AnotherOD

"Indiana did win its last game played against Oregon; Oregon's 24 to 30 loss to Indiana in 2004 was authored by Indiana coach Gerry DiNardo." That odd 2004 Indiana game (even through the 4-8 Helfrich cave in, Bellotti's 2004 "lost" season, and the 1996 "Stubler experiment") remains one of only two losses by Oregon in Autzen in the last 30 years to teams that finished with a losing record. 2004 Indiana (3-8): 24-30 1996 UCLA (5-6): 22-41 The Indiana story was primarily 7 Oregon turnovers. UCLA 1996 was right in the middle of five straight losses in the middle of the season as teams were running wild on the Duck D. UCLA outgained Oregon in rushing 303 yards to 45 yards (with Oregon missing starting RB Saladin McCullough that day).

Much like Conerly Jr. last year, Moore is young enough to return for another season and still only be 22 when drafted, so with NIL, arguably there doesn't need to be quite as big a rush to the NFL. Two old Pac-12 guys usually come up as "cautionary tales" though. 🤷‍♂️ RB Bryce Love after rushing for 2,100 yards and finishing second in the Heisman, returned to Stanford and had a pair of ACL injuries and fell to the forth round and never had an NFL carry. USC's Matt Barkley, who was thought to be a first round lock in 2011, returned to USC as a possible Heisman favorite and the team dropped to 7-5 and he got a shoulder injury and missed the ND game, Sun Bowl, and NFL combine. Fell to the forth round. Moved around as a backup QB through several NFL cities, playing in 20 games with 7 starts between 2013-2023.

The odd thing is they probably should be 3-3, with three very winnable games left in Sam Houston, Lafayette, and Tulsa. They scored with 1:19 left to lead Fresno State 27-26. They dominated the stats (528 yards to 318 and 30 first downs to 15). The game included six botched special team snaps that led in part to 2 missed PATs and a missed FG. Trailed App State 27-21 in the 4th. Threw an interception in the endzone, got the ball back and drove down to 1st and goal from the App State 3 with 1:58 left. Got stuffed on 4 straight runs (one run initially ruled a TD and reversed). Still got a safety and free kick which they drove down to the App State 25 before throwing a game sealing pick. OSU won the stats again (456 to 354 and 27 FDs to 18). Led Houston by 14 in the 4th quarter. Drove down for a long FG attempt to win with 0:05 on the clock and had it blocked, lost in OT. Won the stats again (though closer: 390 to 352 and 22 to 17). If they managed 3-3, their remaining schedule is (Sagarin): Wake Forest: #75 Layfayette: #188 WSU: #99 Sam Houston: #194 @ Tulsa: #160 @ WSU: #99 What should have been a pretty cozy walk to at least something like 7-5 may well end up something like 2-10.

Not to be a contrarian (and not super holding onto this); but, I'm sorta liking what we are seeing so far (staying mostly status quo). I don't see a huge need to rush Hill/Davison into a lead 20+ combined carries per game (currently they are getting about 10). Davison just needs to keep doing what he has been doing (and he does have like 7 carries of 6+ yards so it isn't all just the super situational short yardage runs). Hill has been amazing as a home run hitter, with a crazy explosive run rate (15 or more yards) of 27.5%. Out of his 26 carries, 9 have gone for 10+ (66, 28, 24, 24, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11). However 10 of his carries (38%) have gone for 3 or less yards (3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 0, 0, -1, -1, and -3). Giving him more carries likely won't increase his explosive rate (as it is about as high as you are going to get); and, we probably see at this stage of his young career more of the tougher yardage runs until he grows into that true #1. Let's say the Ducks play 15 games (we are going to win at least one playoff game this year!). If the rotation is tightened up just a bit, leaning maybe alittle more into Hill/Davidson; and, Hill ends up with a 700 yard season, 600 for Limar, 600 for Whittington, 300 for Davidson, Moore is on pace for at least 300, and the backs that get the rest of the carries (Harris, Riggs, what Hughes has already given, Moga, plus any WR or TE runs) total 400 (I think realistic), that's 2900 total rushing yards. The last 3 years Oregon has rushed for 2211 yards (14g in 2024), 2583 yards (14g in 2023), and 2805 yards (13g in 2022). Last year was down to 4.6 ypc. Stick with what the staff is doing (fresh legs) I could see it back to around 2023's 6.2 ypc. It currently at 6.3 ypc. Probably needs to be noted, while the NCAA team statistics are still working themselves out to closer to where they will finish due to wildly different OOC scheduling -- it still is interesting to see Oregon's 4 FBS opponents are averaging 88th in rush defense (Montana State is #13 FCS). Currently 6 out of Oregon's 7 remaining scheduled opponents are top 30 in rush defense. Hard to predict what exactly that means but I could see an argument for experienced backs helping.

Penn State was pretty crazy today. Thought about them a bit and I came to one major conclusion at least on offense, they really, really miss Tyler Warren. It's seems like stretch that a TE (who actually was replaced by what is considered a pretty good player) could mess up an offense that much; but, one of those loveable thing about the college game, sometimes one player (all the key drive saving plays, all the total production he provided and all the attention he demanded from defenses) can sometimes make that much of a difference. Took me back to Oregon and 1998. Oregon's offense was tearing it up. Rueben Droughns was averaging 7.4 ypc and 165 ypg. Oregon was 60/40 run/pass and scoring 48.5 ppg. In those first 6 games Oregon rushing as a whole was 256 carries for 1445 yards @ 5.64 ypc. After Droughns left, Oregon could no longer run the ball. Not really at all. I think Derien Latimer took over (as Ho-Ching checked out about the same time as RD and he was sitting at only 3.6 ypc). Oregon did try to continue to run the ball and it was just different. Three post-Drougns games were 32 carries for 64 yards, 32 carries for 61 yards, and 38 carries for 31 yards. Oregon eventually had to lean into the pass and turned into 49/51 run/pass. In the last 6 games Oregon managed to salvage 30.2 ppg; but, rushing those games was 219 carries for 494 yards @ 2.26 ypg). 1445 rushing yards in the first six games, 494 rushing yards in the last 6 games and 48.5 ppg to 30.2 ppg just switch out the RB. Not the same as the Penn State thing I know; but, it did make me think of that season.

Defense getting it done.

Odd choice there.

It seems about right I think? NFL betting obviously is known to give the home team 3. I have read home field in college is usually viewed different, with 3 being the baseline but the actual number being between 2 and 6 points. Way back in the day when I used to always grab it (maybe 1998-2008) Phil Steele on top of each team page put that number (if anyone had a good idea what that number actually was, it was probably Phil). Autzen was usually around a 6 point home edge. I'd imagine Penn State has a similar home field number. I haven't exactly read a number given to the development of teams traveling across the whole country for a regular conference game; but, consensus seems to be it's incorporated. Let's say an additional 2.0 points West to East and 1.5 points East to West. Maybe it is more a "situational factor" in pro lines; but, there has to be something greater recognizing Oregon or USC traveling to Penn State is just different than Rutgers or Maryland traveling to Penn State for college kids. So, you figure if both teams travel equal distances and play at a neutral field it would be Oregon maybe about -4.5 (currently PSU -3.5 favorite but without getting the 6 + 2 point bump). Maybe a funny way to look at it but Oregon does appear a neutral site favorite 🤷‍♂️

I have read in a couple places, the going rate to get a five star to visit is $10,000 (if the staff wants an in-person opportunity to steal them). I believe individual recruit's official visits are now unlimited as long as they remain one each per school. If a recruit visits and commits to a place (like Oregon) and shuts it down, he is most likely leaving some large bags on the table. Plus skipping out on several all-expenses paid lavish weekends (and the chance to see some games). 🤷‍♂️ It's good to be a five-star.

"The Ducks have been doing that and it might be just what they need. Adding a body but not committing a body." Seems like a work in progress? I see Theineman with 16 total tackles so far in 4 games. Mostly it seems like his tackles have been more in his traditional role rather than crashing the box (but I could be wrong, and I do think he has been very good). Singleton, Allen, and Allar had 29 carries for 283 yards and 2 TDs at 9.8 yards per carry. The Duck offense won the day; but, it put up 45 and I don't think PSU has ever given up 45 at home (so a repeat offensive performance would indeed be historical). I was thinking about another big body in the box and maybe sometimes a safety crashing. If the defense slows the run and makes Allar to complete 25+ passes and make maybe 8-10 tough throws (without Warren to throw to), and your offense isn't able to save the day, maybe you feel ok tipping your hat and thinking about a rematch?

In the regular season last year the Duck front was only described as being "pushed off the ball" a single time I saw, against Penn State. Penn State returns three of its best starters from that game, gets back a starting RT who was lost for the season in game 10 who is now a RG, in large because the guy who replaced him is returning at RT after being so good in the playoffs he won the spot. They also appear to have a strong blocker at TE and some OL depth. Plus, two future NFL RBs. Their OL pushed the Duck DL in part through effective use of double teams, and often got bodies comfortably into the LBs. If somebody with a more accomplished eye would like to comment that would be appreciated; but, at least to my eye, making moves to "load the box" has been a step the Duck D has largely been reluctant to regularly commit to. I'd like to think steps like "better run fits", "improved eye discipline", etc, etc fixes the gap from last year but don't know it will prove that simple. Overwhelming an opponent with really good players and taking an easy 4+ yards all day I won't say is undefeated (but goes a long way). Taking out a sack and a kneel down, I think 20 of PSU's 32 rushes last year went for 4 or more yards, including 10 plays of 10 or more yards

Beavs at 106 yards offense at just about 4.0 yards per play. 3 completions. Arguably didn't necessarly look super duper but fair results.

Back in the day when RBs were king, Willhite was thought to potentially be a Hershal Walker, Marcus Allen, Eric Dickerson level recruit. He was named the HS player of the year over the likes of Marcus Dupree and Bo Jackson. Some services, back in the Prepstar, Superprep, Parade days had him #1 not just at RB but overall. Shocked the college football world flipping to Oregon on signing day. He had run a 10.5 100 meter and 20.8 200 meter in high school and apparently had dreams of running in the 1984 Olympics in LA, planning to pursue both football and track. Track was not near as big at UW and apparently there was some question whether Don James would really allow Willhite out of Spring practice to fully participate. Stories go when there were rumors Willhite was wavering on his UW committment, the Huskies sent their top recruiter down to Sacramento to lock things up on LOI day (Al Roberts) and he arrived at 7am to a Duck assistant coach (Jim Skipper) already there. Roberts reported asked Skipper why he was there and Skipper told him "He never told me no". Anyway, the short version of the rest of the story is he badly injured his hamstring as a high school senior running track and reinjured it at the opening of his first camp. Couldn't run for months and missed both his freshman football and track season. From there, battled injuries, struggled with "conditioning", and the dreaded "attitude" questions. Never recovered his speed with a top 10.92 100 meter time before leaving track, and ended up a fullback at Oregon, playing more finally as a senior where Brooks himself remarked he "had become a pretty good fullback for our team". Ended up his Oregon career with 182 carries for 731 yards (4.0) and 2 TDs. I think I put Willhite at the top because it was during a period of Oregon football I guess is sometimes referred to as "the suffering" from about 1967 to the Independence Bowl in 1989. Oregon went 89-146-6 over the period and without a bowl. The decade prior they had gone 59-38-5 with a Sun and Liberty Bowl. Willhite in 1982 was supposed to be the level of recruit that was going to turn things around. Rich Brooks famously was quoted during a preseason press session in 1987 ending his period of questions with, "Today is the first time in six years I haven't had a Kevin Willhite question." (After the laughter apparently died down, Rich went on to say, "I'm here to tell you Kevin Willhite is a graduate of the University of Oregon and I'm proud of that. He was not a total failure like some writers have said in the past several years." The Willhite saga was a pretty huge deal.)

It certainly will help if the Duck offense comes out and scores TDs on its first three drives like last season. It would take quite a while to look up; but, I'd imagine that isn't something Penn State gives up at home often to anyone either.

As a Duck fan, I was pretty happy to escape the 2024 B1G Championship game with a "W" and no major injuries and at the time mostly looked forward to the playoffs rather than read a bunch of post game discussion. I recall some talk (including here on OBD) that was essentially "exactly how bad is this rush defense?" Penn State indeed ran for 297 yards on the Duck defense at 8.7 ypc. 10 of their 34 rushes went for 10+ yards, including rushes of 41, 32, 26, 24, and 22. That's with Harmon, Caldwell, Burch, Uiagalelei, Tuioti, Boettcher, and Washington in its front. That's against a Penn State offense that wasn't exactly hiding what it wanted to do. On the year, it was going to run one of their two RBs: Allen or Singleton (or run TE Warren); or, throw a pass to one of those 3, a fairly remarkable 64.5% of the time (581 out of their 901 running attempts or completed passes were to Warren, Allen, or Singleton). In the championship game, that hit 74.1%. Despite entering the 4th quarter down 14, PSU didn't exactly abandon the run, keeping a roughly 50/50 split. Does the defensive scheme look like it will approach PSU differently this year? Does the talent so far look much better with the Duck box defenders? PSU had more success moving Oregon's front with double teams last year than any other opponent, will that repeat itself? Does the staff appear less loath to commit more resources to the box if it needs to than in the past? Many questions.