Marsh Power PAC Rankings - Week 11

[David Marsh]

Well the Pac-12 made this easier on me this week, everyone who was predicted to win did in fact win. So there is some changes but nothing too drastic. The game that would have made the biggest change in cementing the pecking order of the Pac-12 wasn't even played as Cal v USC was postponed. 

 

1. Oregon (9-1) (6-1) - Oregon beat Washington State and barring a catastrophe in the last two games, Oregon will have complete control over the North. They will have to beat Utah twice in order to win the Conference Championship but in truth Oregon does match up better against Utah than Washington State. 

 

2. Utah (7-3) (6-1) - Utah is clearly the No. 2 team in the Pac-12 at this point. They had a scare against Arizona but they did manage to finish that game out with a win. Oregon and Utah square off next Saturday which will determine which team leads the PAC. 

 

3. Washington State (5-5) (4-3) - Washington State could not survive Oregon's rushing attack though they did prove to be pretty difficult with their downfield passing game. This team can score points and their defense is certainly annoying. For the time being they are the No. 3 team in the Pac-12, mostly because they have lost to those ranked above them and beaten those ranked below them... all except USC that is. The placement of WSU is also troubling because they are still not bowl eligable. However, that should change when they play Arizona this weekend, or not in which they will not belong at No. 3. 

 

4. Arizona State (7-3) (5-2) - Should Arizona State be ahead of WSU? Maybe, however, ASU also lost pretty badly to WSU at home. So for the time being they can sit here at No. 4. Arizona State has to travel to Corvallis this weekend to play Oregon State. Arizona schools and North West Schools tend not to fair well in each other's climates in November. This may be a difficult game for them. 

 

5. Oregon State (6-4) (4-3) - This is the first time since 2013 that Oregon State is bowl eligible. They could also very well rise in these rankings after this weekend with a win against ASU at home. OSU has been a strong team at home this year but not so much when they are on the road. So playing this game at home gives Oregon State an even greater edge as it will be a cool November night, possibly with rain, that will make the Sun Devils uncomfortable. 

 

6. UCLA (6-4) (4-3) - UCLA is another team to join the Pac-12's bowling club. They defeated Colorado quite soundly to reach their sixth win. UCLA looks like a good team but certainly no where near the top of the Pac-12. Will a bowl game win be enough to save Chip's job though? We will have to find out. This is also the Battle for LA weekend, so a win over the Trojans would also go a long way for job security. 

 

7. Washington (4-6) (3-4) - Washington once again sits perfectly in these rankings. They have lost to all the teams above them and beat all the teams beneath them. That should continue to hold true after this week where Washington gets Colorado. However, Colorado may take advantage of Washington's coaching problems and beat them. To make this even more of a terrifying possibility for Husky fans this game is away from the safety of Husky Stadium. Washington has only won one game on the road in two years. 

 

8. USC (4-5) (3-4) - USC sits at No. 8 because I cannot in good faith but them any higher. They are without their top receiving target in Drake London and that plays a bigger role than the problem of having two quarterbacks, which usually means they have no starting quarterback. 

 

9. California (3-6) (2-4) - The game Cal was supposed to play against USC on Saturday was cancelled due to covid protocols. This game will be made up from the sound of it and in truth both teams do have time to actually make this game up this season. Neither team is bowl eligible and it is unlikely either team at the end of the season, so it is unlikely this game will determine either team's bowl eligibility. So might as well let the Cal and USC game be their "bowl" game. 

 

10. Colorado (3-7) (2-5) - Colorado has a real opportunity this weekend against Washington. Washington has better athletes on paper than Colorado but the coaching at Washington is a mess. Colorado has started to figure out its offensive problems and their defense remains decent. Washington's offense isn't any better after the firing of Donovan and Lake but just created more program instability. There is an opportunity here for Colorado to score a final win of the season. Lets see if they can take it. 

 

11. Stanford (3-7) (2-5) - Stanford has had to dig deep into their reserves. If only Oregon faced Stanford now instead of when we did, there would be no doubt who would win that game. Stanford has Cal this weekend, which hopefully happens. If Stanford is still playing their reserves like they are then Cal should win that game, even coming off a covid lockdown. This game will probably be more competitive than it should. 

 

12. Arizona (1-9) (1-6) - Arizona has reliably been at the bottom of the conference and that will not change. However, Arizona is playing with a whole lot of heart and determination. I have said it time and time again, but I think this Arizona team is pretty well coached and will be a threat in a few years time. Though the question is, can they beat Washington State and with the performance they put on against Utah the answer is a solid... maybe. I don't think it is likely, I think WSU will have too much firepower for them to match but maybe Washington is hung over from their Oregon loss and that would be all it takes for Arizona to win. 

 

The season is fast approaching and these rankings are going to shift very little. There are a couple opportunities for teams to change their status but for the most part the top half and the bottom half are pretty much set in stone. Where teams come in those halves is the real question. The Pac-12 has five bowl eligible teams now, it would be nice to have at least six and have half the conference go bowling, and WSU is the most likely team to be that sixth team but there will not be seven Pac-12 teams that go bowling unless there are some major upsets. 

 

Please disagree with me if you feel I have gotten something wrong. I always love to talk about this stuff. 

[Duck1984]

While I struggle when it comes to OSU, WSU, and ASU based on a combination of head scratcher losses and head-to-head results, I can’t argue with your selections David.

 

WSU should win out, keeping them at #3.

 

I expect OSU to be a tough out the rest of the season.  My guess is they end up ahead of ASU after this weekend and lose the 2021 Battle for Oregon to finish at #4.

 

ASU should finish 1 - 1 for #5, but may have trouble with an improving Arizona.

 

As always, I appreciate your analysis David!

 

 

 

 

 

[Duck 1972]

I agree great analysis. I would switch UCLA to 3rd and move everything down 1. I believe the Bruins have loss to Fresno State that shouldn't have happened then lost to Oregon, ASU at home with good games and then @ Utah without their QB. They also have the 2nd best win ooc over LSU.

[David Marsh]

On 11/15/2021 at 3:42 PM, Duck1984 said:

ASU should finish 1 - 1 for #5, but may have trouble with an improving Arizona.

 

I do think Arizona might sneak in two wins to finish the season if their opponents are caught sleeping. Utah got away with it but this Arizona team is playing with a fire that is rare for a team with a 1-9 record. I've been high on this team for awhile now, which is funny to say about a 1-9 team but I do think they have one of the best coaching hires of the last off season. Just give them a couple of years to prove it. 

 

Or they will just prove me wrong which is also possible. 

[Duck1984]

On 11/15/2021 at 3:59 PM, Duck 1972 said:

I agree great analysis. I would switch UCLA to 3rd and move everything down 1. I believe the Bruins have loss to Fresno State that shouldn't have happened then lost to Oregon, ASU at home with good games and then @ Utah without their QB. They also have the 2nd best win ooc over LSU.

I am fine leaving UCLA at #6, as they will not have beaten a team above them in David’s ranking.  But that was a good win over LSU.

[Jon Joseph]

Marsh. this is mellow. But the Beavs will defeat ASU in Corvallis. 

 

ASU had to rally to win in Seattle against a back up coach. The Beavs is tough at home. All OR ST Ls have come on the road this season. 1 away win, vs USC.

 

The Beavs came back against Utah at home running the ball. The Ducks win in SLC Saturday running the ball. 

 

If UCLA does not win at SC Saturday Kelly could be gone?

[David Marsh]

On 11/15/2021 at 7:29 PM, Jon Joseph said:

But the Beavs will defeat ASU in Corvallis. 

 

I completely agree. I firmly believe the Beavers will win against ASU this weekend. Though as of what has transgressed so far this season I feel ASU is just ahead of the Beavers for the time being. Come Saturday... I think the Beavers show they are the better team. 

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

On 11/15/2021 at 2:38 PM, David Marsh said:

Please disagree with me if you feel I have gotten something wrong. I always love to talk about this stuff. 

The only people who think you’re wrong work for ESPN. How could you possibly rank a one loss Oregon ahead of three loss Utah? 19? 19!!!  
 

However,  I shot and have marinaded a crow yesterday just in case my confidence in this weekend is misguided. 
 

Ducks are a better more complete team. But I do wonder if the Ducks could win a high scoring shootout. 

[David Marsh]

On 11/16/2021 at 6:30 AM, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

But I do wonder if the Ducks could win a high scoring shootout. 

 

That is a very good question. I don't think they can at this time... however, they are built in such a way to avoid a straight up shoot out. Oregon's offense has been able to grind out the clock and the defense has been able to get enough stops to make life difficult on opposing offenses to really avoid a high scoring shootout. 

 

I guess the game that is the closest to a shootout is the game against UCLA.. however, that one would have looked like a more dominant victory if not for the two turnovers in the 4th quarter. 

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

On 11/16/2021 at 9:58 AM, David Marsh said:

however, they are built in such a way to avoid a straight up shoot out.

Agreed. But watching some of the deep throws the defense has given up makes me leery of teams like tosu who Chuck it all over to great receivers and with consistent success. 
 

KT and an improved D line sure helps prevent opposing QBs from having enough time and hope that does the trick going go forward with some improved man coverage.