recruiting (traveling being more important for recruiting back then). Greatwood always got his guys; but, beyond that I had heard that Erik Chinander and at times Helf himself were forced to do much of the legwork. To the point of letting Helf go, just one year of 4-8 while giving up 41.4 points per game (126 out of 128) arguably was enough. The defensive highlight of the season was probably holding Utah to 28 points. Allowed 70 to UW, 52 to Cal, 52 to Stanford, 51 to WSU, 45 to USC, 41 to Colorado. That is after finishing 116 out of 128 the year prior. That is not so much a disturbing trend, as it is fall off a cliff. The first MH and Aliotti year (2013) was fine: 20.5 ppg allowed (I recall it was agreed after Chip left NA only wanted to hang around one more year, but wasn't he only like 60 when he left?). My last recollection is one that usually provides some bit of controversy, the name Todd Orlando. 42 year old Todd Orlando had just completed his first season at Utah State finishing #7 in the country giving up 17.1 ppg (replacing Dave Aranda who had moved to Wisconsin). That was after two solid seasons as DC at not exactly football powerhouse Florida International (actually under then HC Mario Cristobal). Orlando was considered a hot name very interested in the Oregon job. Rumors were a belief Orlando would have been a poor fit with Oregon's veteran defensive staff (among others). Now Orlando is controversial because he is most known for eventually flaming out at DC at Texas then USC. However, back then he was a rising name. His defense was strong the next year at Utah State, he moved to Houston where he had a couple good years, then had a good first year at Texas in 2017, before thing started slipping (57th in ppg in 2018 and 65th in 2019 before being fired). He was also known then to run a defense similar to what NA was running in 2013, so the switch wouldn't have been dramatic. Evidence maybe it wouldn't have been a huge "grand slam" hire; but, arguably much better than the 23.6 ppg, 37.5 ppg, and 41.4 ppg slide under DP and Hoke (not even mentioning the 296 yards and 5 TDs rushing and 538 total yards and 42 points given up in the 2015 NC game). Might have even saved MH's job.

Yikes, let's hope not. Since the current Beaver Stadium at Penn State was built in 1960 (in part out of reassembled remains from the old Beaver Stadium built in 1909), Penn State has never given up 45 points at home. Actually, in Penn State's 129 year football history, it has never given up 45 points to an opponent while playing at home. And I am being a bit silly. Penn State has given up 44 at home twice in its history, both recently (Nebraska in 2017 and tOSU in 2022). 🙂 Still, over 40 points may be a tough ask at Penn State. I believe in 30 out of the last 50 seasons, no opponents scored over 30 points in Beaver Stadium all season. I count 5 opponents over 40 since 1960.

Since, 1994 overall, home, and away records (bowls and neutral site games in "away"). LSU (1994-2024): Overall: 279-114-1 (0.708) Home: 171-43 (0.799) Away: 108-71-1 (0.600) Penn State (1994-2024): Overall: 269-121 (0.690) Home: 162-46 (0.779) Away: 107-75 (0.588) Ohio State (1994-2024): Overall: 320-67 (0.827) Home: 192-22 (0.897) Away: 128-45 (0.740) Oregon (1994-2024): Overall: 285-107 (0.727) Home: 170-31 (0.846) Away: 115-76 (0.602) LSU is winning 19.9% more often in Death Valley, Penn State 19.1% at Beaver Stadium, tOSU 15.7% better in Columbus, and Oregon 24.4% better at Autzen.

It certainly can be hard to keep up. I had thought Aston Cozart was at SMU. Cozart so far, a redshirt season at Oregon, then to SMU where he caught one pass in 4 games, and now off to Kentucky, which brought in five portal WRs for the fall (two of the five being on their 3rd school). The QB expected to be throwing to this group (Zach Calzada) himself being on his forth school (Texas A&M, Auburn, Incarnate Word, and now Kentucky).

Looks like at least 40 former Ducks are set on different rosters. From the looks of what appears to be a pretty decent (and usually up-to-date) depth chart site (OurLads), it looks like 14 former Ducks are projected to start and 15 more are listed as second team (though on July 1st it is still early). Projected to start: Dante Dowdell (RB) - Kentucky Emar'rion Wilson (OLB) - Baylor Keith Brown (LB) - WSU Keanu Williams (DL) - UCLA Robby Ashford (QB) - Wake Forest Cole Martin (NB) - UCLA Jaylin Davies (CB) - Oklahoma State Kris Hudson (WR) - Arizona Michael Wooten (OL) - Arizona Avante Dickerson (CB) - Arkansas State Khamari Terrell (CB) - Texas State Brandon Buckner (DE) - Middle Tenn. State Kodi DeCambra (S) - UNLV Luke Dunne (P) - UW Projected second team back-ups: Ben Roberts (DT) - Michigan State Tyler Turner (S) - Baylor Terrell Tilmon (OLB) - Texas Tech Jaylan Jeffers (LT) - UCLA MyKeil Gardner (DL) - ASU Shaq McRoy (OL) - Arkansas Jaxson Jones (DE) - Utah Jabril McNeill (DE) - Troy Johan Miller (OL) - UTSA Johnny Bowens lll (DL) - UTSA Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) - Cal Tevita Pome'e (DL) - Oregon State Sir Mells (DT) - Georgia State Daymond David (S) - Akron Collin Gill (S) - Charlotte Projected third team back-ups: Rodrick Pleasant (CB) - UCLA Jalen Moore (DL) - Pittsburgh Harrison Taggart (LB) - Cal Projected forth team back-ups: Ty Thompson (TE) - Tulane Not listed on current depth-chart: Aston Cozart (WR) - Kentucky Byron Cardwell (RB) - San Diego State Justin Flowe (LB) - UNLV Logan Sagapolu (OL) - UW Colson Brenner (LS) - WSU Dropped down a division: Darren Barkins (CB) - Cal Poly Grant Meadows (K) - Portland State

Wait, I thought Ted was a Husky? [ Sorry I could not resist ]

Hard to not disagree. It is sort of the nature of the balancing act in college football at QB? If the point is, getting down to the #4 QB is so unlikely it never matters, then I would tend to disagree. If the point is, if we get down to the #4 QB and we are probably screwed anyway, I would tend to agree. One only needs to back to 2007 and again in 2008 (and a nod could be given to 2015), to find the point. In 2007, Dixon famously went down at Arizona and turned to Leaf, who also got banged up. Heading into UCLA, Leaf tried to go but left early in the game due to injury. On to #3 Cody Kempt. Kempt proceeded to perhaps have the third worse line at QB (in a meaningful game) in modern Duck history: 6-23 for 52 yards with 0 TDs and 2 picks. The Ducks turned in the second half to #4 QB Justin Roper who went to have probably the second worst QB line (in a meaningful game) in modern Duck history: 1-5 for 8 yards with 1 pick and sacked twice. Oregon, averaging 41 ppg and 506 yards of offense, was the first team UCLA (5-5) shut out in 22 years 0-16, holding Oregon to 148 total yards on 78 plays (yes less than 2 ypp). This wasn't exactly a footnote kind of outcome as Oregon entered the UCLA game still #9 in the nation. In 2008, Oregon started the year 3-0 but Justin Roper hurt his knee late at at Purdue. Oregon turned to Masoli, who actually looked largely in control and Oregon jumped out and looked very solid handling what turned out to be a 12-1 Boise State team. Mosoli gets knocked out with a penalized hit that is absolutely (and still is) avaliable on YouTube and was really just plain poor stuff. Oregon turns to Chris Harper, a very highly touted young QB recruit from Kansas at the time, who goes on to have perhaps the worse QB line in a meaningful game for a modern Oregon QB with 0-3 for 0 yards and 2 picks and a sack. Oregon then turns to #4 QB Darron Thomas (who plays pretty well but can't quite lead a comeback with a pick at 3:47 left really helping seal the deal - it could be argued however having a #4 with a pulse that day actually almost brought a comeback against a very good team). I give 2015 an honerable mention as Oregon entered the season with 2 QBs and a rFR (Mahalak) and a tFR (Jonsen). Adams starts but gets hurt at Michigan State. Lockie manages the next game against a not so hot FCS team in Georgia State team (6-7) and Adams returns. Adams gets knocked out at half in the bowl game with a HUGE 0-31 lead and Lockie proves absolutely ineffective in moving the ball (at all - even alittle) and TCU roars back from down and completes in OT what I believe was the biggest comeback in bowl history at the time. His second half (and OT) line is 7-15 for 36 yards and 0 TDs and O ints. Lockie manages one 17 yard completion on the day so the rest of his line is 6-14 for 19 yards or about 3 yards per completion. Oregon had at that time a #3 and decided not to use him when Lockie was absolutely struggling. It had two freshman, one with a year in the system, and wouldn't give either a chance despite the game collapsing, on that day, having a #3, let alone a #4, was absolutely was a thing.

A few years back I think the NCAA added the "Collision Rule" (8-7) which made nearly any significant contact at the plate by the baserunner to the catcher above the waist an out, unless the player is clearly sliding toward the base. The rule basically defines contact above the waste as an illegal attempt to dislodge the ball. As SmithRiver points out, I think if tagged out, there would have been obstruction. Taking a quick look at 8-7, there doesn't seem to be anything covering if the act of obstructing directly leads to a runner contacting the catcher above the waist (so I guess replay looked first to the runner having responsibility to approach the catcher in a full slide, not starting a slide, I don't know?). I guess now in this situation a player must potentially take the out and hope for obstruction rather than risk hitting the catcher up high. Tough to teacher a player to do. Sort of reminds me of the early years of targeting in football where players just had to learn they could no longer do certain things? Even if the catcher is doing it wrong, the baserunner needs to first make sure they won't contact up high (which I'd agree isn't always easy when a catcher is crouching down to try for a tag).

Not a softball expert but it clearly looks like obstruction to me. Catcher, if they decide to try to participate in a play on the runner at the plate, from what I can tell, are required to allow the runner a clear path to base, especially when they don't yet have the ball. It is a bang-bang play but from the replay the ball is hit, the catcher takes a step or two and sets up with one foot clearly blocking the plate and doesn't move. The Duck runner know she is dead but completes the slide resulting in contact during and after the tag. Unnecessary contact from what I understand the rule was changed to prevent from happening. I get that some don't like a runner who was out by a mile being changed on replay for a tying score; but, it appears to me a clear rule every D1 sotball catcher should know backwards and forwards? And I am sure they do. Just a case in the speed and pressure of the moment, a play was made by the defense to try to stop the run in a manner not allowed. If one, "swallows the whistle" what is the point of the rule? Do we just apply it randomly when we decide "Ok, in this case I decide I want to apply it"? By obstucting a not horrible but not exactly insignificant amount of contact happened on a play where the runner should have been out by 10 feet. Be glad to consider different perspectives.

Things looking up at the RB spot. Spring ball tends to be a bit "hit or miss"; but, one thing I will be keeping an eye on is 6-0 and 220 pound RB Jordan Davison. Don't think ther are too many (if any) high school football conferences across the country any higher thought of than California's Trinity League and he was that conference's offensive MVP. His school, Mater Dei, I believe was pretty a near consensus #1 in the polls after finishing an undefeated 2024 (including USA Today and MaxPreps). Add to that 2026 commit, Tradarian Bell, currently a "high four star", who, while I no longer watch a ton of tape, sure looked good in his. High school RB from Texarkana who has run a 10.51 in high school? Sounds a bit like another Duck RB LaMichael James, also from Texarkana, who displayed a lot of speed, who posted a 10.50 as a high school junior.

My unofficial, though not really thought that well over, list of the top 12 players the Ducks will miss the most in 2025 (and be hardest to replace - to which where the Ducks are at - and who they have waiting - to me is a big factor): 1. Josh Conerly Jr. 2. Derrick Harmon 3. Jamaree Caldwell 4. Tez Johnson 5. Jabbar Muhammed 6. Dillon Gabrial 8. Ajani Cornelius 8. Jordan Burch 9. Jordan James 10. Terrance Ferguson 11. Kobe Savage 12. Nishad Strother Be interested in other thoughts?

I know I may reference him a bit too much; but, Hythloday over at ADQ has a long break down about DM's season at UCLA. To summarize, as we all know, Chip was no fan of recruiting; and, towards the end of his tenure, by many appearances he sort of threw up the flag on OL recruiting; and, each season had become "I've got a full ride to UCLA and Westwood and Santa Monica and nearly any OL with a pulse wanting to transfer will be ok". He eventually found a few. He wasn't that interested in OL talent when he wasn't attracting much and I imagine felt he could (mostly) outscheme nearly all deficiencies, primarily through a cutting edge run game and a passing set that wasn't much more complex than a really solid high school team (that is, significant passing routes at key times mostly only had one "live" passing route. If that route was unavailable the QB was to scramble. Worked well with Thompson-Robinson for a long time but was a poor fit for Moore). From the article: "For the purposes of contextualizing Moore’s play in 2023, it’ll suffice to understand just two things about the surrounding offense Kelly put him in: first, the offensive line play was atrocious, as per usual Kelly did no recruiting or development and attempted to just plug in multiple poorly performing transfers with typical results." When presented with the chance to move off DTR and develop a playbook for a potentially elite pocket passer? Chip mostly was checked out and wanting to either be fired or not asked back. He knew what he had and where it would go and was willing to cash the checks until UCLA stopped paying. I've linked the analysis of Moore's season at UCLA before and anyone interested should check it out. From what I have seen, the UCLA tape actually looks promising. Of course, some struggles but a lot to like. Quacking the Roster: QB Transfer Dante Moore WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM Film review of Moore’s 2023 season at UCLA

Really a fan of Tez and enjoyed his time at Oregon. While probably not "kids" after several years in college, they still are pretty young dudes. I even kind of get what he was trying to say there (and probably express some frustration); BUT, when you get your behind kicked like that in a game on that stage, I think about all you can do is tip your hat to your opponent. If you are prepping your guys for combine interviews, you tell them to stop there. If you must say more, talk about where your own team might have fell short, not direct anything that might be perceived as a slight towards your opponent. I can see little good coming from trying to change the perception of a throttling that everyone who watched saw with their own eyeballs.

Jon has it right. Maybe Connerly should find a die hard Duck fan to run his takes by before publishing. As great as it looks on paper, few covering 134 teams, as I have seen, has the pulse of a program as well as that a 10-15 percenter, who lives and dies with the team that knows their stuff.

Maybe a bit interesting that the Cowboy's RB coach is expected to be slotted at between $400,000 and $450,000. Tashard Choice is already making $700,000 at Texas and Samples I believe is set for a bump to $650,000 at Oregon if he stays. Certainly it isn't always about the $ as both coaches interviewed for the job with likely knowledge of what Jerry Jones and Dallas is going to be offering. Just more to where college football is at, the $ involved, and the continued blurring line between college and the NFL. All that said, I could very much see how coaches might tire of recruiting, NIL, the portal, having to work year around on roster retention, and the realities of player poaching. Life in the NFL, with its other non-monetary benefits, might be looking more and more appealing.