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30Duck

The Oregon-Penn State Conundrum: Are Both Locks for the Playoffs in 2025?

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Oregon is starting a brand new QB, behind a new OL, he'll be handing off to new runningbacks, throwing to new receivers, and the defense will be new too. But an objective floor for Oregon is 10-2.

 

Penn State has a returning QB, returning RB's, two returning LB's. They won't have their all-American TE, or edge rusher back, but it looks like it will be happy time in Happy Valley. Is the biggest factor that Lanning returns at Oregon and Franklin at Penn State?

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The game at PSU is one of the two games OBD plays against the preseason top 25. The other being in Autzen two weeks later against Indiana.

 

However, the games at Iowa and home against USC could be top 25 matchups. And UW in Seattle could be a top 25 matchup. Jedd Fisch has not lost a home game in Husky Stadium.

 

 

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It’s difficult to imagine 10-2 in the B1G not making the playoff. 9-3 will eventually happen

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On 5/16/2025 at 2:43 PM, 30Duck said:

Is the biggest factor that Lanning returns at Oregon and Franklin at Penn State?

I think this matters most. At most you have a starting QB for three years. Nick Saban lost QBs, coordinators, and everybody else just about every two years. He was the cog, Alabama was the rehab stint for guys like Kiffin, Sarkasian and O'Brien. He was the launching point for Kirby, Locksley and MacElwain. Lanning is going to go through the same thing if he continues winning ten plus games every year and wins at least one big game a year.

 

Who has come off a James Franklin coaching tree and been successfully? Joe Moorehead at Mississippi State? What big games has Franklin won in his tenure? 2016 when he beat Ohio State and Wisconsin to win the league. He didn't even finish that year off as he lost to Clay Helton in the Rose Bowl. Lanning had more big wins in one year and has as many conference titles as Franklin already.

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An analyst I listen to, Walt Deptula, predicts PSU v Clemson in the Natty. 

 

PSU is going to be tough this season and should be within the Top-5 in national rankings through season if they live up to the pre season hype.

 

The Ducks have the talent to contend for the championship though they are somewhat young and need to gel quickly into a synchronized unit early in the season.

 

The game against the Nittany Lions at Happy Valley looms large on the horizon. Can the Ducks avoid being shot down, and propel into the championship conversation by defeating Penn State?

 

Every game counts, but Oregon at Penn State in 2025 will be huge.

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The Schedules Say Both PSU and OBD are in the 2025-26 PO.

 

 

SATURDAYBLITZ.COM

Not every College Football Playoff run is created equal. Some teams have to claw their way through brutal schedules, dodging top-10 matchups week after week jus

 

But 12 games have to be played, and no one knows how an oblong object will bounce. 

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On 5/16/2025 at 11:13 PM, GatOrlando said:

Who has come off a James Franklin coaching tree and been successfully?

When has Franklin had the same talent as the teams he consistently lost to?  He has had a QB like Allar only once- the same year he claimed the conference.

 

Franklin gets bashed as if he had top five talent every year.  That absolutely has not been the case.  The guy didn't have a WR that could stretch the field and that's why he lost a ten point lead to Ohio State last year. 

 

That's what Franklin's offenses have been-less than elite. For ten years.  Franklin recruited a QB with Diabetes at Vandy, that went pro.  That's how he got the PSU job. He's had three elite QBs his entire career. 

 

That Franklin beats up everyone but Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon with a B to B plus talent level speaks volumes. He wins the games he's supposed to, and loses the games he's supposed to. 

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On 5/18/2025 at 12:35 AM, Mike West said:

When has Franklin had the same talent as the teams he consistently lost to?  He has had a QB like Allar only once- the same year he claimed the conference.

 

Franklin gets bashed as if he had top five talent every year.  That absolutely has not been the case.  The guy didn't have a WR that could stretch the field and that's why he lost a ten point lead to Ohio State last year. 

 

That's what Franklin's offenses have been-less than elite. For ten years.  Franklin recruited a QB with Diabetes at Vandy, that went pro.  That's how he got the PSU job. He's had three elite QBs his entire career. 

 

That Franklin beats up everyone but Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon with a B to B plus talent level speaks volumes. He wins the games he's supposed to, and loses the games he's supposed to. 

I'll give you Ohio State as they have the highest collective group of five stars and cumulative grading outside of the SEC. But Michigan has been right in the same neighborhood or slightly below Penn State.

 

Oregon really hadn't recruited at the rate they have until Lanning. Under Chip it wasn't about five stars, it was about quickness and a style. Mario Christobal got Oregon into the Penn State and Michigan range which is top 15. Under Lanning it's jumped to Ohio State level, so I'll give you that as well. But Penn State has brought in top 15 classes nine times under Franklin. I don't look at that as a sisters of the poor by any means.

 

Franklin should have more than one career win against Ohio State. He's blown ten point leads going into the fourth against them four times in this recent 8 game losing streak and only beat them the one time off a blocked kick six in 2016. That was an Ohio State team that lost by thirty and went scoreless against Clemson in the playoff.

 

Mario Christobal is clowned on appropriately, but he took an Oregon squad into Columbus and beat them by double digits with a roster loaded with Penn State level talent.

 

I dog on Franklin because he blows double digits games like he's mowing a field full of dandelions with those annoying white seeds. Notre Dame was at or below the Penn State talent level and Freeman was capable of beating him. Freeman led a Notre Dame team into a stretch where he beat Georgia, Penn State and made a comeback against Ohio State. When has Franklin done anything like that?

 

Franklin is a very good coach, but he's known as an elite recruiter. Is he even that if he has considerably less talent every year? How do we judge him fairly if we can't hold him accountable for blowing big game after big game?

 

WWW.YDR.COM

See where Penn State football's 2025 recruiting class ranks across the country and in the Big Ten on National Signing...

 

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For Penn State to be top 5 and stay top 5, they have to have better receivers. Who replaces Warren? their WRs last year were abysmal, Harrison Wallace was salvageable, but that's all they have returning (aside from Evans who had 3 catches their last 4 games) unless they brought in new talent from the portal?  That seems like a glaring weakness to me especially when Drew Allar is only an OK to good QB...  

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On 5/18/2025 at 2:34 AM, GatOrlando said:

Mario Christobal is clowned on appropriately, but he took an Oregon squad into Columbus and beat them by double digits with a roster loaded with Penn State level talent.

Mario beat essentially the same team Lanning defeated... When that unit was comprised of freshmen.  Including a frosg QB that blossomed  enough OBD world have lost horribly later in the year ( that was the second game of they year).

 

In essence, the entire front seven  in 22' was the same unit as  last year.  Lanning also exploited the edge in his Eugene game like Mario did ( Ohio State fixed up and promptly shut that down in the Rose Bowl).  Mario basically caught a young team at the right time.  

 

Freeman has played Ohio State better because they have better talent.  They are much more clutch on defense because they have better talent.  They even forced Allar into the game winning INT. Penn State hasn't done that to teams because they don't have that kind of talent.  That Franklin keeps games close against superior teams speaks volumes.  They don't have the talent to stay that close.  They just don't.

 

I'm sure nobody in the nation expected Penn State to be in a position to beat OBD last year.  No one.  That's a testament to Franklin.  They had no business getting a drive to win the game, yet they were there. Just like far superior Ohio State in Eugene.  

 

 

When I discuss this with PSU fans, they bring up the chokes. Bi say you can't choke if you can't take control of a game.  Penn State can't control games against superior talent.  They haven't, and just like Indiana last year, it eventually shows up.  

 

Franklin made Vandy look legit.  Most coaches can't come close to matching that kind of performance .  As Auburn and Florida ( not to pick on you), and Tennessee have learned.  Talent matters.  A whole lot. 

 

We're just going to disagree here. Respectfully.  I simply believe James Franklin is the kind of coach to keep a contender like those teams I mentioned from falling behind like they have.  He's that good. 

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On 5/18/2025 at 8:59 AM, SoutheastDuck said:

For Penn State to be top 5 and stay top 5, they have to have better receivers. Who replaces Warren? their WRs last year were abysmal, Harrison Wallace was salvageable, but that's all they have returning (aside from Evans who had 3 catches their last 4 games) unless they brought in new talent from the portal?  That seems like a glaring weakness to me especially when Drew Allar is only an OK to good QB...  

 

They added, on paper, three good receivers from the portal. Spot on comment. Versus Notre Dame, no PSU WR caught a pass.

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On 5/18/2025 at 5:00 PM, Mike West said:

Talent matters.  A whole lot. 

 

We're just going to disagree here. Respectfully.  I simply believe James Franklin is the kind of coach to keep a contender like those teams I mentioned from falling behind like they have.  He's that good. 

You know, a case could be made, so I will. Day to me wins because, when, he has superior talent. Franklin apparently wins with far less talent. Coaching" Franklin> Day

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On 5/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

They added, on paper, three good receivers from the portal. Spot on comment. Versus Notre Dame, no PSU WR caught a pass.

Welp.  Dang.  No reason they shouldn’t be a top end program and honestly no reason they shouldn’t beat Oregon and tOSU.

 

 

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On 5/18/2025 at 6:49 PM, SoutheastDuck said:

Welp.  Dang.  No reason they shouldn’t be a top end program and honestly no reason they shouldn’t beat Oregon and tOSU.

 

 

I actually believe that will happen this year.  In fact, those were my thoughts before this discussion came up.

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On 5/17/2025 at 4:19 AM, Notalot said:

PSU is going to be tough this season and should be within the Top-5 in national rankings through season if they live up to the pre season hype.

 

I highlight this because Penn State has the kind of experienced roster that Michigan and Ohio State had in 23 and 24; maybe not quite as talented but very experienced. So I think that the Lions will be a tough out for everybody in the B1G. But...Franklin is no where near the coach as Harbaugh was and Cryin Day is. So who knows?

 

Oregon is very talented guys but not experienced at the offensive skill positions--they are a big question mark for me this year. Honesty compels me to feel somewhat the same queasiness when assessing the Dawgs fortunes this year in the SEC. I guess we'll just have to wait to see what unfolds.

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I didn't mean to imply that Franklin was a bad coach, he isn't. He is the kind of coach who can take an experienced roster and give anyone trouble, especially at home. The Ducks are going to be on their webbed toes and maybe catch a break of two to prevail in Happy Valley.

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On 5/18/2025 at 5:00 PM, Mike West said:

Mario beat essentially the same team Lanning defeated... When that unit was comprised of freshmen.  Including a frosg QB that blossomed  enough OBD world have lost horribly later in the year ( that was the second game of they year).

 

In essence, the entire front seven  in 22' was the same unit as  last year.  Lanning also exploited the edge in his Eugene game like Mario did ( Ohio State fixed up and promptly shut that down in the Rose Bowl).  Mario basically caught a young team at the right time.  

 

Freeman has played Ohio State better because they have better talent.  They are much more clutch on defense because they have better talent.  They even forced Allar into the game winning INT. Penn State hasn't done that to teams because they don't have that kind of talent.  That Franklin keeps games close against superior teams speaks volumes.  They don't have the talent to stay that close.  They just don't.

 

I'm sure nobody in the nation expected Penn State to be in a position to beat OBD last year.  No one.  That's a testament to Franklin.  They had no business getting a drive to win the game, yet they were there. Just like far superior Ohio State in Eugene.  

 

 

When I discuss this with PSU fans, they bring up the chokes. Bi say you can't choke if you can't take control of a game.  Penn State can't control games against superior talent.  They haven't, and just like Indiana last year, it eventually shows up.  

 

Franklin made Vandy look legit.  Most coaches can't come close to matching that kind of performance .  As Auburn and Florida ( not to pick on you), and Tennessee have learned.  Talent matters.  A whole lot. 

 

We're just going to disagree here. Respectfully.  I simply believe James Franklin is the kind of coach to keep a contender like those teams I mentioned from falling behind like they have.  He's that good. 

I see your point with what he did at Vanderbilt and I hear the concerns from Penn State people about the financial backing. But I hear Franklin makes ten million a year and he coaches at Penn State. At worst they bring in the fifth best classes in the B1G. But that's still top fifteen, I disagree with Notre Dame being more talented. Notre Dame had one great running back in love and one good receiver in Greathouse. Penn State had a better QB, two great RBs, and a first round TE.

 

Their defense was better up front imo. I don't see the case against Freeman other than his weak regular season. But Franklin beats everybody he's meant to and had the easiest playoff path possible. At some point the excuses have to stop and he has to win a third of his big games. I'm not asking him to even go 50/50. Just win one out of three. You are a ten million dollar coach at Penn State in the B1G.

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On 5/18/2025 at 5:00 PM, Mike West said:

Mario beat essentially the same team Lanning defeated... When that unit was comprised of freshmen.  Including a frosg QB that blossomed  enough OBD world have lost horribly later in the year ( that was the second game of they year).

 

In essence, the entire front seven  in 22' was the same unit as  last year.  Lanning also exploited the edge in his Eugene game like Mario did ( Ohio State fixed up and promptly shut that down in the Rose Bowl).  Mario basically caught a young team at the right time.  

 

Freeman has played Ohio State better because they have better talent.  They are much more clutch on defense because they have better talent.  They even forced Allar into the game winning INT. Penn State hasn't done that to teams because they don't have that kind of talent.  That Franklin keeps games close against superior teams speaks volumes.  They don't have the talent to stay that close.  They just don't.

 

I'm sure nobody in the nation expected Penn State to be in a position to beat OBD last year.  No one.  That's a testament to Franklin.  They had no business getting a drive to win the game, yet they were there. Just like far superior Ohio State in Eugene.  

 

 

When I discuss this with PSU fans, they bring up the chokes. Bi say you can't choke if you can't take control of a game.  Penn State can't control games against superior talent.  They haven't, and just like Indiana last year, it eventually shows up.  

 

Franklin made Vandy look legit.  Most coaches can't come close to matching that kind of performance .  As Auburn and Florida ( not to pick on you), and Tennessee have learned.  Talent matters.  A whole lot. 

 

We're just going to disagree here. Respectfully.  I simply believe James Franklin is the kind of coach to keep a contender like those teams I mentioned from falling behind like they have.  He's that good. 

I do see and respect the point you're making though. I just hear Penn State being listed as a blue blood and they have the history to back it up. I place the expectations of a traditional power in one of the big two leagues higher than I even do with Nebraska or Texas A&M. People are saying they are the favorites or number one team based off their returning talent, coordinators and what the last two champions have looked like in comparison. 

 

Until Franklin wins a game against a team with equal or greater talent, I don't buy into them as a champion. Michigan and Ohio State won big games, at least one a year. Oregon has won at least one or two big wins under Lanning. 

 

That's really my entire point. But I do see your's and respect where you're coming from and how you got there.

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"You are what your record says you are." Bill Parcells

 

Excellent effort at Vandy, but he was under .500 vs. the SEC, 11-13. 

 

James Franklin versus Top 10 opponents is 4-20 overall, and 3-17 at Penn State.

 

His team freezes at key moments. 1st and goal from the Buckeyes 5-yard line vs. Ohio State last season, scored no points, and the Ohio State O never gave PSU the ball again. A terrific defensive effort was wasted.

 

Two terrible late-game interceptions; one against OBD in the conference champ game and a game-changer vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. And an early unforced interception against Ohio State that led to a score and was the difference in the game. 

 

You have a Blue Chip roster, and your WRs catch no passes in the PO semifinal vs. Notre Dame.

 

Your team puts up 49 points in the Rose Bowl, and you lose the game. He can lose when he doesn't score and when he does score.

 

Perhaps, Jim Knowles will make the same difference on D he made in Columbus, and PSU will defeat OBD and TOSU this season. But defense, except in clutch moments, has not been the problem at Penn State. 

 

I believe that PSU will drop at least one of its games vs. the Os in 2025. 3-17 does not equate to learning from your losses.

 

 

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Now, losing to Georgia definitely is a Good loss, but that's what Day did in the '22 Peach Bowl. Mario and the prevent offense went into the 'shoe and beat the Buckeyes. Michigan beats Ohio State. Ohio State won the Natty last season and made up for the loss early in the season at Oregon. The Buckeyes had more talent than any other team in the country, the added schemes came from Chip, not Day. Day wins when the talent level is overwhelming, but he's not Phil Jackson. 

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The ILLINI, TOSU, and PSU are in. Where's OBD?

 

 

WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM

Penn State broke through with its first Playoff berth last year, so can it make the field in 2025? It can do so without breaking a sweat.

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On 5/19/2025 at 11:53 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

The ILLINI, TOSU, and PSU are in. Where's OBD?

 

"Where's Waldo makes more sense, but this is definitely a summertime prediction for good ol' Connor. 

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