2024/2025 Media Negotiations- Hey Big 12, Let's Make a Deal?

[Jon Joseph]

As has been widely reported, come 2023, the new B1G media deals are projected to bring in $1B a year for the B!G. That is B1G money. Add to that the income from the very successful B1G Network, 51% owned by and operated by FOX, and other sources of income including the CFB Playoff and the CBB Tournament and by 2025, each one of the 14 member B1G schools is expected to collect $100M a year.

 

The SEC has already done a deal with ESPN for its tier 1 and 2 media rights. What CBS was paying $55M a year for, ESPN will be paying $300M+ for the same media rights. The exact number of the increase will be determined when Oklahoma and Texas officially join the SEC. The SEC also has a very profitable network operated by the ESPN media cartel. And the SEC has scored and will continue to score significant dollars from the Playoff and its 6NY Bowls, and also, after putting an emphasis on basketball 3 seasons ago, from the CBB tournament. The SEC will not equal the amount earned by the B1G but it will come darn close.

 

The ACC is saddled with a terrible media deal that runs through 2036. Each ACC team receives $17M a year from ESPN for the ACC's tier 1 and 2 media rights. The deal with ESPN can only increase if Notre Dame becomes a full time football member of the ACC. Something that Notre Dame, especially with its own deal with NBC, has no desire to do. The ACC does benefit from its successful network that is also operated by ESPN, but it will at least through 2036,  come nowhere near what the B1G and the SEC are bringing in.

 

The Pac-12's new media rights deal will come to fruition in 2024. As we all are aware, the Pac-12 network, owned and operated by the conference has never met even the lowest amount of revenue that was projected when the the network was formed and capitalized by Pac-12 member schools. The Pac-12 does benefit from getting 1 team into the CFB Playoff and from the CBB Tournament. But lags behind the B1G and SEC in CFB Playoff participation and revenues and often makes less than the two conferences make off of the CBB Tournament. And unlike the B1G and the SEC, the Pac-12 does not feature large stadiums that are filled to capacity for B1G/SEC football games.

 

B12 media rights come up for re-negotiation in 2025. Obviously, the media rights to Oklahoma and Texas sports will be dearly missed. But in saving the B12, commissioner Bob Bowlsby (former AD at Iowa and Stanford) brought in a national brand in BYU, the huge Houston market, a decent sized Cincinnati market and the Orlando market that has just eclipsed the Miami market in size.

 

In my opinion, having decided not to expand and thus coming to the market with the same goods Larry Scott came with close to a decade ago, and being a non-entity in the CFB Playoff, it certainly could not hurt the Pac-12 or the B12, if Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was to reach out to Bowlsby and offer the following deal. The Pac-12 will go to the market independently, but also go to the market to secure a bid based on the Pac-12 and its markets merging with the B12 markets. Make the effort to collectively sell both conference's media rights. What can the conferences expect to make independently compared to what might be earned collectively? This investigation could be done program by program to determine what each member school individually brings to the market. Accordingly, revenue could be shared based on a given school's financial impact. 

 

A merger of the two conferences would also take the CFB P5 to the P4. Among other things this would help facilitate a needed expansion of the CFB playoff field. A Pac-12 division and a B12 division under the same umbrella would limit travel for basketball and non-revenue sports. Should the media numbers not add value collectively, the Pac-12 and the B12 would each do its own media deal. 

 

Unless the Pac-12 and the B12 merge in one fashion or another, there is no way either conference will come close to the income that will be brought in by the B1G and the SEC. And such a merger could well make the Pac-12/B12 Network financially viable? Perhaps bring enough subscribers to the network to interest a media partner in buying all or a share of the Pac-12/B12 network and operating same on a professional level?

 

I see nothing but potentially potentially positive results coming from collectively going exploring a combined media deal. As noted above, if the money isn't there collectively, it isn't there and each conference can remain as-is.

 

Is this topic as sexy as pondering the outcome of Oregon football in the 2022 season? Heck no! But CFB/CBB is a big business and unless something is done to dramatically improve Pac-12 finances the very existence of the conference is at risk.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Jon, great take and you know I stand with you. The PAC and B12 should follow the advice of this time honored saying, "United we stand, divided we fall.

 

Should they merge or work collectively to improve their media rights dollars.? Yes they should......

 

Will they merge or work collectively to improve their media rights dollars? No the probably won't.....

 

Why not? My guess the PAC 12 presidents will take a pass.

 

Why will they pass? Let's take a short review to answer that.

 

1. Back in the very beginning the PAC Conference and PAC Network was offered by the Networks to partner together. The PAC Presidents said no to a media partnership. They felt they could build a successful media sports network. With their giant egos, unrivaled arrogance and academic prowess they wanted to prove to the other conferences that they could build a network. Without the help of people who knew how to do it. The PAC Presidents wanted all the money. No sharing with others. Ask yourself,  how did that work out for all 12 members?

 

2. Once the PAC Network was up and running they couldn't market the Network to all the giant cable networks. The number of eyeball's watching was limited. The coverage became regional. Thus advertisers paid the Network less dollars for less eyeballs. At least the 12 Presidents didn't have to share their limited revenues. 

 

3. The 12 Presidents made what I consider the first of 3 major decisions that may prove fatal to some of the current conference members: FIrst, they hired and took advice from Larry. Second, when Larry's advice and direction failed they kept him in charge way to long. Third, after firing Larry and hiring GK, they are failing to admit their mistakes and move forward with help. The decisions are still being made by 12 presidents not qualified to make these types of decisions. 

 

4. Then when the SEC handed the PAC Conference, PAC Network and 12 closed minded presidents a way out, the 12 dwarfs said no.  They said no to giving the B-12 a life jacket or life line  The PAC presidents didn't want to merge and felt the conference was in a position of strength as it currently stands. WTH............

They didn't want to make less money. OBD Forum don't be fooled by that bull.... The PAC was in control of the entire situation. No revenues will change or would have changed until Texas and OU headed to the SEC. The PAC presidents failed to see that now the PAC will need a life jacket or life line.

 

5. The 12 presidents failed to learn from their mistakes. When given a chance to add millions of eyeballs from coast to coast, they said no. When given a chance to expand the footprint, they said no. When given the chance to save the network by giving advertisers more eye balls they said no. The arrogant, unqualified 12 members of the brain trust said NO......

 

Based on their past decision making why would they now say, yes?

[Jon Joseph]

No. my friend, I reluctantly and unfortunately would say 'no' and not 'yes.'

 

And most excellent point on the Pac-12 moving to the Pac-20 costing any existing Pac-12 conference any money. The Pac-12 would have raised Houston from the G5, 'saved' a number of the left-over B12 members with an entry to what should have been the P4 .The conference would have been able to negotiate, like the B1G did with Maryland, Nebraska and Rutgers, a phased in equal piece of the pie.

 

To argue otherwise is a complete red herring.  Pac-12 member schools are not all AAU members. Utah was not an AAU member, it is now, when it joined the conference. And before deciding to stand still, GK made note that AAU membership would not be a requirement to join the Pac-12. Whom is cutting GK's legs out from under him? The same Pac-12 'leader' who decided to launch a media network without a media partner and without key distribution placements in place.

 

Is not doing the same thing and expecting a different result a definition of 'insanity?' How with the same media footprint do the folks in charge believe their investment in the network can be saved? Are they this clueless or do they just not care? Big goes to big in big business. CFB is a big business. Why Oregon and USC, programs that spend significant money on CFB, would hang in with a conference destined to fail as-is, is beyond me? 

 

Is there is a collective way out of here? If not, then the Pac-12 money teams should say goodbye to the jokers 'free riding' on their backs; at least attempt to relocate to a place where the partners still want to be a king. 

 

 

 

[Duck 1972]

On 2/20/2022 at 3:51 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon, great take and you know I stand with you. The PAC and B12 should follow the advice of this time honored saying, "United we stand, divided we fall.

 

Should they merge or work collectively to improve their media rights dollars.? Yes they should......

 

Will they merge or work collectively to improve their media rights dollars? No the probably won't.....

 

Why not? My guess the PAC 12 presidents will take a pass.

 

Why will they pass? Let's take a short review to answer that.

 

1. Back in the very beginning the PAC Conference and PAC Network was offered by the Networks to partner together. The PAC Presidents said no to a media partnership. They felt they could build a successful media sports network. With their giant egos, unrivaled arrogance and academic prowess they wanted to prove to the other conferences that they could build a network. Without the help of people who knew how to do it. The PAC Presidents wanted all the money. No sharing with others. Ask yourself,  how did that work out for all 12 members?

 

2. Once the PAC Network was up and running they couldn't market the Network to all the giant cable networks. The number of eyes balls watching was limited. The coverage became regional. Thus advertisers paid the Network less dollars for less eyeballs. At least the 12 Presidents didn't have to share their limited revenues. 

 

3. The 12 Presidents made what I consider the first of 3 major decisions that may prove fatal to some of the current conference members: FIrst, they hired and took advice from Larry. Second, when Larry's advice and direction failed they kept him in charge way to long. Third, after firing Larry and hiring GK, they are failing to admit their mistakes and move forward with help. The decisions are still being made by 12 presidents not qualified to make these types of decisions. 

 

4. Then when the SEC handed the PAC Conference, PAC Network and 12 closed minded presidents a way out, the 12 dwarfs said no.  They said no to giving the B-12 a life jacket or life line  The PAC presidents didn't want to merge and felt the conference was in a position of strength as it currently stands. WTH............

They didn't want to make less money. OBD Forum don't be fooled by that bull.... The PAC was in control of the entire situation. No revenues will change or would have changed until Texas and OU headed to the SEC. The PAC presidents failed to see that now the PAC will need a life jacket or life line.

 

5. The 12 presidents failed to learn from their mistakes. When given a chance to add millions of eyeballs from coast to coast, they said no. When given a chance to expand the footprint, they said no. When given the chance to save the network by giving advertisers more eye balls they said no. The arrogant, unqualified 12 members of the brain trust said NO......

 

Based on their past decision making why would they now say, yes?

Amazing post, Happy. So many detailed points that I believe are the truth. You can't peel the onion any further. 

 

My solution would be to create more divisions. You have the B1G and SEC in one. The ACC, us and big 12 in an Alliance. Teams can move up or down by merit.

 

Kind of like the pod example stated in earlier posts on other topics in the same vein as this one. Nothing else changes although tweaks might occur. I don't see any other way to level the playing field.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/20/2022 at 7:33 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Amazing post, Happy. So many detailed points that I believe are the truth. You can't peel the onion any further. 

 

My solution would be to create more divisions. You have the B1G and SEC in one. The ACC, us and big 12 in an Alliance. Teams can move up or down by merit.

 

Kind of like the pod example stated in earlier posts on other topics in the same vein as this one. Nothing else changes although tweaks might occur. I don't see any other way to level the playing field.

Love the idea. But cooperation among 2 conferences is difficult and for the P5 to cooperate when 2 have 'all' the money? I don't see it. After all, the ACC. B1G and Pac-12, notwithstanding GK's post, just voted to leave multi-millions of dollars on a financially ripe playoff expansion table.

 

Geographically, the merger of the 'lesser' 3 that makes some semblance of sense. I can see a possible accord between the Pac-12 and the B12. I believe the ACC with its playoff recalcitrance has set itself up to be poached by the SEC and perhaps, the B1G.

 

I do not believe the SEC in particular, has any desire to level the playing field. If it did so desire to do so it would not have poached OK and TX.

 

I think the B1G ultimately expands east, Kansas, Pitt, UVA, UNC, Georgia Tech, Duke, all AAU members; or, west with UW, OR, Stanford, USC, CU and Utah, all AAU members. I hope that Oregon is at least sub rosa, discussing with the B1G the B1G moving west  

 

I just do not see USC having finally opened the Blue Blood pocket book hanging in and sharing equal money with WA ST and others not equally CFB invested. IMO, the Pac-12 money teams. including the Ducks, must find a more lucrative place to play, including considering a merger of some kind with the B12 and going coast-to-coast.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[HappyToBeADuck]

Duck 1972 I like your solution about creating more divisions as a possible solution.

 

Jon posted an in-depth article awhile back that was a long, boring difficult read to follow. Since my first wife prepared me to handle difficult and boring, I was able to work my way thru it. It was a snapshot into what is coming this August when the schools meet.

 

Divisions are coming. The SEC can invite more schools to join and form their very own division.  The P-5 can completely shut out the G-5 schools. The SEC, BIG, BIG12 and ACC can shut out the PAC, if they want to. Will they? I just don't know 

 

I am open to anyone on this great forum to share with me how a merger with The B-12 and PAC 12 would weaken our position.  Either a single 24 team conference or 2-12 team divisions as one conference. Hec they could have their own semi-final game, then a title game. Winner to the CFP.

 

Not to long ago, a competitor took 4 small accounts from our customer base. Its business and how competition works in America. They were so proud and boasting to a very large 5 store account they serviced that they had taken these accounts from us. At that same moment the very large 5 store account notified our competitor that they were switching to us. 

 

Point is, in business you keep working 24/7, 365 to improve your company. Make things better for your customers. Out work, out smart, out maneuver your competition.  Do you feel the 12 dwarfs are making things better for the AD'S, players and fans?

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/20/2022 at 8:23 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Duck 1972 I like your solution about creating more divisions as a possible solution.

 

Jon posted an I depth article awhile back that was a long, boring difficult read to follow. Since my first wife prepared me to handle difficult and boring, I was able to work my way thru it. It was a snapshot into what is coming this August when the schools meet.

 

Divisions are coming. The SEC can invite more schools to join and form their very own division.  The P-5 can completely shut out the G-5 schools. The SEC, BIG, BIG12 and ACC can shut out the PAC, if they want to. Will they? I just don't know 

 

I am open to anyone on this great forum to share with me how a merger with The B-12 and PAC 12 would weaken our position.  Either a single 24 team conference or 2-12 team divisions as one conference. Hec they could have their own semi-final game, then a title game. Winner to the CFP.

 

Not to long ago, a competitor took 4 small accounts from our customer base. Its business and how competition works in America.They were so proud and boasting to a very large 5 store account they serviced that they had taken these accounts from us. At that same moment the very large 5 store account notified our competitor that they were switching to us. 

 

Point is, in business you keep working 24/7, 365 to improve your company. Make things better for your customers. Out work, out smart, out maneuver your competition.  Do you feel the 12 dwarfs are making things better for the AD'S, players and fans?

 

I apologize for my writing being difficult to read; I get it. This is not the most 'sexy' issue to write about. But IMO it is the most important issue that Oregon and its 'partners' face today. Totally agree not only with your valid criticism of my authorship but also with a B12/Pac-12 merger being the way to save CFB form becoming the P2.

 

I know I am a pest and a pestilence regarding this topic, but as to the Pac-12's ultimate survival as a big time CFB player it will come down to money.

 

I hope the 2nd wife is as forgiving of my scribing inscrutability as was the first?

 

Spot regarding any business. You stand still and you fall behind.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[Charles Fischer]

Jon...I don't think that HTBAD above was referring to your writing being boring, but the article that you posted here from somewhere else. I love the writing from both of you!

[30Duck]

On 2/20/2022 at 5:32 PM, Jon Joseph said:

a B12/Pac-12 merger being the way to save CFB form becoming the P2.

 

It's the only way. The problem I see with the Pac-12 vs the other conferences is what we've known for a long time. The SEC, B1G, Big12, ACC, all its fans, school Presidents care a lot more about college sports than do their counterparts in the Pac-12. 

 

For a while it didn't matter as much, and USC was in a position to where it could carry the conference. Then Chip arrived and Oregon became a Brand. But the SEC saw what was happening. College football was devolving into entertainment, and the money exploded.

 

Not enough of the schools in the Pac-12 care as much about competing as do Oregon and USC. Nothing against Washington Coach DeBoer, but he's not Riley or Lanning. 

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Jon, you didn't write that article. You posted an article from a national writer with knowledge of the NCAA and what is coming. My apologies if I gave the impression it was your writing. I should have been more clear to all.

 

Sorry, sorry, sorry. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea culpa.

 

Jon your topics, articles and post are awesome. This topic is not sexy, glamorous or fun. But it is relevant to the truth before us. The absolute foundation of college football is changing.  Vision, forward thinking and bold moves are part of the horizon. Oh how I miss PAC 12:30 pm kick offs on ABC.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/20/2022 at 8:38 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Jon...I don't think that HTBAD above was referring to your writing being boring, but the article that you posted here from somewhere else. I love the writing of both of you!

Charles, I am perfectly fine with everything in HTBAD's comment. When it comes to this subject I am a pest and perhaps, a pestilence? But it all comes down to dollars. As is, I fear for the of Oregon's future more than I fear for the future of the Pac-12.

 

Thank goodness, at least regarding my verbose, wandering takes, that wife one showed him the way through my ponderous posts. 

 

Love the forum and love HTBAD.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/20/2022 at 8:46 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon, you didn't write that article. You posted an article from a national writer with knowledge of the NCAA and what is coming. My apologies if I gave the impression it was your writing. I should have been more clear to all.

 

Sorry, sorry, sorry. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea culpa.

 

Jon your topics, articles and post are awesome. This topic is not sexy, glamorous or fun. But it is relevant to the truth before us. The absolute foundation of college football is changing.  Vision, forward thinking and bold moves are part of the horizon. Oh how I miss PAC 12:30 pm kick offs on ABC.

 

Apology not accepted. Tomorrow, twenty paces apart at sunrise. I choose the throwing of rotten tomatoes. You are in trouble. My second is Larry Scott!

 

NO apologizes whatsoever needed my good Ducks buddy.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Jon, your comment about fearing for Oregons future more than the future of the P-12 Conference raises one of the ultimate questions for the OBD Forum and Duck fans ...

 

Where would Ducks sports be without Phil and Penny's generous support and donations?

 

Would we look like Oregon State, California or Colorado athletics? Good grief to that thought.....

 

Would world class athletes come to Oregon? Would our profile been high enough or the facilities the best in all collegiate sports to attract Sabrina, Thibs, the Sewell family, et all?

 

After all to the long time Grey Beards we didn't sniff any national aspirations in the 20th century. Once Phil and Penny committed to provide Oregon with what it needed to be a National Brand then things changed.

 

Can we expect Arizona, ASU, Colorado, California, Stanford, UCLA WSU  and OSU to get to that level without a donor like the Knights?

 

It takes dollars, big dollars, millions of dollars to get to where Oregon is at.  The 12 Presidents should recognize that TV dollars are their best answer. GK even called out each schools to raise an extra $20-$30 million per year to close the gap. Well what if it's not there, year in and year out?

 

Well you Arrogant, sell righteous, pompous......, improve your brand and negotiate it thru the media rights. Negotiate as if the conference survival depends on it, because it does.....

[Duck 1972]

Obviously the presidents have spoken they don't care about sports. Period!  

 

I believe the time difference is a big problem for any kind of merging by the PAC. The late show hurts us nationally. The lack of eyes and attendance means less interest therefore less money. What TV enterprises are going to pay us anywhere close to SEC/B1G to be able to compete with them. No merger will change this fact IMHO.

 

To me when you try to swim up a waterfall all you get is wet. Therefore you change how you go about it and portage around it. 

 

The SEC is going to poach Clemson FSU and possibly Miami. What will the rest of the ACC going to do to keep playing CFB, the same with the bigger schools in the Big 12 and PAC. 

 

Again the only solution is to do an Alliance/Divisions/leagues. At least it would level playing field as to amount of money each school will have, which should allow for better competition on the field of play.

 

Since money is what is doing the driving and always has and it has been discussed how this isn't going to change we are left with where we already are.

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/20/2022 at 9:19 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon, your comment about fearing for Oregons future more than the future of the P-12 Conference raises one of the ultimate questions for the OBD Forum and Duck fans ...

 

Where would Ducks sports be without Phil and Penny's generous support and donations?

 

Would we look like Oregon State, California or Colorado athletics? Good grief to that thought.....

 

Would world class athletes come to Oregon? Would our profile been high enough or the facilities the best in all collegiate sports to attract Sabrina, Thibs, the Sewell family, et all?

 

After all to the long time Grey Beards we didn't sniff any national aspirations in the 20th century. Once Phil and Penny committed to provide Oregon with what it needed to be a National Brand then things changed.

 

Can we expect Arizona, ASU, Colorado, California, Stanford, UCLA WSU  and OSU to get to that level without a donor like the Knights?

 

It takes dollars, big dollars, millions of dollars to get to where Oregon is at.  The 12 Presidents should recognize that TV dollars are their best answer. GK even called out each schools to raise an extra $20-$30 million per year to close the gap. Well what if it's not there, year in and year out?

 

Well you Arrogant, sell righteous, pompous......, improve your brand and negotiate it thru the media rights. Negotiate as if the conference survival depends on it, because it does.....

If there was but any other way besides the Pac-12 doing something without the B12 for the conference to make it, I'm in.

 

But the truth of the matter is that the conference started a downward spiral and the SEC an upward spiral when the conference threw the Rose Bowl into the BCS mix for trinkets. Instead of being OK with co-champion CFB number 1s at year's end, the conference allowed SEC commissioner Roy Kramer and his BCS to begin the move toward CFB being entirely monetized and the SEC in particular, becoming the NFL's minor league.

 

The B1G has not only tradition but a HUGE number of alumni that allows it to hang with and even exceed the SEC when it comes to money. The Pac-12 does not have this luxury.

 

GK cannot force schools that do want to or cannot spend the money needed to be spent to be a player in big time CFB; to spend the money required to do so. And for WA ST, OR ST, etc. to have the same vote on issues that go to the core of conference strength as do Oregon and USC? Senseless.

 

The problem. No matter how good, enticing and seductive the sales person may be,  the salesperson only has the goods he/she can bring to the market to sell. I'm certain that all of the Pac-12 powers-that-be want to have a great media deal but many of these 'leaders' are not willing or able to spend the money to bring home a big time media deal. These are the people who have propped up a functionally insolvent network for a decade plus.

 

Where is Phil Knight in all of 'this?' Where is Schill? Where are the leaders at USC? IMO, Oregon, USC and other money ball players in the Pac-12 should wait before pledging their media rights to the conference, wait until the bottom line of a new media deal is known. Otherwise, you are signing a contract without knowing the terms of the deal.

 

 I reiterate when I say a 'merger' of some kind with the B12; or, Oregon and USC and other hopefully a few other attractive Pac-12 candidates joining the B1G, is the 'only way out of here.' 

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 2/20/2022 at 5:54 PM, Jon Joseph said:

My second is Larry Scott!

Then you are a goner!

 

      Depend on your Buddy!

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/20/2022 at 10:30 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Then you are a goner!

 

      Depend on your Buddy!

Thankfully, Larry is a goner; but not soon enough.