Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted February 17 (edited) I enjoyed pondering over Chip Kelly's move from HC at UCLA to OC at Ohio State. A range of opinions from, 'He's washed up!' to 'He is a perfect fit.' One of the fun things about kicking the pondering can down the road preseason is that the proof will be in the pudding. It's far too long before the 2024/25 season kicks off but it will kick off and Chip will either come through or he won't. DUH! B1G average point production per game in 2023: 1. Penn State - 36.2 / 2, Michigan - 35.9 / 3. Ohio State - 30.5 Ohio State has room for improvement on O. Pac-12 average point production per game in 2023: 1. OREGON - 44.2/ 2. USC - 41.8/ UW - 36. Before you go all Portland State and Liberty, Ohio State put up 63 points vs. W. Kentucky in 2023. However, playing with no O against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl did not help the Buckeyes cause on O. The Pac-12 in 2023 and for decades has been a more prolific scoring conference than the more line-of-scrimmage grind-it-out-on-the-ground B1G. (in addition to the preferred style of B1G play, some of this has to do with the B1G weather.) But this is somewhat of a stereotype. When Fields and Stroud were playing QB at Ohio State the Buckeyes passed more than it ran the football. On the other hand ... From the NCAA website, below is where the Pac-12 and B1G teams ranked nationally in 2023 in the number of plays run from scrimmage. 133 G5 teams and P5 teams results were ranked. The change to the timing rules? It did not have much effect. The average number of plays from scrimmage dropped from 66.9 a game in 2022 to 68.7 a game in 2023. For comparison purposes, USF finished No. 1 with an average of 82.1 plays a game. No. 133 Kentucky finished with an average of 56.1 plays a game. (One reason why the A+M fans were not thrilled about the Aggies potentially hiring Mark Stoops.) The difference of an average of .5 plays per game can mean the difference between Indiana ranked at 79 and Maryland ranked at 85. And, the number of plays a team runs does not directly correlate to success on the field. Washington finished ranked 89 with 66.5 plays a game; Michigan finished 124 with 62.7 plays a game. As I recall these two played for the title. Also, quick-strike offenses will run fewer plays. However, from the below data, it is clear that overall the B1G plays at a slower pace of play than the Pac-12. (Plays a game = PAG.) Pac -12 Rankings: 8. UCLA 76.6 PAG. No. 1 in the Pac-12. By comparison, Ohio State ranked 93, No. 8 in the B1G, running 66 PAG. Up from 62.7 PAG in 2022 with NFL Rookie-of-the-Year Stroud at QB. It isn't the same Chip as when he was at OREGON but even with a heavy dose of run plays at UCLA, Chip runs a lot of plays. I expect that we will see much of the same from Ohio State in 2024. Our OBD was ranked 78, running 68 plays a game and still putting up 44 PAG. How about them Bird Bombs! Last in the Pac-12 was Oregon State, ranked at 104. 60.7 PAG. Ranked 110. In the B1G, Michigan State was tied with Minnesota, running 64.5 PAG. Next to last in the B1G just ahead of Nebraska which ran 64 PAG. Further proof that J Smith will likely be a great fit in East Lansing. The total ranking for the Pac-12 is 614, a 51.16 ranking on average. 14.9 above the 66.5 median PAG ranking. B1G Rankings - Purdue is 2023 B1G No. 1 coming in at 31, with 73.2 PAG. Purdue did not go bowling. As noted above, the Cornhuskers were far from the cream of the PAG crop, ranking 117. This may be one reason that Nebraska plays in (and loses) so many close games. The total 2023 ranking for the 14-team B1G is 1178, an 84.14 ranking on average. 17.64 below the median, for a total difference of 32.54 lower than the Pac-12. The above is more art than science. But it is at least in my less-than-mathematically-inclined opinion, an example that the pace of play and the number of possessions are both likely to be less in the B1G than in the Pac-12. And Chip, who likely continues to believe that time-of-possession is a meaningless stat may have to refine his thinking. Especially when playing games in November in the Midwest. I do expect that in 2024, we will see Ohio State run more plays from scrimmage. Will Oregon come close to 44 points a game? It will be a B1G blast! Vandalize the Vandals! Edited February 17 by Jon Joseph 1 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notalot No. 2 Share Posted February 17 O. Thanks Jon. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Moderator No. 3 Share Posted February 17 When Chip arrived at Oregon, Bellotti was looking to make large scale changes to the offense. Chip’s uptempo spread offense with zone reads was innovative and explosive. Looking at time of possession you would think Oregon was trounced. I have to wonder how much control that Ryan Day gives Chip. With a few quick 3 and outs does he get a nervous twitch about his new OC? Chip will have the highest rated players he has ever coached. However, they were already expected to compete for a National Championship before Chip arrived. Is nothing short of a Natty the measuring stick of success. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 4 Share Posted February 17 Correcting an error: The average number of plays in 2023 Dropped from 68.7 to 66.9. Double Duh! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 5 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2024 at 3:53 PM, Drake said: When Chip arrived at Oregon, Bellotti was looking to make large scale changes to the offense. Chip’s uptempo spread offense with zone reads was innovative and explosive. Looking at time of possession you would think Oregon was trounced. I have to wonder how much control that Ryan Day gives Chip. With a few quick 3 and outs does he get a nervous twitch about his new OC? Chip will have the highest rated players he has ever coached. However, they were already expected to compete for a National Championship before Chip arrived. Is nothing short of a Natty the measuring stick of success. After the School Up North Did It, 'yes' it is Natty or bust in Columbus. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 6 Share Posted February 17 College football offenses continue declining in key categories resulting in lowest-scoring season since 2009 - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Dennis Dodd takes one last statistical look at the 2023 college football season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 7 Share Posted February 18 The NCAA, driven by network appetite for more revenue, shortened the game by running clock after after first downs. I don’t have the figures but to me the games seemed much longer to me because watching commercials that continue to seem longer drive me crazy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 8 Share Posted February 18 Just Ducky. Check out the Dennis Dodd article above. The new clock rules did shorten not all but many of the games. In this respect, the new rule worked as designed. More games fit closer into the media's short-allotted CFB broadcast windows. Unless CFB is willing to shorten half-time, the games will still not fit into the allotted broadcast time as do NFL games. Also, the NFL has a much better review process than does CFB. Another way to shorten regular season games would be to give each team a chance in OT starting from the 40-yard line, not the 25, and if the game is tied after 2 OTs it's tied. IMO, the proposed 2-minute warning is up for consideration so more advertising can be sold. I like that CFB does not completely mirror the NFL rule book. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike West No. 9 Share Posted February 18 Fantastic post Jon! I for one believe Chip is more dangerous as an OC than HC. No longer encumbered with CEO duties, Chip can spend more time finding ways to carve defenses up. Let me tell you, I don't know many offensive minds that can put you in a quick hole better than Chip Kelly. I also believe incoming QB Will Howard will thrive under Kelly. He is the right mix of the kind of QB Kelly appreciates most-a very gifted runner that converts on third down very effectively (my opinion here). IMHO, Chip is going to be a menace in the B1G. He is so good he can pick up the tempo or slow things down at the drop of a hat-especially with a guy like Howard. He has two killer RBs, and if he puts them both in the backfield, that will create massive headaches for defenses (especially if both are willing to block for each other). The most difficult thing to figure out is how well Howard will pass to a pretty good group of WRs (especially deep). Ryan Day has a damn good defense that will be able to hold leads, and now he has an OC that can put a lot of pressure on many a defense. So now, our fearless leader -the one and only Dan Lanning- is faced again with the challenge of dealing with not just one, but possibly two teams with superior talent, and at least one with a loaded coaching staff to boot. Not to mention Lanning's challenge of duplicating and exceeding the fairly successful performance on defense last year. Can't wait until the Spring Game! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 10 Share Posted February 18 Good stuff! I still call this a knee-jerk, borderline panicky over-reaction by tOSU. Their only problem last year was Michigan was better and they lost a close game on the road. That calls for overhauling everything? Making significant, optional changes to a team that went 11-1 in the regular season? We’ll see how smooth an unneeded transition goes. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 11 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2024 at 4:56 PM, JabbaNoBargain said: Good stuff! I still call this a knee-jerk, borderline panicky over-reaction by tOSU. Their only problem last year was Michigan was better and they lost a close game on the road. That calls for overhauling everything? Making significant, optional changes to a team that went 11-1 in the regular season? We’ll see how smooth an unneeded transition goes. Jab, good post. But Day was going to give up play calling to focus more as a CEO on the overall team (like Harbaugh) and he brought in O'Brien as his OC. O'Brien went to BC and was replaced by Kelly. O'Brien, unless Day returned as the play-caller, the switch to Kelly was needed. Other than this, there has been little change to the tOSU coaching staff. And not a lot of roster turnover except for McCord leaving, and I believe he was encouraged to leave, and the 6 quality transfers brought on board. As to compatibility between Day and Kelly, Kelly was Day's OC when Day played QB at New Hampshire, both men grew up in Manchester, NH, and Kelly brought Day along with him to Philadelphia and SFO and recommended Day to Urban Meyer. Additionally, Kelly had a very good relationship with tOSU OL coach Frye at UCLA before Frye was hired away by Day. Kelly knew he could not match the tOSU offer for Frye and Day approached Kelly before making the offer. Michigan defeated Ohio State 3 seasons in a row by winning both LOS and running the football. Day knows this and he also knows that Chip is going to run the ball. I see nothing here that does not look like a fit. Day did a great job of keeping quality draft-eligible juniors, except for Marvin Harrison Jr., in Columbus. Harrison will of course be missed but WR is not a position of concern at Ohio State. This retention of draft-eligible players is akin to what Michigan did in 2023 after being upset by TCU in the playoffs. Michigan won the title last season with a 54% Blue Chip Roster (BCR,) the return of almost all of the Wolverines draft-eligible underclassmen, and what amounted to a 2-game schedule; at Penn State and Ohio State. Ohio State in 2024 will have an 80%+ BCR and a 2 game, 3 if you want to add the game at Penn State that last defeated tOSU in 2016, to the game at OREGON and the Michigan game, schedule. I don't see any 'knee-jerking' going on and I think Kelly instead of O'Brien is positive. In 2024, pre-playoff, Ohio State is the only team OREGON will face that will have a higher-ranked roster. OREGON has a win over Day but in the B1G conference, Day has lost only 3 games as head coach, all to Michigan. The season after the loss to the Ducks, Day brought in Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to be his DC, Ohio State's D under Knowles in 2023 was one of the top 5 Ds in the country and will likely be better in 2024. The stars are aligned for tOSU in 2024 with Puddles having a B1G shot to stop a Buckeyes dream season. It will be up to Danno and friends because I do not see Ohio State beating itself via coaching dissension or otherwise. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 12 Share Posted February 18 (edited) We shall see. I know they have a history together, but this is a total role-reversal of that relationship. Coaching chemistry and relations with players matter more than ever, and they have disrupted themselves twice. I would call it a direct reaction to losing to Michigan 3 straight years and Day is feeling the heat. tOSU was one TD away from 12-0 and they’re letting Michigan live in their head rent-free. Be exactly like us making changes directly because of losing to UW 3 straight. Edited February 18 by JabbaNoBargain 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
