In today’s world of College Football (CFB), there are more preseason rankings than there are attempts to solve for Pi. Mathematicians tell us that Pi cannot be solved; similarly, preseason rankings will never be spot on especially when we are referring to SEC teams. Yet, our Mr. FishDuck had to take a break from his gaming study at PA sportsbook ...

Do Schedules of SEC Playoff Contenders Match the Odds? | FishDuck

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In today’s world of College Football (CFB), there are more preseason rankings than there are attempts to solve for Pi. Mathematicians tell us...

 

Thank you, Mr. Editor, for doing your email to article magic. 😍

 

The SEC is doing the same thing over again in 2025 and expecting different results. Hmmm?

 

The conference schedules in 2025 are the same, except for a change in the game venues. Georgia plays Bama, Texas, and Ole Miss at home this season instead of part of the brutal conference road schedule the Dawgs played in 2024.

 

The media is gaga over 23andMe Archie Manning, but road games at Florida and Georgia, as well as rivalry games against Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, will challenge the Longhorns. Florida in The Swamp is a tough out, and QB DJ Lagway, and not a transfer from Yale, will likely be starting for the revenge-minded Gators.

 

The out-of-conference schedule has three cupcakes for Bevo to trample, but as of today, Texas is a 3-point under-steer on the road vs. The Ohio State University. Texas returns zero starters at WR, and its 2024 stud TE is also in the NFL. One starter returns on the O-line. 

 

Could top 25 No. 1 preseason composite-ranked Texas miss the 2025-26 playoffs? I, of course, do not know, but I like Georgia to win the SEC, finish in the top four ranked teams, have a 1st round bye, and this season, win the Sugar Bowl and advance to the semifinals. 

 

Kirby Smart went 2-0 vs. Texas last season and repeated as the SEC champion with a schedule, as Kirby made note of to Greg Sankey while receiving the championship trophy, that was too Dawg gone difficult for any other team not named Georgia. 

 

Based on roster talent, the SEC could place four and possibly five teams in this season's playoffs, but it would not surprise me to see SEC title contenders with three losses again being stiffed by the committee.

 

Have a great and safe 4th of July!

Jon...your research is top-notch!  I had no idea about the schedule that

Ole Miss has, and thus is set up to make the Playoffs...even if they are

not one of the top four SEC teams. 

 

Thanks so much for the article!

 

 

BSU being ranked higher than ASU was, well BS! But I guess ASU being picked to finish in last place in the B12 by the media poll, now disbanded, carried a lot of weight. Skattebo has scatted away to the NFL, but ASU is being picked to do pretty well in 2025.

 

Arch has a lot of weight on his shoulders. His name seems to be the counter against the serious departures from last season to be a real contender. n the second year of the DeBoer era I'm hearing that the Tide's defense could be one of the best in the country; good enough to handle Vandy and Okie this time, not to mention, Wisconsin?

 

 

I am thinking Texas (and Arch) will hear a lot of opposing crowds chanting O-VER RA-TED this year!

Out there on the internet I'm seeing that PAWL!!! is picking Texas to beat Osu2, "The force is strong with this one" PAWL doesn't really resemble Luke Skywalker, but ESPN is every bit the Death Star and PAWL is following orders. It's fine to predict Texas will win, but when that prediction is just part of the ESPN/SEC cacophony it loses its significance. 

On 7/4/2025 at 2:49 PM, 30Duck said:

Out there on the internet I'm seeing that PAWL!!! is picking Texas to beat Osu2, "The force is strong with this one" PAWL doesn't really resemble Luke Skywalker, but ESPN is every bit the Death Star and PAWL is following orders. It's fine to predict Texas will win, but when that prediction is just part of the ESPN/SEC cacophony it loses its significance. 

I actuality believe Texas will beat Ohio State in Columbus. I happen to think Arch is better than Ewers, with a returning WR that did well against OSU in the playoff, and Ohio State is replacing their entire defensive line.

I think the game looks a lot like last year's Texas/Michigan game. Not as big a winning margin, but Texas was the one team that schemed well to stop Johnathan Smith. With Ebuke gone, Ohio State is short one lethal WR. And that unit didn't dominate Texas last year.

Let's also remember Ohio State pulled a 14 point turnaround to win that game- it should have gone to OT. Texas knows they have the athletes to handle osu2, and osu2 is replacing both coordinators.

I'm putting my money on Texas. More than $100 to be exact. That's how confident I am about that game.

Ole PAWL though...that's plain SEC bias.

2 hours ago, Mike West said:

Ole PAWL though...that's plain SEC bias.

Exactly. You brought up some solid reasons for going Texas, and a $100.00, PAWL's just earning his salary.

4 hours ago, Mike West said:

I actuality believe Texas will beat Ohio State in Columbus. I happen to think Arch is better than Ewers, with a returning WR that did well against OSU in the playoff, and Ohio State is replacing their entire defensive line.

I think the game looks a lot like last year's Texas/Michigan game. Not as big a winning margin, but Texas was the one team that schemed well to stop Johnathan Smith. With Ebuke gone, Ohio State is short one lethal WR. And that unit didn't dominate Texas last year.

Let's also remember Ohio State pulled a 14 point turnaround to win that game- it should have gone to OT. Texas knows they have the athletes to handle osu2, and osu2 is replacing both coordinators.

I'm putting my money on Texas. More than $100 to be exact. That's how confident I am about that game.

Ole PAWL though...that's plain SEC bias.

Thanks, Mike. I respectfully demur, backed by my Vegas buddies and I having skin in this game.

All of Ewers' 2024 top targets, including a top drawer TE, are gone. 1 starter on the O line returns for Texas. The Longhorns' great D in 2024 was lit up by Clemson and ASU. Targeting is called as it should have been, and ASU wins the Peach Bowl and advances to play TOSU.

As much as the Texas D stymied Ohio State, the Buckeyes offense, after a flawless Rose Bowl game (😒) incurred nine penalties for 75 yards.

Smith will be super fired up to make folks forget about being shut down in the Cotton Bowl. It's not just Smith. Tate and Innis are very good WRs. Purdue transfer TE Max Klare is better than what the Buckeyes had at TE last season.

Four starters return on the O line, buttressed by OT Onianwa, a portal 4*, who transferred in from Rice.

Archie could not beat out 7th-round draft pick Quinn Ewers. Ewers led Texas to back-to-back semifinal game PO appearances. Archie's wins as a stater were over Mississippi State and two G5 teams.

I don't believe Sayin's play at QB could be any worse than the Michigan QB play versus Texas in 2024. Michigan's passing attack in 2024 was superior only to the three service academies. Sayin has much better receivers to throw to.

Ryan Day is 27-3 in Ohio Stadium. At Texas, Sark has one road win against a top 5 ranked team, defeating Bama in Tuscaloosa in 2023 before Bama had figured out the QB position.

My LV friends and I like Texas -2.5. Should be a terrific game.