Below is from another site, and gives us pause. Have we been fooled by Hoosier success, or is the 'Cig' that good of a coach to outperform?

For those worried about Indiana snapping the nation's longest home winning streak, here are a couple of stats for you:

The collective record of the teams Indiana has beaten in the last two years is 45-63.

Of their ten wins against FBS teams in the last two seasons, only 3 have come against teams that finished the regular season last year with a winning record or currently have a winning record this year. Those include 7-5 Michigan and 3-2 Iowa.

Indiana's talent composite this year is No. 72 in the country. Thats lower than Ok State and Oregon State. Obviously they are echelons better than those teams, but still.

Dan Lanning has lost 6 games in 4 years. Those losses came against the No. 3, No. 25 (x2), No. 2, No. 20 and No. 54 teams in talent composite. The one outlier there is 2022 Oregon State. (Three years ago...)

Against teams not in the top 25 of talent composite Dan is 32-1.

Not saying Indiana can’t win or that they aren’t a good team, but if they do win, it would be bucking every single trend we’ve seen in Dan Lanning and Curt Cignettis tenures.

Sucking that lemon is sour? Wait until you get to Autzen...

I think Cig is much like Kelly back in the day. He's created lightning in a bottle, has a system that works, his kids believe in him and is getting results. Lanning's team resembles tOSU or UGA in that he has 4-5 star players doing 4-5 star things. I expect Indy to be better than we think, the score to be closer than we think but in the end OBD's relentless drive to seal the deal will be too much. I also expect some Autzen shock to have an effect.

18 minutes ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

I think Cig is much like Kelly back in the day. He's created lightning in a bottle, has a system that works, his kids believe in him and is getting results. Lanning's team resembles tOSU or UGA in that he has 4-5 star players doing 4-5 star things. I expect Indy to be better than we think, the score to be closer than we think but in the end OBD's relentless drive to seal the deal will be too much. I also expect some Autzen shock to have an effect.

I agree. He's a fantastic coach for a mid school like IU. Maybe he can do more with more but right now you have to respect the results considering the resources.

With 2 weeks to game plan against IU who is the best remaining team on our schedule, I expect our coaches to have solutions to the things IU wants to do, especially after seeing Iowa having success shutting down their offense and Illinois showing what not to do.

The man has won everywhere he has coached. In 14 years of being a head coach, he has never had a losing season.

His father, Frank Cignetti, Sr., coached at Indiana University, Pennsylvania (IUP), and West Virginia, and is a member of the College Football Hall of Fame.

Curt was a valued assistant for Nick Saban at Bama. He took a huge pay cut when he left Bama to coach IUP. As he has said, he made a bet on himself, which turned into an $8 million a year deal at Indiana.

He took the 'losingest program' in CFB to the PO in 2024, and has the Hoosiers in the PO hunt in 2025. Many experts predicted his team would regress this season. I believed and so opined that this Indiana team could be this season's Indiana. It looks like this team is better than last season's PO team. It is better on both LOS.

As a P4 head coach, Cignetti has two losses. On the road against Natty champ Ohio State, and on the road at Natty runner-up Notre Dame; 0-2 against two top 10 opponents. Only two B1G coaches have winning records against top 25 opponents: Danno and Ryan Day. Many of Dan Lanning's and Ryan Day's B1G wins have come against teams that finished .500 or lower.

A program like James Madison, now a Sun Belt member, will have many losses against P4 teams out of conference (OOC), as will the other conference members. When Cignetti coached JMU before it moved up to the FBS, he defeated many FCS top 25 opponents. His teams with similar financial resources defeat the majority of teams with similar resources.

Cignetti was drilled last season and this season for playing a featherweight OOC schedule. In Michigan's 2023 champ season, it played junk OOC, ditto Ohio State last season, and Penn State this season.

After the loss at Ohio State, Texas posted home wins over San Jose State, UTEP, and FCS opponent Sam Houston State. Ole Miss has defeated Georgia State and Tulane OOC, plays Wazzu this Saturday, and plays The Citadel in the penultimate week of the regular season. As Cig said, he's only following the SEC OOC model.

Comparative scores are deceptive. Nevertheless, last season, Indiana defeated a team that beat Alabama and blew out a Nebraska team that Ohio State struggled to defeat in Columbus.

Do I think Indiana will defeat Oregon in Autzen? No. But OBD could struggle to cover the -10.5 spread. I think Indiana will hang with OBD into the 2nd half.

I do not doubt that Dan Lanning is taking next Saturday's game seriously. This could be the only other ranked opponent OBD plays the rest of the regular season. Indiana will show up with something to prove from Cig on down. Fired up to hand OBD its first regular-season Big Ten loss.

On 10/11/25, there will be more than a couple of future NFL players across the LOS, possibly QB'd by a 1st round draft pick.

However 😁, Hose Down the Hoosiers! Put Out That Cig!

9 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

He took the 'losingest program' in CFB to the PO in 2024, and has the Hoosiers in the PO hunt in 2025. Many experts predicted his team would regress this season. I believed and so opined that this Indiana team could be this season's Indiana. It looks like this team is better than last season's PO team. It is better on both LOS.

Not surprised by your assessment (once again). Indiana IS better on both sides of the LOS. I agree with FishDuck here. That talent still doesn't measure up to what OBD have on the LOS. I also believe Lupoi's Secondary and Coverage Rules will be tested this game. I was pleasantly surprised Lupoi scrapped the Mint Defense (at least the formation) for most of the game in Happy Valley. I will repeat for teh Umpteenth time, I do not believe it is a good defense-unless of course you have NFL talent at your disposal (that's why it looked so awesome in Athens).

I happen to believe Indiana will still struggle against the most physical teams. Not as much, but it will be a deciding factor in their games against the elite teams. However, Cignetti is an elite coach, and I believe he is a year away from solving some of the disadvantages (think Max Protect like Penn State used to get their first touchdown on Saturday). I also happen to believe Coach Lanning is growing as we speak. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't minimize the Mint scheme and start using all of the talent his team has on defense. They are much better in a 3-4 scheme, and the modified version of the 4-3 they have been using this year. I believe those two schemes will stop almost every offense they face ( I may explain why in a topic post later in the year if I have time). Now I look at it strategically, I can't explain the technical aspect of it like a coach does, but I'm seeing Lupoi using more creativity with his players-which is enhancing their strengths.

What Lupoi and DL decide to do with Indiana's offense will tell me how "serious they are at winning a title". I put that in quotes because I'm a Hack. I've coached before, but nowhere near at their level and in an atmosphere where players are turning college football upside down in the NIL era. So I give many hats off to the progress I've seen, and the fact that Lanning is doing it the way he wants to and he is performing above lofty expectations.

I'll say this. You Jon, surely bring info to the table that really sharpens my vision. Thanks my good friend.