Marsh Power PAC Rankings - Week 8

[David Marsh]

I didn't do my Pac-12 power rankings last week, I was just too busy, but for those of you interested here they are for this week. Please feel free to disagree and argue with me because these are purely opinions based off how these teams look, rather than purely their records. I also haven't had a chance to watch every single game with a Pac-12 team this week so I am looking more on highlights and lowlights. 

 

1. Oregon (6-1, 3-1) - Oregon is back on top. This Oregon team is far from perfect and far from dominant but they may still turn into something special. Also being a one-loss team at this point in the year has to count for something, even if the majority of the wins are only by one score. 

 

2. Oregon State (5-2, 3-1) - Oregon State is going to make a bowl game this year for the first time since 2013 and it will probably be a decent bowl game too. This Beaver team is looking scary at the moment and they play hard. The game formally known as the Civil War is going to be special this year that's for sure, it may even determine who wins the Pac-12, and not just the North but the whole conference. 

 

3. Utah (4-3, 3-1) - Utah went down in a fairly close game against Oregon State. However, they are a team on the rise and putting together all the pieces. Right now this is the team I'd put money on to win the Pac-12 South, but the South is so crazy that in reality I probably would regret that bet this weekend because Utah plays UCLA, and that game may determine who wins the Pac-12 South. 

 

4. Arizona State (5-2, 3-1) - Well this team feels about right between Utah and UCLA right now. They beat UCLA but were beaten quite badly by Utah. Against opponents who are physically more dominant than them they have been beaten, or at least teams from the state of Utah. 

 

5. UCLA (5-3, 3-2) - Beaten a couple times in conference play but not out yet. UCLA can still win the Pac-12 South and it all starts this weekend against Utah. If UCLA beats Utah then they just need ASU to lose another conference game and they are in. Though it might just come down to Oregon State beating Arizona State as the big determining factor as to UCLA's divisional fate. All UCLA can do right now is win and hope. 

 

6. Stanford (3-4, 2-3) - Stanford isn't a good team which makes the fact that Oregon lost to Stanford hurt all the more. However, Stanford can probably beat out Washington this weekend, especially since Washington is going to have to travel and that continues to be a major problem for this Washington team. Stanford's coaching stability also has them placed ahead of WSU for at least this week. 

 

7. Washington State (4-4, 3-2) - Washington State was actually putting together quite a run this season. They looked awful early on but after getting hammered by USC and Utah they have really turned their season around. They lost to BYU by only three points this last weekend, which is better than what ASU, Arizona and Utah can say about their match-ups. However, why they are in the bottom half of the PAC right now is purely because they have lost five coaches, including their head coach, due to not being compliant with Washington State Vaccination requirements (this is NOT a political statement it is simply a fact). The real test for WSU comes this week when they play Arizona State and get the opportunity to prove whether or not this team can continue on without so many of their coaches. If they can prove they are still the team with the rising stars then I will happily bump them up a couple spots. 

 

8. USC (3-4, 2-3) - USC will not make a bowl game this year. At best I see them finishing the year with five wins at the moment and those two wins coming from Arizona and Cal. However, I can absolutely see Arizona or Cal picking off USC, both of those teams have coaches they can play for and certainty in their future, neither Cal or Arizona will be firing their head coaches after this year. USC could surprise the entire conference and go on a winning streak but that isn't who this team is right now so that is unlikely to change. 

 

9. Washington (3-4, 2-2) - Well it turns out Jimmy Lake can coach as well as he can recruit. This Washington team isn't all that good but that doesn't mean they should be discounted for a second. This team plays better at home than away for the most part. They are 1-2 for away games on the year, and yes that one win came against Arizona where they almost lost. Washington has a very favorable schedule for a third year in a row where they don't have to leave the comfort of their home stadium too often and they get Oregon at home for the second time in a row, Washington couldn't field a team last year because they all caught Covid which gave Oregon the de facto win as Oregon got to play in the Championship game by default because Washington effectively forfeited. However, Oregon will have to enter Husky Stadium and show out, which I think they will. 

 

10. California (2-5, 1-3) - What to make of Cal. First off their record sucks. However, this Cal team hasn't lost by much when they have lost. Their worst loss of the year came against Washington State, otherwise all their losses have come at one score. This Cal team can certainly win a game or two left on their schedule. Cal's remaining schedule is Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA. On that entire list I see Cal being able to get wins against Arizona and Stanford. However, I don't think it is unthinkable that if given some luck Cal could run the table, though highly unlikely. 

 

11. Colorado (2-5, 1-3) - Colorado was steam rolled by Cal and really doesn't have any sense of offense this year. They are better than Arizona but that doesn't say much. 

 

12. Arizona (0-7, 0-4) - Arizona plays hard but they just simply aren't that good. The big question this year is can they steal a win this year? They almost beat Washington but almost doesn't count. However, the Pac-12 is nothing if not chaotic and there are three games I see a realistic chance they could steal a victory against USC, Cal or WSU are really the three best chances left for Arizona. I find myself with a bit of a soft spot for this Arizona team just because of how bad they are right now. 

 

Again this is just my take... please disagree with me all you like. I do enjoy the conversation. 

[Jon Joseph]

These rankings Mr. Marsh are mellow. 

 

Hopefully, Arizona can winless out and cement that #130 ranking?

 

Oregon has met expectations to date. All others but Oregon State have failed. The biggest 'F' goes to UW.

 

Hats off to 4-0 BYU with a game left vs USC; a team that has taken the LOS away from Los Angeles.

[Charles Fischer]

Gosh...looking at the top two teams does my heart good.  Now to keep it that way!

 

We love your work David, so THANKS.

[1Ducker1]

I think I would place Cal ahead of the Fuskies.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/25/2021 at 5:30 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

I think I would place Cal ahead of the Fuskies.

 

Washington beat Cal in the head-to-head game.

[David Marsh]

On 10/25/2021 at 5:30 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

I think I would place Cal ahead of the Fuskies

I would love to do that.... Though as Charles said above Washington did beat cal in a head to head. However, that isn't my only factor.

 

Cal just hasn't been able to finish many games. If they can get a few more wins then maybe. 

[1Ducker1]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:16 PM, David Marsh said:

I would love to do that.... Though as Charles said above Washington did beat cal in a head to head. However, that isn't my only factor.

 

Cal just hasn't been able to finish many games. If they can get a few more wins then maybe. 

Cal to me is similar to losing as the Ducks are to winning. I place the Huskies lower because they lost to Montana. But you and Charles are right they did lose to the Huskies. Which is really weird to me. the PAC is not doing well this year thats for sure.

Edited October 26, 2021 by 1Ducker1

[nw777b]

The Ducks are bowl eligible. Reminds me of when Taggart asked Phil Knight if Nike sold bowling shoes. I can't help but wonder if ol' Slick knew he was on his way out to collect a big check.

[David Marsh]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:32 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

Huskies lower because they lost to Montana.

This is absolutely true and I love it! 

 

Though if Washington were to play Montana again today I think Washington would come out winning by a touchdown or two. Washington has grown as a team and they will be a better team when we face them than they were when Montana faced them. 

 

Granted... I think Oregon is going to be a better team too. 

[1Ducker1]

The interesting thing about rankings is that some teams get better and some get worse as the season goes by. Then there are the days that a team will just have a very very bad day which can skew the whole ratings thing. 

[David Marsh]

The SI Power Rankings

 

Mine are similar but they do love Arizona State slightly more than I do... just throwing out another power ranking for funsies. 

[30Duck]

It's great at the top with the Ducks and Beavers, too bad the Huskies can't be 12, that number just fits them perfectly.

[Jon Joseph]

Love this feature David, thank you.

 

I think this poll is perfectly representative of how Pac-12 teams stack up. 

 

In regards to the P5 conferences, even with Clemson down, the Pac-12 has a solid lock on 5th place. Oregon is the only team in the top 25. OOC the Pac-12 went 9-16 vs FBS competition, with Notre Dame at Stanford yet to be played. The conference suffered 2Ls vs FCS opponents. 

 

6 SEC teams are ranked. 5 B1G teams are ranked. 4 B12 teams are ranked. 2 ACC teams are ranked. 2 AAC teams are ranked. 2 Independents are ranked and BYU is 4-0 vs the Pac-12.

 

The only conference team that has exceeded expectations is Oregon State, -1.5 Saturday at CAL.

 

The only conference team recruiting at a championship level is the Ducks. A 5* USC DL commit just de-committed and is headed to Georgia.

 

The conference is a national laughing stock with most expecting the Ducks to take at least 1L and for the conference yet again, to miss the Playoff. 

 

Yet, the conference 'leadership' decided not to expand. To add a P5 OOC game instead of moving into Texas and into the Central time zone. Instead of moving into the massive Dallas and Houston media markets. Instead of eliminating a P5 competitor. A competitor that has since added 4 quality programs to its diminished ranks. Add BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to the 8 remaining B12 teams and even without OK and TX the B12 will be a better, deeper CFB conference than the Pac-12.

 

Now, should the 'leaders' of the Pac-12 decide to expand, where can the conference go?

 

With the decision not to expand, how much financial growth will the conference see from the next round of media negotiations? What is the future, if there is one, for the Pac-12 Network with the conference standing pat?

 

In my opinion, the decision not to expand 'at this time' made by the conference powers that be on August 26, 2021, was a terrible business decision. A decision that likely ends any hope the conference had of ever again being a real competitor in P5 college football.

 

In 2021, I think the Ducks have a great shot to go 12-1 and make the Playoff. For the sake of the Ducks and the conference this best be the case.

[David Marsh]

On 10/26/2021 at 10:42 AM, Jon Joseph said:

With the decision not to expand, how much financial growth will the conference see from the next round of media negotiations? What is the future, if there is one, for the Pac-12 Network with the conference standing pat?

If I were to make an educated guess is that George K doesn't want to expand right now because he rather pursue the Alliance as a route to increase their leverage in media negotiations. The bigger problem in their expansion calculations is anyone they bring into the conference needs to expand the revenue enough to basically pay for themselves. I don't think there are many schools that make sense to really bring in from the remnants of the Big-12. 

 

I do think the Pac-12 should be more aggressive and look at picking up some key schools but I'm not sure which schools would bring in the revenue the Pac-12 needs. 

 

Lets hope Oregon can finish the year in the top 10 and another Pac-12 or two is ranked. The Pac-12's lack of a 2020 season has really shown just how far behind we are from the other conferences at this point. 

 

Change for change sake isn't going to help the long term health of the Pac-12... but we do need something to change. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/26/2021 at 2:05 PM, David Marsh said:

If I were to make an educated guess is that George K doesn't want to expand right now because he rather pursue the Alliance as a route to increase their leverage in media negotiations. The bigger problem in their expansion calculations is anyone they bring into the conference needs to expand the revenue enough to basically pay for themselves. I don't think there are many schools that make sense to really bring in from the remnants of the Big-12. 

 

I do think the Pac-12 should be more aggressive and look at picking up some key schools but I'm not sure which schools would bring in the revenue the Pac-12 needs. 

 

Lets hope Oregon can finish the year in the top 10 and another Pac-12 or two is ranked. The Pac-12's lack of a 2020 season has really shown just how far behind we are from the other conferences at this point. 

 

Change for change sake isn't going to help the long term health of the Pac-12... but we do need something to change. 

 

David, taking Tx Tech. OK ST, TCU and Houston, would immediately, upon their entry to the Pac-12, significantly bump up subscriptions to the Pac-12 Network. Likely get the network up on DirecTV and perhaps entice FOX to take over ownership and operation of the network. 

 

I see no way that The Alliance will result in the ACC, B1G and Pac-12 combining as a group to sell their media rights. The ACC is tied into ESPN until 2036 and the B1G has enough clout on its own.

 

The B12 and its 4 new members will now assign their collective media rights to the new B12 media deal. This takes these schools off the table as expansion candidates, at least in the near future.

 

I think passing on expansion in favor of picking up an extra P5 OOC game was a tragic mistake with potentially devastating consequences for the Pac-12. You cannot tell me that in the long run OR ST and WA ST have the media clout of OK ST, TX TECH, TCU and Houston.

 

With its 4 new members I will not be surprised if the new B12 scores a media rights deal equal to or greater than that of the Pac-12? BYU has a nationwide following. Orlando and Cincinnati are both good sixed media markets. Houston is a huge media market.

 

I very much hope I am wrong. But in big business if you have a chance to eliminate a viable competitor you do so. You get yourself into position to be one of the P4 16 team conferences.

 

Unless the Pac-12 strikes before the 4 officially become B12 members and a new B12 media deal is in place where is the Pac-12 going to find candidates equal to or better than these candidates?

 

I think the Pac-12 tripped over future dollars to save pennies today?