More on UO/tOSU, Blue Chip Ratios, and the Future

[AnotherOD]

Blue Chip Ratio has been around college in some form since modern recruiting sites and rankings boomed along with the internet.

 

It is most referenced in that no team has won the college football National Championship without a Blue Chip ratio of over 50% (basically at least half their roster or more need to be made up of four or five star recruits), which means in any given season, only about 15 teams have a shot. With the expanded playoff, I imagine this stat will continue possibly indefinately.

 

Heading into the playoff, it was tOSU with a ratio of 90% (#1) and Oregon at 76% (#5), so tOSU loaded but Oregon with a puncher's chance.

 

I was looking at some recruiting rankings of just the starting 22 for each team. Some interesting things popped out; and, perhaps some reasons to feel good about what Dan Lanning and company did this year (and looking forward perhaps two years).

 

First point, I only used high school rankings.  Transfer rankings seem a bit all over the place (and I don't think adjusting the ranking of a kid who has overachieved a bit or not lowering a higher ranking for a kid who mostly sat at his first school, etc., etc. adds a bunch to the basic argument). High school rankings seem a bit more established (and represent perhaps the better measure of overall athletic potential at their position). Just my thought heading in.

 

So, tOSU's starting 22 for the Rose Bowl, with their overall national and star ranking. Going in, while "five stars" always stand out (usually 32-35 each cycle), I tend to favor emphasizing top 80 kids, as high four stars often pop (nearly as much as top 35 kids).

 

01. Jeremiah Smith (5 star):  #1

02. JT Tuimoloau (5 star):  #4

03. Jack Sawyer (5 star):  #6

04. Caleb Downs (5 star): #7

05. Emeka Egbuka (5 star):  #10

06. Sonny Styles (5 star):  #12

07. Donovan Jackson (5 star):  #19

08. TreVeyon Henderson (5 star):  #23

09. Carnell Tate (high 4 star):  #58

10. Gee Scott Jr. (high 4 star):  #66

11. Jordan Hancock (high 4 star):  #73

12. Cody Simon (high 4 star):  #75

 

13. Tegra Tshabola (4 star):  #104

14. Davison Igbinosun (4 star):  #162

15. Tyleik Williams (4 star):  #166

16. Lathan Ransom (4 star):  #167

17. Carson Hinzman (4 star):  #177

18. Denzel Burke (4 star):  #199

 

19. Austin Siereveld (4 star):  #302

 

20. Josh Fryar (3 star):  #502

21. Ty Hamilton (3 star):  #757

22. Will Howard (3 star):  #882

 

So, a Blue Chip ratio of 0.864, with a remarkable 0.818 top 200 recruits.

 

Oregon.

 

01. Evan Stewart (5 star):  #6

02. Josh Conerly Jr. (5 star) #16

03. Jordan Burch (5 star):  #17

04. Matayo Uiagalelei (high 4 star):  #47

 

05. Jordan James (4 star):  #164

06. Traeshon Holden (4 star):  #187

 

07. Tysheem Johnson (4 star):  #207

08. Terrance Ferguson (4 star):  #216

09. Jeffrey Bassa (4 star):  #334

10. Iapani Laloulu (4 star):  #347

 

11. Marcus Harper (3 star):  #714

12. Dillon Gabriel (3 star):  #754

13. Derrick Harmon (3 star):  #969

14. Jabbar Muhammad (3 star):  #1043

15. Brandon Johnson (3 star):  #1395

16. Tez Johnson (3 star):  #1467

17. Nikko Reed (3 star):  #1941

18. Nishad Strother (3 star):  #2776

 

19. Ajani Cornelius (UR)

20. Kobe Savage (UR)

21. Jamaree Caldwell (UR)

22. Bryce Boettcher (UR)

 

So, a Blue Chip ratio of 0.455, with 0.273 top 200 recruits.

 

I guess this isn't news, tOSU was loaded, I just didn't realize how loaded. 8 five stars and over half their starters top 75 recruits.

 

Oregon, at least according to the Blue Chip ratio, was never going to win the thing with a starting Blue Chip ratio of 46% and 4 full starters UR out of high school.

 

Actually, I would say their is an argument Lanning and company overachieved their overall talent.

 

Add into the equation, I think tOSU had 5 transfer starters and 17 original recruits while Oregon had 14 transfer starters and only 8 starters who began at Oregon, I think the argument looks a bit better (having guys grown up and developed in their system versus guys developed at least in part by someone else in a different system). Oregon went undefeated and won the B1G Championship with as many as half its starters kids it likely would never have offered out of high school.

 

Good news is, just for fun, just based on kids already in the program, Oregon in two years could have a starting roster that looks a lot like tOSU this year. Of course so many young guys likely won't be starting, etc., etc. But, for fun.

 

01. Darkorian Moore (5 star):  #4

02. Dante Moore (5 star):  #4

03. Na'eem Offord (5 star):  #10

04. Jurrion Dickey (5 star):  #22

05. Kodi Green (5 star):  #25

06. Brandon Finney (5 star): #28

07. Trey McNutt (high 4 star):  #29

08. Elijah Rushing (high 4 star):  #45

09. Matayo Uiagalelei (high 4 star):  #47

10. Dorian Brew (high 4 star):  #50

11. Ify Obidegwa (high 4 star): #52

12. Aydin Breland (high 4 star):  #58

13. Jeremiah McClellan (high 4 star):  #65

14. Douglas Utu (high 4 star):  #72

 

15. Kenyon Sadiq (4 star):  #122

16. Jordan Davison (4 star):  #154

17. Jeremiah Johnson (4 star): #161

18. Brayden Platt (4 star):  #190

19. Dylan Williams (4 star):  #199

 

20. Iapani Laloulu (4 star):  #347

21. Fox Crader (4 star):  #349

22. Gernorris Wilson (4 star):  #388

 

Also: Jahlil Florence (4 star, #157), Devon Jackson (4 star, #140), Kyler Kasper (4 star, #150), Rodrick Pleasant (4 star, #90), Blake Purchase (4 star, #294), Daylen Austin (4 star, #121), Aston Porter (4 star, #245), Xadavien Sims (4 star, #244), Aaron Flowers (high 4 star, #60), Dakota Fields (4 star #90), Kamar Mothdi (4 star, #215), Sione Laulea (4 star, #2 JC), Cooper Perry (4 star, #131), Nasir Wyatt (4 star, #176), Zac Stascausky (4 star, #261), Gatlin Bair (5 star, #27), Tradarian Bell (high 4 star, #32), Kendre Harrison (5 star, #9), Tony Cumberland (high 4 star, #57), and others.

 

I completely agree with those who suggest a high ranking isn't a guarantee of success; and, I would also agree the fact Oregon in a lot of games it felt in control of, didn't exactly rush to get these highly rated kids some run. But, in regards to recruiting rankings, look at the points allowed by the tOSU defense and their ranking scores. Look forward to thoughts.

 

 

Edited January 20 by AnotherOD

[jrw]

Props for the research; great work!

[30Duck]

 

On 1/20/2025 at 3:19 PM, AnotherOD said:

Actually, I would say their is an argument Lanning and company overachieved their overall talent.

A very sound argument I think, and one that bodes well for the future.

[JabbaNoBargain]

HOF level post.
 

The real question remains how did tOSU lose to Michigan at home. 

[30Duck]

On 1/20/2025 at 5:40 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

 

The real question remains how did tOSU lose to Michigan at home.

By the time that game was played, Ohio State could see the playoff path they'd have if they didn't win the conference. Losing to Michigan didn't matter. 

[MikeJ]

Nice post. 

 

Another comparison point which looks bad for us right now is NIL spending.  NIL gets spent on players who were not only blue chip recruits out of high school, but who have proven to be great players at the college level, so I would argue it makes an even bigger difference. 

 

I think we need to flat out spend more on NIL.  I never used to think this way, we have 'done more with less' for many years.  But if my understanding of where Oregon ranks is correct (someone correct me if I'm wrong), we rank #19 nationally in NIL spending, and while we spent about $11m this year, Texas, Ohio State and a few others spent north of $20m.  That's a massive difference.

 

  We're way behind Michigan, and behind even Indiana and Mich. State in NIL spending.  It's starting to look, at least to me, like we can't field a roster that is strong enough from top to bottom to bring ourselves into parity with teams like Ohio State unless we spend NIL money that is at least in the same ballpark as other top teams.

 

  Being ranked 19th in such spending (that is among public universities only, we're likely lower than that if private schools are included), and being outspent nearly 2-to-1, appears to be a serious handicap.  I'm not saying it should be this way, and maybe some kind of NIL spending caps will be put into place, but for now I don't think this can be ignored.  Everyone who doesn't do the research assumes Oregon is a big NIL spender due to the Nike connection, etc., and maybe we need to do a bit more along those lines.  

Edited January 21 by MikeJ

[JabbaNoBargain]

On 1/20/2025 at 6:46 PM, MikeJ said:

Nice post. 

 

Another comparison point which looks bad for us right now is NIL spending.  NIL gets spent on players who were not only blue chip recruits out of high school, but who have proven to be great players at the college level, so I would argue it makes an even bigger difference. 

 

I think we need to flat out spend more on NIL.  I never used to think this way, we have 'done more with less' for many years.  But if my understanding of where Oregon ranks is correct (someone correct me if I'm wrong), we rank #19 nationally in NIL spending, and while we spent about $12m this year, Texas, Ohio State and a few others spent north of $20m.  That's a massive difference.  We're way behind Michigan, and behind even Indiana and Mich. State in NIL spending.  It's starting to look, at least to me, like we can't field a roster that is strong enough from top to bottom to bring ourselves into parity with teams like Ohio State unless we spend NIL money that is at least in the same ballpark as other top teams.  Being ranked 19th in such spending (that is among public universities only, we're likely lower than that if private schools are included), and being outspent nearly 2-to-1, appears to be a serious handicap.  I'm not saying it should be this way, and maybe some kind of NIL spending caps will be put into place, but for now I don't think this can be ignored.  Everyone who doesn't do the research assumes Oregon is a big NIL spender due to the Nike connection, etc., and maybe we need to do a bit more along those lines.  

I don’t think anyone believes that NIL number.
 

I’m also starting to think it just happens to be that tOSU had the best roster in 2024/25 and there is no deep problem to solve aside from our great recent recruiting classes bubbling to the surface more as the original post demonstrates.
 

We managed to beat the best team once at home and win the conference that saw the eventual champ finish 3rd in, they just kicked our butts in the tournament, it happens.

Edited January 21 by JabbaNoBargain

[30Duck]

On 1/20/2025 at 6:58 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

I’m also starting to think it just happens to be that tOSU had the best roster in 2024/25 and there is no deep problem to solve aside from our great recent recruiting classes bubbling to the surface more as the original post demonstrates.

I agree that osu2 had the best roster in 24/25. As noted basketball announcer, Don MacLean notes, "when you're behind, you can't trade baskets." Oregon is behind osu2 in rosters, even getting even is going to be difficult. 

[Charles Fischer]

[Charles Fischer]

[GatOrlando]

Who assigns stars to a recruit? Is it linked to competition, numbers, athletic attributes like speed and size? Four years ago Quinn Ewers was rated as the highest rated guy since Andrew Luck, but then some say it was Caleb Williams.

 

Anybody remember Clausen in 2006? He was talked up as a future top pick going into his freshman year at Notre Dame. I mean at certain positions I can see the obvious like Jeremiah Smith. A 17 year old that is 6'3 and 220 that runs a 4.4 or whatever he is just jumps out.

 

But I've also heard stars are attributed based off offers. Like a guy only getting offers from Boise or Wyoming may be a three star but then if Oregon, Texas and Ohio State want him than he magically gets another star.

[30Duck]

On 1/21/2025 at 3:34 AM, GatOrlando said:

But I've also heard stars are attributed based off offers. Like a guy only getting offers from Boise or Wyoming may be a three star but then if Oregon, Texas and Ohio State want him than he magically gets another star.

Ty Thompson 5 star? Sometimes the rating doesn't make any sense at all. I don't know how many stars Cam Skattebo had, but I'm thinking 3. What about Ashton Jeanty? I don't think osu2 has 3's or walk-ons making their roster. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/21/2025 at 1:42 AM, Charles Fischer said:

 

Is that Tyler's bodyguard sitting behind her and did she forget to brush? 

 

[Jon Joseph]

 

Thank you, OD. Great research.

 

Bud Elliott, now with 247 Sports, introduced the Blue Chip Ratio in 2013. The formula worked for every college championship game played before 2013, worked in 2013, and for every season since 2013 including 2024-25. OBD had it won a BCS title or won a 4-team playoff title would have upset the Blue Chip Ratio cart. 

 

College Football has always been about the Jimmies and the Joes and always will be. Nick Saban won titles on Signing Day. He capitalized on the talent he brought in but Bama rarely had a roster ranked lower than its opponent's roster. 

 

In today's world of NIL and free agency, I believe that composite rankings including transfers ranked at the time of transfer, not coming out of high school matter. At the time they transferred Will Howard, Riley Leonard, Gabe, and Derrick Harmon were not  3* recruits. And in 2024-25, they weren't paid like 3* recruits. 

 

I believe it was Coach Saban last night who noted that transfers and returnees who could have gone pro are paid more than mid-level draft choices entering into their second contract. It seems, at least to this old-timer, that the script has flipped overnight from 'student-athletes' having no control to Athletes driving today's CFB bus. No wonder Nick decided to get off the bus.

 

Rivals ranks transfer classes in addition to recruiting classes but I believe Rivals has not released a combined ranking as has 247 Sports and other services. There will be variances in the rankings but experienced college players should be easier to evaluate than players coming out of high school.

 

When it comes to NIL, Division Street does not take a back seat to any collective. The seniors who returned to play for Ohio State were going to play one more year of college ball in Columbus and nowhere else. Nine transfers visited Oregon in the first portal go-round and Oregon signed all nine including the No.1 ranked OT and the No. 1 ranked Safety. I'm certain the Isiah World and Dillon Thieneman had more than one offer.

 

Dan is working hard to bring top talent to Eugene. The kind of talent Ohio State has brought in year after year. The kind of talent that returned to Ann Arbor with Champion Michigan having the most players drafted in 2024, and returned to Columbus and Champion Ohio State which will lead the league in draft picks in 2025.

 

The B1G finished the Playoff 6-3, with $2.55M for every team. Also, every team that traveled to a game received $3M expense money for every trip. That's $9M in expenses loot for THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY. I trust that the Buckeyes did not fly Coach.

 

Beat the Bobcats!

 

[AnotherOD]

The two things that jumped out to me were:

 

Top 200 recruits starting:

 

Ohio State: 82%

Oregon: 27%

 

Top 80 kids starting:

 

Ohio State: 56%

Oregon:  18%

 

If we consider the coaching staffs roughly even.  In a rematch on a neutral site, where are you gonna place your money? It's not, IMO, heresy to tip one's hat and say talent won that day.

 

That is sort of why I added the thought, even without potential future transfers, in two years, Oregon's starting 22 could look a lot like tOSU's this year. Could, of course, just interesting to look at.

 

I look at the numbers and Will Howard was the lowest rated starter tOSU put on the field this year, the lowest. #128 spots behind DG, who many felt could be the difference in the game. Arguably, IMO, in that position, ultimately, it becomes a bit less about scheme, motivation, or intangibles, and more about the guys who will be making the plays.

 

Edited January 22 by AnotherOD

[Charles Fischer]

 

 

[GatOrlando]

On 1/21/2025 at 7:48 AM, 30Duck said:

Ty Thompson 5 star? Sometimes the rating doesn't make any sense at all. I don't know how many stars Cam Skattebo had, but I'm thinking 3. What about Ashton Jeanty? I don't think osu2 has 3's or walk-ons making their roster. 

I've always heard of mid tier P4 programs like Iowa, Mississippi State, Minnesota, Washington State, and Kansas State recruiting Sun Belt, Mountain West or Mac guys. Oregon used to offer guys that had offers from schools in those conferences but that is no longer the case.

 

When Chip Kelly was turning Oregon in a power he would have a guy like Dixon play QB just like West Virginia under Rich Rodriguez had Slaton. Both guys were seen as purely "athletes" from schools like Texas or Florida. That's how programs from the smaller pool got to swim in the deeper water. Oregon kept pushing and is now a full member while West Virginia unfortunately didn't ever have the resources and went back in time to grab a relic from the past.

 

Come to think of it, 2007 West Virginia vs Oregon would've been a really fun game to watch. I wish CFB would do in season conference challenges like CBB.