Pac-12 - What Now Regarding CFB Scheduling?

[Jon Joseph]

CFB has had 8 Playoffs contested to date. No school that played 9 conference games has won a championship.

 

In 2019, had Oregon played Portland State at home in the penultimate game of the regular season and not tripped to ASU for the 4th cross-division and 9th conference game, Oregon, playing with Justin Herbert at QB, would have been a Final 4 lock.

 

The Playoff's current 4 team field will be with us through the 2025 season. 

 

In anticipation of adding an annual out-of-conference game versus an ACC opponent or a B1G opponent, Pac-12 commissioner George Klaivkoff expressed a desire for the conference to play 8 and not 9 conference games. However, dropping the 9th game was predicated on the B1G also going from 9 to 8 conference games. This isn't happening.

 

The B1G will be staying at 9 conference games. B1G Commissioner Kevin Warren hasn't said so, but Ohio State AD Gene Smith, has said so. When Ohio State speaks, the B1G listens.

 

Is going to 8 conference games with a possible OOC game versus an ACC team financially viable for the Pac-12 conference? I don't believe so. I believe the conference will stay at 9 conference games in order to provide the best game inventory it can offer when the conference media rights are rebid in 2024. 

 

Oklahoma and Texas will be joining the SEC. When this happens all CFB 'experts' expect that the SEC will go from 8 to 9 conference games every year, with the ACC likely to follow suit. At 8 conference games the Pac-12 would then find itself on a P5 scheduling island.

 

But the above doesn't mean the conference should sit still scheduling-wise, even before the CFB Playoff field most likely expands to a 12 team field in 2026. (The field is anticipated to be made up of all P5 champions, a G5 representative and 6 at-large teams. The top 4 ranked teams will likely have a first round bye.)

 

The B1G has indicated that it intends to drop divisions while remaining at 9 conference games. The SEC is likely to do the same when Oklahoma and Texas come on board. Why? Because with 6 at large teams making a 12 team playoff field, the B1G/SEC want to assure that its Conference Championship game features the two best teams in the conference. Such a format would prevent a 3 or 4 loss 'outlier' division winner from 'sneaking into' a playoff spot with a win in the championship game and thereby possibly knocking out a more worthy at large team.

 

In my opinion and especially with the Pac-12 most likely to remain at 9 conference games, the Pac-12 should drop divisions as soon as practicable, while assuring that conference rivalry games are played every season.

 

If the Pac-12 drops divisions, I believe the best option for the conference would be to go to pods, with each pod member playing the other three pod members every season.

 

South Pod - Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah

 

California Pod - CAL, Stanford, UCLA, USC

 

North Pod - Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State 

 

This would mean 3 games versus pod members every season, 6 additional conference games played rotationally, and 3 OOC games. 

 

The final game of the regular season would be Championship Week. Teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 would play in Las Vegas. Team No. 12 would play at team No. 3, No. 11 at No. 4, etc. This would assure that the conference does not produce an 'outlier' champion, while also assuring that teams with better records would be rewarded with an additional home game. The teams with the better record would be odds-on to win the final game and provide the best opportunity for more than one CFB Playoff team. This format would also likely produce the highest number of bowl eligible teams.

 

Rivalry games would be played on the penultimate weekend of the regular season. This is not that unusual today, with Stanford playing CAL and USC playing UCLA, before the final home game with Notre Dame every other season.

 

The Championship Week format would also provide an extra idle weekend before Playoff games commence. With a 12 team field, 1st round Playoff games will be played prior to December 31st or January 1st. An extra week off to get healthy and game plan for the upcoming opponent would not hurt the conference's Playoff cause.

 

One last of thought? If all P5 champs are in a 12 team CFB Playoff field, then still drop divisions but play 2 games OOC and 10 conference games, with all rivalry games protected. The conference champion would be decided at the conclusion of the regular season and not in a 13th Championship game. However, this format depending on the 'quality' of the 3rd OOC opponent, could hurt Playoff seeding?

 

What are your thoughts in regards to future conference scheduling?

Edited March 30, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[30Duck]

On 3/30/2022 at 10:20 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

What are your thoughts in regards to future conference scheduling?

I can't do anything but thank you for Jon, for thinking this out and presenting it to us. The Pac-12 is in a position now when changing for change sake is the only option. On the simplest level getting rid of the divisions should have been done long ago given the domination by the North.

 

 

[Duck 1972]

Hopefully the PAC has some forward thinkers like Jon and get this thing going stating next year.

[Tandaian]

Hopefully, B1G, Pac 12 and Big 12 all make it a requirement of the playoffs for every conference to play the same number of conference games.  

[NJDuck]

I like what Jon is presenting. 

 

I agreed with Jon when he said awhile back the Pac12 and Big12 should have combined into one conference when that opportunity arisen back when Oklahoma and Texas jumped ship.  This would have given both conferences a greater chance of bringing in big revenue and a bigger say at the table due to a huge geographic coverage.  But, that ship has passed.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/31/2022 at 12:48 PM, NJDuck said:

I like what Jon is presenting. 

 

I agreed with Jon when he said awhile back the Pac12 and Big12 should have combined into one conference when that opportunity arisen back when Oklahoma and Texas jumped ship.  This would have given both conferences a greater chance of bringing in big revenue and a bigger say at the table due to a huge geographic coverage.  But, that ship has passed.

 

 

The time when the Pac-12 could have poached left over B12 teams is over. I still think it makes sense for the 2 conferences to explore what their combined media rights would be worth?

 

A merger today would bring about the Pac-8 division, the Pac-12 before AZ, ASU, CU and Utah came on board and 2 additional 8 team divisions. Such a merger with provide a hope for Larry's network not only to survive but thrive.

 

As is, I do not see any opportunity for the Pac-12 to close the financial gap between it and the B1G and the SEC. Going coast-to-coast with the B12 would not bring in B1G/SEC revenues but it close the gap. Plus, it would be easier to design an expanded playoff with a P4 instead of a P5.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Jon thanks for continuing to provide your in depth thoughts and feelings about the state of the PAC. Love your passion.

 

The inexplicable decision to not act when the remnants of the BIG 12 were in desperate need of a helping partner still leaves the taste of a vomit burp in my mouth. Or thoughts of my ex.

 

On this forum many wanted that merger while many did not. Lots of pros and cons. No real right answer. What mattered most was what would the Networks think about a 4 time zone mega conference? It appears the PAC Academic Brain Trust didnt even try to find out. GEEZ.......

 

IMHO, the one way that the PAC can increase the value of its media rights is to win big time, high profile games.

 

     Oregon beat Georgia

     Utah beat Florida

     USC beat Notre Dame

     Stop losing to no names

     Stop losing bowl games

     Get a team in the 2022 CFP

     USC or Utah or Oregon

     win the Natty in 2023-2024

 

ESPN, FOX, ABC and CBS will give the PAC respect and money when they earn it. Stop talking about it and get it done. Winning the Natty will drive eyeballs to the conference. It will keep California 5 stars out west. Advertisers pay for winners. Lets play to win it all.

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/1/2022 at 12:43 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon thanks for continuing to provide your in depth thoughts and feelings about the state of the PAC. Love your passion.

 

The inexplicable decision to not act when the remnants of the BIG 12 were in desperate need of a helping partner still leaves the taste of a vomit burp in my mouth. Or thoughts of my ex.

 

On this forum many wanted that merger while many did not. Lots of pros and cons. No real right answer. What mattered most was what would the Networks think about a 4 time zone mega conference? It appears the PAC Academic Brain Trust didnt even try to find out. GEEZ.......

 

IMHO, the one way that the PAC can increase the value of its media rights is to win big time, high profile games.

 

     Oregon beat Georgia

     Utah beat Florida

     USC beat Notre Dame

     Stop losing to no names

     Stop losing bowl games

     Get a team in the 2022 CFP

     USC or Utah or Oregon

     win the Natty in 2023-2024

 

ESPN, FOX, ABC and CBS will give the PAC respect and money when they earn it. Stop talking about it and get it done. Winning the Natty will drive eyeballs to the conference. It will keep California 5 stars out west. Advertisers pay for winners. Lets play to win it all.

No doubt winning the big games, a majority of the bowl games, getting 2 teams into NY6 bowls and winning a CFB playoff title would make a big difference. Especially in the number of subscribers to the network and better distribution for the network.

 

But the impediments to this kind of success are daunting.

 

1. No school that played 9 conference games has ever won a playoff championship.

 

2. Only 2 Pac-12 schools, Oregon and USC, spend SEC/B1G-like money on recruiting. And Oregon spends one third of what Georgia spends on recruiting.

 

3. See 2 above; the recruiting numbers in the Pac-12 for the most part are terrible.

 

4. The SEC in particular sends far more guys onto the NFL than does the Pac-12; especially, at the non-skill player positions.

 

5. Pac-12 programs, again with the exception of Oregon and SC (and OR as we know has lost many the CFB HC recently) cannot compete salary-wise for top CFB coaches. Wazzu had no shot at keeping Leach. Ditto CU not being able to keep Mel Tucker.

 

6. A Tennessee 'collective' just paid $8M for a 5* QB's NIL rights,  and the player's commitment to play at Tennessee. A TX A+M 'collective' just paid millions of dollars to untested HS kids and signed the highest rated recruiting class in the history of CFB. 

 

7. For the most part interest in CFB in the southeast and in B1G country is far greater than in the Pac-12 footprint.

 

8. The Pac-12 network is a financially insolvent non-entity that hurts and does not help CFB recruiting. Yet, the Pac-12 turned down a sale of the network to ESPN. Without expanding market size, how can the network be expected to move into the black?

 

9. How many Pac-12 conference administrations truly give a whip whether the conference wins CFB/CBB money ball titles? The UCLA athletic department is $60M in the red and receives no general funding from the school. 

 

10. HOWEVER, I do believe that Oregon and USC have the $ and the support to win a CFB title. But you cannot win a CFB title, at least prior to 2026, unless you make the Final 4. No Pac-12 team has done so since 2016.

 

Enjoy Oregon sports. Oregon sports are enjoyable. The fans give a whip, Phil Knight gives a whip and hopefully, the administration has its eye on the ball and will not ipso facto assign its media rights to the conference's next media deal without first knowing the parameters of said deal.