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Why Oregon will Flourish in 2023 and Beyond

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J.D. Pickell explains why Oregon will flourish.  Going to the BIG plays into the Oregon national brand.

 

 

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What Pickell is describing here must be exactly what the officials at Oregon are hoping for.  And the three billboards (ugh!) that Oregon lit up for 'Bodacious Bo' are a large part of that.  It's a gamble, tho.  A very expensive gamble.  Unless Phil Knight endows Oregon with an endowment the likes of which universities like Ohio State, Michigan, and other huge schools have enjoyed for decades, tiny Oregon (whose entire student body is barely as big as the underclassmen at some of the large universities and who play in a market a fraction the size of those schools like USC and such) will be overwhelmed by those huge programs.

 

I wonder: is there anything in the contract to enter the Big-10 that requires Oregon to eventually double the size of Autzen (doubt that can be done) or build a new, larger arena to accommodate double the fan base?  And where would that fan base come from in a market like the Willamette valley?

Edited by Mic
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On 9/3/2023 at 8:03 AM, Mic said:

What Pickell is describing here must be exactly what the officials at Oregon are hoping for.  And the three billboards (ugh!) that Oregon lit up for 'Bodacious Bo' are a large part of that.  It's a gamble, tho.  A very expensive gamble.  Unless Phil Knight endows Oregon with an endowment the likes of which universities like Ohio State, Michigan, and other huge schools have enjoyed for decades, tiny Oregon (whose entire student body is barely as big as the underclassmen at some of the large universities and who play in a market a fraction the size of those schools like USC and such) will be overwhelmed by those huge programs.

 

I wonder: is there anything in the contract to enter the Big-10 that requires Oregon to eventually double the size of Autzen (doubt that can be done) or build a new, larger arena to accommodate double the fan base?  And where would that fan base come from in a market like the Willamette valley?

College football is no longer college football. College has little to do with it anymore and it just become football. 

 

Oregon has been forced to take their brand global to quench their desire to become a true blueblood progr'm. This started over 2 decades ago.

 

Ducks are a name brand and one of the most recognizable progr'ms in the country. The market size of the Willamette Valley has very little impact on Ducks future success.

 

Ducks are right where the want to be and climbing. This is no accident, very much intended, very much on purpose. 

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On 9/3/2023 at 8:15 AM, Log Haulin said:

Ducks are a name brand and one of the most recognizable progr'ms in the country. The market size of the Willamette Valley has very little impact on Ducks future success.

That market has to be sustainable. Beyond the generosity (and lifetime) of Phil Knight.  I respectfully disagree with you on the impact of a market the size of large neighborhoods in places like Los Angelas, Seattle, Columbus, Miami, and Dallas. 

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Phil and others have set-up an investment fund to cover ongoing fixed costs of maintaining and enhancing facilities. And it might even cover coaching salaries.  This happened over a decade ago now, IIRC?  

 

Division Street is a separate entity to cover NIL expenses.  So as long as operating revenues (tickets, merchandise, media rights, etc.) can cover operating expenses, the Ducks will be fine. This is why the B1G had to happen.

 

I think the Autzen work will be enhancements to generate more revenues as much as an expansion.  Think more luxury boxes, expanded food and beverage options (seat service sections), gameday experience packages, full weekend packages with shoulder events before an after a football/basketball game.   If they add seats it will be a modest amount.  Too many people (like me) have given up season tickets for the 70inch at home, and the Valley is growing but slowly compared to larger urban centers.

 

But, if the B1G means the return of more day games, and these longer weekend packages are available, including an RV spot, or other new accommodations close to campus, then I would consider season tickets again.

 

Ducks will be fine.  One hitch I see coming though, is a debate about Title IX.  Essentially mens football and to a lesser extent, men's hoops, are the only reliable profit generators.  Those profits fund the other sports.   Someone is going to test that legally.  I suppose worst case Uncle Phil et al, establish an endowment for DAF to cover those costs?

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On 9/3/2023 at 8:34 AM, Mic said:

That market has to be sustainable. Beyond the generosity (and lifetime) of Phil Knight.  I respectfully disagree with you on the impact of a market the size of large neighborhoods in places like Los Angelas, Seattle, Columbus, Miami, and Dallas. 

You have not been around when we have discussed this extensively already.  Oregon has the seventh largest global brand among colleges, with a bigger worldwide audience than Alabama, Georgia and USC.  This is not about the Willamette Valley, it is about the massive audience beyond.

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

The Ducks have one of the biggest fan bases in the nation. But where do they stack up among the most beloved teams in college football?

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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No, you're right Charles, I wasn't. But will the big mid-western teams be content to play in a stadium of 54,000 or is there something in the contract Oregon signed committing them to a substantive expansion in the future?  And could Oregon fans fill one of, say, 80,000 or more, even if teams from the midwest travel 20,000?

 

Perhaps withTV rights it's a moot point?

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On 9/3/2023 at 1:28 PM, Mic said:

No, you're right Charles, I wasn't. But will the big mid-western teams be content to play in a stadium of 54,000 or is there something in the contract Oregon signed committing them to a substantive expansion in the future?  And could Oregon fans fill one of, say, 80,000 or more, even if teams from the midwest travel 20,000?

 

Perhaps with TV rights it's a moot point?

Again...we have been discussing this for the past year.

 

First, it is being hinted that Autzen will be upgraded in the near future to handle more seating, and that if donated by private donors and from the season ticket holders like myself--(charged 1,500 last time) that extra revenue for the athletic department will come from the B1G connection, and thus we would have the seating to handle big Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State fan bases.

 

And to repeat; this is not about stadium size when discussing the media contracts, Mic.  These are two different things, and the primary driver of TV is actual eyeballs on the set and Oregon is one of the best at attracting those eyeballs.  Come 2024....our audience will REALLY grow with all the B1G fans who are curious and want to watch/scout Oregon on TV.

 

This forum will also have many new members from B1G teams who will be very welcome, if they are anything like the good people we have had here already.  The Big-12 people wore out their welcome, and many were banned...

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Mr. FishDuck

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I was checking stadium capacities of the big-10 schools (just cause I had nothing better to do at the moment) and Oregon would come in around 10 or 11 of the teams there now.  Throw in USC, UW and some others and they drop down the list even further.

 

But, they do compare well with schools like Northwestern, Minn, Rutgers and Illinois.  So I guess stadium capacity isn't all that important.  Still, it will be interesting to see what happens to ticket sales when, say,  Michigan or Ohio St come to town with 25,000 fans, (if they ever do) leaving room for ~ 30,000 Duck fans.

 

Ah, the dynamics of NCAA, CFB football.  

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On 9/3/2023 at 5:18 PM, Mic said:

I was checking stadium capacities of the big-10 schools (just cause I had nothing better to do at the moment) and Oregon would come in around 10 or 11 of the teams there now.  Throw in USC, UW and some others and they drop down the list even further.

 

But, they do compare well with schools like Northwestern, Minn, Rutgers and Illinois.  So I guess stadium capacity isn't all that important.  Still, it will be interesting to see what happens to ticket sales when, say,  Michigan or Ohio St come to town with 25,000 fans, (if they ever do) leaving room for ~ 30,000 Duck fans.

 

Ah, the dynamics of NCAA, CFB football.

You might have missed previous posts about Oregon expanding North side of Autzen (on page 5 titled 'Time to Add Seating at Autzen?' and on page 4 about Big Ten stadiums titled 'Getting to Know the Big Ten Football Stadiums.'  Oregon has the North side of the stadium on their radar to expand/remodel.  Which is important due to BIG fans travel well and the possibility of hosting one of the early playoff games.  Hope this helps.

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