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Charles Fischer

Oregon's Defense: Stats DO Lie...

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Oregon's defensive stats look...undesirable, but the key element are turnovers (done well at) and points allowed.  At 22.40 points per game allowed--the defense is giving the Ducks a real chance at winning.

 

 

Noah Sewell on the Blitz_Oregon Football Twitter.jpg

Mr. FishDuck

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Puzzling? This is not like Nick A's D having to hurry back of the field after a quick Ducks score.

 

Ducks stop rate YTD is in the 80s. Stop rate = Opposing offense punts, turns the ball over, or turns the ball over on downs.

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Looking good Ducks!!!

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One thing to consider about this defense is their ability to stop on 3rd down. Yes part of the reason this defense has defended so many plays is impart due to the offense sputtering way to much but this defense has been pretty abysmal when it comes to 3rd down conversion. currently they are ranked 109th in the nation with an opponent 3rd down conversion coming at 44%. Defenses ~top 30-35 teams are stopping opponents at a clip 10% lower or at 34ish %. Then pair this with our 127th ranked 2 opponent 4th down conversions allowed per game and oregon is now having to defend even more plays per game.

 

finally the red zone defense is ranked at 72nd allowing scores in the red zone at 84% of the time. 

 

Look this defense has its bugs, new scheme, a million injuries along the middle/inside linebacker positions. our nickel is out and more that i am forgetting. The sad thing is our best defense was probably against stanford but the offense was so bad that they couldn't keep it up. Overall this defense isn't bad, but they are also part of their own problem. I'd bet if they were just average(especially on 3rd and 4th downs) this defense would be considered elite. 

 

I like rob Mossley, he has pretty accurate information but we also can't forget that he works the university as the editor of goducks and will likely have a very positive spin on the team.

 

also I am glad to be back on FD. it's been a crazy 2-3 weeks at work. 

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I totally agree with Utah Duck's observations. Watching this year's defense has been maddening at times because they play well on 1st and 2nd downs, but allow far too many 3rd down conversions causing the grinding and gnashing of my teeth.

 

The good news for the future is that KT#5 and some other key players were unable to play due to injury or suspension for a good portion of the season so far. They were as close to a complete unit as they have been vs UCLA and, if that trend continues, I look to see their statistic vastly improve over the rest of this season.

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On 10/25/2021 at 10:49 AM, UtahDuck said:

I am glad to be back on FD. it's been a crazy 2-3 weeks at work. 

 

UtahDuck!  I was about to drop an email to say that "I've missed you!"  Your analysis is always so welcome...

Mr. FishDuck

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On 10/25/2021 at 12:14 PM, Charles Fischer said:

 

UtahDuck!  I was about to drop an email to say that "I've missed you!"  Your analysis is always so welcome...

Thanks Charles! I just closed some big deals at work and then we had a conference to attend over the tail end of last week. I've missed football. I've had to record a bunch of games and have only had time to watch the ducks. I'm excited to go and watch the AZ-UW game and OSU-UT game hopefully soon. 

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In 2019 the Oregon total D was ranked 22nd.

In 2021 they are ranked 84th.

Arizona is ranked currently at 52nd.

 

I don't work for Rob Moseley, so...

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On 10/25/2021 at 12:52 PM, nw777b said:

I don't work for Rob Moseley, so...

 

Not any "Critical Analysis" done at Oregon's own "Pravda."

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 10/25/2021 at 8:46 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Puzzling? This is not like Nick A's D having to hurry back of the field after a quick Ducks score.

We have more of the problem where our offense might get off the field because they are stone cold and can't move the ball. No time on the field and no points... worst of both worlds.

 

Oregon's offense is in a weird place right now in terms of tempo. The offense can be very efficient when its hot and move the ball pretty quick and score pretty quick. However, even at their quickest they are no where near the same pace as the blur. The offense is much slower between snaps and this isn't entirely a bad thing because with a relatively inexperienced team the worst thing you can do is have people lined up wrong and not on the same page as to what play is being run.... But... we are also not running a true ball control and grind down the clock kind of offense. 

 

MC would like the ability to ball control the game away that much is certain. However, more often just continuing to score more points would get the job done just as well and more effectively. Our pseudo ball control offense tends to either leave too much time left for the opposing offense to score AND not leave enough time for us to make another drive if they score. Case and point... Cal, UCLA and Stanford.

 

This leads to the defense needing to end the game which is tough. 

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