There is no doubt College Football’s newly expanded Playoffs have changed the definition of success, as a handful of teams consider themselves annual title contenders. They expect to reach the Championship Game every single year. And so do we as fans. Ever since Bo Nix’s stellar emergence in an Oregon uniform, the Ducks have been considered a lethal threat on ...

Who Do YOU Believe the Oregon Ducks Are?

Great article to stimulate our thinking Mike, and I do want to encourage any readers who have something to say? Write it up and email it to me at charles@fishduck.com as I welcome guest articles, especially in the off-season. (I need articles for our backlink orders that come in to pay the bills of both sites.)

You took me down memory lane, and what I and many Oregon fans feel is that...."it is our turn." We have been hosed, or cheated out of so many opportunities by injuries, bad calls, bad luck, etc. But while we are due, I also acknowledge what you wrote in your article in that...it is hard to win a 'Natty and we do need a little luck with injuries, with matchups in the Playoffs, with the bounces of the ball, or a replay showing grass blades touching a leg, etc.

Dan Lanning has this program at an elite level, as we will always be in the preseason top-ten--my belief. Now we need that final "ooomf" to get us over the line. Will it be a special player that emerges, or some new tactic or strategy that a new DC or OC unveils at a big moment? That is what if fun to watch for!

Thanks again for a fun article, Mike.

I think that the larger the field the lower the probability we win a Natty under Dan Lanning.

If the playoffs stayed at 4 teams, we would be basically guaranteed to win a Natty in the next 3-5 years.

But it didn't. The field expanded requiring more near 50:50 probability games to be won cutting your odds in half with every additional game.

And then there is NIL combined with the expanded playoffs that is levelling the playing field by spreading out the player and coaching talent.

No matter the size of the playoff field, about 2/3-3/4 of that number of teams has a chance to win given enough years for boosters to adjust.

It's just probabilities, and we can be in that conversation every year as contenders, but as one of 8+ that could win it all.

I think we are going to win a whole lot of games next year and I plan on enjoying every single one, but I've decided the probabilities of winning a Natty are so poor I'm not going to get wrapped around the axle about it.

Thanks, Mike. It's always great to 'hear' from you, terrific articles and comments-wise.

OBD is 2-for-2 in qualifying for the 12-team playoff.

In 2024-25, OBD went 1-1 versus the team south of Michigan. Because of the screwed-up seeding format, OBD played Ohio State in the 2nd round instead of the winner of the Boise State at Indiana 1st round game. Against one of these two teams, Oregon shakes off the rust and wins the Rose Bowl.

My guess is that no other No. 1 seed in the postseason history of college sports playoffs, team and individual, has ever been hosed over as badly as was No. 1 seed Oregon.

The other seeding bad juju also involved the Rose Bowl. Joey Harrington and OBD, and not Nebraska, should have played Miami for the BCS title. However, was there a Rose Bowl opponent that could have defeated that Hurricanes team that embarrassed Nebraska 37-14? How about NO!

There's bad luck, and then there's being screwed over so badly by the system in place that the rules are changed the following season. 🤬

Last season, a group of wounded Ducks lost its second game in a two-loss season to the champion Indiana team playing with the Heisman Trophy winner at QB. Had the 2nd loss been played in Bloomington, Indiana, instead of in Atlanta, 30,000 to 40,000 fewer Hoosiers fans would have been in attendance.

This was the second occasion in 2025-26 that the Ducks had to travel thousands of miles more than their opponent. Under the current playoff format, Oregon is odds-on to be the 'victim' of geography. Call this 'bad luck' if you so choose, but you cannot Duck geography.

Urban Meyer's Ohio State team that defeated OBD was loaded with future NFL players. Same for Ryan Day's championship Ohio State team. Both teams had and benefited from a roster advantage.

Indiana? Even playing at home, Miami could not overcome the fickle finger of football fate that came up pointing at the biggest rebound in the history of college football; a history that goes back to 1895 when Yale went 16-0.

So yes, to win it all, you have to be lucky as well as good.

The Auburn and $cam loss was a referee's hose job at the hands of Big Ten refs who didn't have the foresight to see they were favoring the SEC over a one-day B1G brother. 😧

But the two champ game losses to Ohio State and the home and Peach Bowl loss to Indiana? The Buckeyes and the Hossiers had the better team, the better-coached, and better-prepared teams. Teams that also, for the most part, avoided the injury bug.

Season five for Danno. It took Kirby Smart six seasons to win it all and six seasons for Ryan to win the Day.

Let's hope that for OBD, timing will soon meet opportunity. This season is the only time under the current broadcast agreement that the playoff champ game will be played in the Pacific time zone. See you in Las Vegas?

Can't win it all if you ain't playing for it all. No thrill of victory 😍 without the possible agony of defeat. 🥶

Thanks again, Mike!

1 hour ago, Solar said:

I think that the larger the field the lower the probability we win a Natty under Dan Lanning.

If the playoffs stayed at 4 teams, we would be basically guaranteed to win a Natty in the next 3-5 years.

But it didn't. The field expanded requiring more near 50:50 probability games to be won cutting your odds in half with every additional game.

And then there is NIL combined with the expanded playoffs that is levelling the playing field by spreading out the player and coaching talent.

No matter the size of the playoff field, about 2/3-3/4 of that number of teams has a chance to win given enough years for boosters to adjust.

It's just probabilities, and we can be in that conversation every year as contenders, but as one of 8+ that could win it all.

I think we are going to win a whole lot of games next year and I plan on enjoying every single one, but I've decided the probabilities of winning a Natty are so poor I'm not going to get wrapped around the axle about it.

Oh, I like your comment Solar. Much to chew on regarding the odds. To think, I didn't believe Miami deserved to be in the playoff. I thought Texas did despite loathing the SEC. Texas scheduled to risk three losses. Miami didn't, and Miami lost to basic teams( though Texas did lose to Florida-sorry GatFlorida but Florida was extremely disappointing this year, given they were supposed to be very talented).

Now imagine another Ohio State circa 2014 moment when a team blasts an equal so dramatically that they sneak into the playoffs while they are hot. Will that steal DL's thunder? Will Dan Lanning get some luck, or like Cignetti find ways to lesson the blow of talent gaps by flat out finding solutions to every problem lack of talent presents? Because in my opinon, boy oh boy did Lanning upgrade performance based on his team's talent versus really talented teams the past two years.

Indiana crushed the narrative that coaching up isn't a possible method to win a title. Indiana didn't sneak in. They blew down little piggy and big piggy houses. Neither straw nor stone stopped the Hoosiers. And while they did catch some breaks after late game mistakes, those mistakes were very few all season-which is why they slayed teams like Ohio State and Oregon.

Your premise is solid. It will take talent, massive coaching prowess, luck and momentum to win a title. Now that the playoff field has expanded, teams with enough talent like Cignetti's pre-season predicted Big Ten 17th talent laden Hoosiers can win a natty.

2 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Thanks, Mike. It's always great to 'hear' from you, terrific articles and comments-wise.

OBD is 2-for-2 in qualifying for the 12-team playoff.

In 2024-25, OBD went 1-1 versus the team south of Michigan. Because of the screwed-up seeding format, OBD played Ohio State in the 2nd round instead of the winner of the Boise State at Indiana 1st round game. Against one of these two teams, Oregon shakes off the rust and wins the Rose Bowl.

My guess is that no other No. 1 seed in the postseason history of college sports playoffs, team and individual, has ever been hosed over as badly as was No. 1 seed Oregon.

The other seeding bad juju also involved the Rose Bowl. Joey Harrington and OBD, and not Nebraska, should have played Miami for the BCS title. However, was there a Rose Bowl opponent that could have defeated that Hurricanes team that embarrassed Nebraska 37-14? How about NO!

There's bad luck, and then there's being screwed over so badly by the system in place that the rules are changed the following season. 🤬

Last season, a group of wounded Ducks lost its second game in a two-loss season to the champion Indiana team playing with the Heisman Trophy winner at QB. Had the 2nd loss been played in Bloomington, Indiana, instead of in Atlanta, 30,000 to 40,000 fewer Hoosiers fans would have been in attendance.

This was the second occasion in 2025-26 that the Ducks had to travel thousands of miles more than their opponent. Under the current playoff format, Oregon is odds-on to be the 'victim' of geography. Call this 'bad luck' if you so choose, but you cannot Duck geography.

Urban Meyer's Ohio State team that defeated OBD was loaded with future NFL players. Same for Ryan Day's championship Ohio State team. Both teams had and benefited from a roster advantage.

Indiana? Even playing at home, Miami could not overcome the fickle finger of football fate that came up pointing at the biggest rebound in the history of college football; a history that goes back to 1895 when Yale went 16-0.

So yes, to win it all, you have to be lucky as well as good.

The Auburn and $cam loss was a referee's hose job at the hands of Big Ten refs who didn't have the foresight to see they were favoring the SEC over a one-day B1G brother. 😧

But the two champ game losses to Ohio State and the home and Peach Bowl loss to Indiana? The Buckeyes and the Hossiers had the better team, the better-coached, and better-prepared teams. Teams that also, for the most part, avoided the injury bug.

Season five for Danno. It took Kirby Smart six seasons to win it all and six seasons for Ryan to win the Day.

Let's hope that for OBD, timing will soon meet opportunity. This season is the only time under the current broadcast agreement that the playoff champ game will be played in the Pacific time zone. See you in Las Vegas?

Can't win it all if you ain't playing for it all. No thrill of victory 😍 without the possible agony of defeat. 🥶

Thanks again, Mike!

Jon,

We've had more than enough tough hurdles to jump. We also haven't had the kind of talent these blue bloods have consistently fielded. But we were more talented than Auburn. Nobody will convince me otherwise. Chip just refused to drop Little Boy and Big Boy on Hiroshima that day. That and a decision to run inside instead of outside on a crucial 4th and 1 mid third quarter.

I also believe we had more talent that Indiana. But they had more experienced coaches and really got the most out of their Band of Brothers than we did out of some pretty elite talent. They didn't make but one mistake over two games. One. We fielded a season's worth. One thing I hope Lanning does is use that American Arsenal of Nuclear Bombs this year. I don't care if they're accurate, I want the threat to scare teams into opening up OBD's pretty effective running game. Teams needs to loosen up the box. Nuclear Power does that.

I'll never say there are no longer any excuses. Lanning has us right where we want to be. On everyone's tongue. Whether it's to make fun of us because they think we'll choke, or because they know we are elite. People no longer ignore us. WE DECIDE WHO WINS TITLES. We really do.

Edited 5 hours ago5 hr by Mike West
Addressed Charles initially instead of Jon

2 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

Great article to stimulate our thinking Mike, and I do want to encourage any readers who have something to say? Write it up and email it to me at charles@fishduck.com as I welcome guest articles, especially in the off-season. (I need articles for our backlink orders that come in to pay the bills of both sites.)

You took me down memory lane, and what I and many Oregon fans feel is that...."it is our turn." We have been hosed, or cheated out of so many opportunities by injuries, bad calls, bad luck, etc. But while we are due, I also acknowledge what you wrote in your article in that...it is hard to win a 'Natty and we do need a little luck with injuries, with matchups in the Playoffs, with the bounces of the ball, or a replay showing grass blades touching a leg, etc.

Dan Lanning has this program at an elite level, as we will always be in the preseason top-ten--my belief. Now we need that final "ooomf" to get us over the line. Will it be a special player that emerges, or some new tactic or strategy that a new DC or OC unveils at a big moment? That is what if fun to watch for!

Thanks again for a fun article, Mike.

Sure thing Charles.

We all want that elusive title. It certainly would shut up lots of haters. I'm still proud though, because Nattys these days go through us. You have to be able to beat US to win a Natty. That is so far from my first experience of being a Duck fan. Now we destroy USC. Now we chant Rose Bowl to the Fuskies. Now SEC teams can't wait to "silence us". Now Ohio State fans hate us. Michigan fans are scared of us. We get respect and hate on the same level as the Blue Bloods.

Ain't it Cool?

18 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Thanks, Mike. It's always great to 'hear' from you, terrific articles and comments-wise.

OBD is 2-for-2 in qualifying for the 12-team playoff.

In 2024-25, OBD went 1-1 versus the team south of Michigan. Because of the screwed-up seeding format, OBD played Ohio State in the 2nd round instead of the winner of the Boise State at Indiana 1st round game. Against one of these two teams, Oregon shakes off the rust and wins the Rose Bowl.

My guess is that no other No. 1 seed in the postseason history of college sports playoffs, team and individual, has ever been hosed over as badly as was No. 1 seed Oregon.

The other seeding bad juju also involved the Rose Bowl. Joey Harrington and OBD, and not Nebraska, should have played Miami for the BCS title. However, was there a Rose Bowl opponent that could have defeated that Hurricanes team that embarrassed Nebraska 37-14? How about NO!

There's bad luck, and then there's being screwed over so badly by the system in place that the rules are changed the following season. 🤬

Last season, a group of wounded Ducks lost its second game in a two-loss season to the champion Indiana team playing with the Heisman Trophy winner at QB. Had the 2nd loss been played in Bloomington, Indiana, instead of in Atlanta, 30,000 to 40,000 fewer Hoosiers fans would have been in attendance.

This was the second occasion in 2025-26 that the Ducks had to travel thousands of miles more than their opponent. Under the current playoff format, Oregon is odds-on to be the 'victim' of geography. Call this 'bad luck' if you so choose, but you cannot Duck geography.

Urban Meyer's Ohio State team that defeated OBD was loaded with future NFL players. Same for Ryan Day's championship Ohio State team. Both teams had and benefited from a roster advantage.

Indiana? Even playing at home, Miami could not overcome the fickle finger of football fate that came up pointing at the biggest rebound in the history of college football; a history that goes back to 1895 when Yale went 16-0.

So yes, to win it all, you have to be lucky as well as good.

The Auburn and $cam loss was a referee's hose job at the hands of Big Ten refs who didn't have the foresight to see they were favoring the SEC over a one-day B1G brother. 😧

But the two champ game losses to Ohio State and the home and Peach Bowl loss to Indiana? The Buckeyes and the Hossiers had the better team, the better-coached, and better-prepared teams. Teams that also, for the most part, avoided the injury bug.

Season five for Danno. It took Kirby Smart six seasons to win it all and six seasons for Ryan to win the Day.

Let's hope that for OBD, timing will soon meet opportunity. This season is the only time under the current broadcast agreement that the playoff champ game will be played in the Pacific time zone. See you in Las Vegas?

Can't win it all if you ain't playing for it all. No thrill of victory 😍 without the possible agony of defeat. 🥶

Thanks again, Mike!

I wasn't going to reply but I have to Jon ... LOL

If the UO IU 2nd game would have been in Bloomington instead of Atlanta there would not have been 30-40,000 less IU fans. They would have bought as many tickets as possible just like they did in the peach bowl. Fewer fans ?? Sure ... IU's stadium doesn't hold 56,000 so the Peach Bowl around ~77,000, there would around 21,000 less IU fans.

IU really didn't avoid the injury bug as you claim. Early in the season their #2RB goes out for the year. So Black #8 was #3 to start the season. #8 Edge rusher at Eugene game went out for the year with 5-6 games to go. His replacement Daley lead the B1G in sacks within 5 games played only to injure himself right after the B1GCG jumping up to touch hands with a fan to celebrate their win. So in the Peach Bowl they have their #3 Edge Rusher starting the game #17.

But yes, overall compared to other opponents IU avoided the injury bug.

I am asking in a friendly tone to please take your annual physical and hopefully an echocardiogram (both of us are old) to make sure your heart is up for more stress since this "traveling east thing" seems to elevate your heart rate. (joking with my dry sense of humor). 😂

With the B1G now stretched out from coast to coast every team has to travel and there will never be any way around it.

10 minutes ago, iubhounds said:

I wasn't going to reply but I have to Jon ... LOL

If the UO IU 2nd game would have been in Bloomington instead of Atlanta there would not have been 30-40,000 less IU fans. They would have bought as many tickets as possible just like they did in the peach bowl. Fewer fans ?? Sure ... IU's stadium doesn't hold 56,000 so the Peach Bowl around ~77,000, there would around 21,000 less IU fans.

IU really didn't avoid the injury bug as you claim. Early in the season their #2RB goes out for the year. So Black #8 was #3 to start the season. #8 Edge rusher at Eugene game went out for the year with 5-6 games to go. His replacement Daley lead the B1G in sacks within 5 games played only to injure himself right after the B1GCG jumping up to touch hands with a fan to celebrate their win. So in the Peach Bowl they have their #3 Edge Rusher starting the game #17.

But yes, overall compared to other opponents IU avoided the injury bug.

I am asking in a friendly tone to please take your annual physical and hopefully an echocardiogram (both of us are old) to make sure your heart is up for more stress since this "traveling east thing" seems to elevate your heart rate. (joking with my dry sense of humor). 😂

With the B1G now stretched out from coast to coast every team has to travel and there will never be any way around it.

iubhounds,

Thanks so much for joining the forum. You really contribute excellent posts. I can't even begin to show my appreciation for your fan base and the awesome job Kurt Cignetti has done at the FBS level. You turned the D1 level upside down! It's clear you're here to stay as well. Yes, you definitely experienced some injury snags. Yet you still elevated your play. Even better than we did last season when we faced our set of injuries. I believe the greatest contribution your school has brough to the game is never give up. A bottom dweller just upended the whole system. And coaches now have to demonstrate their true ability to elevate programs. You can't scream talent is the difference anymore.

Thanks again for bringing even better perspective to the group.

Who do I think the Oregon Ducks are? What an interesting question, Mike!

Just my opinion:

The Ducks are an elite level CFP team, with talent 2nd to none. 2nd to none.

At this point, while the coaches have upped their in game adjustments in the regular season they have not had the answers against the eventual champion.

DL and staff were out schemed and out coached by tOSU and Cignetti and the Hoosier staff. ..

The players did not lose their talent, skills and experience. DL and his staff had no answers when the Ducks got schooled.

When that changes, the Ducks will get their Natty.

GO DUCKS!

Not sure if this was mentioned, but we can't forget that in '14/15 and in '24/25, those were the first years expanding the CFP, from 2->4 and from 4->12, both expansion years opened the door to a lower ranked Ohio State team to make the field and both years Ohio State went on to win it all. A year earlier, Ohio State would not have made the field and who know what would have happened...

My answer is I'm not sure. I've said this before, but I'm not concerned about the losses to eventual championship teams. It's the WAY they lost that concerns me and I don't know what the fix would be.

2 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

Who do I think the Oregon Ducks are? What an interesting question, Mike!

Just my opinion:

The Ducks are an elite level CFP team, with talent 2nd to none. 2nd to none.

At this point, while the coaches have upped their in game adjustments in the regular season they have not had the answers against the eventual champion.

DL and staff were out schemed and out coached by tOSU and Cignetti and the Hoosier staff. ..

The players did not lose their talent, skills and experience. DL and his staff had no answers when the Ducks got schooled.

When that changes, the Ducks will get their Natty.

GO DUCKS!

Happy,

I hate to say it, buy I believe you are correct. I love Dan Lanning. He definitely has exceeded my expectations. I thought the team was very god, but I thought there were too many holes to cover. Lupoi really, really stepped up this year. Stein is his usually perceptive self. He sees the game very well. What I believe is happening is the staff doesn't quite know what to do once they are exposed (the natural weaknesses that is-for example, the Linebackers will not be able to cover fast WRs-Cignetti blasted that weakness).

When Moore melted down initially, Lanning got his mental game back. Then Indiana parsed out what Stein wanted to do and started attacking it directly. Stein still hadn't figured out how Indiana was stunting, so he couldn't figure a solution to the pressure, and the gap weaknesses Indiana was exploiting. Indiana wasn't just being more physical, they attacked what they calculated Stein wanted to do in his game plan. Once they realized Stein wasn't going to be able to throw deep, they pounced. No back shoulder throws to compensate for lack of separation (obviously they don't practice it like Penix and Mendoza had), no conflict routes to shake the pesky corners. Stein attacked the teeth of Indiana's zone blitz, and overall zone coverage.

It seemed like Stein lost confidence in Moore's loss of confidence. He didn't protect him well either. He just gave what he saw was the most simple solution to a massive problem. I think Stein is brilliant. I personally would challenge him to change on a dime by giving him very, very tough pills to swallow in practice. I personally wouldn't want my OC to get comfortable with anything. No rigid game plans. Not at all.

Is that feasible when you have to teach players the element of the game? I don't know. I believe a coach can. But that is the hack in me talking. I should run this by coaches. I certainly would challenge the heck out of any philosophy they have, because frankly, Kurt Cignetti just exposed you don't need more than half your roster being 4 and five star players. You need to teach your kids the game. You need to keep them out of their weaknesses (like I said, Lupoi did that masterfully all season this year).

Boy, I write too many soliloquies. Thanks for the comment

1 hour ago, Sharpshooter1997 said:

My answer is I'm not sure. I've said this before, but I'm not concerned about the losses to eventual championship teams. It's the WAY they lost that concerns me and I don't know what the fix would be.

Hey Sharpshooter,

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I think Lanning gets it. I sense he allows his coordinators autonomy. Sometimes, I feel he needs to take over a bit while things are out of sync. That's just my take. It was pretty clear the semi-final game was going to be an arms race. I wasn't so concerned about running the ball. I was more concerned with getting Indiana to cover deep passes. They saw early it wasn't going to be an issue. For whatever reason.

I'm a firm believer you better start giving your QB time even if it means ONE guy runs a route. I really don't care. But again, this is a hack you're talking to. My main point is if they are going to speed up your clock, you better have a nuke that explodes in 2 seconds, or you better send your fuel jets to keep your bombers in the air longer. Either way, BOMBS BETTER START FALLING.

It has become too difficult to gain 20 plus yards running on elite teams enough to win games. Not to mention averaging 5 yards a carry. Oregon has one of the best long range throwers in the game. Hardly anyone can throw the ball as far as Dante Moore. Why waste that?