Bill Connelly. ESPN+, Ranks the Week 4 Power 5 Undefeated Teams

[Jon Joseph]

First, thank you Charles and all of the moderators for working to get OBD back up. We are blessed with a great site and great members; I've missed your articles, posts, and comments. Let us all not mess this opportunity up.

 

Bill Connelly, ESPN+ (paywall) ranks the undefeated teams through Week 4 (one-third of the regular season is already gone? Wow!) and also shows each undefeated team SP+ strength of schedule (SOS) to date. Moving to a 12-team playoff in 2024 makes it more imperative, IMO, for the playoff committee to use and adhere to a publically disclosed SOS format and not allow every committee member to use their eye test.

 

Look at the SOS rankings to date and you will see how disparate are CFB schedules. A few teams have tested themselves and others have played against thin air. 

 

In addition to showing a team's ranking and SOS, I have used Conolly's SP+ index, as did Bill in the original article, to show the next game a ranked team faces with less than a 75% SP+ probability to win the game. I have also taken the liberty of re-ranking the Top 10 undefeated based on SOS to date.

 

1. Washington - (94) - Week 7 vs. OREGON

 

2. Georgia - (108) - Week 12 (!) at Tennessee (The schedule was a breeze without the SEC being down.)

 

3. Ohio State - (53) - Week 8 vs. Penn State

 

4. Michigan - (118) SMH -Week 11 at Penn State (Michigan has two regular season battles. In its next 7 games, OREGON plays 5 teams currently ranked in the AP Poll Top 25. But it's a fair fight for the final Final 4, right?)

 

5. OREGON - (99) - Week 7 at UW (the Ducks move up from Week 3 ranking of #11. 2nd in scoring O and 15th in scoring D.)

 

6. Texas - (41) - Week 6 vs. Oklahoma - But AP #24 Kansas may not be a pushover this Saturday in Austin.

 

7. Oklahoma - (98) - Week 6 vs. Texas

 

8. Penn State - (72) - Week 8 at Ohio State

 

9. Florida State - (29) - Week 7 vs. Syracuse

 

10. USC - (127) - Double SMH - Week 7 at Notre Dame

 

11. Miami (70) - Week 7 at UNC

 

12. Utah (17) - Week 5 (Friday night FS1 at 9 Eastern) at Oregon State

 

13. Duke - (85) - Week 5 vs. Notre Dame - Hello, College Gameday! And it's not yet CBB season.

 

14. UNC - (77) - Week 6 vs. Syracuse

 

15. Syracuse - (128) Shame on you, Orange! - Week 5 vs. Clemson

 

16. Louisville (126) - Week 5 at NC State

 

17. Kentucky (130) SEC, SEC, SEC! - Week 5 vs. Florida (BTW, for sustained mediocrity, Mark Stoops is paid $8.6M a year.)

 

18. Washington State - (51) - Week 6 at UCLA (No easy day in the Pac-12!)

 

19. Missouri - (59) - Week 6 vs. LSU

 

20. Kansas - (96) - Week 5 at Texas (Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Louisville, Kentucky, and Kansas - Is it oblong ball or round ball season?)

 

21. Maryland - (119) - Week 6 at Ohio State

 

Top 10 By SOS -

 

1. Utah - 17

2. FSU - 29

3. Texas - 41

4. Wazzu - 51

5. Ohio State - 53

6. Mizzou - 59

7. Miami - 70

8. Penn State - 72

9. UNC - 77

10. Duke - 85

 

One thing is for certain, Pac-12 contenders SOS will be moving on up.

[candyduck]

Let the PAC 12 carnage begin.  Likely this Friday in Corvallis?

[Desert Duck]

On 9/26/2023 at 10:19 AM, Jon Joseph said:

First, thank you Charles and all of the moderators for working to get OBD back up.

 

Here-here! 100%. Thank to Charles & his team.

[DanLduck]

I don't understand how the Pac12 teams have such low rated SOS rankings. 5 or 6 are in the top 25.

Oregon has 5 remaining games against top 25. How are they at 99?

[Tandaian]

It is strength of schedule is of games played to date, not for the season.  All the PAC 12 teams SOS will get better as they play each other.