The Current Format Will Be Nixed - A Hypothetical 4-4-2-2-1-1 in 2026

[Jon Joseph]

 

While we wait for today's Super Bowl opening kickoff, here's a look at what the College Football Playoff (CFP) could look like in 2026, using the 4-4-2-2-1-1 Model. 

 

Like the NFL Playoff, fourteen teams would comprise the CFP field.

 

The top two seeds would have a 1st round Bye. The top four teams from the B1G and the top four teams from the SEC would be in the field (4-4.) The top two teams in the ACC and the B12 would be in the field (2-2.) The top-ranked G5 team is in along with one at-large team, a/k/a the Notre Dame reserved spot.

 

Using The Sporting News Top 25 Preseason Rankings this would be the 2026-27 CFP field. This ranking combines the 2025 preseason rankings of The Sporting News and 10 other popular sites.)

 

 

Composite college football top 25 rankings for 2025: Texas, Ohio State lead Way-Too-Early lists

WWW.SPORTINGNEWS.COM

---

The Arch Manning effect is real.

 

The Field: 1. Texas; 2. Ohio State; 3. Penn State; 4. Georgia; 5. Notre Dame; 6. OREGON; 7. Clemson; 8. LSU; 9. Alabama; 10. Miami; 11. ASU; 12. Illinois; 13. BYU; 14. G5.

 

1. Texas - Bye vs. winner of 10. Miami at 7 Clemson - 2nd round game played in Austin, Texas.

 

14. Boise State (G5) at 4. Georgia - winner vs. winner of -

 

12. Illinois at 6. OREGON. 

 

If games go according to seeding, in the 2nd round OBD would play UGA in Athens, Georgia.

 

(Assumes the 1st round and 2nd round games will be played at the home field of the higher ranked team. Also assumes, unlike the NFL, that there will be no reseeding of the field.)

 

2. Ohio State - Bye vs. the winner of 9. Alabama at 8. LSU - 2nd round game played in Columbus, Ohio

 

11. ASU at 5. Notre Dame, winner vs. winner of -

 

9. Alabama at 8. LSU. If games go according to seeding, LSU would play at Notre Dame in the 2nd round. 

 

This possible format was introduced by B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti before the 2024 format was agreed to and was roundly criticized with SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey remaining neutral.

 

With the SEC only having three teams in the field in 2024-25 and the possibility of this happening again in 2025-26, with the SEC playing the same schedules the teams played in 2024-25 with the venue changed, the SEC would likely support this model. 

 

The B1G and the SEC coincident with the Power 2 Conferences having the largest shares of CFP media revenue, will have voting power in 2026 over the ACC, B12, and the G6. (Notre Dame would support the format as it would be favored to secure the at-large spot and would be seeded as ranked, in the top two if ranked that high.) 

 

Greedy on the part of the B1G and the SEC? No doubt the Power 2 will be criticized if the 4-4-2-2-1-1 comes to fruition. College football today is all about the $$$. And when it comes to viewer numbers, the B1G and the SEC can righteously say: SCOREBOARD!

 

Based on economics alone, two teams in the field for the ACC and the B12 is generous. 

 

GO CHIEFS!

 

Super Bowl Drinking Game - Every time there is a candid shot of The Donald or Taylor you have to down a shot of your alcohol of choice.

 

(HINT: Tape the game so you can see how it ends on Monday. )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[30Duck]

4-4-2-2-1-1 seems appropriate, the Notre Dame slot is tiresome but appears to be obligatory. Beat Georgia in Athens? Why not, but remember that article that said, "Oregon Can Repeat as B1G Champ" just do that, let osu2 take the "Midnight Train to Georgia"

[Charles Fischer]

On 2/9/2025 at 9:58 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Super Bowl Drinking Game - Every time there is a candid shot of The Donald or Taylor you have to down a shot of your alcohol of choice.

Ready!

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/9/2025 at 1:27 PM, 30Duck said:

4-4-2-2-1-1 seems appropriate, the Notre Dame slot is tiresome but appears to be obligatory. Beat Georgia in Athens? Why not, but remember that article that said, "Oregon Can Repeat as B1G Champ" just do that, let osu2 take the "Midnight Train to Georgia"

 

A win in Athens would be a Peach () of a win.

 

UGA's last home loss occured in 2019 when the 21.5 favorite Dawgs lost to South Carolina 17-20 in Double OT. 

 

Any win anywhere over Georgia would be a B1G win for OBD. 

 

This season, UGA has to trip to Tennessee (at Auburn is always interesting) but plays Bama, Ole Miss, and Texas in Athens. Lots of preseason love for the Longhorns but I like the Dawgs to repeat as SEC champs and be the No. 1 PO seed.  

[Charles Fischer]

I would like this format, although...I am ready to go to 16 teams and be done with it.  No byes for anyone, and the home games for the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will generate a ton of money.

 

And the price of poker in the B1G is going to go up.  You could actually be the fifth team in the conference, and yet be in the top 16 as Illinois showed us this year.  I believe that with the differences in the schedules--a fifth team out of both the two Super-Conferences might have a legit chance to catch fire in the Playoff.

 

Thus why I would want two extra slots.

 

[Mike West]

Let’s be frank,

 

The ACC and the Big 12 would be lucky to earn two playoff spots regularly moving forward.  They are about to fall behind significantly once the players get paid.

 

I agree with FishDuck.  Move to 16 teams, no byes.  Season begins Week 0, Big 12 and the ACC use CCG weekend as qualifiers (two games 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3-winners advance-a financial boon for both conferences).  Better yet, reduce the final week of the season to the top four each conference left open (the top four play for playoffs in the “second P2”, the top 8 play for playoffs in the P2).

 

Ratings would hit the roof if that proposal was slotted properly (would help, if the NFL took their players’ advice and eliminate Thursday Night Football).  
 

College Football needs the P4 to separate so the G5 can create their own playoffs, while still getting those million plus ‘preseason’ games.  There needs to be the thought that somebody like ASU can crash the Natty party.  Think March Madness football style.  
 

The networks can still get their NFL esque matchups every week.  Just pit the best of each conference against each other much like what ESPN just did to Notre Dame.  We already know Bama and Ohio State are the most popular teams.  And Texas.  People will watch a surging Ole Miss, Florida, or whomever play Ohio State, or  Michigan.  Same with Oregon vs Bama.  Or USC vs Texas.  Mid season at that. 
 

Slot Oklahoma State with Georgia.  Missouri at Penn State.  You get the idea.  Expose the SEC to the

entire country, now that they get four slots, bump the ratings, and fans from the Second Two will not only watch all season, they will eagerly await the playoffs.

 

Anything to be the opposite of the NFL will preserve college football.  Anything resembling the NFL will destroy it.

[GatOrlando]

I like the NFL model but that's going to be tough getting four conferences to accept only two byes. Truth is it's going to be controlled by two conferences and the other two would be smart to consolidate some power before 2026. Notre Dame could help out the ACC and repay them for saving their 2020 season if they were so inclined.

[Nevada Dawg]

The thing I dislike about the 4-4- is that it won't be long before we see three-loss and, heaven forbid, a four-loss team occasionally in the playoffs. IMHO a 4-loss team never belongs in the playoffs no matter where they play, and most 3-loss teams out there don't belong as well. And imagine the outrage of really solid 1- or 2-loss G5 teams who are omitted in favor of multiple 3- or 4-loss  G4 teams.

 

Also, the  argument that it is all about the money leaves me cold. The best teams should be the ones playing with little or no concern about the devil's cabbage. 

 

And this last season notwithstanding, why in the world should we have a slot that so favors Notre Dame. The Irish, thanks to NIL, may be on the road to restoring their former glory, but, we've seen years and years of, quite frankly, a mediocre product in South Bend over the past two decades.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/9/2025 at 6:24 PM, Mike West said:

Let’s be frank,

 

The ACC and the Big 12 would be lucky to earn two playoff spots regularly moving forward.  They are about to fall behind significantly once the players get paid.

 

I agree with FishDuck.  Move to 16 teams, no byes.  Season begins Week 0, Big 12 and the ACC use CCG weekend as qualifiers (two games 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3-winners advance-a financial boon for both conferences).  Better yet, reduce the final week of the season to the top four each conference left open (the top four play for playoffs in the “second P2”, the top 8 play for playoffs in the P2).

 

Ratings would hit the roof if that proposal was slotted properly (would help, if the NFL took their players’ advice and eliminate Thursday Night Football).  
 

College Football needs the P4 to separate so the G5 can create their own playoffs, while still getting those million plus ‘preseason’ games.  There needs to be the thought that somebody like ASU can crash the Natty party.  Think March Madness football style.  
 

The networks can still get their NFL esque matchups every week.  Just pit the best of each conference against each other much like what ESPN just did to Notre Dame.  We already know Bama and Ohio State are the most popular teams.  And Texas.  People will watch a surging Ole Miss, Florida, or whomever play Ohio State, or  Michigan.  Same with Oregon vs Bama.  Or USC vs Texas.  Mid season at that. 
 

Slot Oklahoma State with Georgia.  Missouri at Penn State.  You get the idea.  Expose the SEC to the

entire country, now that they get four slots, bump the ratings, and fans from the Second Two will not only watch all season, they will eagerly await the playoffs.

 

Anything to be the opposite of the NFL will preserve college football.  Anything resembling the NFL will destroy it.

 

Mike, you are the Man! And I like your ideas on how to deliver and maintain college football. However, I do not believe that NFL-Lite will destroy college football. As you so note, a financial divide has happened. There is a Power 2 that continues to financially distant itself. People will watch Stanford at SMU but nowhere close to those who will tune in to watch Texas at Ohio State in the opening game of the 2025 season.

 

FWIW, I think that a split of the Biggest Boys negotiating with a players' union to curtail an unregulated transfer portal, impose a direct-payment salary cap (but like the NFL no cap on NIL,) and introduce a high school draft, etc. is coming and needed to obtain relief from myriad law suits. 

 

CFB has been capitalized and IMO needs to take the next step in recognition of what we know, 'student-athlete' in money-ball sports is an oxymoron. 

 

The House settlement, if approved in April, will create a $20.5 million per year separation benchmark. A separation of monied programs from the programs that cannot step up to the big-time sports plate. That this will happen in court-of-law and not on the field and basketball court is a further indictment of the NCAA; the B1G/SEC split has happened and it needs to be recognized.

 

OBD sponsored by NIKE, Bama sponsored by Nick Saban's Mercedes Benz dealerships, etc., is the next step. Will a realization of where big time sports is financially kill college sports? I don't think so but I certainly recognize and appreciate your concerns.

[Mike West]

On 2/10/2025 at 12:34 AM, Jon Joseph said:

However, I do not believe that NFL-Lite will destroy college football.

I actually agree with you Jon.  It's just the threat of it concerns me.

 

We've long been past amateurism in college football. Since I was a freshman in college many many years ago.  I talked to the players, they knew back then opponents were paying players.

 

But this free agency situation is harming everyone.  I'm not keen on the House Settlement either.  I also don't believe that stems the tide, nor pits a check on outright greed.. 

 

That's what driving things now.  Pure greed.  Michigan proved they'll overpay an unknown just to lock him up.  Player counts are going back to 100 plus.  That's just a rerun if the seventies and eighties when blue bloods stocked talent to eliminate competition.

 

OBD will survive, but Northwestern is toast.  Vanderbilt is going to be a high school team.  And like Nevada Dawg stated, massively mediocre teams are going to reach the playoffs.

 

I liked a six or eight team playoff field.  That's the max number of elite teams the total  talent pool offers.. 

 

Edited February 11 by Mike West

[30Duck]

On 2/11/2025 at 3:10 AM, Mike West said:

 

I liked a six or eight team playoff field.  That's the max number of elite teams the total  talent pool offers.. 

Agree, unfortunately, $$$ won't let that happen. The NFL has institutional parity that allows 14 teams in the Playoffs, 6 or 8 college teams, realistically do. 4 wasn't enough competition wise, but the $$$ won't allow just doubling that.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/11/2025 at 6:10 AM, Mike West said:

I actually agree with you Jon.  It's just the threat of it concerns me.

 

We've long been past amateurism in college football. Since I was a freshman in college many many years ago.  I talked to the players, they knew back then opponents were paying players.

 

But this free agency situation is harming everyone.  I'm not keen on the House Settlement either.  I also don't believe that stems the tide, nor pits a check on outright greed.. 

 

That's what driving things now.  Pure greed.  Michigan proved they'll overpay an unknown just to lock him up.  Player counts are going back to 100 plus.  That's just a rerun if the seventies and eighties when blue bloods stocked talent to eliminate competition.

 

OBD will survive, but Northwestern is toast.  Vanderbilt is going to be a high school team.  And like Nevada Dawg stated, massively mediocre teams are going to reach the playoffs.

 

I liked a six or eight team playoff field.  That's the max number of elite teams the total  talent pool offers.. 

 

 

Thanks, Mike. 

 

An NFL model 14-team playoff will work if the season begins in Week Zero, Conference champ games are flex-scheduled to be played on the last Saturday of the regular season, half of the team's bye in Week 6, and the others in Week 7. The 1st two rounds of the PO should be played at the higher-ranked team's home field. I'd like to see three played at home.

 

Make these changes and the champ game could be played on January 1st in the Rose Bowl, and would draw huge numbers of viewers. In 2025-26, the geniuses behind this so-called Playoff-Bowl Extravaganza will play the champ game five days later on 1/25/26.

 

Sunday's Super Bowl was a blowout but set a record for viewers. The CFB champ game on 1/20/25 drew 10M viewers less than the number who watched the Ducks vs. Bucks in the 1st 4-team champ game.

 

College Football needs a Player's Union and a Super Conference that can negotiate with the union, restrict transfers, etc. 

 

House? The $20.5 million direct payment per annum cap on money that can be paid to college athletes will be overturned as a restraint on trade.

 

Seven accountants deciding whether a NIL deal is within 'market value' is DOA when the first suit filed by a player who brokered a Chip Kelly-like assistant coach salary is shot down and his lawsuit hits the courthouse. 

 

The Emperors behind the House settlement have no clothes. 

 

NFL-Lite if structured properly with scheduling agreed upon with the NFL (if there is an NFL-Lite, the agreement that restricts NFL games being played on Saturday through mid-December arguably goes away) will draw eyeballs.

 

Vandy and Northwestern football could disappear or more likely become a club sport but the SEC and B1G conferences will be there for all other sports. 

 

Failing to recognize that an old paradigm has been shattered has led to the ruin of many business entities and today's Big Time CFB is Big Business.