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FishDuck Article

Wither College Football (CFB) the Pac-12 and the Oregon Ducks?

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My friends this is one man’s opinion. I spent decades doing Merger and Acquisition transactions and restructuring underperforming businesses around the globe. My opinion is predicated on the realization that CFB today is a very big business. Please take my opinion for what it is worth and please feel free to disagree in the OBD forum if you believe I ...

 

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Thank you for your well written article Jon.  You presented a lot of data that is hard to ignore. 

 

"But in my experience, businesses that focus only on quarterly profits and immediate results fail far more often than do businesses with long term strategies. Especially strategies designed to increase market size and market share. Even if an acquisition dings the bottom line in the short run."

 

Excellent point to ponder!

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On 11/24/2021 at 6:36 AM, Smith72 said:

Excellent point to ponder!

 

Looking at GK, he at least seems interested in being the Pac-12 Commissioner while Larry seemed fine just sitting in his plush SF offices overseeing the destruction by inertia of the Conference of Champions...that's it, Bill Walton for Commish!!

 

GK seems to also believe that standing pat is the correct move. The Pac-12 is being run by managers of a Blockbuster while the other conferences are streaming.  Oregon is a Brand in a conference full of teams going through the motions, unrecognizable to fans in other parts of the country, we saw how much ESPN cares with the camera issue in the WSU game. 

 

Mario's recruiting numbers are even more amazing when taken in context of the numbers that Jon brought up earlier; the SEC and B1G, are NFL factories, while the Pac-12 did produce a great NFL quarterback, from of course, Oregon!

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On 11/24/2021 at 9:36 AM, Smith72 said:

Thank you for your well written article Jon.  You presented a lot of data that is hard to ignore. 

 

"But in my experience, businesses that focus only on quarterly profits and immediate results fail far more often than do businesses with long term strategies. Especially strategies designed to increase market size and market share. Even if an acquisition dings the bottom line in the short run."

 

Excellent point to ponder!

 

Thank you. This to me is the KEY issue. By standing pat the Pac-12 is 'stuck' in its current footprint. If the Pac-12 decides to expand in the future where can it go? No Mountain West team expands the Pac-12's market place. New teams from the Mountain West simply overlap the existing footprint. No Mountain West team comes close to spending the money on football that Oregon spends and none make the income made by Pac-12 programs.

 

Why would Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin consider leaving the lucrative B1G for the Pac-12?

 

And as I noted, the four schools I identify as expansion candidates have very good basketball programs. Not so long ago Texas Tech won the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

I just don't 'get' the Pac-12's long term strategy? If, it even has a strategy.

 

 

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On 11/24/2021 at 10:52 AM, 30Duck said:

 

Looking at GK, he at least seems interested in being the Pac-12 Commissioner while Larry seemed fine just sitting in his plush SF offices overseeing the destruction by inertia of the Conference of Champions...that's it, Bill Walton for Commish!!

 

GK seems to also believe that standing pat is the correct move. The Pac-12 is being run by managers of a Blockbuster while the other conferences are streaming.  Oregon is a Brand in a conference full of teams going through the motions, unrecognizable to fans in other parts of the country, we saw how much ESPN cares with the camera issue in the WSU game. 

 

Mario's recruiting numbers are even more amazing when taken in context of the numbers that Jon brought up earlier; the SEC and B1G, are NFL factories, while the Pac-12 did produce a great NFL quarterback, from of course, Oregon!

 

Thanks 30. As I mentioned before when considering the obstacles in front of him Mario Cristobal is the best recruiter in the nation.

 

GK talks the talk but to date, he seems to taking the same walk as did Larry?  First, why fight PO expansion when your conference does not, year after year, qualify for the PO? 

 

Adding a P5 PO game? In 2022 Oregon plays Georgia and BYU OOC. To add another P5 OOC game would mean dropping E. Washington for say, North Carolina? And adding another P5 opponent  when playing 9 conference games is senseless.

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On 11/24/2021 at 5:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

My friends this is one man’s opinion. I spent decades doing Merger and Acquisition transactions and restructuring underperforming businesses around the globe. My opinion is predicated on the realization that CFB today is a very big business. Please take my opinion for what it is worth and please feel free to disagree in the OBD forum if you believe I ...

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Thanks for the wonderful editorial assistance.

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Jon, any chance that academic prowess schools in the PAC 12 leave to form their own league, freeing up the remaining schools to join the WAC?

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Great analysis and things to ponder. It seems like the Pac-12 is playing checkers while the rest of college football is playing chess.

 

At least we aren't just shooting skeet off a yacht, while the rest were playing chess, like we were under Larry.

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On 11/24/2021 at 8:17 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I just don't 'get' the Pac-12's long term strategy? If, it even has a strategy.

 

    Jon, I think the Pac-12 is getting close!

giphy.gif

 

You describe the problems and back it up with facts like few, if anyone.  I appreciate the article!

Mr. FishDuck

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On 11/24/2021 at 11:46 AM, Duck1984 said:

Jon, any chance that academic prowess schools in the PAC 12 leave to form their own league, freeing up the remaining schools to join the WAC?

 

I hope not? But AAU member schools Oregon, UW, Stanford and USC leaving for the B1G would be just ducky. Add Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin to form the B1G W Division.

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On 11/24/2021 at 12:02 PM, Charles Fischer said:

 

    Jon, I think the Pac-12 is getting close!

giphy.gif

 

You describe the problems and back it up with facts like few, if anyone.  I appreciate the article!

 

LOL! Thanks Charles. I do think the P-12 is in trouble and I'm not kitten around.

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On 11/24/2021 at 11:39 AM, 30Duck said:

 

BINGO JON WILNER! The Pac-12 as currently constituted is being left in the financial dust. 

 

Me thinks Bob Bowlsby and the B12 would be happy to bring OR, UW, USC, AZ, ASU and CU on board? This would form a coast to coast conference. A conference with huge market size.

 

Add OK ST, KS and K ST to the 'Pac-12 6' to form a W division?

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On 11/24/2021 at 9:12 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Me thinks Bob Bowlsby and the B12 would be happy to bring OR, UW, USC, AZ, ASU and CU on board? This would form a coast to coast conference. A conference with huge market size.

 

Add OK ST, KS and K ST to the 'Pac-12 6' to form a W division?

 

 That makes so much sen$e, change for the good. Big innovative thinking, sadly that makes it doomed from the start?

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Mario is going to have a very difficult time turning down an offer from Florida? He has to be high on UF's list? Looks like Tucker and Franklin are off the table and I doubt that Fickell and family want to leave the Midwest?  Lincoln Riley has said 'No' to LSU. With OK headed to the SEC I see no reason why Riley would want the UF job?

 

Aranda, having successfully coached in SEC at LSU might move the UF needle?  I don't see Iowa State's Matt Campbell in the mix.

 

Mario is one of the last big names on the board and UF can easily double his salary.

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