Will a Portal-Heavy Team Win a Natty?

[Jon Joseph]

 

CBS Sports review of transfer portal heavy teams and the difficulty these teams have winning a championship.

 

Kudos to Dan for developing a roster that can win it all. 

 

 

Ceiling for portal-heavy teams in expanded CFP era: Why traditional roster building is necessary to win title - CBSSports.com

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

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How far can a portal-heavy roster go in the expanded playoff era?

 

[DanLduck]

Interesting way to measure transfers simply by quantity. 

Good teams get good talent from hischool but plucking key components, particularly for key positions should be the true measure. 

 

Would tOSU have made it without their qb transfer? Would Oregon?

 

How many transfers were starters?

That would be a good measure. 

 

Neither Colorado or Indiana went far, but both improved drastically in 1 year, and both had pretty large transfer #'s.

 

Hischool recruits is still where it's at, but filling holes and adding key elements is the way.

 

Clemson will adjust soon enough. Just wait and see.

[DanLduck]

Btw, I think it's silly to infer that transfer players are not "devloped" compared to hischool recruits.

 

New coaches teach new techniques and ideas. Players improve.

 

Bo Nix is a perfect example. 

 

Different schemes also require player development. 

 

The only negative for me with regards to transfers is not having enough time as a fan to get to know them.

[30Duck]

I appreciate using "Will" rather than "Can" a portal heavy team win a Natty. Such a team can win a Natty, but I don't think a team with say 16- up of the starters would end up champion. Reload rather than rebuild isn't just an expression, it's a sign of depth & experience, a player here or there, and you're ready to go. 

 

OBD is behind osu2 & Georgia now because those two have been the leaders in recruiting for years, that builds a team, especially on the, now clear to all, incredibly important OL, that needs continuity to play at its best. QB's and receivers work better when they know each other.

 

So far Lanning has shown how recruiting, and portal can be used effectively together, OBD is at the top of both lists, osu2 did great work in both and ended up with a Natty last season. Moore is interesting as he was originally recruited by the Ducks, but looks like he'll be at his best coming to Oregon via the portal. 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/18/2025 at 6:16 PM, DanLduck said:

Interesting way to measure transfers simply by quantity. 

Good teams get good talent from hischool but plucking key components, particularly for key positions should be the true measure. 

 

Would tOSU have made it without their qb transfer? Would Oregon?

 

How many transfers were starters?

That would be a good measure. 

 

Neither Colorado or Indiana went far, but both improved drastically in 1 year, and both had pretty large transfer #'s.

 

Hischool recruits is still where it's at, but filling holes and adding key elements is the way.

 

Clemson will adjust soon enough. Just wait and see.

Dabo is bringing in three transfers in 2025 to a team with many returning starters.

[GatOrlando]

What's the definition or amount you call heavy and is it still a transfer if say a recruit signs up but never really goes to the school? Florida took a five star receiver from Oregon after he signed with Oregon but he is still in high school or was an early graduate that will be a true freshman this year. I don't consider him a transfer.

 

But as to the question of what is considered a heavy transfer class. I think you can look at Indiana and Florida State as truly heavy transfer classes with about twenty guys or so that saw time. Ole Miss was a heavy transfer class and most of their NIL went to getting guys like former Gator Princely who was a heavy contributor in 2023 with over 80 tackles and nearly 10 sacks.

 

Ohio State has their well known twenty million dollar roster. But a lot of that went to keeping guys like Ebeka, Henderson, Burke, Sawyer and JT. Yeah Will Howard, Judkins and the "Eraser" Caleb Downs played big roles, but most of their leadership was recruited and coached up for years.

 

Oregon brought in Dillon and Bo Nix before him. But Nix was developed during his time and is more Duck than Tiger. Dillon was a journeyman brought in so he could lead an already deep and talented squad into unknown waters and he did just that. I don't think you'd want a second or first year guy leading you into games at Wisconsin or Michigan and hosting Ohio State or playing against Abdul Carter and that ferocious Penn State line in Indy.

 

Oregon won't have to be dependent on the portal because you recruit at such a high level already. Indiana and Ole Miss will need to hit it yearly because their classes are in the twenties and forties respectively. Remember when Lane Kiffin was considered a great recruiter?

[David Marsh]

I don't think so... 

 

Transfers, especially ones that only play one year, may be the best option to play due to their expirence. However, that does usually put a limitation on how deep the playbook can go. 

 

Players need to learn the scheme and learn how to play with each other. 

 

Year two Bo Nix in the Oregon system was better than year one Nix. He was also better than one year Gabriel. 

 

Lanning's defense has improved year-on-year but still doesn't feel like it's reached it's potential yet and the mercenary like feel to the team makes them successful but not inherently good enough to win it all. 

 

My article tomorrow will talk about how we may be seeing the end of the Lanning Mercenary teams. 

[Nevada Dawg]

I thoroughly enjoyed the target article and agreed with virtually every premise presented. At Georgia, Kirby always used the portal to address glaring needs and he had that luxury because of his success at layering several consecutive top 4 recruiting classes out of the high school ranks. Hence, he could reload each year and not risk messing with team culture by bringing in outsiders whom I think he saw as potential risks to team chemistry. Kirby has said several times that vetting a portal addition for "fit" is every bit as importing as matching the kid's football skills against team needs. So far, so good as well with Lanning and the Ducks.  

 

Will a portal heavy team ever win the Natty. Maybe, but careful inspection of such teams will indicate, I believe, that the winning coach will also have had some luck with his portal takes meaning that most of the portal additions have "bought in" to their prescribed roles and have been accepted by teammates built from the (high school) ground up.