Two interesting questions: does a top CFB Playoff contender’s schedule match it’s gaming odds to make the new 12 team Playoff field? Who are the best bets to make the Playoff when comparing odds to their schedules, according to FanDuel? Cool questions, and let’s apply them to the Big-10 conference for fun! Of course our own Mr. FishDuck took a ...

Big Playoff Contender Schedules vs. Actual Odds

SOS is why rankings don't have any validity until at least week 5, USC @ Illinois, Oregon at Penn State, big B1G games. Ohio State @ Washington, could this be interesting? Illinois @ Indiana in week 4.

Charles, thanks for another great editing job.

Looking at schedules and the odds, I think OBD, Ohio State, and Penn State will all return to the playoff, with at least one of the three having a 1st round bye and a good chance for the other two to host 1st round games. Many PO projections have No. 10 Miami playing No. 7 Oregon in Autzen. 😁

The B1G multi-million dollar question is whether the B1G will repeat with four teams in the PO field?

Illinois returns 16 and not 18 (my bad) starters. Indiana has plugged its personnel losses through the portal. We may witness an unofficial playoff play-in game when Illinois travels to Bloomington in Week 4. The Illini will have played a tough out-of-conference game at Duke. Indiana will have chomped down on three cupcakes.

Two things stood out to me from the first day of B1G media days. Cignetti justifying dropping a home-and-home series vs. UVA and replacing the Cavaliers with a G5 donut hole as being 'SEC-like scheduling.' CFB still relies on humans to determine the at-large playoff participants, no?

The playoff committee last season was dumped on by the SEC and the SEC's buddy, ESPN, for giving a spot to an Indiana team that had a weak SOS. Do Cig's comments help the Hoosiers' playoff 2025-26 cause?

Illinois in 2024 was the antithesis of USC, going 5-1 in one-score games. Will the ball bounce Illinois' way back-to-back? The schedule helps. Illinois plays Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and rival Northwestern, a B1G scheduling Superfecta, and plays USC and Ohio State at home. No OBD, Penn State, Michigan on the schedule.

In addition to the game at Indiana, road games at Duke and UW will not be easy wins. Illinois does have an off week before traveling to Seattle, while UW plays at Michigan the week before. This does not thrill UW coach Jedd Fisch.

(The other coach whose comments were not in line with preseason coach-speak was Maryland's Mike Locksley, repeatedly admitting that he 'lost the locker room in 2025.' Lost it because there was friction between the NIL Haves and Have Nots. WOW!)

If Michigan can figure out the QB position, the Blue (fitting) Chip Roster Wolverines have a schedule to make the playoffs. Michigan has a Week 2 marquee OOC game at Oklahoma. Win this game, and the nation will notice a Wolverines team that would be 3-0 in its last three games against SEC opponents.

In the conference, Michigan draws Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland, and misses OBD, Penn State, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa. The Blue play UW, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Games at Michigan State, Nebraska, and USC could be challenging.

It would be something for OBD to join the three B1G brand names in the 2025-26 playoffs.

9 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Looking at schedules and the odds, I think OBD, Ohio State, and Penn State will all return to the playoff, with at least one of the three having a 1st round bye and a good chance for the other two to host 1st round games. Many PO projections have No. 10 Miami playing No. 7 Oregon in Autzen

So great to actually talk about games! Cignetti just makes me a bigger fan everyday... Welcome back. Mario!

ESPN sees the OBD at Penn State White Out game being the swing game (no, it's not about golf) for both teams in 2025.

ESPN.com

Red River, Farmageddon and more: Swing games for every To...

We look at the key game that could determine whether each team's season is a success or a dud.

Jon, nobody does the research that you do! A super-interesting article that gives us a much better perspective than any of the 700 preseason articles by pundits with their uninformed, pithy predictions.

Give Me a B1G 5+ 😎 Of course, OBD at Penn State made the list.

Yardbarker

Five Big Ten games that will shape the CFP

The Big Ten is the big dog in college football right now, boasting the last two national champions and eight playoff teams in the last three seasons.

2 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

ESPN sees the OBD at Penn State White Out game being the swing game (no, it's not about golf) for both teams in 2025.

Wow, now that's a "pithy" prediction.

Starting to ease into the previews; but, taking an early look I think the B1G is in for a very competitive year, with a lot of teams beating each other up.

I do see as many as 11 teams who could be pretty decent and win at least 8 in the regular season. I'm thinking maybe the conference champion at 10-2, which means about 5 teams at 9-3 and another 5 at 8-4. A real wild and competitive roller coaster (with a strong OOC for the B1G, I think the math works).

Not much of a gambler, but grabbed some win totals from one of the major books.

Penn State 10.5

tOSU 10.5

UO 10.5

Michigan 9.5

Illinois 8.5

Indiana 8.5

Iowa 7.5

Nebraska 7.5

USC 7.5

UW 7.5

Minnesota 6.5

Wisconsin 5.5

Rutgers 5.5

UCLA 5.5

Michigan State 5.5

Maryland 4.5

Northwestern 3.5

Purdue 3.5

I am thinking I would take the UNDER for all four of the top predicted teams: Penn State, tOSU, Oregon, and Michigan. I would also add the UNDER for: UCLA and Purdue.

The only OVERS that jump out are: Minnesota, Iowa, and maybe Northwestern.

The other 9 teams I'd say look about right on the number. I could see something like: Penn State (10-2), Oregon (9-3), tOSU (9-3), Illinois (9-3), Indiana (9-3), Iowa (9-3). Who goes and who misses the playoff?

( For example: Penn State loses at Iowa and at Ohio State -- tOSU loses to Texas, at Michigan, and at UW or to Minnesota -- Oregon loses at Penn State, at Iowa, and to Minnesota -- Iowa loses to Minnesota, at USC, and to end the regular season at Nebraska or early at Iowa State -- Indiana loses at Penn State, at Oregon, and at Iowa -- Illinois loses at Indiana, to USC, and to tOSU)

Edited 7 hours ago7 hr by AnotherOD
30Duck was right

4 minutes ago, AnotherOD said:

Oregon loses at Penn State, at Iowa, and at UW -

Hmmm.? Objectively, Penn State should win. Iowa, could happen, but the Huskies? Can't do it.

I know, typing that scenario didn't seem quite right. How about "Oregon loses at Penn State, at Iowa, and to Minnesota" instead? Will fix it.

I would be a bit surprised to see Oregon losing at Autzen in 2025. If throwing out a 9-3 regular season, at UW would seem a higher probability than at Northwestern or at Rutgers or at home to Minnesota (or to USC).

UW has been pretty tough at home recently. In the last 10 UO/UW games, it looks like 5-5 (though 3-2 at Husky Stadium, 2-2 at Autzen, 0-1 neutral site). As ugly as this stat is, over the last 10 contests, Oregon has been outscored 288-330 (allowing 33 points per game yuck). Absolutely that was bad energy and needed fixed!

Edited 7 hours ago7 hr by AnotherOD

30 minutes ago, AnotherOD said:

I know, typing that scenario didn't seem quite right. How about "Oregon loses at Penn State, at Iowa, and to Minnesota" instead? Will fix it.

I would be a bit surprised to see Oregon losing at Autzen in 2025. If throwing out a 9-3 regular season, at UW would seem a higher probability than at Northwestern or at Rutgers or at home to Minnesota (or to USC).

UW has been pretty tough at home recently. In the last 10 UO/UW games, it looks like 5-5 (though 3-2 at Husky Stadium, 2-2 at Autzen, 0-1 neutral site). As ugly as this stat is, over the last 10 contests, Oregon has been outscored 288-330 (allowing 33 points per game yuck). Absolutely that was bad energy and needed fixed!

OD, thanks for your thoughts. I see the three B1G 10.5 win teams, OBD, Ohio State, and Penn State, finishing no worse than 10-2. Penn State plays both OBD and Ohio State. TOSU and OBD miss one another.

These three teams have a Blue Chip Roster advantage (along with SC and Michigan) and the schedules to advance to the PO. Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, and Rutgers have more difficult schedules than the B1G 3.

In addition to the B1G 3, I see one of Illinois, Indiana, or Michigan advancing to the PO. All three of these teams have favorable schedules.

If the B1G only sends its champion to the PO, what other teams do you see making the 12-team field?

Again, thanks for the comment. Minnesota, being a Friday night game after OBD plays at Iowa the week before, and the Gophers being off the week before, is a potential trap game.

I don't see Oregon losing at home, but I really don't see losing 3 on the road either

1 hour ago, Jon Joseph said:

is a potential trap game.

Not directed at you Jon, I just dislike the whole idea of a "trap game", now a potential trap game?