Two interesting questions: does a top CFB Playoff contender’s schedule match it’s gaming odds to make the new 12 team Playoff field? Who are the best bets to make the Playoff when comparing odds to their schedules, according to FanDuel? Cool questions, and let’s apply them to the Big-10 conference for fun! Of course our own Mr. FishDuck took a ...

Big Playoff Contender Schedules vs. Actual Odds

SOS is why rankings don't have any validity until at least week 5, USC @ Illinois, Oregon at Penn State, big B1G games. Ohio State @ Washington, could this be interesting? Illinois @ Indiana in week 4.

Charles, thanks for another great editing job.

Looking at schedules and the odds, I think OBD, Ohio State, and Penn State will all return to the playoff, with at least one of the three having a 1st round bye and a good chance for the other two to host 1st round games. Many PO projections have No. 10 Miami playing No. 7 Oregon in Autzen. 😁

The B1G multi-million dollar question is whether the B1G will repeat with four teams in the PO field?

Illinois returns 16 and not 18 (my bad) starters. Indiana has plugged its personnel losses through the portal. We may witness an unofficial playoff play-in game when Illinois travels to Bloomington in Week 4. The Illini will have played a tough out-of-conference game at Duke. Indiana will have chomped down on three cupcakes.

Two things stood out to me from the first day of B1G media days. Cignetti justifying dropping a home-and-home series vs. UVA and replacing the Cavaliers with a G5 donut hole as being 'SEC-like scheduling.' CFB still relies on humans to determine the at-large playoff participants, no?

The playoff committee last season was dumped on by the SEC and the SEC's buddy, ESPN, for giving a spot to an Indiana team that had a weak SOS. Do Cig's comments help the Hoosiers' playoff 2025-26 cause?

Illinois in 2024 was the antithesis of USC, going 5-1 in one-score games. Will the ball bounce Illinois' way back-to-back? The schedule helps. Illinois plays Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and rival Northwestern, a B1G scheduling Superfecta, and plays USC and Ohio State at home. No OBD, Penn State, Michigan on the schedule.

In addition to the game at Indiana, road games at Duke and UW will not be easy wins. Illinois does have an off week before traveling to Seattle, while UW plays at Michigan the week before. This does not thrill UW coach Jedd Fisch.

(The other coach whose comments were not in line with preseason coach-speak was Maryland's Mike Locksley, repeatedly admitting that he 'lost the locker room in 2025.' Lost it because there was friction between the NIL Haves and Have Nots. WOW!)

If Michigan can figure out the QB position, the Blue (fitting) Chip Roster Wolverines have a schedule to make the playoffs. Michigan has a Week 2 marquee OOC game at Oklahoma. Win this game, and the nation will notice a Wolverines team that would be 3-0 in its last three games against SEC opponents.

In the conference, Michigan draws Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland, and misses OBD, Penn State, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa. The Blue play UW, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Games at Michigan State, Nebraska, and USC could be challenging.

It would be something for OBD to join the three B1G brand names in the 2025-26 playoffs.

9 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Looking at schedules and the odds, I think OBD, Ohio State, and Penn State will all return to the playoff, with at least one of the three having a 1st round bye and a good chance for the other two to host 1st round games. Many PO projections have No. 10 Miami playing No. 7 Oregon in Autzen

So great to actually talk about games! Cignetti just makes me a bigger fan everyday... Welcome back. Mario!

ESPN sees the OBD at Penn State White Out game being the swing game (no, it's not about golf) for both teams in 2025.

ESPN.com

Red River, Farmageddon and more: Swing games for every To...

We look at the key game that could determine whether each team's season is a success or a dud.

Jon, nobody does the research that you do! A super-interesting article that gives us a much better perspective than any of the 700 preseason articles by pundits with their uninformed, pithy predictions.

Give Me a B1G 5+ 😎 Of course, OBD at Penn State made the list.

Yardbarker

Five Big Ten games that will shape the CFP

The Big Ten is the big dog in college football right now, boasting the last two national champions and eight playoff teams in the last three seasons.

2 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

ESPN sees the OBD at Penn State White Out game being the swing game (no, it's not about golf) for both teams in 2025.

Wow, now that's a "pithy" prediction.