Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted November 18, 2021 - WHERE THINGS STAND TODAY AND WHERE TEAMS MAY BE GOING? NOTRE DAME - #8 finishes with Georgia Tech at home and plays its 12th and last game at Stanford. Figure the Domers to finish 11-1, be in the PO hunt and will definitely play in a NY6 Bowl. Probably, the Peach Bowl? CHAMP GAMES AS OF !1/17/21 ACC - WAKE v PITT - Winner to the Peach Bowl. B1G - OHIO STATE VS WISCONSIN - Cotton Bowl for tOSU. I think that if tOSU defeats Michigan and Michigan finishes 10-2, Michigan will go to the Rose Bowl instead of IMO, a WI team with at least 4Ls. B12 - OKLAHOMA v OKLAHOMA STATE - This would be a week-later-rematch of the end of the regular season Bedlam game in Stillwater. Both win this week and Champ game winner will go to the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams still have an outside shot at the PO. PAC-12 - OREGON v UTAH - This would be a two-week-later-rematch. If Oregon goes 12-1 it is more than likely in the PO, probably ranked 4, and playing 1 Georgia in the Orange Bowl. Utah will likely play in the Rose Bowl. But if ASU wins in Corvallis and wins vz AZ, at 9-3 ASU could be in Rose Bowl contention? SEC - GEORGIA v ALABAMA - If UGA beats Charlie South and Georgia Tech and Bama defeats Arkansas and wins at Auburn and then wins the champ game? Two 1L SEC teams will be in the Final 4. THIS puts a 12-1 Ducks at risk of being only the 2nd 12-1 P5 champ (OH ST was the other) that would be left out of the PO. What I think happens? UGA wins the title and goes to the Orange Bowl to play Oregon. Bama plays in the Sugar Bowl. NOTE - Auburn is NR but opponent #21, 7-3 Arkansas is ranked. The Bama L at #16 A+M is simply a case of Bama using its annual PO mulligan. QB Bo Nix and the Tigers #1 FG kicker, were both hurt versus Mississippi State. Both will be out for the Bama game. TJ Finley who came via portal from LSU, will start at QB Saturday at South Carolina. (Reveal: I'm down on South Carolina winning SU at +240) AAC -CINCINNATI v HOUSTON. - MAKE NO MISTAKE - This game will play a part in the teams that will be picked to advance to the final 4. Houston, currently 9-1 and ranked #24, has already won its division and has qualified for the champ game. If Cincy beats SMU at home this week it will finish 12-0. Houston will likely finish 11-1 and ranked by the Committee. Ducks v Utah - Utah will not be ranked after the Utes suffer a loss vs Oregon on Saturday. (A Hobson's Choice for the Ducks.) The AAC Champ Game will be a battle of top 25 teams. A top 25 matchup and a chance for Cincy to cement its Final 4 case. Cincy would finish with an excellent win on the road in South Bend vs top 7 or so, Notre Dame and a top 25 win in its champ game. Oregon? Will have a big win at Ohio State. A bad, bad loss at Stanford, and no other top 25 victories. To date among the competitors, the Ducks has the best win and also has the worst loss. I shutter to think what a Notre Dame team out to impress the Committee and get a Peach or Fiesta invite, or maybe even a PO invite, will do to hapless, helpless, Stanford? A comparative score of this game and the Ducks/Cardinal game will be frequently discussed during this game and afterward by the Committee? I think both 12-1 Ohio State and a 13-0 Cincinnati jump the Ducks. Ohio State's SOS will dwarf that of Oregon. And the L on The Farm will come back to bite the Ducks in its posterior when compared to an undefeated Cincy with 2 top 25 wins. The W at Notre Dame will probably finish as 2nd best win in 2021? The Committee would love to prove it is not all about the P5 and can do so by dropping a 12-1 Oregon to 4 ,but and still keep the Ducks in the Playoff? Georgia will draw a huge number of eyeballs. Oregon media wise travels very well; especially, in big. intersectional games. This would also set up a great money-ball game between 2 teams from Ohio;:Big Bro Brutis vs poor, in-state little bro. Move over Rocky! Does Cincy belong here? Will Ohio State blow Cincy out? This matchup would keep more people at home on New Year's Eve watching CFB. MY GUESSS AT THE FINAL 4? - 1. Georgia - 13-0 2. Ohio State -12-1 3. Cincinnati - 13-0 4. Oregon - 12-1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 2 Share Posted November 18, 2021 In past years even if Georgia was playing great we still felt like Alabama would beat them. But this 'Bama team is different, there's a nagging thought that Alabama isn't a Lock against Ark. or Auburn. In the words of PO Chair Barta, I think that OK. ST is more complete than is OK. who could see their season end Sooner than later. It's great to see Wake Forest be relevant for the first time since Brian Picolo told the Kansa Comet, Gale Sayers, that he played at Wake in, "Brian's Song" back in 1971. We do want OH. ST to stay unblemished except for that bloody smear inflicted upon them by the Oregon. Hey Stanford, could you do the Ducks a solid and at least be competitive against ND ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 3 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 10:31 AM, 30Duck said: In past years even if Georgia was playing great we still felt like Alabama would beat them. But this 'Bama team is different, there's a nagging thought that Alabama isn't a Lock against Ark. or Auburn. In the words of PO Chair Barta, I think that OK. ST is more complete than is OK. who could see their season end Sooner than later. It's great to see Wake Forest be relevant for the first time since Brian Picolo told the Kansa Comet, Gale Sayers, that he played at Wake in, "Brian's Song" back in 1971. We do want OH. ST to stay unblemished except for that bloody smear inflicted upon them by the Oregon. Hey Stanford, could you do the Ducks a solid and at least be competitive against ND ? Dear 30Duck, how about no? Your buddy, Coach Shaw. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 4 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 5 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Do u figure the committee considers the many obstacles that led to the loss at Stanford. I mean losing your starting safety, center and OC before the game? Then Verdel during the 3rd quarter and JT and questionable flags in the last drive to tie it? If not why not? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 6 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 8:49 AM, Duck 1972 said: Do u figure the committee considers the many obstacles that led to the loss at Stanford. I mean losing your starting safety, center and OC before the game? Then Verdel during the 3rd quarter and JT and questionable flags in the last drive to tie it? If not why not? I think based upon the committee's chair statements that they have. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 7 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 11:49 AM, Duck 1972 said: Do u figure the committee considers the many obstacles that led to the loss at Stanford. I mean losing your starting safety, center and OC before the game? Then Verdel during the 3rd quarter and JT and questionable flags in the last drive to tie it? If not why not? I think the CT does take obstacles such as the above into consideration? If not, Oregon would not be ranked #3. Arguably, 1 loss MI, MI ST, Notre Dame, Ok ST and Wake Forest all have a 'better' L than the Ducks. The W in Columbus is the Ducks golden PO ticket. What to date is the Ducks 2nd best win? Fresno? At the end of the day, if there is not another huge upset waiting to happen, the Stanford L will not be ignored or excused. If OR had more top 25 wins the game might be excused? But I expect the Ducks only top 25 win will be the W in Columbus in week 2? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 8 Share Posted November 18, 2021 As far as top 25 teams do they count the rankings at the time of the game or seasons end? It's all a popularity contest in the end anyway! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck1984 No. 9 Share Posted November 18, 2021 In my view, there is no terrible outcome for the Ducks as long as they win the Battle for Oregon and the PAC 12 championship. Sure, it would be fun to see the Ducks in the invitational semifinals, but any slip or slight serves as motivation for next year. Go Ducks! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 10 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/18/2021 at 12:23 PM, Duck1984 said: In my view, there is no terrible outcome for the Ducks as long as they win the Battle for Oregon and the PAC 12 championship. Sure, it would be fun to see the Ducks in the invitational semifinals, but any slip or slight serves as motivation for next year. Go Ducks! However, it is $6M gone. Money the conference needs today. And this team is not one that should play in the Alamo Bowl. Too talented not to win this conference. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tandaian No. 11 Share Posted November 18, 2021 I think we forget the Playoff selection committee has zero ties to ESPN. What makes anybody think this committe wants Cincinnati in? I get it is a popularity contest, but Cincy is not popular. Cincy will have only played 1 top 25 team. Only SMU and Houston will be top 30 teams. They will have played 6 teams ranked 92nd to 180th. Ducks will have played 3 top 25 games. Only 2 games with teams over 100. Pretty easy for Cincy to win all their games, when half of their schedule is against teams you can put your back ups in the 2nd half. I'm not convinced that WF or a 1 loss Big 12 team don't pass Cincy in the final rankings. SCHOOL SELECTION COMMITTEE MEMBER Arizona State Paola Boivin Colorado Rick George Georgia State Charlie Cobb Iowa Gary Barta Kansas State Gene Taylor Kentucky Mitch Barnhart NC State Boo Corrigan Notre Dame Rod West Ohio Charlie Cobb Stanford Tyrone Willingham Wyoming Tom Burman 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
