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Twelve Team Playoff = Ten Complications to Wade Through

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The implementation of an expanded CFP may come with unforeseen complications

 

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I'm ok with auto bids for the playoff ... Not with seeding.

 

Should the Big 12 champion get an auto bid? Sure. 

 

Should that team get first round bye just because they are the Big 12 champ? No. 

 

The B1G and SEC going to dominate this format for better or worse. This current format is designed to appease as many parties possible. 

 

It does increase access to the playoff but the reality is that access does not create true contenders. Just because the Big 12 has a bye doesn't mean they'll sniff at the championship. 

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Complications that will result in a different playoff format come 2026.

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On 5/3/2024 at 11:11 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Complications that will result in a different playoff format come 2026.

And or the abolishment of conference championship games. Championships should go one of two ways.  

 

1. Regular season champ based on record but this has the problem that conferences are so big now that this won't always give a satisfying result and may result in two conference champions if two teams don't play but have the same record. 

 

2. Build the conference championship games into the actual playoff format. It would make for some unique bracket formats but could be interesting. 

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My wish would be conference championships being eliminated, no byes, seeding would be by lottery, and every game would be a neutral site bowl game.

 

How is that for a level playing field! Just shows how far reality is away from a fair randomized opportunity.

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DM, a terrific idea to lose the conference champ games. The teams that reach and play in the conference champ game, win, and receive a 1st-round bye will play 16 games. The loser of the conference champ games and the at-large teams will play 17 games. 

 

And a conference champ game could knock out a team with a shot at the  8th through 11th seed which will cost a conference millions of dollars. But ESPN and Fox would have to agree to eliminate the conference champ games and would likely want to lower the current media deals with a conference champ game. These games draw large audiences in the SEC and the B1G. But, this could be tit-for-tat for expanding the field to 16 teams. 

 

Another thought I have had that pales beside your idea is to play a 'real' spring game vs. an FCS opponent that would count as the first game of the 12-game regular season. The little guy gets paid and no FCS teams are allowed to be on a Power 4 schedule. 

 

Something has to be adjusted. In an article on CBS yesterday, Dennis Dodd and the CFB folks he interviewed wonder if projected high draft picks will sit out playoff games! They also wondered if NIL deals are predicated on a player participating in every game if the player is healthy. This concern is another reason why I expect to see playoff revenue shared with the players. 

 

In 2026 I will not be surprised to see a 16-team field with the two teams in the champ game playing four post-season games and the top eight seeds playing at least one home game.

 

The playoff field has expanded but I believe this will give the committee a more difficult task than did the 4-team playoff.  

Edited by Jon Joseph
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On 5/3/2024 at 12:34 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

The playoff field has expanded but I believe this will give the committee a more difficult task than did the 4-team playoff.  

More difficult, but less risk of missing who could have won it all. So not as critical.

 

The bye is the only thing keeping the conference championships relevant, and I think that is the only reason the byes exist. If it wasn't worth a bye you'd see starters benching themselves if coaches didn't do it first.

 

So if they dump the bye and go to 16 teams then they should do away with the conference championships 

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On 5/3/2024 at 12:34 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Something has to be adjusted. In an article on CBS yesterday, Dennis Dodd and the CFB folks he interviewed wonder if projected high draft picks will sit out playoff games! They also wondered if NIL deals are predicated on a player participating in every game if the player is healthy. This concern is another reason why I expect to see playoff revenue shared with the players. 

Maybe there should be a "prima donna tax", where if a player sits out post season games they forfeit a % of NIL monies or something similar.

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Solar, good point. But being the 11th team in the field instead of sitting on the bench will mean millions of dollars for a conference's coffers. You can bet the house that fans of teams that finish barely out of the 12-team field, especially SEC fans, will not be going silently into that good night. Differences in schedule strength including OOC games and in-conference will give disgruntled fans reason to beef. And the teams most likely to be impacted will be B1G and SEC teams. 

 

The settlement of the House case should it happen, will materially ramp up the cost of participation for every athletic department. Playoff revenues will matter. I expect that down the road, teams that make the playoffs and earn the money will receive a greater slice of the revenue than conference teams that do not qualify. This is already the case in the ACC. 

 

House has the potential to sink the NCAA. It's fitting because Grant House was a swimmer at ASU. (Sorry!)

 

Giving the ACC and B12 champs seeding preference with the two being seeded in the top 4 and receiving a first-round bye even if they win the conference title with an 8-5 record, and even if they have a comparative lousy SOS will, I hope, lead to a 16-team field in 2026 with the top 16, except a G5 participant not in the top 16, and seeded according to the committee's final ranking (if a committee is still making the rankings.) 

Edited by Jon Joseph
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On 5/4/2024 at 1:15 PM, anyotherduck said:

Maybe there should be a "prima donna tax", where if a player sits out post season games they forfeit a % of NIL monies or something similar.

I imagine if a player is not judged unfit to play by a team doctor, not his doctor, that the player will not be paid.

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On 5/4/2024 at 10:15 AM, anyotherduck said:

Maybe there should be a "prima donna tax", where if a player sits out post season games they forfeit a % of NIL monies or something similar.

Those are 3rd party contracts and cannot be influenced by anyone in the NCAA or any university. 

 

Though this could be addressed in two ways. 

 

1. Short term and fastest way is that the bowl games payout NIL money to all those who participate as the bowl game gets use the players NIL to promote the bowl game. You could even make this more interesting by the bowl game paying out each team a base and then giving the winner more. 

 

Some prize money might incetivize some to play instead of sitting out. 

 

This is the carrot. 

 

2. The stick of trying to restrict money for players who opt not to play cannot happen yet. It feels imminent that colleges will begin to pay their players directly and at that point colleges would probably have something set up regulating pay in their contracts.

 

Something like players receiver X for being active participants. You shouldn't punish the kid who doesn't see the field because they aren't good enough but they do everything asked of them. And a player opting out of a bowl game would exclude them from receiving pay for that period. 

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On 5/3/2024 at 12:34 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Another thought I have had that pales beside your idea is to play a 'real' spring game vs. an FCS opponent that would count as the first game of the 12-game regular season. The little guy gets paid and no FCS teams are allowed to be on a Power 4 schedule. 

Just to share that article with others who might be interested. 

 

FISHDUCK.COM

The Spring Game is just a glorified scrimmage. It’s something all fans know, but we still get excited about the prospect of seeing new Oregon players show off…

 

 

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With a 12-team playoff, does a team schedule up OOC, or schedule down? The same questions apply to the B1G as apply to the SEC but with nine conference games instead of eight the concerns are not on par.

 

THEATHLETIC.COM

SEC teams' nonconference scheduling is in a holding pattern while they wait to see what the conference schedule format will be.

 

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On 5/4/2024 at 11:47 AM, David Marsh said:

Just to share that article with others who might be interested. 

 

FISHDUCK.COM

The Spring Game is just a glorified scrimmage. It’s something all fans know, but we still get excited about the prospect of seeing new Oregon players show off…

 

 

My local alma mater SOU has already gotten this figured out:

 

SOURAIDERS.COM

Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. at Raider Stadium.

 

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On 5/5/2024 at 1:27 PM, noDucknewby said:

My local alma mater SOU has already gotten this figured out:

 

SOURAIDERS.COM

Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. at Raider Stadium.

 

Sake and sushi for all! Thanks for the post.

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On 5/4/2024 at 12:14 PM, Jon Joseph said:

With a 12-team playoff, does a team schedule up OOC, or schedule down? The same questions apply to the B1G as apply to the SEC but with nine conference games instead of eight the concerns are not on par.

 

THEATHLETIC.COM

SEC teams' nonconference scheduling is in a holding pattern while they wait to see what the conference schedule format will be.

 

I could see the battle between the Power 2 being about how many conference games are required and I can see the SEC giving ground and pushing their conference schedules to nine. But it will come at the cost of them being more able to schedule lesser opponents.

 

The reality is that outside of the Power 2 any OOC games will be with effectively G5 teams. The Big 12 and ACC are G5+ at this point.

 

And lets be honest with ourselves as Duck fans, I know many are upset about scheduling Oregon State and maintaining a home and home with them as if it were a conference game but the reality is that they will soon be G5 status in terms of their roster. They may have already fallen there now. Maintaining the Civil War right now gives the illusion of Oregon scheduling a non-conference game with a Power 5 program but the reality is that the Beavs won't have that power for much longer.

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